Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Microstrip antenna array for multiband dedicated short range communications systems

Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC) is the key enabling technology for the present and future vehicular communication for various applications, such as safety improvement and traffic jam mitigation. This paper describes the development of a microstrip antenna array for the roadside equipment of a DSRC system, whose characteristics are according with the vehicular communications standards. The proposed antenna, with circular polarization, has a wide bandwidth, enough to cover the current European DSRC 5.8 GHz band and the future 5.9 GHz band for next generation DSRC communications. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Microwave Opt Technol Lett 53: 2794-2796, 2011; View this article online at wileyonlinelibrary.com. DOI 10.1002/mop.26394

Momentum risk: An approach following the correlations between active stocks

The momentum anomaly has been widely documented in the literature. However, there are still many issues where there is no consensus and puzzles left unexplained. One is that strategies based on momentum present a level of risk that is inconsistent with the diversification that it offers. Moreover, recent studies indicate that this risk is variable over time and mostly strategy-specific. This work project hypothesises and proves that this evidence is explained by the portfolio constitution of the momentum strategy over time, namely the covariance and correlation between companies in the top and down deciles and across them.

Alpha generation with Twitter’s daily momentum

This thesis does not set out to focus on the dynamics relationship between Twitter and stock prices, but instead tries to understand if using relevant information extracted from tweets has the power to increase investors’ stock picking ability, and generate alpha in portfolio’s choice relative to a benchmark. Despite the short period analyzed, it gives promising results that the sentiment analysis performed by Social Market Analytics Inc. applied to an equity portfolio, is able to generate positive abnormal returns, statistically significant in and out of sample.

Introducing risk parity on momentum and carry portfolios

The momentum and carry anomalies have been extensively documented in the literature. However, there are still many issues relating to the risks associated to them that are left unexplained. One is the fact that an investor holds for too long the most volatile assets, both under momentum and carry strategies. Therefore, they present a level of risk and a probability of extreme events to happen inconsistent. This work project hypothesizes and proves the introduction of risk parity rules on the weights of the portfolios do increase risk rewarding of carry strategies. However, it fails under momentum strategies.

Genetic algorithm for shipping route estimation with long-range tracking data : automatic reconstruction of shipping routes based on the historical ship positions for maritime safety applications

Ship tracking systems allow Maritime Organizations that are concerned with the Safety at Sea to obtain information on the current location and route of merchant vessels. Thanks to Space technology in recent years the geographical coverage of the ship tracking platforms has increased significantly, from radar based near-shore traffic monitoring towards a worldwide picture of the maritime traffic situation. The long-range tracking systems currently in operations allow the storage of ship position data over many years: a valuable source of knowledge about the shipping routes between different ocean regions. The outcome of this Master project is a software prototype for the estimation of the most operated shipping route between any two geographical locations. The analysis is based on the historical ship positions acquired with long-range tracking systems. The proposed approach makes use of a Genetic Algorithm applied on a training set of relevant ship positions extracted from the long-term storage tracking database of the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA). The analysis of some representative shipping routes is presented and the quality of the results and their operational applications are assessed by a Maritime Safety expert.

Most and Least Preferred Colours Differ According to Object Context : New Insights from an Unrestricted Colour Range

Humans like some colours and dislike others, but which particular colours and why remains to be understood. Empirical studies on colour preferences generally targeted most preferred colours, but rarely least preferred (disliked) colours. In addition, findings are often based on general colour preferences leaving open the question whether results generalise to specific objects. Here, 88 participants selected the colours they preferred most and least for three context conditions (general, interior walls, t-shirt) using a high-precision colour picker. Participants also indicated whether they associated their colour choice to a valenced object or concept. The chosen colours varied widely between individuals and contexts and so did the reasons for their choices. Consistent patterns also emerged, as most preferred colours in general were more chromatic, while for walls they were lighter and for t-shirts they were darker and less chromatic compared to least preferred colours. This meant that general colour preferences could not explain object specific colour preferences. Measures of the selection process further revealed that, compared to most preferred colours, least preferred colours were chosen more quickly and were less often linked to valenced objects or concepts. The high intra- and inter-individual variability in this and previous reports furthers our understanding that colour preferences are determined by subjective experiences and that most and least preferred colours are not processed equally.

Attractive silences in cricket courtship song : mate choice using a short-range signal /

Matings systems using signals for sexual communication have been studied extensively and results commonly suggest that females use these signals for locating males, species-identification, and mate choice. Although numerous mating systems employ multiple signals, research has generally focused on long-range signals perhaps due to their prominence and ease of study. This study focused on the short-range acoustic courtship song of crickets. The results presented here suggest this signal is under selection by female choice. Females mated preferentially with males having shorter silences between the two types of ticks within the song. The length of these silences (Gap 1) was correlated with male condition such that males having long silences were significantly lower in mass with respect to body size when compared to males having short silences. Both Gap 1 length and male condition were significantly repeatable within males over time suggesting the possibility these traits have a genetic basis. This study is the first empirical study to test female preferences within the natural variation of the courtship song. It now appears, at least in crickets, that both the longand short-range signals of a multi-signal mating system may contribute to male mating success.

Behaviour and life history of a large carpenter bee (Xylocopa virginica) in the northern extent of its range

Large carpenter bees (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Xylocopa) have traditionally been thought of as exhibiting solitary or occasionally communal colony social organization. However, studies have demonstrated more complex fonns of social behaviour in this genus. In this document, I examine elements ofbehaviour and life history in a North American species at the northern extreme of its range. Xylocopa virginica was found to be socially polymorphic with both solitary and meta-social or semi-social nests in the same population. In social nests, there is no apparent benefit from additional females which do not perfonn significant work or guarding. I found that the timing of life-history events varies between years, yet foraging effort only differed in the coldest and wettest year of2004 the study. Finally, I that male X virginica exhibit female defence polygyny, with resident and satellite males. Resident males maintain their territories through greater aggression relative to satellites.

The finite bandwidth model for spin fluctuations in Pd

The frequency dependence of the electron-spin fluctuation spectrum, P(Q), is calculated in the finite bandwidth model. We find that for Pd, which has a nearly full d-band, the magnitude, the range, and the peak frequency of P(Q) are greatly reduced from those in the standard spin fluctuation theory. The electron self-energy due to spin fluctuations is calculated within the finite bandwidth model. Vertex corrections are examined, and we find that Migdal's theorem is valid for spin fluctuations in the nearly full band. The conductance of a normal metal-insulator-normal metal tunnel junction is examined when spin fluctuations are present in one electrode. We find that for the nearly full band, the momentum independent self-energy due to spin fluctuations enters the expression for the tunneling conductance with approximately the same weight as the self-energy due to phonons. The effect of spin fluctuations on the tunneling conductance is slight within the finite bandwidth model for Pd. The effect of spin fluctuations on the tunneling conductance of a metal with a less full d-band than Pd may be more pronounced. However, in this case the tunneling conductance is not simply proportional to the self-energy.

A tour from the City of New-York, to Detroit, in the Michigan Territory, made between the 2d of May and the 22d of September, 1818 : the tour extends from New-York, by Albany, Schenectady, and Utica to Sacket's Harbor, and thence throught Lake Ontario, to St. Lawrence river, and down that stream to Hamilton village. Thence along both banks of the St. Lawrence, from Hamilton to the Thousand Islands; thence to Sacket's Harbor by water; from that place by the route of great Sodus, Geneva, Cananaigua and Batavia, to Buffalo; and from thence to Black Rock, Fort Erie, the Falls of Niagara, Queenston, Lewiston, and the memorable fields of Bridgewater and Chippewa after viewing the interesting place of Niagara, the author traversed the south shore of Lake Erie to the City of Detroit, and visited in the latter range, Dunkirk, Erie, Cleveland, Sandusky, and other places of less note. The tour is accompanied with a map upon which the route will be designated; a particular map of the Falls andRiver of Niagara, and the environs of the City of Detroit /

Errata slip inserted.

Women’s Literary Club of St. Catharines Fonds

The Women's Literary Club of St. Catharines was founded in 1892 by a local author, Emma Harvey (Mrs. J.G.) Currie (1829-1913) and held its last official meeting on February 19, 1994. The Club developed, flourished and eventually waned. After more than one hundred successful years, the last members deposited the Club's archives at Brock University for the benefit of researchers, scholars and the larger community. The ‘object of the Club’ was established as “the promotion of literary pursuits.” The Club was a non-profit social organization composed of predominantly white, upper middle class women from the St. Catharines and surrounding areas. Club meetings were traditionally held fortnightly from March to December each year. The last meeting of the year was a celebration of their Club anniversary. The early meetings of the Club include papers presented and music performed by Club members. The literary pursuits that would dominate the agendas for the entire life of the Club reflected an interest in selected authors, national and local history, classical history, musical performances and current cultural and newsworthy events. For example in 1893 a typical meeting agendas would contain papers on Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, Hawaii, Brook Farm, Miss Louisa May Alcott and “Education of Women 100 years Ago.” Within the first year of the Club’s existence, detailed minute books became the norm and an annual agenda or program developed. The WLC collection contains a near complete set of meeting minutes from 1892 until 1995 and a comprehensive collection of yearly programs from 1983-1967 which members took great care to publish each year. Mrs. Currie brought together a group of women with a shared interest in literature and history, who wanted to pursue that interest in a formal and structured manner. She was well educated and influenced at an early age by her tutor and mentor William Kirby, local historian, writer and newspaper editor from Niagara-on-the-Lake. While Currie’s private education influenced her love of literature and history, the Club movement of the 1890’s offered a more public forum for her to share knowledge and learning with other women. Mrs. Currie was the wife of St. Catharines lawyer, James G. Currie, who also served as a Member of Parliament for the county of Lincoln. Mrs. W.H. McClive, who was also married to a St. Catharines lawyer, worked closely with Currie and they began research into the possibility of a literary Club in St. Catharines. Currie corresponded with a variety of literary Clubs across North America before she and Mrs.McClive tagged onto the momentum of the Club movement and published “A Clarion call for Women of St. Catharines To Form a Literary Club” in the local paper The St. Catharines Evening Journal. in 1892 and asked like Clubs to publish the news of their new Club. The early years of the WLC set the foundation of how the Club meetings and events would unfold for the next 80 plus years. Photos and minutes from the first ten years reveal an excitement and interest in organized Club outings. One particular event, an annual pilgrimage to the homestead of Laura Secord, became a yearly celebration for the Club. Club President, Mrs. Currie’s own personal work on Laura Secord amplified the Club’s interest in the ‘heroine of 1812’ and she allocated the profits from her publication on Secord in order to create a commemorative plaque/monument in the name of Laura Secord. The Club celebrated this event with a regular pilgrimage to this site. The connection felt by Club members and this memorial would continue until the Club’s last meetings. The majority of members in the early years were of the upper middle classes in the growing city of St. Catharines. Many of the charter members were the wives of merchants, business men, lawyers, doctors, even a hatter. Furthermore, the position of president was most often held by a woman with a comprehensive list of interests. This is particularly the case in Isabel Brighty McComb (1876-1941). Brighty who became a member in 1903, became Club president in 1932 and stayed in her post until her death in 1941. Similar to Mrs. Currie, Brighty was a local historian and published 2 booklets on local history. Her obituary indicates her position in the community as an author and involved community member committed to lifetime memberships in the Imperial Order of Daughters of Empire, I.O.D.E., the National Organization of Women, N.O.W. and the United Empire Loyalist Society, as well as the WLC. She was a locally known ‘teacher of elocution’ and a devoted researcher of Upper Canadian history. In a Club scrapbook dedicated to her, the biographical sketch illustrates the professionalism surrounding Brighty. There is very little personal history mentioned and the focus is on her literary works, her published essay, booklets and poetry. This professional focus, evident in both her obituary and the scrapbook, illustrate the diversity of these women, especially in their roles outside of the home. The WLC collection contains a vast array of essay, lectures clippings and scrapbooks from past meetings. Organized predominantly by topic or author, the folders and scrapbooks offer a substantial amount of research opportunity in the literary history of Canada. The dates, scope of topics and authors covered offer historians an exciting opportunity to examine the consumption of particular literary trends, artists and topics within the context of a midsized industrial city in English Canada. This is especially important because the agenda adhered to by the Club was bent on promoting, discussing and reviewing predominantly Canadian material. By connecting when and what these women were studying, scholars many gain a better understanding of the broader consumption and appreciation of literary and social trends of Canadian women outside of publishing and institutional records. Furthermore, because the agendas were set by and for these women, outside of the constructs of an institutionalized canon or agenda, they offer a fresh and on the ground examination of literary consumption over an extensive length of time.

SUNNY BROOK RANGE

Light brown sediment with clasts ranging from small to medium in size. The clast shape ranges from sub-angular to sub-rounded. Lineations are abundant throughout the sample. Light folding structures can also be seen in this sample. There are minor amounts of grain crushing/stacking also present.

Modeling short-range ballistic missile defense and Israel's Iron Dome system

This paper develops a model of short-range ballistic missile defense and uses it to study the performance of Israel’s Iron Dome system. The deterministic base model allows for inaccurate missiles, unsuccessful interceptions, and civil defense. Model enhancements consider the trade-offs in attacking the interception system, the difficulties faced by militants in assembling large salvos, and the effects of imperfect missile classification by the defender. A stochastic model is also developed. Analysis shows that system performance can be highly sensitive to the missile salvo size, and that systems with higher interception rates are more “fragile” when overloaded. The model is calibrated using publically available data about Iron Dome’s use during Operation Pillar of Defense in November 2012. If the systems performed as claimed, they saved Israel an estimated 1778 casualties and $80 million in property damage, and thereby made preemptive strikes on Gaza about 8 times less valuable to Israel. Gaza militants could have inflicted far more damage by grouping their rockets into large salvos, but this may have been difficult given Israel’s suppression efforts. Counter-battery fire by the militants is unlikely to be worthwhile unless they can obtain much more accurate missiles.