Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Structural determination of the K14 capsular polysaccharide from an ST25 Acinetobacter baumannii isolate, D46

The structure of the capsular polysaccharide (CPS) recovered from D46, an extensively antibiotic resistant ST25 Acinetobacter baumannii clinical isolate, was elucidated. The structure was resolved on the basis of NMR spectroscopy and chemical analyses, and was found to contain a branched neutral pentasaccharide with a backbone composed of GalpNAc and Galp residues, all d configured, and a d-Glcp side group. The KL14 gene cluster found in the D46 genome includes genes for four glycosyltransferases but no modules for synthesis of complex sugars, and this is consistent with the structure of K14. The K14 structure and KL14 sequence clarify the relationship between the structure and K locus sequence for A. nosocomialis isolate LUH5541. The identity of the first sugar of the K14 repeat unit (K unit), and the functions of the four encoded glycosyltransferases and Wzy polymerase were predicted.

Structure of the K12 capsule containing 5,7-di-N-acetylacinetaminic acid from Acinetobacter baumannii isolate D36

The repeat unit of the K12 capsular polysaccharide isolated from the Acinetobacter baumannii global clone 1 clinical isolate, D36, was elucidated by means of chemical and spectroscopical methods. The structure was shown to contain N-acetyl-D-galactosamine (D-GalpNAc), N-acetyl-D-fucosamine and N-acetyl-L-fucosamine linked together in the main chain, with the novel sugar, 5,7-diacetamido-3,5,7,9-tetradeoxy-L-glycero-L-altro-non-2-ulosonic acid (5,7-di-N-acetylacinetaminic acid or Aci5Ac7Ac), attached to D-GalpNAc as a side branch. This matched the sugar composition of the K12 capsule and the genetic content of the KL12 capsule gene cluster reported previously. D-FucpNAc was predicted to be the substrate for the initiating transferase, ItrB3, with the Wzy polymerase making a α-D-FucpNAc-(1 → 3)-D-GalpNAc linkage between the repeat units. The three glycosyltransferases encoded by KL12 are all retaining glycosyltransferases and were predicted to form specific linkages between the sugars in the K12 repeat unit.

Structure of the K6 capsular polysaccharide from Acinetobacter baumannii isolate RBH4

The structure of the capsular polysaccharide (CPS) from an Acinetobacter baumannii global clone 2 (GC2) clinical isolate RBH4 that carries the KL6 gene cluster was elucidated by means of chemical and spectroscopical methods. The repeating unit of K6 CPS is linear and contains N-acetyl-d-galactosamine (d-GalpNAc), two d-galactose (d-Galp) residues and 5,7-di-N-acetylpseudaminic acid (Pse5Ac7Ac). The synthesis of these sugars could be attributed to genes in the KL6 capsule biosynthesis gene cluster, and the formation of the linkages between the sugars were assigned to glycosyltransferases or the Wzy polymerase encoded in KL6.

Indigenous legal education at UNSW: A work in progress

Since the 1970s Australian law schools have provided alternative entry routes and, since the 1980s, pre-law programs and bridging programs. On-going support, once Indigenous students reach university law schools, has been an issue that has not been formally or appropriately addressed in most university law schools. In this way Indigenous students’ chances of entry are disguised as chances of success. Thus once Indigenous students start their law school studies, they are often expected to perform on a level playing field – their success or failure then depends on ‘gifts, merits or skills’ which are culturally appropriate for law school. This attitude fails to recognise the privilege which allows the development of such gifts, merits or skills...

A mega-analysis of genome-wide association studies for major depressive disorder

Prior genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of major depressive disorder (MDD) have met with limited success. We sought to increase statistical power to detect disease loci by conducting a GWAS mega-analysis for MDD. In the MDD discovery phase, we analyzed more than 1.2 million autosomal and X chromosome single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 18 759 independent and unrelated subjects of recent European ancestry (9240 MDD cases and 9519 controls). In the MDD replication phase, we evaluated 554 SNPs in independent samples (6783 MDD cases and 50 695 controls). We also conducted a cross-disorder meta-analysis using 819 autosomal SNPs with P<0.0001 for either MDD or the Psychiatric GWAS Consortium bipolar disorder (BIP) mega-analysis (9238 MDD cases/8039 controls and 6998 BIP cases/7775 controls). No SNPs achieved genome-wide significance in the MDD discovery phase, the MDD replication phase or in pre-planned secondary analyses (by sex, recurrent MDD, recurrent early-onset MDD, age of onset, pre-pubertal onset MDD or typical-like MDD from a latent class analyses of the MDD criteria). In the MDD-bipolar cross-disorder analysis, 15 SNPs exceeded genome-wide significance (P<5 x 10(-8)), and all were in a 248 kb interval of high LD on 3p21.1 (chr3:52 425 083-53 822 102, minimum P=5.9 x 10(-9) at rs2535629). Although this is the largest genome-wide analysis of MDD yet conducted, its high prevalence means that the sample is still underpowered to detect genetic effects typical for complex traits. Therefore, we were unable to identify robust and replicable findings. We discuss what this means for genetic research for MDD. The 3p21.1 MDD-BIP finding should be interpreted with caution as the most significant SNP did not replicate in MDD samples, and genotyping in independent samples will be needed to resolve its status.

The conservation status of the world’s reptiles

Effective and targeted conservation action requires detailed information about species, their distribution, systematics and ecology as well as the distribution of threat processes which affect them. Knowledge of reptilian diversity remains surprisingly disparate, and innovative means of gaining rapid insight into the status of reptiles are needed in order to highlight urgent conservation cases and inform environmental policy with appropriate biodiversity information in a timely manner. We present the first ever global analysis of extinction risk in reptiles, based on a random representative sample of 1500 species (16% of all currently known species). To our knowledge, our results provide the first analysis of the global conservation status and distribution patterns of reptiles and the threats affecting them, highlighting conservation priorities and knowledge gaps which need to be addressed urgently to ensure the continued survival of the world’s reptiles. Nearly one in five reptilian species are threatened with extinction, with another one in five species classed as Data Deficient. The proportion of threatened reptile species is highest in freshwater environments, tropical regions and on oceanic islands, while data deficiency was highest in tropical areas, such as Central Africa and Southeast Asia, and among fossorial reptiles. Our results emphasise the need for research attention to be focussed on tropical areas which are experiencing the most dramatic rates of habitat loss, on fossorial reptiles for which there is a chronic lack of data, and on certain taxa such as snakes for which extinction risk may currently be underestimated due to lack of population information. Conservation actions specifically need to mitigate the effects of human-induced habitat loss and harvesting, which are the predominant threats to reptiles.

The sublime, affective process + architectural production

A year before Kate Nesbitt’s Theorising a New Agenda For Architecture (1996), the author penned a chapter on the significance of the sublime and its contribution to post-modern architecture via the uncanny or disturbing through the theories of Vidler and Eisenman (Nesbit, 1995). Twenty years on, we see its ongoing presence within the contemporary works of artists Kapoor, Ellison and Viola. Eisenmann and Libeskind aside, explicit reference to the Sublime whether through architectural praxis or theory appears to have been trumped by ecological derivatives and associated transactions, as catalyst for new architecture and architectural thinking. For Edmund Burke (1757), the Sublime was seen as a leading, an overpowering of self to a state of intense self-presence, often leading to a state of otherness. To experience the sublime is to experience affect, physiologically overwhelming the mental faculties through intensities of astonishment, terror, obscurity, magnificence, and reverence. Key here is Burke’s articulation of the stages of the sublime encounter, particularly so, its implications for the process of production which architectural theorists appear to have overstepped in their valorisation of the sublime object. This paper seeks to resituate the sublime within the context of architectural production. Through concepts such as material thinking, bodies and making strange, the paper explores a shift in focus toward affective processes traced from Burke’s inquiry. Rather than proposing strategies solely for affect within the work itself, the focus lies upon the designing experience, where blockage and desirous forces are critical partners in the process of production, as revealed through recent studio programs entitled Strange Space.

Worldwide outdoor round robin study of organic photovoltaic devices and modules

Accurate characterization and reporting of organic photovoltaic (OPV) device performance remains one of the important challenges in the field. The large spread among the efficiencies of devices with the same structure reported by different groups is significantly caused by different procedures and equipment used during testing. The presented article addresses this issue by offering a new method of device testing using “suitcase sample” approach combined with outdoor testing that limits the diversity of the equipment, and a strict measurement protocol. A round robin outdoor characterization of roll-to-roll coated OPV cells and modules conducted among 46 laboratories worldwide is presented, where the samples and the testing equipment were integrated in a compact suitcase that served both as a sample transportation tool and as a holder and test equipment during testing. In addition, an internet based coordination was used via plasticphotovoltaics.org that allowed fast and efficient communication among participants and provided a controlled reporting format for the results that eased the analysis of the data. The reported deviations among the laboratories were limited to 5% when compared to the Si reference device integrated in the suitcase and were up to 8% when calculated using the local irradiance data. Therefore, this method offers a fast, cheap and efficient tool for sample sharing and testing that allows conducting outdoor measurements of OPV devices in a reproducible manner.

Rheology of dense sheared granular flows

Rapid granular flows are defined as flows in which the time scales for the particle interactions are small compared to the inverse of the strain rate, so that the particle interactions can be treated as instantaneous collisions. We first show, using Discrete Element simulations, that even very dense flows of sand or glass beads with volume fraction between 0.5 and 0.6 are rapid granular flows. Since collisions are instantaneous, a kinetic theory approach for the constitutive relations is most appropriate, and we present kinetic theory results for different microscopic models for particle interaction. The significant difference between granular flows and normal fluids is that energy is not conserved in a granular flow. The differences in the hydrodynamic modes caused by the non-conserved nature of energy are discussed. Going beyond the Boltzmann equation, the effect of correlations is studied using the ring kinetic approximation, and it is shown that the divergences in the viscometric coefficients, which are present for elastic fluids, are not present for granular flows because energy is not conserved. The hydrodynamic model is applied to the flow down an inclined plane. Since energy is not a conserved variable, the hydrodynamic fields in the bulk of a granular flow are obtained from the mass and momentum conservation equations alone. Energy becomes a relevant variable only in thin 'boundary layers' at the boundaries of the flow where there is a balance between the rates of conduction and dissipation. We show that such a hydrodynamic model can predict the salient features of a chute flow, including the flow initiation when the angle of inclination is increased above the 'friction angle', the striking lack of observable variation of the volume fraction with height, the observation of a steady flow only for certain restitution coefficients, and the density variations in the boundary layers.

Expected Performance of the ATLAS Experiment - Detector, Trigger and Physics

A detailed study is presented of the expected performance of the ATLAS detector. The reconstruction of tracks, leptons, photons, missing energy and jets is investigated, together with the performance of b-tagging and the trigger. The physics potential for a variety of interesting physics processes, within the Standard Model and beyond, is examined. The study comprises a series of notes based on simulations of the detector and physics processes, with particular emphasis given to the data expected from the first years of operation of the LHC at CERN.

Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas

The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon(1-3). With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment and other environmental stresses(4-9). As pressures mount, it is vital to know whether existing reserves can sustain their biodiversity. A critical constraint in addressing this question has been that data describing a broad array of biodiversity groups have been unavailable for a sufficiently large and representative sample of reserves. Here we present a uniquely comprehensive data set on changes over the past 20 to 30 years in 31 functional groups of species and 21 potential drivers of environmental change, for 60 protected areas stratified across the world's major tropical regions. Our analysis reveals great variation in reserve `health': about half of all reserves have been effective or performed passably, but the rest are experiencing an erosion of biodiversity that is often alarmingly widespread taxonomically and functionally. Habitat disruption, hunting and forest-product exploitation were the strongest predictors of declining reserve health. Crucially, environmental changes immediately outside reserves seemed nearly as important as those inside in determining their ecological fate, with changes inside reserves strongly mirroring those occurring around them. These findings suggest that tropical protected areas are often intimately linked ecologically to their surrounding habitats, and that a failure to stem broad-scale loss and degradation of such habitats could sharply increase the likelihood of serious biodiversity declines.

How Does the Spacer Length of Cationic Gemini Lipids Influence the Lipoplex Formation with Plasmid DNA? Physicochemical and Biochemical Characterizations and their Relevance in Gene Therapy

Lipoplexes formed by the pEGFP-C3 plasmid DNA (pDNA) and lipid mixtures containing cationic gemini surfactant of the 1,2-bis(hexadecyl dimethyl ammonium) Acmes family referred to as C16CnC16, where n = 2 3, 5, or 12, and the zwitterionic helper lipid, 1,2-dioleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphatidylethanolamine (DOPE) have been studied from a wide variety of physical, chemical, and biological standpoints. The study has been carried out using several experimental methods, such as zeta potential, gel electrophoresis, small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS), cryo-TEM, gene transfection, cell viability/cytotoxicity, and confocal fluorescence microscopy. As reported recently in a communication (J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2011, 133, 18014), the detailed physicochemical and biological studies confirm that, in the presence of the studied series lipid mixtures, plasmid DNA is compacted with a large number of its associated Na+ counterions. This in turn yields a much lower effective negative charge, q(pDNA)(-), a value that has been experimentally obtained for each mixed lipid mixture. Consequently, the cationic lipid (CL) complexes prepared with pDNA and CL/DOPE mixtures to be used in gene transfection require significantly less amount of CL than the one estimated assuming a value of q(DNA)(-) = -2. This drives to a considerably lower cytotoxicity of the gene vector. Depending on the CL molar composition, alpha, of the lipid mixture, and the effective charge ratio of the lipoplex, rho(eff), the reported SAXS data indicate the presence of two or three structures in the same lipoplex, one in the DOPE-rich region, other in the CL-rich region, and another one present at any CL composition. Cryo-TEM and SAXS studies with C16CnC16/DOPE-pDNA lipoplexes indicate that pDNA is localized between the mixed lipid bilayers of lamellar structures within a monolayer of similar to 2 nm. This is consistent with a highly compacted supercoiled pDNA conformation compared with that of linear DNA. Transfection studies were carried out with HEK293T, HeLa, CHO, U343, and H460 cells. The alpha and rho(eff) values for each lipid mixture were optimized on HEK293T cells for transfection, and using these values, the remaining cells were also transfected in absence (-FBS-FBS) and presence (-FBS+FBS) of serum. The transfection efficiency was higher with the CLs of shorter gemini spacers (n = 2 or 3). Each formulation expressed GFP on pDNA transfection and confocal fluorescence microscopy corroborated the results. C16C2C16/DOPE mixtures were the most efficient toward transfection among all the lipid mixtures and, in presence of serum, even better than the Lipofectamine2000, a commercial transfecting agent Each lipid combination was safe and did not show any significant levels of toxicity. Probably, the presence of two coexisting lamellar structures in lipoplexes synergizes the transfection efficiency of the lipid mixtures which are plentiful in the lipoplexes formed by CLs with short spacer (n = 2, 3) than those with the long spacer (n = 5, 12).