Protective factors associated with young passenger intervening in risky driving situations

While the negative influence of passengers on driving is usually studied, young passengers may protect against young drivers’ crash involvement by speaking out and trying to stop unsafe driving behavior. This study sought to examine psychosocial constructs of young passengers who are likely to intervene in their friends’ risky driving. Method: University students aged 17 to 25 years who were single (n = 123) or in a romantic relationship (n = 130) completed an online survey measuring protective factors. Results: The combination of individual, friend and (for participants in a relationship) romantic partner protective factors predicted self-reported passenger intervening intentions. Impact on Industry: Since peer passengers often increase young drivers’ crash risk, research on passenger intervening has significant implications for road safety strategies. The findings provide support for the operationalization of protective factors in strategies that target passenger intervening behavior.

Estimation of illuminance on the south facing surfaces for clear skies in Iran

Background: Daylight availability data are essential for designing effectively day lighted buildings. In respect to no available daylight availability data in Iran, illuminance data on the south facing vertical surfaces were estimated using a proper method. Methods: An illuminance measuring set was designed for measuring vertical illuminances for standard times over 15 days at one hour intervals from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. at three measuring stations (Hamadan, Eshtehard and Kerman). Measuring data were used to confirm predicted by the IESNA method. Results: Measurement of respective illuminances on the south vertical surfaces resulted in minimum values of 10.5 KLx, mean values of 33.59 KLx and maximum values of 79.6 KLx. Conclusion: In this study was developed a regression model between measured and calculated data of south facing vertical illuminance. This model, have a good linear correlation between measured and calculated values (r= 0.892).

An analytical method for assessing stage-specific drug activity in Plasmodium vivax malaria : implications for ex vivo drug susceptibility testing

The emergence of highly chloroquine (CQ) resistant P. vivax in Southeast Asia has created an urgent need for an improved understanding of the mechanisms of drug resistance in these parasites, the development of robust tools for defining the spread of resistance, and the discovery of new antimalarial agents. The ex vivo Schizont Maturation Test (SMT), originally developed for the study of P. falciparum, has been modified for P. vivax. We retrospectively analysed the results from 760 parasite isolates assessed by the modified SMT to investigate the relationship between parasite growth dynamics and parasite susceptibility to antimalarial drugs. Previous observations of the stage-specific activity of CQ against P. vivax were confirmed, and shown to have profound consequences for interpretation of the assay. Using a nonlinear model we show increased duration of the assay and a higher proportion of ring stages in the initial blood sample were associated with decreased effective concentration (EC50) values of CQ, and identify a threshold where these associations no longer hold. Thus, starting composition of parasites in the SMT and duration of the assay can have a profound effect on the calculated EC50 for CQ. Our findings indicate that EC50 values from assays with a duration less than 34 hours do not truly reflect the sensitivity of the parasite to CQ, nor an assay where the proportion of ring stage parasites at the start of the assay does not exceed 66%. Application of this threshold modelling approach suggests that similar issues may occur for susceptibility testing of amodiaquine and mefloquine. The statistical methodology which has been developed also provides a novel means of detecting stage-specific drug activity for new antimalarials.

Input-orientated data envelopment analysis framework for measuring and decomposing economic, environmental and ecological efficiency : an application to OECD agriculture

This paper presents an input-orientated data envelopment analysis (DEA) framework which allows the measurement and decomposition of economic, environmental and ecological efficiency levels in agricultural production across different countries. Economic, environmental and ecological optimisations search for optimal input combinations that minimise total costs, total amount of nutrients, and total amount of cumulative exergy contained in inputs respectively. The application of the framework to an agricultural dataset of 30 OECD countries revealed that (i) there was significant scope to make their agricultural production systemsmore environmentally and ecologically sustainable; (ii) the improvement in the environmental and ecological sustainability could be achieved by being more technically efficient and, even more significantly, by changing the input combinations; (iii) the rankings of sustainability varied significantly across OECD countries within frontier-based environmental and ecological efficiency measures and between frontier-based measures and indicators.

Numerical simulation of red blood cells' deformation using SPH method

A numerical simulation method for the Red Blood Cells’ (RBC) deformation is presented in this study. The two-dimensional RBC membrane is modeled by the spring network, where the elastic stretch/compression energy and the bending energy are considered with the constraint of constant RBC surface area. Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method is used to solve the Navier-Stokes equation coupled with the Plasma-RBC membrane and Cytoplasm- RBC membrane interaction. To verify the method, the motion of a single RBC is simulated in Poiseuille flow and compared with the results reported earlier. Typical motion and deformation mechanism of the RBC is observed.

Stability and convergence of a finite volume method for the space fractional advection-dispersion equation

We consider the space fractional advection–dispersion equation, which is obtained from the classical advection–diffusion equation by replacing the spatial derivatives with a generalised derivative of fractional order. We derive a finite volume method that utilises fractionally-shifted Grünwald formulae for the discretisation of the fractional derivative, to numerically solve the equation on a finite domain with homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions. We prove that the method is stable and convergent when coupled with an implicit timestepping strategy. Results of numerical experiments are presented that support the theoretical analysis.

Rule-based transit signal priority control method using a real-time transit travel time prediction model

An advanced rule-based Transit Signal Priority (TSP) control method is presented in this paper. An on-line transit travel time prediction model is the key component of the proposed method, which enables the selection of the most appropriate TSP plans for the prevailing traffic and transit condition. The new method also adopts a priority plan re-development feature that enables modifying or even switching the already implemented priority plan to accommodate changes in the traffic conditions. The proposed method utilizes conventional green extension and red truncation strategies and also two new strategies including green truncation and queue clearance. The new method is evaluated against a typical active TSP strategy and also the base case scenario assuming no TSP control in microsimulation. The evaluation results indicate that the proposed method can produce significant benefits in reducing the bus delay time and improving the service regularity with negligible adverse impacts on the non-transit street traffic.

Bayesian algorithms with applications

Advances in algorithms for approximate sampling from a multivariable target function have led to solutions to challenging statistical inference problems that would otherwise not be considered by the applied scientist. Such sampling algorithms are particularly relevant to Bayesian statistics, since the target function is the posterior distribution of the unobservables given the observables. In this thesis we develop, adapt and apply Bayesian algorithms, whilst addressing substantive applied problems in biology and medicine as well as other applications. For an increasing number of high-impact research problems, the primary models of interest are often sufficiently complex that the likelihood function is computationally intractable. Rather than discard these models in favour of inferior alternatives, a class of Bayesian "likelihoodfree" techniques (often termed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)) has emerged in the last few years, which avoids direct likelihood computation through repeated sampling of data from the model and comparing observed and simulated summary statistics. In Part I of this thesis we utilise sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methodology to develop new algorithms for ABC that are more efficient in terms of the number of model simulations required and are almost black-box since very little algorithmic tuning is required. In addition, we address the issue of deriving appropriate summary statistics to use within ABC via a goodness-of-fit statistic and indirect inference. Another important problem in statistics is the design of experiments. That is, how one should select the values of the controllable variables in order to achieve some design goal. The presences of parameter and/or model uncertainty are computational obstacles when designing experiments but can lead to inefficient designs if not accounted for correctly. The Bayesian framework accommodates such uncertainties in a coherent way. If the amount of uncertainty is substantial, it can be of interest to perform adaptive designs in order to accrue information to make better decisions about future design points. This is of particular interest if the data can be collected sequentially. In a sense, the current posterior distribution becomes the new prior distribution for the next design decision. Part II of this thesis creates new algorithms for Bayesian sequential design to accommodate parameter and model uncertainty using SMC. The algorithms are substantially faster than previous approaches allowing the simulation properties of various design utilities to be investigated in a more timely manner. Furthermore the approach offers convenient estimation of Bayesian utilities and other quantities that are particularly relevant in the presence of model uncertainty. Finally, Part III of this thesis tackles a substantive medical problem. A neurological disorder known as motor neuron disease (MND) progressively causes motor neurons to no longer have the ability to innervate the muscle fibres, causing the muscles to eventually waste away. When this occurs the motor unit effectively ‘dies’. There is no cure for MND, and fatality often results from a lack of muscle strength to breathe. The prognosis for many forms of MND (particularly amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS)) is particularly poor, with patients usually only surviving a small number of years after the initial onset of disease. Measuring the progress of diseases of the motor units, such as ALS, is a challenge for clinical neurologists. Motor unit number estimation (MUNE) is an attempt to directly assess underlying motor unit loss rather than indirect techniques such as muscle strength assessment, which generally is unable to detect progressions due to the body’s natural attempts at compensation. Part III of this thesis builds upon a previous Bayesian technique, which develops a sophisticated statistical model that takes into account physiological information about motor unit activation and various sources of uncertainties. More specifically, we develop a more reliable MUNE method by applying marginalisation over latent variables in order to improve the performance of a previously developed reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. We make other subtle changes to the model and algorithm to improve the robustness of the approach.

Grouping people in social networks using a weighted multi-constraints clustering method

Grouping users in social networks is an important process that improves matching and recommendation activities in social networks. The data mining methods of clustering can be used in grouping the users in social networks. However, the existing general purpose clustering algorithms perform poorly on the social network data due to the special nature of users' data in social networks. One main reason is the constraints that need to be considered in grouping users in social networks. Another reason is the need of capturing large amount of information about users which imposes computational complexity to an algorithm. In this paper, we propose a scalable and effective constraint-based clustering algorithm based on a global similarity measure that takes into consideration the users' constraints and their importance in social networks. Each constraint's importance is calculated based on the occurrence of this constraint in the dataset. Performance of the algorithm is demonstrated on a dataset obtained from an online dating website using internal and external evaluation measures. Results show that the proposed algorithm is able to increases the accuracy of matching users in social networks by 10% in comparison to other algorithms.

Assessing the impacts of lifetime sun exposure on skin damage and skin aging using a non-invasive method

Background: Ultraviolet radiation exposure during an individuals' lifetime is a known risk factor for the development of skin cancer. However, less evidence is available on assessing the relationship between lifetime sun exposure and skin damage and skin aging. Objectives: This study aims to assess the relationship between lifetime sun exposure and skin damage and skin aging using a non-invasive measure of exposure. Methods: We recruited 180 participants (73 males, 107 females) aged 18-83 years. Digital imaging of skin hyper-pigmentation (skin damage) and skin wrinkling (skin aging) on the facial region was measured. Lifetime sun exposure (presented as hours) was calculated from the participants' age multiplied by the estimated annual time outdoors for each year of life. We analyzed the effects of lifetime sun exposure on skin damage and skin aging. We adjust for the influence of age, sex, occupation, history of skin cancer, eye color, hair color, and skin color. Results: There were non-linear relationships between lifetime sun exposure and skin damage and skin aging. Younger participant's skin is much more sensitive to sun exposure than those who were over 50 years of age. As such, there were negative interactions between lifetime sun exposure and age. Age had linear effects on skin damage and skin aging. Conclusion: The data presented showed that self reported lifetime sun exposure was positively associated with skin damage and skin aging, in particular, the younger people. Future health promotion for sun exposure needs to pay attention to this group for skin cancer prevention messaging. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting the localized surface plasmon resonances of spherical nanoparticles on substrate : electrostatic eigenmode method

We present experimental results that demonstrate that the wavelength of the fundamental localised surface plasmon resonance for spherical gold nanoparticles on glass can be predicted using a simple, one line analytical formula derived from the electrostatic eigenmode method. This allows the role of the substrate in lifting mode degeneracies to be determined, and the role of local environment refractive indices on the plasmon resonance to be investigated. The effect of adding silica to the casting solution in minimizing nanopaticle agglomeration is also discussed.

A hybrid smoothed finite element method (H-SFEM) to solid mechanics problems

In this paper, a hybrid smoothed finite element method (H-SFEM) is developed for solid mechanics problems by combining techniques of finite element method (FEM) and Node-based smoothed finite element method (NS-FEM) using a triangular mesh. A parameter is equipped into H-SFEM, and the strain field is further assumed to be the weighted average between compatible stains from FEM and smoothed strains from NS-FEM. We prove theoretically that the strain energy obtained from the H-SFEM solution lies in between those from the compatible FEM solution and the NS-FEM solution, which guarantees the convergence of H-SFEM. Intensive numerical studies are conducted to verify these theoretical results and show that (1) the upper and lower bound solutions can always be obtained by adjusting ; (2) there exists a preferable at which the H-SFEM can produce the ultrasonic accurate solution.

Effect of preparation method of palygorskite-supported Fe and Ni catalysts on catalytic cracking of biomass tar

In this study, the effect of catalyst preparation and additive precursors on the catalytic decomposition of biomass using palygorskite-supported Fe and Ni catalysts was investigated. The catalysts were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). It is concluded that the most active additive precursor was Fe(NO3)3·9H2O. As for the catalyst preparation method, co-precipitation had superiority over incipient wetness impregnation at low Fe loadings.

Measuring a destination’s brand equity between 2003 and 2012 using the consumer-based brand equity (CBBE) hierarchy

Given the increasing investments being made in brand development by destination marketing organisations (DMO) since the 1990s, including rebranding and repositioning, more research is needed to enhance understanding of how to effectively monitor destination brand performance over time. This paper reports the results of a study of brand performance of a competitive set of destinations, in their most important market, between 2003 and 2012. Brand performance was measured from the perspective of consumer perceptions, based on the concept of consumer-based brand equity (CBBE). A structured questionnaire was administered to different samples in 2003, 2007 and 2012. The results indicated minimal changes in perceptions of the five destinations over the 10 year period. Due to the commonality of challenges faced by DMOs worldwide, it is suggested the CBBE hierarchy provides destination marketers with a practical tool for evaluating brand performance over time; in terms of measures of effectiveness of past marketing communications, as well as indicators of future performance. In addition, and importantly, CBBE also provides transparent accountability measures for stakeholders. While the topic of destination image has been one of the most popular in the tourism literature, there has been a paucity of research published in relation to the temporal aspect of consumer perceptions. This is a rare investigation into the measurement of perceptions of destinations over a 10 year period.