The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

Border figure detection using a phase oscillator network with dynamical coupling

Oscillator networks have been developed in order to perform specific tasks related to image processing. Here we analytically investigate the existence of synchronism in a pair of phase oscillators that are short-range dynamically coupled. Then, we use these analytical results to design a network able of detecting border of black-and-white figures. Each unit composing this network is a pair of such phase oscillators and is assigned to a pixel in the image. The couplings among the units forming the network are also dynamical. Border detection emerges from the network activity.

System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

EFFECT OF FERTILIZATION ON CELL SIZE IN WOOD OF Eucalyptus grandis Hill Ex Maiden

The use of fertilization in forest stands results in yield gains, yet little attention has been directed to its potential effects on the quality of wood produced. Information is scarce about the effect of fertilization on anatomical structures of older Eucalyptus wood. This work aims to study the effect of fertilization on tissue cell size of wood from an Eucalyptus grandis stand at age 21 years, the management system of which is based on selective thinning and fertilizer application at the start of the thinning season. Factors to consider include: presence or absence of fertilizers, two log positions and five radial (pith to bark) positions. Results led to the conclusion that fertilization significantly influenced only vessel frequency. Vessel element length was influenced by tree height. Fiber length, fiber diameter, fiber wall thickness, vessel element length, vessel diameter and vessel frequency were influenced by the radial position of the sample in relation to the log. A positive correlation was observed between fiber length, fiber diameter, fiber wall thickness, vessel element length, vessel diameter, ray width and radial position, while a negative correlation was observed between ray frequency and radial position.

DEVELOPMENT OF A NOVEL SET OF MICROSATELLITE MARKERS FOR CASTOR BEAN, RICINUS COMMUNIS (EUPHORBIACEAE)

Premise of study: Microsatellite primers were developed for castor bean (Ricinus communis L.) to investigate genetic diversity and population structure, and to provide support to germplasm management. Methods and Results: Eleven microsatellite loci were isolated using an enrichment cloning protocol and used to characterize castor bean germplasm from the collection at the Instituto Agronomico de Campinas (IAC). In a survey of 76 castor bean accessions, the investigated loci displayed polymorphism ranging from two to five alleles. Conclusions: The information derived from microsatellite markers led to significant gains in conserved allelic richness and provides support to the implementation of several molecular breeding strategies for castor bean.

DEVELOPMENT OF MICROSATELLITE MARKERS FOR AULONEMIA ARISTULATA (POACEAE) AND CROSS-AMPLIFICATION IN OTHER BAMBOO SPECIES

Premise of the study: Microsatellite primers were developed for Aulonemia aristulata, an endangered species of economic interest, to further describe its genetic variability and population structure. We also tested cross-amplification in 18 other bamboo species. Methods and Results: Using an enrichment genomic library, 13 microsatellite loci were isolated and characterized in A. aristulata. Seven of these loci were polymorphic. Twelve markers were cross-amplified in at least ten of the tested bamboo species. Conclusions: These markers will be useful for studies on the genetic diversity and structure of A. aristulata, which are important for future conservation, management and breeding programs of this species.

Endophytic and pathogenic isolates of the cacao fungal pathogen Moniliophthora perniciosa (Tricholomataceae) are indistinguishable based on genetic and physiological analysis

We evaluated the genetic and physiological variability of Moniliophthora perniciosa obtained from healthy and diseased branches of cacao (Theobroma cacao) plants. The diversity of the isolates was evaluated by RAPD technique and by studies of virulence and exoenzyme production. The genetic variability of endophytic and pathogenic M. perniciosa was evaluated in association with pathogenicity assays. RAPD analysis showed eight genetic groups, which were not related to plant disease status (healthy versus diseased branches). Isolates from cacao were included in three groups, excluding isolates from other host plants. Pathogenicity and enzyme analysis showed that the virulence of the isolates is not related to exoenzyme production. This is the first evidence that M. perniciosa colonizes healthy parenchymatic tissues, showing that endophytic behavior may occur in this species.

A spatial approach for the epidemiology of antibiotic use and resistance in community-based studies: the emergence of urban clusters of Escherichia coli quinolone resistance in Sao Paulo, Brasil

Background: Population antimicrobial use may influence resistance emergence. Resistance is an ecological phenomenon due to potential transmissibility. We investigated spatial and temporal patterns of ciprofloxacin (CIP) population consumption related to E. coli resistance emergence and dissemination in a major Brazilian city. A total of 4,372 urinary tract infection E. coli cases, with 723 CIP resistant, were identified in 2002 from two outpatient centres. Cases were address geocoded in a digital map. Raw CIP consumption data was transformed into usage density in DDDs by CIP selling points influence zones determination. A stochastic model coupled with a Geographical Information System was applied for relating resistance and usage density and for detecting city areas of high/low resistance risk. Results: E. coli CIP resistant cluster emergence was detected and significantly related to usage density at a level of 5 to 9 CIP DDDs. There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. Conclusions: There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. The usage density of 5-9 CIP DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants within the same influence zone was the resistance triggering level. This level led to E. coli resistance clustering, proving that individual resistance emergence and dissemination was affected by antimicrobial population consumption.

Alkaloids from Stems of Esenbeckia leiocarpa Engl. (Rutaceae) as Potential Treatment for Alzheimer Disease

Esenbeckia leiocarpa Engl. (Rutaceae), popularly known as guaranta, goiabeira, is a native tree from Brazil. Bioactivity-guided fractionation of the ethanol stems extract afforded the isolation of six alkaloids: leiokinine A, leptomerine, kokusaginine, skimmianine, maculine and flindersiamine. All isolated compounds were tested for acetyl cholinesterase inhibition, in vitro and displayed anticholinesterasic activity. The alkaloid leptomerine showed the highest activity (IC(50) = 2.5 mu M), similar to that of the reference compound galanthamine (IC(50) = 1.7 mu M). The results showed for the first time the presence of alkaloids leptomerine and skimmianine in E. leiocarpa (Engl.) with potent anticholinesterasic activity.

Phylogenetic relationships within the speciose family Characidae (Teleostei: Ostariophysi: Characiformes) based on multilocus analysis and extensive ingroup sampling

Background: With nearly 1,100 species, the fish family Characidae represents more than half of the species of Characiformes, and is a key component of Neotropical freshwater ecosystems. The composition, phylogeny, and classification of Characidae is currently uncertain, despite significant efforts based on analysis of morphological and molecular data. No consensus about the monophyly of this group or its position within the order Characiformes has been reached, challenged by the fact that many key studies to date have non-overlapping taxonomic representation and focus only on subsets of this diversity. Results: In the present study we propose a new definition of the family Characidae and a hypothesis of relationships for the Characiformes based on phylogenetic analysis of DNA sequences of two mitochondrial and three nuclear genes (4,680 base pairs). The sequences were obtained from 211 samples representing 166 genera distributed among all 18 recognized families in the order Characiformes, all 14 recognized subfamilies in the Characidae, plus 56 of the genera so far considered incertae sedis in the Characidae. The phylogeny obtained is robust, with most lineages significantly supported by posterior probabilities in Bayesian analysis, and high bootstrap values from maximum likelihood and parsimony analyses. Conclusion: A monophyletic assemblage strongly supported in all our phylogenetic analysis is herein defined as the Characidae and includes the characiform species lacking a supraorbital bone and with a derived position of the emergence of the hyoid artery from the anterior ceratohyal. To recognize this and several other monophyletic groups within characiforms we propose changes in the limits of several families to facilitate future studies in the Characiformes and particularly the Characidae. This work presents a new phylogenetic framework for a speciose and morphologically diverse group of freshwater fishes of significant ecological and evolutionary importance across the Neotropics and portions of Africa.

A Simple and Fast Method for the Production and Characterization of Methylic and Ethylic Biodiesels from Tucum Oil via an Alkaline Route

A simple, fast, and complete route for the production of methylic and ethylic biodiesel from tucum oil is described. Aliquots of the oil obtained directly from pressed tucum (pulp and almonds) were treated with potassium methoxide or ethoxide at 40 degrees C for 40 min. The biodiesel form was removed from the reactor and washed with 0.1 M HCl aqueous solution. A simple distillation at 100 degrees C was carried out in order to remove water and alcohol species from the biodiesel. The oxidative stability index was obtained for the tucum oil as well as the methylic and ethylic biodiesel at 6.13, 2.90, and 2.80 h, for storage times higher than 8 days. Quality control of the original oil and of the methylic and ethylic biodiesels, such as the amount of glycerin produced during the transesterification process, was accomplished by the TLC, GC-MS, and FT-IR techniques. The results obtained in this study indicate a potential biofuel production by simple treatment of tucum, an important Amazonian fruit.

Indications of Conical Emission of Charged Hadrons at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider

Three-particle azimuthal correlation measurements with a high transverse momentum trigger particle are reported for pp, d + Au, and Au + Au collisions at root(S)NN = 200 GeV by the STAR experiment. Dijet structures are observed in pp, d + Au and peripheral Au + Au collisions. An additional structure is observed in central Au + Au data, signaling conical emission of correlated charged hadrons. The conical emission angle is found to be theta = 1.37 +/- 0.02(stat)(-0.07)(+0.06)(syst), independent of p perpendicular to.

Beam-energy and system-size dependence of dynamical net charge fluctuations

We present measurements of net charge fluctuations in Au+Au collisions at s(NN)=19.6, 62.4, 130, and 200 GeV, Cu+Cu collisions at s(NN)=62.4 and 200 GeV, and p+p collisions at s=200 GeV using the dynamical net charge fluctuations measure nu(+-,dyn). We observe that the dynamical fluctuations are nonzero at all energies and exhibit a modest dependence on beam energy. A weak system size dependence is also observed. We examine the collision centrality dependence of the net charge fluctuations and find that dynamical net charge fluctuations violate 1/N(ch) scaling but display approximate 1/N(part) scaling. We also study the azimuthal and rapidity dependence of the net charge correlation strength and observe strong dependence on the azimuthal angular range and pseudorapidity widths integrated to measure the correlation.

System-Size Independence of Directed Flow Measured at the BNL Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider

We measure directed flow (v(1)) for charged particles in Au + Au and Cu + Cu collisions at root s(NN) = 200 and 62.4 GeV, as a function of pseudorapidity (eta), transverse momentum (p(t)), and collision centrality, based on data from the STAR experiment. We find that the directed flow depends on the incident energy but, contrary to all available model implementations, not on the size of the colliding system at a given centrality. We extend the validity of the limiting fragmentation concept to v(1) in different collision systems, and investigate possible explanations for the observed sign change in v(1)(p(t)).

Forward Neutral-Pion Transverse Single-Spin Asymmetries in p plus p Collisions at s=200 GeV

We report precision measurements of the Feynman x (x(F)) dependence, and first measurements of the transverse momentum (p(T)) dependence, of transverse single-spin asymmetries for the production of pi(0) mesons from polarized proton collisions at s=200 GeV. The x(F) dependence of the results is in fair agreement with perturbative QCD model calculations that identify orbital motion of quarks and gluons within the proton as the origin of the spin effects. Results for the p(T) dependence at fixed x(F) are not consistent with these same perturbative QCD-based calculations.