An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Saint Lucia

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Saint Lucia to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change in Saint Lucia. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies for each sector was also undertaken using standard evaluation techniques. The key subsectors in agriculture are expected to have mixed impacts under the A2 and B2 scenarios. Banana, fisheries and root crop outputs are expected to fall with climate change, but tree crop and vegetable production are expected to rise. In aggregate, in every decade up to 2050, these sub-sectors combined are expected to experience a gain under climate change with the highest gains under A2. By 2050, the cumulative gain under A2 is calculated as approximately US$389.35 million and approximately US$310.58 million under B2, which represents 17.93% and 14.30% of the 2008 GDP respectively. This result was unexpected and may well be attributed to the unavailability of annual data that would have informed a more robust assessment. Additionally, costs to the agriculture sector due to tropical cyclones were estimated to be $6.9 million and $6.2 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. There are a number of possible adaptation strategies that can be employed by the agriculture sector. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the benefit-cost ratio are: (1) Designing and implementation of holistic water management plans (2) Establishment of systems of food storage and (3) Establishment of early warning systems. Government policy should focus on the development of these adaption options where they are not currently being pursued and strengthen those that have already been initiated, such as the mainstreaming of climate change issues in agricultural policy. The analysis of the health sector placed focus on gastroenteritis, schistosomiasis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococal meningitis, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and malnutrition. The results obtained for the A2 and B2 scenarios demonstrate the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the health system in the future, a factor that will further compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. Specifically, it was determined that the overall Value of Statistical Lives impacts were higher under the A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. A number of adaptation cost assumptions were employed to determine the damage cost estimates using benefit-cost analysis. The benefit-cost analysis suggests that expenditure on monitoring and information provision would be a highly efficient step in managing climate change and subsequent increases in disease incidence. Various locations in the world have developed forecasting systems for dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases that could be mirrored and implemented. Combining such macro-level policies with inexpensive micro-level behavioural changes may have the potential for pre-empting the re-establishment of dengue fever and other vector-borne epidemic cycles in Saint Lucia. Although temperature has the probability of generating significant excess mortality for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, the power of temperature to increase mortality largely depends on the education of the population about the harmful effects of increasing temperatures and on the existing incidence of these two diseases. For these diseases it is also suggested that a mix of macro-level efforts and micro-level behavioural changes can be employed to relieve at least part of the threat that climate change poses to human health. The same principle applies for water and food-borne diseases, with the improvement of sanitation infrastructure complementing the strengthening of individual hygiene habits. The results regarding the tourism sector imply that the tourism climatic index was likely to experience a significant downward shift in Saint Lucia under the A2 as well as the B2 scenario, indicative of deterioration in the suitability of the island for tourism. It is estimated that this shift in tourism features could cost Saint Lucia about 5 times the 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. In addition to changes in climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects on species, ecosystems and landscapes. Two broad areas are: (1) coral reefs, due to their intimate link to tourism, and, (2) land loss, as most hotels tend to lie along the coastline. The damage related to coral reefs was estimated at US$3.4 billion (3.6 times GDP in 2009) under the A2 scenario and US$1.7 billion (1.6 times GDP in 2009) under the B2 scenario. The damage due to land loss arising from sea level rise was estimated at US$3.5 billion (3.7 times GDP) under the A2 scenario and US$3.2 billion (3.4 times GDP) under the B2 scenario. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 9 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. Using benefit-cost analyses 3 options with positive ratios were put forward: (1) increased recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (2) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and, (3) deployment of artificial reefs or other fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit-cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits. These include the employment of an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climate realities.

Design ergonômico: diretrizes para projetos habitacionais geriátricos

Pós-graduação em Design - FAAC

Estimação da porcentagem de flúor em alumina fluoretada proveniente de uma planta de tratamento de gases por meio de um sensor virtual neural

As indústrias têm buscado constantemente reduzir gastos operacionais, visando o aumento do lucro e da competitividade. Para alcançar essa meta, são necessários, dentre outros fatores, o projeto e a implantação de novas ferramentas que permitam o acesso às informações relevantes do processo de forma precisa, eficiente e barata. Os sensores virtuais têm sido aplicados cada vez mais nas indústrias. Por ser flexível, ele pode ser adaptado a qualquer tipo de medição, promovendo uma redução de custos operacionais sem comprometer, e em alguns casos até melhorar, a qualidade da informação gerada. Como estão totalmente baseados em software, não estão sujeitos a danos físicos como os sensores reais, além de permitirem uma melhor adaptação a ambientes hostis e de difícil acesso. A razão do sucesso destes tipos de sensores é a utilização de técnicas de inteligência computacional, as quais têm sido usadas na modelagem de vários processos não lineares altamente complexos. Este trabalho tem como objetivo estimar a qualidade da alumina fluoretada proveniente de uma Planta de Tratamento de Gases (PTG), a qual é resultado da adsorção de gases poluentes em alumina virgem, via sensor virtual. O modelo que emula o comportamento de um sensor de qualidade de alumina foi criado através da técnica de inteligência computacional conhecida como Rede Neural Artificial. As motivações deste trabalho consistem em: realizar simulações virtuais, sem comprometer o funcionamento da PTG; tomar decisões mais precisas e não baseada somente na experiência do operador; diagnosticar potenciais problemas, antes que esses interfiram na qualidade da alumina fluoretada; manter o funcionamento do forno de redução de alumínio dentro da normalidade, pois a produção de alumina de baixa qualidade afeta a reação de quebra da molécula que contém este metal. Os benefícios que este projeto trará consistem em: aumentar a eficiência da PTG, produzindo alumina fluoretada de alta qualidade e emitindo menos gases poluentes na atmosfera, além de aumentar o tempo de vida útil do forno de redução.

GAIA - Uma proposta de agente inteligente acoplado a algoritmos evolucionários para ajuste dinâmico de parâmetros através de conceitos de design inteligente e lógica fuzzy

Há muitos anos, técnicas de Computação Evolucionária vem sendo aplicadas com sucesso na solução dos mais variados tipos de problemas de otimização. Na constante procura pelo ótimo global e por uma melhor exploração da superfície de busca, as escolhas para ajustar estes métodos podem ser exponencialmente complexas e requerem uma grande quantidade de intervenção humana. Estes modelos tradicionais darwinianos apóiam-se fortemente em aleatoriedade e escolhas heurísticas que se mantém fixas durante toda a execução, sem que acompanhem a variabilidade dos indivíduos e as eventuais mudanças necessárias. Dadas estas questões, o trabalho introduz a combinação de aspectos da Teoria do Design Inteligente a uma abordagem hibrida de algoritmo evolucionário, através da implementação de um agente inteligente o qual, utilizando lógica fuzzy, monitora e controla dinamicamente a população e seis parâmetros definidos de uma dada execução, ajustando-os para cada situação encontrada durante a busca. Na avaliação das proposições foi construído um protótipo sobre a implementação de um algoritmo genético para o problema do caixeiro viajante simétrico aplicado ao cenário de distância por estradas entre as capitais brasileiras, o que permitiu realizar 580 testes, simulações e comparações entre diferentes configurações apresentadas e resultados de outras técnicas. A intervenção inteligente entrega resultados que, com sucesso em muitos aspectos, superam as implementações tradicionais e abrem um vasto espaço para novas pesquisas e estudos nos aqui chamados: “Algoritmos Evolucionários Híbridos Auto-Adaptáveis”, ou mesmo, “Algoritmos Evolucionários Não-Darwinianos”.

DESIGN OF MICROIRRIGATION SYSTEMS IN SLOPING LANDS USING LINEAR PROGRAMMING

Quando a área a ser irrigada apresenta um elevado gradiente de declive na direção das linhas de derivação, uma opção de dimensionamento é o uso de tubulações com vários diâmetros para economizar no custo e também para manter a variação de pressão dentro dos limites desejados. O objetivo deste trabalho foi desenvolver um modelo de programação linear para dimensionar sistemas de irrigação por microaspersão com linhas de derivação com mais de um diâmetro e operando em declive, visando a minimização do custo anualizado da rede hidráulica e do custo anual com energia elétrica, além de assegurar que a máxima variação de carga hidráulica na linha será respeitada. Os dados de entrada são: configuração da rede hidráulica do sistema de irrigação, custo de todos os componentes da rede hidráulica e custo da energia. Os dados de saída são: custo anual total, diâmetro da tubulação em cada linha do sistema, carga hidráulica em cada ponto de derivação e altura manométrica total. Para ilustrar a potencialidade do modelo desenvolvido, ele foi aplicado em um pomar de citros no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil. O modelo demonstrou ser eficiente no dimensionamento do sistema de irrigação quanto à obtenção da uniformidade de emissão desejada. O custo anual com bombeamento deve ser considerado no dimensionamento de sistemas de irrigação por microaspersão porque ele gera menores valores de custo anual total quando comparado com a mesma alternativa que não considera aquele custo.

Intervenção ergonômica e o uso da simulação computacional na concepção de produtos: o design de uma plantadora mecanizada de mandioca

Pós-graduação em Design - FAAC

Identifying problems for choosing suitable areas for installation of a new landfill through GIS technology: A case study

Selecting a suitable place to install a new landfill is a hard work. Bauru is a Brazilian municipality where the local landfill currently in use has a life span that is almost over, and the selection of a new area for a future landfill is crucial and urgent. Here we use a geographic information system (GIS) approach to indicate possible suitable areas for installing the landfill. The considered criteria were: river network and the respective buffer zone, relief, urban areas and their respective buffer zone, existence of Areas for Environmental Protection (AEPs), occurrence of wells and their respective buffer zones, existence of airports and their buffer zones, wind direction, and the road network and its respective buffer zone. Due the facts that (1) Bauru has an urban area relatively large in relation to whole municipal area, (2) Bauru has two airports, and (3) this area encompasses parts of three AEPs, the model showed that there are few areas suitable and moderately suitable in Bauru, and the greater part of the municipality is unsuitable to install a new landfill. Due to this important finding reported here, the local policymakers should consider the suitable or even moderately suitable areas for analysis in situ or look for other creative solutions for destination of the solid waste. We highly encourage the use of GIS in studies that seek suitable areas for future landfills, having found that SIG was a tool that allowed fast and precise work and generated an outcome sufficiently clear of interpretation.Implications: Solid waste (SW) management is one of the main environmental concerns nowadays. Landfilling SW is still the main practice to disposal of such material. However, for many regions, suitable places for landfilling are getting scarce. This study proved this situation for a populous place in a southeastern Brazilian region. This study also showed how the decision makers should manage the problem in order to minimize the amount of SW generated and delivered for the landfill. Massive investment in education is a critical issue to reach the proposed aim.

Robust Switched Control Design for Nonlinear Systems Using Fuzzy Models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Pruning methods to MLP neural networks considering proportional apparent error rate for classification problems with unbalanced data

This article deals with classification problems involving unequal probabilities in each class and discusses metrics to systems that use multilayer perceptrons neural networks (MLP) for the task of classifying new patterns. In addition we propose three new pruning methods that were compared to other seven existing methods in the literature for MLP networks. All pruning algorithms presented in this paper have been modified by the authors to do pruning of neurons, in order to produce fully connected MLP networks but being small in its intermediary layer. Experiments were carried out involving the E. coli unbalanced classification problem and ten pruning methods. The proposed methods had obtained good results, actually, better results than another pruning methods previously defined at the MLP neural network area. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cogeneration design problem Computational complexity analysis and solution through an expert system

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is twofold: to analyze the computational complexity of the cogeneration design problem; to present an expert system to solve the proposed problem, comparing such an approach with the traditional searching methods available.Design/methodology/approach - The complexity of the cogeneration problem is analyzed through the transformation of the well-known knapsack problem. Both problems are formulated as decision problems and it is proven that the cogeneration problem is np-complete. Thus, several searching approaches, such as population heuristics and dynamic programming, could be used to solve the problem. Alternatively, a knowledge-based approach is proposed by presenting an expert system and its knowledge representation scheme.Findings - The expert system is executed considering two case-studies. First, a cogeneration plant should meet power, steam, chilled water and hot water demands. The expert system presented two different solutions based on high complexity thermodynamic cycles. In the second case-study the plant should meet just power and steam demands. The system presents three different solutions, and one of them was never considered before by our consultant expert.Originality/value - The expert system approach is not a "blind" method, i.e. it generates solutions based on actual engineering knowledge instead of the searching strategies from traditional methods. It means that the system is able to explain its choices, making available the design rationale for each solution. This is the main advantage of the expert system approach over the traditional search methods. On the other hand, the expert system quite likely does not provide an actual optimal solution. All it can provide is one or more acceptable solutions.

Semi-supervised learning with concept drift using particle dynamics applied to network intrusion detection data

Concept drift, which refers to non stationary learning problems over time, has increasing importance in machine learning and data mining. Many concept drift applications require fast response, which means an algorithm must always be (re)trained with the latest available data. But the process of data labeling is usually expensive and/or time consuming when compared to acquisition of unlabeled data, thus usually only a small fraction of the incoming data may be effectively labeled. Semi-supervised learning methods may help in this scenario, as they use both labeled and unlabeled data in the training process. However, most of them are based on assumptions that the data is static. Therefore, semi-supervised learning with concept drifts is still an open challenging task in machine learning. Recently, a particle competition and cooperation approach has been developed to realize graph-based semi-supervised learning from static data. We have extend that approach to handle data streams and concept drift. The result is a passive algorithm which uses a single classifier approach, naturally adapted to concept changes without any explicit drift detection mechanism. It has built-in mechanisms that provide a natural way of learning from new data, gradually "forgetting" older knowledge as older data items are no longer useful for the classification of newer data items. The proposed algorithm is applied to the KDD Cup 1999 Data of network intrusion, showing its effectiveness.

Factorial design and characterization studies for articaine hydrochloride loaded alginate/chitosan nanoparticles

Nowadays, articaine hydrochloride (ATC) is a local anesthetic widely used in dental procedures, but its side effects include paresthesia and nerve injury. Alginate/chitosan nanoparticles (AG/CSnano) can be used as carrier for drugs, overcoming the problems. The aim of this work was to evaluate the factors (Calcium/alginate [Ca2+:AG] and Chitosan/alginate [CS:AG] mass ratios) influence on the average size, polydispersity index, zeta potential and encapsulation efficiency of ATC. AG/CSnano containing ATC were prepared by ionic pregelation method. A three-level factorial design was carried out and the factors varied were Ca2+/AG mass ratio and CS/AG mass ratio. There were obtained nanoparticles with size range of 340–550 nm and polydispersity index between 0.2 and 0.5, zeta potential range –19 and –22 mV and encapsulation efficiency of ATC in AG/Csnano between 22 and 45%. According to the results, the average size, polydispersity index and encapsulation efficiency were significantly affected to the variation of Ca2+/AG and CS/AG mass ratio, but the zeta potential didn't change significantly with factor variations. The factorial design showed it was possible to identify formulations that presented better results for the parameters measured. The factor chosen for the suitable formulations was the encapsulation efficiency. Through this parameter, one formulation was chosen with highest encapsulation efficiency of ATC and presented good colloidal stability parameters aiming future clinical applications.

Seleção de materiais e design: um método com base nas redes neurais artificiais

Pós-graduação em Design - FAAC

Gestão do conhecimento aplicada a comunidades produtivas artesanais

Pós-graduação em Design - FAAC

A Ciência da Informação e o Design de Informação: perspectivas interdisciplinares

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)