919 resultados para Markov-switching modelate
Resumo:
Computational models complement laboratory experimentation for efficient identification of MHC-binding peptides and T-cell epitopes. Methods for prediction of MHC-binding peptides include binding motifs, quantitative matrices, artificial neural networks, hidden Markov models, and molecular modelling. Models derived by these methods have been successfully used for prediction of T-cell epitopes in cancer, autoimmunity, infectious disease, and allergy. For maximum benefit, the use of computer models must be treated as experiments analogous to standard laboratory procedures and performed according to strict standards. This requires careful selection of data for model building, and adequate testing and validation. A range of web-based databases and MHC-binding prediction programs are available. Although some available prediction programs for particular MHC alleles have reasonable accuracy, there is no guarantee that all models produce good quality predictions. In this article, we present and discuss a framework for modelling, testing, and applications of computational methods used in predictions of T-cell epitopes. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Recently, conservationists have debated whether consumers of animal and plant potency products used to treat erectile dysfunction (ED) in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) might be switching to Viagra, consequently consuming fewer of these animals and plants. To address this question, a survey examined the medical decisions of male consumers of TCM in Hong Kong who were over the age of 50. As predicted, these consumers reported selectively switching to Western medicines to treat ED, but not to treat other health ailments. These findings provide support for the possibility that Viagra may have conservation benefits for certain species.
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CD40-1igand (CD40-L), a member of the tumour necrosis family of transmembrane glycoproteins, is rapidly and transiently expressed on the surface of recently activated CD4+ T cells. CD40 is expressed by B cells, monocytes and dendritic cells. Interactions between CD40-L and CD40 induce B cell proliferation, differentiation, immunoglobulin production and isotype switching as well as monocyte activation and dendritic cell differentiation. Since the rheumatoid synovium is characterized by T cell activation, B cell immunoglobulin production, monocyte cytokine production and dendritic cell differentiation, the expression and function of CD40-L in RA was examined. RA synovial fluid (SF) T ceils expressed CD40-L mRNA, as well as low level cell surface CD40-L. A subset of CD4+ RA synovial fluid T cells could express cell surface CD40-L within 15 rain of in vitro activation even in the presence of cycloheximide. CD40-L expressed by RA SF T cells was functional, since RA SF T cells, but not normal PB T cells, stimulated CD40-L dependent B cell immunoglobulin production in the absence of in vitro T cell activation. These data indicate that SF T cells express functionally significant levels of surface CD40-L, and have the potential for rapid upregulation of surface expression from preformed CD40-L stores. Thus, CD40-L is likely to play a central role in the perpetuation of RA by induction of Ig synthesis, cytokine production and dendritic cell differentiation. Moreover, the data provide important evidence of recent activation of RA synovial T cells. Of importance, blockade of CD40-L may prove highly effective as a disease modifying therapy for RA.
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In a recent paper [16], one of us identified all of the quasi-stationary distributions for a non-explosive, evanescent birth-death process for which absorption is certain, and established conditions for the existence of the corresponding limiting conditional distributions. Our purpose is to extend these results in a number of directions. We shall consider separately two cases depending on whether or not the process is evanescent. In the former case we shall relax the condition that absorption is certain. Furthermore, we shall allow for the possibility that the minimal process might be explosive, so that the transition rates alone will not necessarily determine the birth-death process uniquely. Although we shall be concerned mainly with the minimal process, our most general results hold for any birth-death process whose transition probabilities satisfy both the backward and the forward Kolmogorov differential equations.
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With the aim to compare the cost of treatment for rheumatoid arthritis therapy with desease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDS) for a 48-month period, were studied five different treatment stage based on clinical protocols recommended by the Brazilian Society of Rheumatology, and then five therapy cycles. The analytical model based on the Markov Analysis, considered chaces for the patient continue in some stages or change between them according with a positive effect on outcomes. Only direct costs were comprised in the analyzed data, like drugs, materials and tests used for monitoring these patients. The results of the model show that the stage in with metotrexato drug is used like monotherapy was cost-effective (R$ 113,900,00 for patient during 48 months), followed by refractory patient (R$ 1,554,483,43), those that use therapy triplicate followed by infleximable drug (R$ 1, 701, 286.76), the metotrexato intolearant patient (R$ 2,629,919,14), and final the result from that use metotrexato and infliximable in the beginning (R$ 9,292,879,31). The sensitivity analysis confirm this results, when alternate the efficacy of metotrexato and infliximabe.
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For the purpose of developing a longitudinal model to predict hand-and-foot syndrome (HFS) dynamics in patients receiving capecitabine, data from two large phase III studies were used. Of 595 patients in the capecitabine arms, 400 patients were randomly selected to build the model, and the other 195 were assigned for model validation. A score for risk of developing HFS was modeled using the proportional odds model, a sigmoidal maximum effect model driven by capecitabine accumulation as estimated through a kinetic-pharmacodynamic model and a Markov process. The lower the calculated creatinine clearance value at inclusion, the higher was the risk of HFS. Model validation was performed by visual and statistical predictive checks. The predictive dynamic model of HFS in patients receiving capecitabine allows the prediction of toxicity risk based on cumulative capecitabine dose and previous HFS grade. This dose-toxicity model will be useful in developing Bayesian individual treatment adaptations and may be of use in the clinic.
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Hepatitis B is a worldwide health problem affecting about 2 billion people and more than 350 million are chronic carriers of the virus. Nine HBV genotypes (A to I) have been described. The geographical distribution of HBV genotypes is not completely understood due to the limited number of samples from some parts of the world. One such example is Colombia, in which few studies have described the HBV genotypes. In this study, we characterized HBV genotypes in 143 HBsAg-positive volunteer blood donors from Colombia. A fragment of 1306 bp partially comprising HBsAg and the DNA polymerase coding regions (S/POL) was amplified and sequenced. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses were conducted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to obtain the maximum clade credibility (MCC) tree using BEAST v.1.5.3. Of all samples, 68 were positive and 52 were successfully sequenced. Genotype F was the most prevalent in this population (77%) - subgenotypes F3 (75%) and Fib (2%). Genotype G (7.7%) and subgenotype A2 (15.3%) were also found. Genotype G sequence analysis suggests distinct introductions of this genotype in the country. Furthermore, we estimated the time of the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) for each HBV/F subgenotype and also for Colombian F3 sequences using two different datasets: (i) 77 sequences comprising 1306 bp of S/POL region and (ii) 283 sequences comprising 681 bp of S/POL region. We also used two other previously estimated evolutionary rates: (i) 2.60 x 10(-4) s/s/y and (ii) 1.5 x 10(-5) s/s/y. Here we report the HBV genotypes circulating in Colombia and estimated the TMRCA for the four different subgenotypes of genotype F. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a frequent cause of acute and chronic hepatitis and a leading cause for cirrhosis of the liver and hepatocellular carcinoma. HCV is classified in six major genotypes and more than 70 subtypes. In Colombian blood banks, serum samples were tested for anti-HCV antibodies using a third-generation ELISA. The aim of this study was to characterize the viral sequences in plasma of 184 volunteer blood donors who attended the ""Banco Nacional de Sangre de la Cruz Roja Colombiana,`` Bogota, Colombia. Three different HCV genomic regions were amplified by nested PCR. The first of these was a segment of 180 bp of the 5`UTR region to confirm the previous diagnosis by ELISA. From those that were positive to the 5`UTR region, two further segments were amplified for genotyping and subtyping by phylogenetic analysis: a segment of 380 bp from the NS5B region; and a segment of 391 bp from the E1 region. The distribution of HCV subtypes was: 1b (82.8%), 1a (5.7%), 2a (5.7%), 2b (2.8%), and 3a (2.8%). By applying Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation, it was estimated that HCV-1b was introduced into Bogota around 1950. Also, this subtype spread at an exponential rate between about 1970 to about 1990, after which transmission of HCV was reduced by anti-HCV testing of this population. Among Colombian blood donors, HCV genotype 1b is the most frequent genotype, especially in large urban conglomerates such as Bogota, as is the case in other South American countries. J. Med. Virol. 82: 1889-1898, 2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
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Molecular epidemiological data concerning the hepatitis B virus (HBV) in Chile are not known completely. Since the HBV genotype F is the most prevalent in the country, the goal of this study was to obtain full HBV genome sequences from patients infected chronically in order to determine their subgenotypes and the occurrence of resistance-associated mutations. Twenty-one serum samples from antiviral drug-naive patients with chronic hepatitis B were subjected to full-length PCR amplification, and both strands of the whole genomes were fully sequenced. Phylogenetic analyses were performed along with reference sequences available from GenBank (n = 290). The sequences were aligned using Clustal X and edited in the SE-AL software. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses were conducted by Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations (MCMC) for 10 million generations in order to obtain the substitution tree using BEAST. The sequences were also analyzed for the presence of primary drug resistance mutations using CodonCode Aligner Software. The phylogenetic analyses indicated that all sequences were found to be the HBV subgenotype F1b, clustered into four different groups, suggesting that diverse lineages of this subgenotype may be circulating within this population of Chilean patients. J. Med. Virol. 83: 1530-1536, 2011. (C) 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
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Introduction. Previous research has demonstrated that sildenafil citrate users alter dosing-sexual attempt behavior when switched to tadalafil. The impact of geography and culture on sexual behavior with phosphodiesterase type 5 (PDE5) inhibitor treatment has not been fully investigated. Aim. To describe and compare the changes in dosing-sexual attempt behavior with sildenafil citrate vs. tadalafil treatment across four distinct geographies: Asia, Australia/New Zealand (ANZ), Central Eastern Europe/Middle East (CEE/ME), and Latin America (LA). Methods. Data from a single-arm, open-label clinical trial conducted in 21 countries from November 2002 to May 2004 were used in this analysis. Men with erectile dysfunction and a history of >= 6-week prior sildenafil citrate use continued sildenafil citrate treatment for 4 weeks then switched to tadalafil for 8 weeks. Dosing instructions were provided. Main Outcomes Measures. Timing of dose and sexual intercourse was assessed through patient diaries for the final 4 weeks of each treatment period. Results. A total of 2,760 men were enrolled: Asia 15.8%; ANZ 29.4%; CEE/ME 19.7%; LA 35.1%. The median time from dosing to intercourse was significantly increased during tadalafil treatment across all geographical regions; however, the magnitude of increase differed significantly by geography (P < 0.0001). The Asian cohort demonstrated the shortest duration between dosing and sexual intercourse attempts (irrespective of drug), and altered sexual behavior the least upon switching to tadalafil. The ANZ cohort demonstrated the longest duration between dosing and sexual intercourse attempts (irrespective of drug), and altered sexual behavior the most upon switching to tadalafil. Conclusion. Men with a history of established sildenafil citrate use alter their dose-attempt behavior when treated with tadalafil irrespective of geography. However, the extent to which sexual behavior alters is not uniform across geographical regions, suggesting that dosing instructions and duration of drug effectiveness, in combination with personal and cultural preferences, may determine sexual behavior with PDE5 inhibitor use. Rubio-Aurioles E, Glina S, Abdo CHN, Hernandez-Serrano R, Rampazzo C, Sotomayor M, West TM, Gallagher GL, and Lenero E. Timing of dose relative to sexual intercourse attempt in previous sildenafil citrate users treated with tadalafil: A geographical comparison from a single arm, open-label study. J Sex Med 2009;6:2836-2850.
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PRES is a neuroclinical and radiological syndrome that results from treatment with calcineurin inhibitor immunosuppressives. Severe hypertension is commonly present, but some patients may be normotensive. We report herein two children who received liver transplants, as treatment for biliary atresia in the first case and for Alagille`s syndrome in the second one. In the early postoperative, both patients presented hypertension and seizures. In both cases, the image findings suggested the diagnosis of PRES. The CT scan showed alterations in the posterior area of the brain, and brain MRI demonstrated parietal and occipital areas of high signal intensity. Both children were treated by switching the immunosuppressive regimen and controlling arterial blood pressure. They displayed full recuperation without any neurologic sequelae. Probably, the pathophysiology of PRES results from sparse sympathetic innervation of the vertebrobasilar circulation, which is responsible for supplying blood to the posterior areas of the brain. In conclusion, all liver-transplanted children who present with neurological symptoms PRES should be considered in the differential diagnosis, although this is a rare complication. As treatment, we recommend rigorous control of arterial blood pressure and switching the immunosuppressive regimen.
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Background. Renal failure is the most important comorbidity in patients with heart transplantation, it is associated with increased mortality. The major cause of renal dysfunction is the toxic effects of calcineurin inhibitors (CNI). Sirolimus, a proliferation signal inhibitor, is an imunossupressant recently introduced in cardiac transplantation. Its nonnephrotoxic properties make it an attractive immunosuppressive agent for patients with renal dysfunction. In this study, we evaluated the improvement in renal function after switching the CNI to sirolimus among patients with new-onset kidney dysfunction after heart transplantation. Methods. The study included orthotopic cardiac transplant (OHT) patients who required discontinuation of CNI due to worsening renal function (creatinine clearance <50 mL/min). We excluded subjects who had another indication for initiation of sirolimus, that is, rejection, malignancy, or allograft vasculopathy. The patients were followed for 6 months. The creatinine clearance (CrCl) was estimated according to the Cockcroft-Gault equation using the baseline weight and the serum creatinine at the time of introduction of sirolimus and 6 months there after. Nine patients were included, 7 (78%) were males and the overall mean age was 60.1 +/- 12.3 years and time since transplantation 8.7 +/- 6.1 years. The allograft was beyond 1 year in all patients. There was a significant improvement in the serum creatinine (2.98 +/- 0.9 to 1.69 +/- 0.5 mg/dL, P = .01) and CrCl (24.9 +/- 6.5 to 45.7 +/- 17.2 mL/min, P = .005) at 6 months follow-up. Conclusion. The replacement of CNI by sirolimus for imunosuppressive therapy for patients with renal failure after OHT was associated with a significant improvement in renal function after 6 months.
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Background: At least for a subset of patients, the clinical diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) may represent an intermediate stage between normal aging and dementia. Nevertheless, the patterns of transition of cognitive states between normal cognitive aging and MCI to dementia are not well established. In this study we address the pattern of transitions between cognitive states in patients with MCI and healthy controls, prior to the conversion to dementia. Methods: 139 subjects (78% women, mean age, 68.5 +/- 6.1 years; mean educational level, 11.7 +/- 5.4 years) were consecutively assessed in a memory clinic with a standardized clinical and neuropsychological protocol, and classified as cognitively healthy (normal controls) or with MCI (including subtypes) at baseline. These subjects underwent annual reassessments (mean duration of follow-up: 2.7 +/- 1.1 years), in which cognitive state was ascertained independently of prior diagnoses. The pattern of transitions of the cognitive state was determined by Markov chain analysis. Results: The transitions from one cognitive state to another varied substantially between MCI subtypes. Single-domain MCI (amnestic and non-amnestic) more frequently returned to normal cognitive state upon follow-up (22.5% and 21%, respectively). Among subjects who progressed to Alzheimer`s disease (AD), the most common diagnosis immediately prior conversion was multiple-domain MCI (85%). Conclusion: The clinical diagnosis of MCI and its subtypes yields groups of patients with heterogeneous patterns of transitions between one given cognitive state to another. The presence of more severe and widespread cognitive deficits, as indicated by the group of multiple-domain amnestic MCI may be a better predictor of AD than single-domain amnestic or non-amnestic deficits. These higher-risk individuals could probably be the best candidates for the development of preventive strategies and early treatment for the disease.
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Introduction Different modalities of palliation for obstructive symptoms in patients with unresectable esophageal cancer (EC) exist. However, these therapeutic alternatives have significant differences in costs and effectiveness. Methods A Markov model was designed to compare the cost-effectiveness (CE) of self-expandable stent (SES), brachytherapy and laser in the palliation of unresectable EC. Patients were assigned to one of the strategies, and the improvement in swallowing function was compared given the treatment efficacy, probability of survival, and risks of complications associated to each strategy. Probabilities and parameters for distribution were based on a 9-month time frame. Results Under the base-case scenario, laser has the lowest CE ratio, followed by brachytherapy at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $4,400.00, and SES is a dominated strategy. In the probabilistic analysis, laser is the strategy with the highest probability of cost-effectiveness for willingness to pay (WTP) values lower than $3,201 and brachytherapy for all WTP yielding a positive net health benefit (NHB) (threshold $4,440). The highest probability of cost-effectiveness for brachytherapy is 96%, and consequently, selection of suboptimal strategies can lead to opportunity losses for the US health system, ranging from US$ 4.32 to US$ 38.09 million dollars over the next 5-20 years. Conclusion Conditional to the WTP and current US Medicare costs, palliation of unresectable esophageal cancers with brachytherapy provides the largest amount of NHB and is the strategy with the highest probability of CE. However, some level of uncertainly remains, and wrong decisions will be made until further knowledge is acquired.
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Previous studies have shown that patients with major depression have an interhemispheric imbalance between right and left prefrontal and motor cortex. We aimed to investigate the interhemispheric interactions in patients with major depression using repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS). Thirteen patients with major depression and 14 age-matched healthy subjects participated in this study. Corticospinal excitability before and after 1 Hz rTMS (applied to the left primary motor cortex) was assessed in the left and right motor cortex and these results were compared with those in healthy subjects. There was a significant difference in the interhemispheric effects between patients with depression and healthy subjects. In healthy subjects, 1 Hz rTMS significantly decreased corticospinal excitability in the stimulated, left hemisphere and increased it in the contralateral, right hemisphere. In depressed subjects, 1 Hz rTMS also decreased corticospinal excitability in the left hemisphere; however, it induced no significant changes in corticospinal excitability in the contralateral, right hemisphere. In addition, there was a significant correlation between the degree of interhemispheric modulation and the severity of the depression as indexed by the Beck Depression Inventory scores. Our findings showing a decreased interhemispheric modulation in patients with major depression are consistent with the notion that mood disorders are associated with slow interhemispheric switching mechanisms.