Use of derivatives in public sector organisations

The present paper develops and tests a model explaining public sector derivative use in terms of budget discrepancy minimization. The model is different from private sector models. Private sector models do not readily translate into the public sector, which typically faces different objectives. Hypotheses are developed and tested using logistic regression over a sample of Australian Commonwealth public sector organizations. It is found that public sector organization derivative use is positively correlated with liabilities and size consistent with the hypotheses concerning budget discrepancy management.

Depression in young adolescents: Investigations using 2 and 3 factor versions of the parental bonding instrument

Associations between parenting style and depressive symptomatology in a community sample of young adolescents (N = 2596) were investigated using self-report measures including the Parental Bonding Instrument and the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Specifically, the 25-item 2-factor and 3-factor models by Parker et al. (1979), Kendler's (1996) 16-item 3-factor model, and Parker's (1983) quadrant model for the Parental Bonding Instrument were compared. Data analysis included analysis of variance and logistic regression. Reanalysis of Parker's original scale indicates that overprotection is composed of separate factors: intrusiveness (at the individual level) and restrictiveness (in the social context). All models reveal significant independent contributions from paternal care, maternal care, and maternal overprotection (2-factor) or intrusiveness (3-factor) to moderate and serious depressive symptomatology, controlling for sex and family living arrangement. Additive rather than multiplicative interactions between care and overprotection were found. Regardless of the level of parental care and affection, clinicians should note that maternal intrusiveness is strongly associated with adverse psychosocial health in young adolescents.

Correlates of victimisation amongst people with psychosis

Background While much attention has been given to the prediction of violent offending behaviour amongst people with psychotic disorders, less attention has been given to the fact that these same individuals are often the victims of violence. In this paper, we examine victimisation amongst participants in a prevalence study of psychosis, and describe demographic and clinical correlates of victimisation. Method The study was based on the Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing - Low Prevalence (Psychotic) Disorders. The participants were asked if they had been a victim of violence in the previous year. The association between selected demographic and clinical variables and being a victim of violence was examined using logistic regression. Results Of the 962 individuals with psychosis, 172 reported being a victim of violence in the past 12 months (17.9 %). The odds of being a victim were increased in those who: (a) were female, (b) were homeless, (c) had a lifetime history of substance abuse, (d) had been arrested in the previous 12 months, (e) had poorer social and occupational function, and (f) had higher scores on the disorganisation summary score. Conclusions Clinicians should remain mindful that one out of every six individuals with a psychotic disorder reports being a victim of violence in the previous year. Models of care that address issues related to symptom relief, accommodation, and exposure to high-crime areas may reduce the rates of victimisation amongst those with psychotic disorders.

Improving the efficiency of wildlife monitoring by estimating detectability: a case study of foxes (Vulpes vulpes) on the Eyre Peninsula, South Australia

Demonstrating the existence of trends in monitoring data is of increasing practical importance to conservation managers wishing to preserve threatened species or reduce the impact of pest species. However, the ability to do so can be compromised if the species in question has low detectability and the true occupancy level or abundance of the species is thus obscured. Zero-inflated models that explicitly model detectability improve the ability to make sound ecological inference in such situations. In this paper we apply an occupancy model including detectability to data from the initial stages of a fox-monitoring program on the Eyre Peninsula, South Australia. We find that detectability is extremely low (< 18%) and varies according to season and the presence or absence of roadside vegetation. We show that simple methods of using monitoring data to inform management, such as plotting the raw data or performing logistic regression, fail to accurately diagnose either the status of the fox population or its trajectory over time. We use the results of the detectability model to consider how future monitoring could be redesigned to achieve efficiency gains. A wide range of monitoring programs could benefit from similar analyses, as part of an active adaptive approach to improving monitoring and management.

Modeling the age of tropical moist forest fragments in heavily-cleared lowland landscapes of Colombia

Increasingly, large areas of native tropical forests are being transformed into a mosaic of human dominated land uses with scattered mature remnants and secondary forests. In general, at the end of the land clearing process, the landscape will have two forest components: a stable component of surviving mature forests, and a dynamic component of secondary forests of different ages. As the proportion of mature forests continues to decline, secondary forests play an increasing role in the conservation and restoration of biodiversity. This paper aims to predict and explain spatial and temporal patterns in the age of remnant mature and secondary forests in lowland Colombian landscapes. We analyse the age distributions of forest fragments, using detailed temporal land cover data derived from aerial photographs. Ordinal logistic regression analysis was applied to model the spatial dynamics of mature and secondary forest patches. In particular, the effect of soil fertility, accessibility and auto-correlated neighbourhood terms on forest age and time of isolation of remnant patches was assessed. In heavily transformed landscapes, forests account for approximately 8% of the total landscape area, of which three quarters are comprised of secondary forests. Secondary forest growth adjacent to mature forest patches increases mean patch size and core area, and therefore plays an important ecological role in maintaining landscape structure. The regression models show that forest age is positively associated with the amount of neighbouring forest, and negatively associated with the amount of neighbouring secondary vegetation, so the older the forest is the less secondary vegetation there is adjacent to it. Accessibility and soil fertility also have a negative but variable influence on the age of forest remnants. The probability of future clearing if current conditions hold is higher for regenerated than mature forests. The challenge of biodiversity conservation and restoration in dynamic and spatially heterogeneous landscape mosaics composed of mature and secondary forests is discussed. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Maternal alcohol use disorder and offspring ADHD: disentangling genetic and environmental effects using a children-of-twins design

Background. Children of alcoholics are significantly more likely to experience high-risk environmental exposures, including prenatal substance exposure, and are more likely to exhibit externalizing problems [e.g. attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD)]. While there is evidence that genetic influences and prenatal nicotine and/or alcohol exposure play separate roles in determining risk of ADHD, little has been done on determining the joint roles that genetic risk associated with maternal alcohol use disorder (AUD) and prenatal risk factors play in determining risk of ADHD. Method. Using a children-of-twins design, diagnostic telephone interview data from high-risk families (female monozygotic and dizygotic twins concordant or discordant for AUD as parents) and control families targeted from a large Australian twin cohort were analyzed using logistic regression models. Results. Offspring of twins with a history of AUD, as well as offspring of non-AUD monozygotic twins whose co-twin had AUD, were significantly more likely to exhibit ADHD than offspring of controls. This pattern is consistent with a genetic explanation for the association between maternal AUD and increased offspring risk of ADHD. Adjustment for prenatal smoking, which remained significantly predictive, did not remove the significant genetic association between maternal AUD and offspring ADHD. Conclusions. While maternal smoking during pregnancy probably contributes to the association between maternal AUD and offspring ADHD risk, the evidence for a significant genetic correlation suggests: (i) pleiotropic genetic effects, with some genes that influence risk of AUD also influencing vulnerability to ADHD; or (ii) ADHD is a direct risk-factor for AUD.

Epidemiology of recreational exposure to freshwater cyanobacteria - an international prospective cohort study

Background: Case studies and anecdotal reports have documented a range of acute illnesses associated with exposure to cyanobacteria and their toxins in recreational waters. The epidemiological data to date are limited; we sought to improve on the design of some previously conducted studies in order to facilitate revision and refinement of guidelines for exposure to cyanobacteria in recreational waters. Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted to investigate the incidence of acute symptoms in individuals exposed, through recreational activities, to low ( cell surface area < 2.4 mm(2)/mL), medium ( 2.4 - 12.0 mm(2)/mL) and high (> 12.0 mm(2)/mL) levels of cyanobacteria in lakes and rivers in southeast Queensland, the central coast area of New South Wales, and northeast and central Florida. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were employed; models adjusted for region, age, smoking, prior history of asthma, hay fever or skin disease ( eczema or dermatitis) and clustering by household. Results: Of individuals approached, 3,595 met the eligibility criteria, 3,193 (89%) agreed to participate and 1,331 (37%) completed both the questionnaire and follow-up interview. Respiratory symptoms were 2.1 (95% CI: 1.1 - 4.0) times more likely to be reported by subjects exposed to high levels of cyanobacteria than by those exposed to low levels. Similarly, when grouping all reported symptoms, individuals exposed to high levels of cyanobacteria were 1.7 ( 95% CI: 1.0 - 2.8) times more likely to report symptoms than their low-level cyanobacteria-exposed counterparts. Conclusion: A significant increase in reporting of minor self-limiting symptoms, particularly respiratory symptoms, was associated with exposure to higher levels of cyanobacteria of mixed genera. We suggest that exposure to cyanobacteria based on total cell surface area above 12 mm(2)/mL could result in increased incidence of symptoms. The potential for severe, life-threatening cyanobacteria-related illness is likely to be greater in recreational waters that have significant levels of cyanobacterial toxins, so future epidemiological investigations should be directed towards recreational exposure to cyanotoxins.

Development and evaluation of a youth mental health community awareness campaign - The Compass Strategy

Background: Early detection and treatment of mental disorders in adolescents and young adults can lead to better health outcomes. Mental health literacy is a key to early recognition and help seeking. Whilst a number of population health initiatives have attempted to improve mental health literacy, none to date have specifically targeted young people nor have they applied the rigorous standards of population health models now accepted as best practice in other health areas. This paper describes the outcomes from the application of a health promotion model to the development, implementation and evaluation of a community awareness campaign designed to improve mental health literacy and early help seeking amongst young people. Method: The Compass Strategy was implemented in the western metropolitan Melbourne and Barwon regions of Victoria, Australia. The Precede-Proceed Model guided the population assessment, campaign strategy development and evaluation. The campaign included the use of multimedia, a website, and an information telephone service. Multiple levels of evaluation were conducted. This included a cross-sectional telephone survey of mental health literacy undertaken before and after 14 months of the campaign using a quasi-experimental design. Randomly selected independent samples of 600 young people aged 12 - 25 years from the experimental region and another 600 from a comparison region were interviewed at each time point. A series of binary logistic regression analyses were used to measure the association between a range of campaign outcome variables and the predictor variables of region and time. Results: The program was judged to have an impact on the following variables, as indicated by significant region-by-time interaction effects ( p < 0.05): awareness of mental health campaigns, self-identified depression, help for depression sought in the previous year, correct estimate of prevalence of mental health problems, increased awareness of suicide risk, and a reduction in perceived barriers to help seeking. These effects may be underestimated because media distribution error resulted in a small amount of print material leaking into the comparison region. Conclusion: We believe this is the first study to apply the rigorous standards of a health promotion model including the use of a control region to a mental health population intervention. The program achieved many of its aims despite the relatively short duration and moderate intensity of the campaign.

Unplanned land clearing of Colombian rainforests: Spreading like disease?

Deforestation often occurs as temporal waves and in localized fronts termed 'deforestation hotspots' driven by economic pulses and population pressure. Of particular concern for conservation planning are 'biodiversity hotspots' where high concentrations of endemic species undergo rapid loss and fragmentation of habitat. We investigate the deforestation process in Caqueta, a biodiversity hotspot and major colonization front of the Colombian Amazon using multi-temporal satellite imagery of the periods 1989-1996-1999-2002. The probabilities of deforestation and regeneration were modeled against soil fertility, accessibility and neighborhood terms, using logistic regression analysis. Deforestation and regeneration patterns and rates were highly variable across the colonization front. The regional average annual deforestation rate was 2.6%, but varied locally between -1.8% (regeneration) and 5.3%, with maximum rates in landscapes with 40-60% forest cover and highest edge densities, showing an analogous pattern to the spread of disease. Soil fertility and forest and secondary vegetation neighbors showed positive and significant relationships with the probability of deforestation. For forest regeneration, soil fertility had a significant negative effect while the other parameters were marginally significant. The logistic regression models across all periods showed a high level of discrimination power for both deforestation and forest regeneration, with ROC values > 0.80. We document the effect of policies and institutional changes on the land clearing process, such as the failed peace process between government and guerillas in 1999-2002, which redirected the spread of deforestation and increased forest regeneration. The implications for conservation in biologically rich areas, such as Caqueta are discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Modelling the conversion of Colombian lowland ecosystems since 1940: Drivers, patterns and rates

In biologically mega-diverse countries that are undergoing rapid human landscape transformation, it is important to understand and model the patterns of land cover change. This problem is particularly acute in Colombia, where lowland forests are being rapidly cleared for cropping and ranching. We apply a conceptual model with a nested set of a priori predictions to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover change for six 50-100 km(2) case study areas in lowland ecosystems of Colombia. Our analysis included soil fertility, a cost-distance function, and neighbourhood of forest and secondary vegetation cover as independent variables. Deforestation and forest regrowth are tested using logistic regression analysis and an information criterion approach to rank the models and predictor variables. The results show that: (a) overall the process of deforestation is better predicted by the full model containing all variables, while for regrowth the model containing only the auto-correlated neighbourhood terms is a better predictor; (b) overall consistent patterns emerge, although there are variations across regions and time; and (c) during the transformation process, both the order of importance and significance of the drivers change. Forest cover follows a consistent logistic decline pattern across regions, with introduced pastures being the major replacement land cover type. Forest stabilizes at 2-10% of the original cover, with an average patch size of 15.4 (+/- 9.2) ha. We discuss the implications of the observed patterns and rates of land cover change for conservation planning in countries with high rates of deforestation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors of osteoarthritis(OA) improvement in patients treated with Hylan G-F for knee OA.

Aim of study: Different criteria for treatment response were explored to identify predictors of OA improvement. Analyses were based on data from a previously reported 1-year randomized controlled trial of appropriate care with or without hylan G-F 20 in patients with knee OA. Methods: Five definitions of ‘‘patient responder’’ from baseline to month 12 were examined: at least 20% reduction in WOMAC pain score; at least 20% reduction in WOMAC pain score and at least 20% reduction in either the WOMAC stiffness or function score; OARSI responder criteria (Propositions A and B) for intra-articular drugs; and OMERACT-OARSI responder criteria (Proposition D). As an a posteriori analysis, multivariable logistic regression models for each definition of patient responder were developed using a forward selection method. The following variables were defined prior to modeling and considered in the model along with two-way interactions: age (O65 years), BMI, gender, X-ray grade (0, I, II vs III, IV), co-morbidity (1 or 2 conditions vs 3 or more), duration of OA in study knee (years), previous surgery of study knee, hylan G-F 20 injection technique, WOMAC pain, stiffness and function, and treatment group. Results: Hylan G-F 20 was a predictor of improvement for all patient responder definitions P ! 0.001; odds of improvement were 2.7 or higher for patients in the hylan G-F 20 group compared to appropriate care without hylan G-F 20. For three of the five patient responder definitions, X-ray grade was a predictor of improvement (P ! 0.10; lower X-ray grade increased the odds of improvement). For four of the five patient responder definitions, duration of OA was a predictor of improvement (P ! 0.10; shorter duration of OA increased the odds of improvement). Conclusion: Analyses showed that appropriate care with hylan G-F 20 is the dominant predictor of patient improvement. While high grade structural damage does not preclude a response, patients who are targeted early in the disease process when less structural damage has occurred, may have a greater chance of improvement.

Simulation of air traffic controllers' behaviour using the operator choice model

The Operator Choice Model (OCM) was developed to model the behaviour of operators attending to complex tasks involving interdependent concurrent activities, such as in Air Traffic Control (ATC). The purpose of the OCM is to provide a flexible framework for modelling and simulation that can be used for quantitative analyses in human reliability assessment, comparison between human computer interaction (HCI) designs, and analysis of operator workload. The OCM virtual operator is essentially a cycle of four processes: Scan Classify Decide Action Perform Action. Once a cycle is complete, the operator will return to the Scan process. It is also possible to truncate a cycle and return to Scan after each of the processes. These processes are described using Continuous Time Probabilistic Automata (CTPA). The details of the probability and timing models are specific to the domain of application, and need to be specified using domain experts. We are building an application of the OCM for use in ATC. In order to develop a realistic model we are calibrating the probability and timing models that comprise each process using experimental data from a series of experiments conducted with student subjects. These experiments have identified the factors that influence perception and decision making in simplified conflict detection and resolution tasks. This paper presents an application of the OCM approach to a simple ATC conflict detection experiment. The aim is to calibrate the OCM so that its behaviour resembles that of the experimental subjects when it is challenged with the same task. Its behaviour should also interpolate when challenged with scenarios similar to those used to calibrate it. The approach illustrated here uses logistic regression to model the classifications made by the subjects. This model is fitted to the calibration data, and provides an extrapolation to classifications in scenarios outside of the calibration data. A simple strategy is used to calibrate the timing component of the model, and the results for reaction times are compared between the OCM and the student subjects. While this approach to timing does not capture the full complexity of the reaction time distribution seen in the data from the student subjects, the mean and the tail of the distributions are similar.

Epidemiology of myopia in a United Kingdom urban child population

The Aston Eye Study (AES) was instigated in October 2005 to determine the distribution of refractive error and associated ocular biometry in a sample of UK urban school children. The AES is the first study to compare outcome measures separately in White, South Asian and Black children. Children were selected from two age groups (Year 2 children aged 6/7 years, Year8 children aged 12/13 years of age) using random cluster sampling of schools in Birmingham, West Midlands UK. To date, the AES has examined 598 children (302 Year 2,296 Year 8). Using open-field cycloplegic autorefraction, the overall prevalence of myopia (=-0.50D SER in either eye) determined was 19.6%, with a higher prevalence in older (29.4%) compared to younger (9.9%) children (p<0.001). Using multiple logistic regression models, the risk of myopia was higher in Year 8 South Asian compared to White children and higher in children attending grammar schools relative to comprehensive schools. In addition, the prevalence of uncorrected ametropia was found to be high (Year 8: 12.84%, Year 2: 15.23%), which will be of concern to bodies responsible for the implementation of school vision screening strategies. Biometric data using non-contact partial coherence interferometry revealed a contributory effect of axial length (AL) and central corneal radius (CR) on myopic refraction, resulting in a strong coefficient of determination of the AL/CR ratio on refractive error. Ocular biometric measures did not vary significantly as a function of ethnicity, suggesting a greater miscorrelation of components in susceptible ethnic groups to account for their higher myopia prevalence. Corneal radius was found to be steeper in myopes in both age groups, but was found to flatten with increasing axial length. Due to the inextricable link between myopia and axial elongation, the paradoxical finding of the cornea demands further longitudinal investigation, particularly in relation to myopia onset. Questionnaire analysis revealed a history of myopia in parents and siblings to be significantly associated with myopia in Year 8 children, with a dose-dependent rise in the odds ratio of myopia evident with increasing number of myopic parents. By classifying socioeconomic status (SES) using Index of Multiple Deprivation values, it was found that Year 8 children from moderately deprived backgrounds were more at risk of myopia compared with children located at both extremities of the deprivation spectrum. However, the main effect of SES weakened following multivariate analysis, with South Asian ethnicity and grammar schooling remaining associated with Year 8 myopia after adjustment.

Comparative risk of microalbuminuria and proteinuria in UK residents of south Asian and white European ethnic background with type 2 diabetes:a report from UKADS

Objective - This study investigated and compared the prevalence of microalbuminuria and overt proteinuria and their determinants in a cohort of UK resident patients of white European or south Asian ethnicity with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Research design and methods - A total of 1978 patients, comprising 1486 of south Asian and 492 of white European ethnicity, in 25 general practices in Coventry and Birmingham inner city areas in England were studied in a cross-sectional study. Demographic and risk factor data were collected and presence of microalbuminuria and overt proteinuria assessed. Main outcome measures - Prevalences of microalbuminuria and overt proteinuria. Results - Urinary albumin:creatinine measurements were available for 1852 (94%) patients. The south Asian group had a lower prevalence of microalbuminuria, 19% vs. 23% and a higher prevalence of overt proteinuria, 8% vs. 3%, X2?=?15.85, 2df, P?=?0.0004. In multiple logistic regression models, adjusted for confounding factors, significantly increased risk for the south Asian vs. white European patients for overt proteinuria was shown; OR (95% CI) 2.17 (1.05, 4.49), P?=?0.0365. For microalbuminuria, an interaction effect for ethnicity and duration of diabetes suggested that risk for south Asian patients was lower in early years following diagnosis; OR for SA vs. WH at durations 0 and 1 year were 0.56 (0.37, 0.86) and 0.59 (0.39, 0.89) respectively. After 20 years’ duration, OR?=?1.40 (0.63, 3.08). Limitations - Comparability of ethnicity defined groups; statistical methods controlled for differences between groups, but residual confounding may remain. Analyses are based on a single measure of albumin:creatinine ratio. Conclusions - There were significant differences between ethnicity groups in risk factor profiles and microalbuminuria and overt proteinuria outcomes. Whilst south Asian patients had no excess risk of microalbuminuria, the risk of overt proteinuria was elevated significantly, which might be explained by faster progression of renal dysfunction in patients of south Asian ethnicity.

Consumer trial, continuous use, and economic benefits of a retail service innovation:the case of the personal shopping assistant

Service innovations in retailing have the potential to benefit consumers as well as retailers. This research models key factors associated with the trial and continuous use of a specific self-service technology (SST), the personal shopping assistant (PSA), and estimates retailer benefits from implementing that innovation. Based on theoretical insights from prior SST studies, diffusion of innovation literature, and the technology acceptance model (TAM), this study develops specific hypotheses and tests them on a sample of 104 actual users of the PSA and 345 nonusers who shopped at the retail store offering the PSA device. Results indicate that factors affecting initial trial are different from those affecting continuous use. More specifically, consumers' trust toward the retailer, novelty seeking, and market mavenism are positively related to trial, while technology anxiety hinders the likelihood of trying the PSA. Perceived ease of use of the device positively impacts continuous use while consumers' need for interaction in shopping environments reduces the likelihood of continuous use. Importantly, there is evidence on retailer benefits from introducing the innovation since consumers using the PSA tend to spend more during each shopping trip. However, given the high costs of technology, the payback period for recovery of investments in innovation depends largely upon continued use of the innovation by consumers. Important implications are provided for retailers considering investments in new in-store service innovations. Incorporation of technology within physical stores affords opportunities for the retailer to reduce costs, while enhancing service provided to consumers. Therefore, service innovations in retailing have the potential to benefit consumers as well as retailers. This research models key factors associated with the trial and continuous use of a specific SST in the retail context, the PSA, and estimates retailer benefits from implementing that innovation. In so doing, the study contributes to the nascent area of research on SSTs in the retail sector. Based on theoretical insights from prior SST studies, diffusion of innovation literature, and the TAM, this study develops specific hypotheses regarding the (1) antecedent effects of technological anxiety, novelty seeking, market mavenism, and trust in the retailer on trial of the service innovation; (2) the effects of ease of use, perceived waiting time, and need for interaction on continuous use of the innovation; and (3) the effect of use of innovation on consumer spending at the store. The hypotheses were tested on a sample of 104 actual users of the PSA and 345 nonusers who shopped at the retail store offering the PSA device, one of the early adopters of PSA in Germany. Data were analyzed using logistic regression (antecedents of trial), multiple regression (antecedents of continuous use), and propensity score matching (assessing retailer benefits). Results indicate that factors affecting initial trial are different from those affecting continuous use. More specifically, consumers' trust toward the retailer, novelty seeking, and market mavenism are positively related to trial, while technology anxiety hinders the likelihood of trying the PSA. Perceived ease of use of the device positively impacts continuous use, while consumers' need for interaction in shopping environments reduces the likelihood of continuous use. Importantly, there is evidence on retailer benefits from introducing the innovation since consumers using the PSA tend to spend more during each shopping trip. However, given the high costs of technology, the payback period for recovery of investments in innovation depends largely upon continued use of the innovation by consumers. Important implications are provided for retailers considering investments in new in-store service innovations. The study contributes to the literature through its (1) simultaneous examination of antecedents of trial and continuous usage of a specific SST, (2) the demonstration of economic benefits of SST introduction for the retailer, and (3) contribution to the stream of research on service innovation, as against product innovation.