Modeling the Volatility of Real GDP Growth: The Case of Japan Revisited

Previous studies (e.g., Hamori, 2000; Ho and Tsui, 2003; Fountas et al., 2004) find high volatility persistence of economic growth rates using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specifications. This paper reexamines the Japanese case, using the same approach and showing that this finding of high volatility persistence reflects the Great Moderation, which features a sharp decline in the variance as well as two falls in the mean of the growth rates identified by Bai and Perronâs (1998, 2003) multiple structural change test. Our empirical results provide new evidence. First, excess kurtosis drops substantially or disappears in the GARCH or exponential GARCH model that corrects for an additive outlier. Second, using the outlier-corrected data, the integrated GARCH effect or high volatility persistence remains in the specification once we introduce intercept-shift dummies into the mean equation. Third, the time-varying variance falls sharply, only when we incorporate the break in the variance equation. Fourth, the ARCH in mean model finds no effects of our more correct measure of output volatility on output growth or of output growth on its volatility.

Cross-Country Evidence on Output Growth Volatility: Nonstationary Variance and GARCH Models

This paper revisits the issue of conditional volatility in real GDP growth rates for Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Previous studies find high persistence in the volatility. This paper shows that this finding largely reflects a nonstationary variance. Output growth in the four countries became noticeably less volatile over the past few decades. In this paper, we employ the modified ICSS algorithm to detect structural change in the unconditional variance of output growth. One structural break exists in each of the four countries. We then use generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specifications modeling output growth and its volatility with and without the break in volatility. The evidence shows that the time-varying variance falls sharply in Canada, Japan, and the U.K. and disappears in the U.S., excess kurtosis vanishes in Canada, Japan, and the U.S. and drops substantially in the U.K., once we incorporate the break in the variance equation of output for the four countries. That is, the integrated GARCH (IGARCH) effect proves spurious and the GARCH model demonstrates misspecification, if researchers neglect a nonstationary unconditional variance.

Labeling in the Classroom: Teacher Expectations and their Effects on Students' Academic Potential

The transition to high school can be challenging for some adolescents, resulting in drops of academic functioning (Barber & Olsen, 2004; Smith, 2006). While changes in academic demands and the disparity between adolescent needs and the environmental characteristics of high school have both been cited as possible contributors to this decrease in academic and personal functioning (Barber & Olsen, 2004), it is possible that teachers may play an even larger role in undermining these students’ functioning, specifically through labeling. Although labeling, and how it can lead to self-fulfilling prophesies, is a concept that has been thoroughly researched and applied to the field of criminology and deviant behavior, it is the goal of this current study to investigate if labeling also occurs in the classroom setting and how such labels ultimately effect the academic potential of high school students.

Missed opportunities in the prevention of perinatal human immunodeficiency syndrome virus transmission

Mother to child transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has decreased dramatically in the United States since the mid-1990s. Without antiretroviral therapy the risk of perinatal infection is as high as 25%; with treatment the risk drops to <1-2%. However, state surveillance data show a recent rise in the percentage of babies being born with HIV in Texas. No studies of perinatal HIV transmission in Texas have focused on the individual cases and identified what social/institutional barriers stood in the way of the index woman, her support system and her health providers in negotiating access to prenatal care and HIV treatment.^ The Texas Department of State Health Services identifies the babies born in Texas with HIV infection. This two year study will use mixed methods to identify barriers to the diagnosis and treatment of maternal HIV. In-depth interviews and chart reviews will be used to conduct the study. The abstracted medical record will give us demographic data and details of the timing of testing and treatment; interviews will provide information as to the individual and environmental factors that may have delayed testing and treatment. Little research has been done to assess the factors contributing to late prenatal HIV diagnosis and care in Texas and the interventions identified by mothers of affected babies that might overcome these obstacles.^ Conclusions from this study will guide the development of interventions to better educate the public, reduce structural barriers common to the underserved, and/or educate health care professionals. The study will also serve as a model for other states to undertake evaluation of their cases of perinatal infection. ^

Total cholesterol and anthropometric measurements distributions in a cross-sectional study of school children

Cross-sectional age and sex specific distributions of serum total cholesterol were described for 1091 children age 6-18 years, in The Woodlands, Texas. Associations of serum total cholesterol with five anthropometric measurements (weight, height, body mass index, arm circumference, and triceps skinfold thickness) were examined by correlation and regression analyses. Examination of serum total cholesterol distributions showed lower levels in boys than in girls for most of the age groups studied. Mean levels of total cholesterol peaked at age 9 for boys and 8 for girls. Serum total cholesterol leveled off until age 14 for boys and 11 for girls, and then dropped through age 18 for both boys and girls. These results support the hypothesis that serum total cholesterol concentration drops at pre-adolescence.^ Age adjusted correlations were observed between serum total cholesterol and triceps skinfold thickness for both boys and girls. This association was stronger in boys. Triceps skinfold thickness and arm circumference were consistently the strongest correlates for serum total cholesterol in boys. Weight and arm circumference were consistently the strongest correlates for serum total cholesterol in girls. ^

The Role Of IL-8-Mediated Src Family Kinase Activation In Tumor-Tumor And Tumor-Stromal Interactions In Metastasis Of Prostate Cancer

Men with localized prostate cancer (PCa) have a 100% five-year survival rate, but this rate drops to 33% for men with metastatic disease. A better understanding of the metastatic process is needed to develop better therapies for PCa. Aberrant activation of protein tyrosine kinases, including Src Family Kinases (SFKs) contribute to metastasis through numerous functions, one of which leads to increased expression of cytokines, such as IL-8. However, the relationship between Src activity and IL-8 regulation is not completely understood. In cell line models, I determined that IL-8 activates Src and in turn Src activates IL-8 demonstrating a feed forward loop contributing to the migration and invasion of PCa cells. However, IL-8 is also produced by tumor-associated stromal cells. In bone marrow derived stromal cells (HS5), I demonstrated a feed forward loop occurs as was observed in tumor cells. HS5 conditioned media increased Src activity in PCa cells. By silencing IL-8 in HS5 cells, Src activity was decreased to control levels in PCa cells as was migration and invasion. Thus, stromal cells producing IL-8 contribute to metastatic properties of PCa by a paracrine mechanism. To examine the effect of stromal cells on tumor growth and metastatic potential of PCa in vivo, I mixed HS5 and PCa cells and co-injected them intraprostatically. I determined that tumor growth and metastases were increased. By silencing IL-8 in HS5 cells and co-injecting them with PCa cells intraprostatically, tumor growth and metastases were still increased relative to injection of PCa cells alone, but decreased relative to co-injections with PCa cells and HS5 cells. These studies demonstrated: (1) a feed forward loop in both tumor and stromal cells, whereby IL-8 activates Src, derepressing IL-8 expression in PCa cells in vitro; (2) stromal produced IL-8 activates Src and contributes to the migration and invasion of PCa cells in vitro; and (3) stromal produced IL-8 is responsible, in part, for increases in PCa tumor growth and metastatic potential. Together, these studies demonstrated that IL-8-mediated Src activity increases the metastatic potential of PCa and therapeutic agents interfering with the IL-8/SFK signaling axis may be useful for prevention and treatment of metastases.

Age determination and sea-surface reconstruction of sediment cores from the Norwegian Sea

Polycystine radiolarians are used to reconstruct summer sea surface temperatures (SSSTs) for the Late Pleistocene-Holocene (600-13,400 14C years BP) in the Norwegian Sea. At 13,200 14C years BP, the SSST was close to the average Holocene SSST (~12°C). It then gradually dropped to 7.1°C in the Younger Dryas. Near the Younger Dryas-Holocene transition (~10,000 14C years BP), the SSST increased 5°C in about 530 years. Four abrupt cooling events, with temperature drops of up to 2.1°C, are recognized during the Holocene: at 9340, 7100 ("8200 calendar years event"), 6400 and 1650 14C years BP. Radiolarian SSSTs and the isotopic signal from the GISP2 ice core are strongly coupled, stressing the importance of the Norwegian Sea as a mediator of heat/precipitation exchange between the North Atlantic, the atmosphere, and the Greenland ice sheet. Radiolarian and diatom-derived SSSTs display similarities, with the former not showing the recently reported Holocene cooling trend.