Large Sample Theory for Semiparametric Regression Models with Two-Phase, Outcome Dependent Sampling

Outcome-dependent, two-phase sampling designs can dramatically reduce the costs of observational studies by judicious selection of the most informative subjects for purposes of detailed covariate measurement. Here we derive asymptotic information bounds and the form of the efficient score and influence functions for the semiparametric regression models studied by Lawless, Kalbfleisch, and Wild (1999) under two-phase sampling designs. We show that the maximum likelihood estimators for both the parametric and nonparametric parts of the model are asymptotically normal and efficient. The efficient influence function for the parametric part aggress with the more general information bound calculations of Robins, Hsieh, and Newey (1995). By verifying the conditions of Murphy and Van der Vaart (2000) for a least favorable parametric submodel, we provide asymptotic justification for statistical inference based on profile likelihood.

Causes of death and determinants of outcome in critically ill patients

INTRODUCTION: Whereas most studies focus on laboratory and clinical research, little is known about the causes of death and risk factors for death in critically ill patients. METHODS: Three thousand seven hundred patients admitted to an adult intensive care unit (ICU) were prospectively evaluated. Study endpoints were to evaluate causes of death and risk factors for death in the ICU, in the hospital after discharge from ICU, and within one year after ICU admission. Causes of death in the ICU were defined according to standard ICU practice, whereas deaths in the hospital and at one year were defined and grouped according to the ICD-10 (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems) score. Stepwise logistic regression analyses were separately calculated to identify independent risk factors for death during the given time periods. RESULTS: Acute, refractory multiple organ dysfunction syndrome was the most frequent cause of death in the ICU (47%), and central nervous system failure (relative risk [RR] 16.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 8.3 to 31.4, p < 0.001) and cardiovascular failure (RR 11.83, 95% CI 5.2 to 27.1, p < 0.001) were the two most important risk factors for death in the ICU. Malignant tumour disease and exacerbation of chronic cardiovascular disease were the most frequent causes of death in the hospital (31.3% and 19.4%, respectively) and at one year (33.2% and 16.1%, respectively). CONCLUSION: In this primarily surgical critically ill patient population, acute or chronic multiple organ dysfunction syndrome prevailed over single-organ failure or unexpected cardiac arrest as a cause of death in the ICU. Malignant tumour disease and chronic cardiovascular disease were the most important causes of death after ICU discharge.

Impact of viral E2-gene status on outcome after radiotherapy for patients with human papillomavirus 16-positive cancer of the uterine cervix

PURPOSE: Integration of high-risk papillomavirus DNA has been considered an important step in oncogenic progression to cervical carcinoma. Disruption of the human papillomavirus (HPV) genome within the E2 gene is frequently a consequence. This study investigated the influence of episomal viral DNA on outcome in patients with advanced cervical cancer treated with primary radiotherapy. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Paraffin-embedded biopsies of 82 women with locally advanced cervical cancer could be analyzed for HPV infection by multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) by use of SPF1/2 primers. E2-gene intactness of HPV-16-positive samples was analyzed in 3 separate amplification reactions by use of the E2A, E2B, E2C primers. Statistical analyses (Kaplan-Meier method; log-rank test) were performed for overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), local progression-free survival (LPFS), and distant metastases-free survival (DMFS). RESULTS: Sixty-one (75%) of 82 carcinomas were HPV positive, 44 of them for HPV-16 (72%). Seventeen of the 44 HPV-16-positive tumors (39%) had an intact E2 gene. Patients with a HPV-16-positive tumor and an intact E2 gene showed a trend for a better DFS (58% vs. 38%, p = 0.06) compared with those with a disrupted E2 gene. A nonsignificant difference occurred regarding OS (87% vs. 66%, p = 0.16) and DMFS (57% vs. 48%, p = 0.15). CONCLUSION: E2-gene status may be a promising new target, but more studies are required to elucidate the effect of the viral E2 gene on outcome after radiotherapy in HPV-positive tumors.

The feasibility, efficacy and functional outcome of local anaesthetic repair of anterior and posterior vaginal wall prolapse

INTRODUCTION: Urogenital prolapse is a very common condition in women with a prevalence of 30%. If conservative therapy fails or is not desired by the patient, prolapse repair is usually performed under general or regional anaesthetic. The aim of the study was to evaluate feasibility, efficacy and functional outcome after fascial prolapse repairs under local anaesthetic (LA). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between November 1999 and December 2000, 130 consecutive patients presenting with anterior or posterior prolapse or both were invited to have their procedure performed under LA. All patients with a symptomatic minimum stage II prolapse were included. Prior to surgery all women completed a standardized questionnaire examining the specific and non-specific symptoms of prolapse and their situation was classified using the ICS Pelvic Organ Prolapse (POP-Q) system. Follow up was 30 months. Objective success was defined as a stage 1 or less and no symptoms of bulge, subjective success was defined as lack of specific or non-specific symptoms of prolapse. RESULTS: There were 128 patients who agreed to have their operations performed under LA: 68 in the anterior group, 52 in the posterior group and 8 with a combined anterior and posterior repair. Objective cure rate was 88% for posterior repair, 87% for anterior repair and 63% for combined repair. Success rates were no different in primary from recurrent cases. There were no intraoperative complications and operating time was 21 min (anterior repair) or 23 min (posterior repair). There was no de novo postoperative urinary or stool incontinence and all patients but two would have the operation performed again under the same circumstances. The two remaining refused due to embarrassment but for no other reason. CONCLUSION: Local anaesthetic prolapse repair is feasible and effective in middle term results. It is well accepted by the patients who benefit from less side effects and short hospital stay.

Long-term outcome after structural failure of rotator cuff repairs

BACKGROUND: In a previous study, twenty consecutive patients with a rerupture of the rotator cuff, as documented with magnetic resonance imaging, were found to have significantly less pain and better function and strength, compared with the preoperative state, at 3.2 years postoperatively. It was the purpose of this study to determine the clinical and structural outcomes of these reruptures in the same twenty patients after a longer period of follow-up. METHODS: At a mean of 7.6 years postoperatively, the twenty patients were reexamined clinically and with standard radiographs and magnetic resonance imaging with use of the same clinical, radiographic, and magnetic resonance imaging criteria as were utilized in the review at 3.2 years. The mean age at the time of final follow-up was sixty-six years. RESULTS: Nineteen of the twenty patients continued to be either very satisfied or satisfied with the outcome. The relative Constant score averaged 88% and was not significantly different from the score at 3.2 years, which averaged 83%. The mean scores for pain, function, and strength also had not changed significantly. Overall, the twenty reruptures had not increased in size, and eight of them had healed structurally at the time of the 7.6-year follow-up. Seven of these eight reruptures had been of the supraspinatus tendon only, and seven had been smaller than 400 mm(2) at 3.2 years. Twelve reruptures persisted, and five were larger than the preoperative tear. Fatty infiltration of the infraspinatus muscle progressed significantly (p = 0.015) and the acromiohumeral distance decreased significantly (p = 0.006) between the two follow-up periods. Neither fatty infiltration of the supraspinatus and subscapularis muscles nor glenohumeral osteoarthritis progressed significantly. CONCLUSIONS: At an average of 7.6 years, the clinical outcomes after structural failure of rotator cuff repairs remained significantly improved over the preoperative state in terms of pain, function, strength, and patient satisfaction. Overall, the reruptures that had been present at 3.2 years did not increase in size. We also found that reruptures of the supraspinatus that had been smaller than 400 mm(2) had the potential to heal.

Outcome of stroke with mild or rapidly improving symptoms

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Acute ischemic stroke with mild or rapidly improving symptoms is expected to result in good functional outcome, whether treated or not. Therefore, thrombolysis with its potential risks does not seem to be justified in such patients. However, recent studies indicate that the outcome is not invariably benign. METHODS: We analyzed clinical and radiological data of patients with stroke who presented within 6 hours of stroke onset and did not receive thrombolysis because of mild or rapidly improving symptoms. Univariate and logistic regression analyses were performed to define predictors of clinical outcome. RESULTS: One hundred sixty-two consecutive patients (110 men and 52 women) aged 63+/-13 years were included. The median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score on admission was 2 (range, 1 to 14). All patients presented within 6 hours of symptom onset. After 3 months, modified Rankin Scale score was outcome. Thirty-eight patients (23.5%) had an unfavorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale 2 to 5) and 2 patients (1.3%) had died. Baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score >/=10 points increased the odds of unfavorable outcome or death 16.9-fold (95% CI: 1.8 to 159.5; P<0.013), and proximal vessel occlusion increased the odds 7.13-fold (95% CI: 1.1 to 45.5; P<0.038). CONCLUSIONS: Seventy-five percent of patients with mild or rapidly improving symptoms will have a favorable outcome after 3 months. Therefore, a decision against thrombolysis seems to be justified in the majority of patients. However, selected patients, especially those with proximal vessel occlusions and baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores >/=10 points, might derive a benefit from thrombolysis.

Detection of hepatic portal venous gas: its clinical impact and outcome

The clinical impact and outcome of a rare radiographic finding of hepatic portal venous gas (HPVG) as well as the effectiveness of computed tomography (CT), CT scanogram, and conventional radiography in the detection of HPVG were retrospectively analyzed. CT scans, CT scanogram, and plain film radiographs of 11 patients with HPVG were reviewed and compared with their medical records and surgical and pathology reports. Eight of the 11 patients underwent plain film radiographs 1 day before or after the CT scan. HPVG was detected at CT in all 11 patients, on CT scanogram in three (3 of 11, 27.3%), and on plain films in one (one of eight, 12.5%). In nine of 11 patients (81.8%), CT revealed an associated pneumatosis intestinalis. In six of the 11 patients (54.6%), acute mesenteric ischemia was the underlying disease for HPVG. Seven patients (63.6%) underwent emergency exploratory laparotomy. The mortality rate for HPVG alone was 27.3% (3 of 11) and for HPVG related to mesenteric bowel disease 50% (three of six). Acute mesenteric ischemia is the most common cause of HPVG, which continues to have a predictably higher mortality. CT is superior to CT scanograms and radiographs in the detection of HPVG and its underlying diseases and, therefore, should be used as the primary diagnostic tool.

Periapical surgery and the maxillary sinus: radiographic parameters for clinical outcome

OBJECTIVE: To find out whether conventional periapical radiographs can be used to determine the risk of creating an oroantral communication (OAC) while performing periapical surgery on maxillary premolars and molars. STUDY DESIGN: One hundred thirteen periapical radiographs of maxillary premolars and molars with periapical radiolucencies indicating chronic apical periodontitis were retrospectively analyzed and classified. The surgery reports were evaluated for occurrence of perforation of the maxillary sinus and postoperative complications. RESULTS: Perforation of the sinus membrane (also referred to as the Schneiderian membrane) occurred in 12 cases (9.6%). Exposure of the membrane without rupture occurred in 15 cases (12%). It was found that the distance between the apex or the periapical lesion and the sinus floor did not serve as a predictor of a possible sinus membrane rupture. On the other hand, if the radiograph showed a distinct distance between the lesion and the sinus floor, there was an 82.5% probability that OAC would not occur. Additionally, a blurred radiographic outline of the periapical lesion did not indicate an increased risk of sinus membrane rupture. CONCLUSION: Conventional periapical radiographs cannot be used as predictors for perforation of the maxillary sinus during periapical surgery. However, radiographs with a specific distance between the periapical lesion and the sinus floor point toward a very low risk of accidental sinus perforation during periapical surgery.