Evaluating sampling strategies and logistic regression methods for modelling complex land cover changes

The role of land cover change as a significant component of global change has become increasingly recognized in recent decades. Large databases measuring land cover change, and the data which can potentially be used to explain the observed changes, are also becoming more commonly available. When developing statistical models to investigate observed changes, it is important to be aware that the chosen sampling strategy and modelling techniques can influence results. We present a comparison of three sampling strategies and two forms of grouped logistic regression models (multinomial and ordinal) in the investigation of patterns of successional change after agricultural land abandonment in Switzerland. Results indicated that both ordinal and nominal transitional change occurs in the landscape and that the use of different sampling regimes and modelling techniques as investigative tools yield different results. Synthesis and applications. Our multimodel inference identified successfully a set of consistently selected indicators of land cover change, which can be used to predict further change, including annual average temperature, the number of already overgrown neighbouring areas of land and distance to historically destructive avalanche sites. This allows for more reliable decision making and planning with respect to landscape management. Although both model approaches gave similar results, ordinal regression yielded more parsimonious models that identified the important predictors of land cover change more efficiently. Thus, this approach is favourable where land cover change pattern can be interpreted as an ordinal process. Otherwise, multinomial logistic regression is a viable alternative.

An objective anisotropic elastic plastic model and Algorithm applicable to bone mechanics

The implicit projection algorithm of isotropic plasticity is extended to an objective anisotropic elastic perfectly plastic model. The recursion formula developed to project the trial stress on the yield surface, is applicable to any non linear elastic law and any plastic yield function.A curvilinear transverse isotropic model based on a quadratic elastic potential and on Hill's quadratic yield criterion is then developed and implemented in a computer program for bone mechanics perspectives. The paper concludes with a numerical study of a schematic bone-prosthesis system to illustrate the potential of the model.

Complex landslide behaviour and structural controlled by the structures: A 3D conceptual model example of Åknes rockslide, Norway

Åknes is an active complex large rockslide of approximately 30?40 Mm3 located within the Proterozoic gneisses of western Norway. The observed surface displacements indicate that this rockslide is divided into several blocks moving in different directions at velocities of between 3 and 10 cm year?1. Because of regional safety issues and economic interests this rockslide has been extensively monitored since 2004. The understanding of the deformation mechanism is crucial for the implementation of a viable monitoring system. Detailed field investigations and the analysis of a digital elevation model (DEM) indicate that the movements and the block geometry are controlled by the main schistosity (S1) in gneisses, folds, joints and regional faults. Such complex slope deformations use pre-existing structures, but also result in new failure surfaces and deformation zones, like preferential rupture in fold-hinge zones. Our interpretation provides a consistent conceptual three-dimensional (3D) model for the movements measured by various methods that is crucial for numerical stability modelling. In addition, this reinterpretation of the morphology confirms that in the past several rockslides occurred from the Åknes slope. They may be related to scars propagating along the vertical foliation in folds hinges. Finally, a model of the evolution of the Åknes slope is presented.

A general model to predict individual exposure to solar UV by using ambient irradiance data

Excessive exposure to solar ultraviolet (UV) is the main cause of skin cancer. Specific prevention should be further developed to target overexposed or highly vulnerable populations. A better characterisation of anatomical UV exposure patterns is however needed for specific prevention. To develop a regression model for predicting the UV exposure ratio (ER, ratio between the anatomical dose and the corresponding ground level dose) for each body site without requiring individual measurements. A 3D numeric model (SimUVEx) was used to compute ER for various body sites and postures. A multiple fractional polynomial regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of ER. The regression model used simulation data and its performance was tested on an independent data set. Two input variables were sufficient to explain ER: the cosine of the maximal daily solar zenith angle and the fraction of the sky visible from the body site. The regression model was in good agreement with the simulated data ER (R(2)=0.988). Relative errors up to +20% and -10% were found in daily doses predictions, whereas an average relative error of only 2.4% (-0.03% to 5.4%) was found in yearly dose predictions. The regression model predicts accurately ER and UV doses on the basis of readily available data such as global UV erythemal irradiance measured at ground surface stations or inferred from satellite information. It renders the development of exposure data on a wide temporal and geographical scale possible and opens broad perspectives for epidemiological studies and skin cancer prevention.

Involvement of circulating CEA in liver metastases from colorectal cancers re-examined in a new experimental model.

Both experimental and clinical data show evidence of a correlation between elevated blood levels of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and the development of liver metastases from colorectal carcinomas. However, a cause-effect relationship between these two observations has not been demonstrated. For this reason, we developed a new experimental model to evaluate the possible role of circulating CEA in the facilitation of liver metastases. A CEA-negative subclone from the human colon carcinoma cell line CO115 was transfected either with CEA-cDNA truncated at its 3' end by the deletion of 78 base pairs leading to the synthesis of a secreted form of CEA or with a full-length CEA-cDNA leading to the synthesis of the entire CEA molecule linked to the cell surface by a GPI anchor. Transfectants were selected either for their high CEA secretion (clone CO115-2C2 secreting up to 13 microg CEA per 10(6) cells within 72 h) or for their high CEA membrane expression (clone CO115-5F12 expressing up to 1 x 10(6) CEA molecules per cell). When grafted subcutaneously, CO115-2C2 cells gave rise to circulating CEA levels that were directly related to the tumour volume (from 100 to 1000 ng ml(-1) for tumours ranging from 100 to 1000 mm3), whereas no circulating CEA was detectable in CO115 and CO115-5F12 tumour-bearing mice. Three series of nude mice bearing a subcutaneous xenograft from either clone CO115-2C2 or the CO115-5F12 transfectant, or an untransfected CO115 xenograft, were further challenged for induction of experimental liver metastases by intrasplenic injection of three different CEA-expressing human colorectal carcinoma cell lines (LoVo, LS174T or CO112). The number and size of the liver metastases were shown to be independent of the circulating CEA levels induced by the subcutaneous CEA secreting clone (CO115-2C2), but they were directly related to the metastatic properties of the intrasplenically injected tumour cells.

Human urothelial cells grown on collagen adsorbed to surface-modified polymers.

OBJECTIVES: Tissue engineering methods can be applied to regenerate diseased, or congenitally missing, urinary tract tissues. Urinary tract tissue cell cultures must be established in vitro and adequate matrices, acting as cell carriers, must be developed. Although degradable and nondegradable polymer matrices offer adequate mechanical stability, they are not optimal for cell adherence and growth. To overcome this problem, extracellular matrix proteins, permitting cell adhesion and regulation of cell proliferation and differentiation, can be adsorbed to the surface-modified polymer. METHODS: In this study, nondegradable polymer films, poly(ethylene terephthalate), were used as an experimental model. Films were modified by graft polymerization of acrylic acid to subsequently allow collagen type I and III immobilization. The following adhesion, proliferation of human urothelial cells, and induction of their stratification were analyzed. RESULTS: Collagen adsorption on 0.2 microg/cm2 poly(acrylic acid)-grafted polymer films rendered the matrix apt for human urothelial cell adhesion and proliferation. Furthermore, stratification of urothelial cells was demonstrated on these surface-modified matrices. CONCLUSIONS: These results have shown that surface-modified polymer matrices can be used to act as cell carriers for cultured human urothelial cells. Such a cell-matrix construct could be applied in reparative surgery of the urinary tract.

Detailed DEM analysis of a rockslide scar to characterize the basal sliding surface of active rockslides

The basal sliding surfaces in large rockslides are often composed of several surfaces and possess a complex geometry. The exact morphology and location in three dimensions of the sliding surface remains generally unknown, in spite of extensive field and subsurface investigations, such as those at the Åknes rockslide (western Norway). This knowledge is crucial for volume estimations, failure mechanisms, and numerical slope stability modeling. This paper focuses on the geomorphologic characterization of the basal sliding surface of a postglacial rockslide scar in the vicinity of Åknes. This scar displays a stepped basal sliding surface formed by dip slopes of the gneiss foliation linked together by steeply dipping fractures. A detailed characterization of the rockslide scar by means of high-resolution digital elevation models permits statistical parameters of dip angle, spacing, persistence, and roughness of foliation surfaces and step fractures to be obtained. The characteristics are used for stochastic simulations of stepped basal sliding surfaces at the Åknes rockslide. These findings are compared with previous models based on geophysical investigations. This study discusses the investigation of rockslide scars and rock outcrops for a better understanding of potential rockslides. This work identifies possible basal sliding surface locations, which is a valuable input for volume estimates, design and location of monitoring instrumentation, and numerical slope stability modeling.

Treeline and climate change : analyzing and modeling patterns and shifts in the Swiss Alps

Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.

Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.

Risk-based modelling of diffuse land use impacts from rural landscapes upon salmonid fry abundance

Research has demonstrated that landscape or watershed scale processes can influence instream aquatic ecosystems, in terms of the impacts of delivery of fine sediment, solutes and organic matter. Testing such impacts upon populations of organisms (i.e. at the catchment scale) has not proven straightforward and differences have emerged in the conclusions reached. This is: (1) partly because different studies have focused upon different scales of enquiry; but also (2) because the emphasis upon upstream land cover has rarely addressed the extent to which such land covers are hydrologically connected, and hence able to deliver diffuse pollution, to the drainage network However, there is a third issue. In order to develop suitable hydrological models, we need to conceptualise the process cascade. To do this, we need to know what matters to the organism being impacted by the hydrological system, such that we can identify which processes need to be modelled. Acquiring such knowledge is not easy, especially for organisms like fish that might occupy very different locations in the river over relatively short periods of time. However, and inevitably, hydrological modellers have started by building up piecemeal the aspects of the problem that we think matter to fish. Herein, we report two developments: (a) for the case of sediment associated diffuse pollution from agriculture, a risk-based modelling framework, SCIMAP, has been developed, which is distinct because it has an explicit focus upon hydrological connectivity; and (b) we use spatially distributed ecological data to infer the processes and the associated process parameters that matter to salmonid fry. We apply the model to spatially distributed salmon and fry data from the River Eden, Cumbria, England. The analysis shows, quite surprisingly, that arable land covers are relatively unimportant as drivers of fry abundance. What matters most is intensive pasture, a land cover that could be associated with a number of stressors on salmonid fry (e.g. pesticides, fine sediment) and which allows us to identify a series of risky field locations, where this land cover is readily connected to the river system by overland flow. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development and experimental validation of a finite element model of total ankle replacement.

Total ankle replacement remains a less satisfactory solution compared to other joint replacements. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a finite element model of total ankle replacement, for future testing of hypotheses related to clinical issues. To validate the finite element model, an experimental setup was specifically developed and applied on 8 cadaveric tibias. A non-cemented press fit tibial component of a mobile bearing prosthesis was inserted into the tibias. Two extreme anterior and posterior positions of the mobile bearing insert were considered, as well as a centered one. An axial force of 2kN was applied for each insert position. Strains were measured on the bone surface using digital image correlation. Tibias were CT scanned before implantation, after implantation, and after mechanical tests and removal of the prosthesis. The finite element model replicated the experimental setup. The first CT was used to build the geometry and evaluate the mechanical properties of the tibias. The second CT was used to set the implant position. The third CT was used to assess the bone-implant interface conditions. The coefficient of determination (R-squared) between the measured and predicted strains was 0.91. Predicted bone strains were maximal around the implant keel, especially at the anterior and posterior ends. The finite element model presented here is validated for future tests using more physiological loading conditions.

Retrovirus-host interactions. The mouse mammary tumor virus model.

Mouse mammary tumor virus (MMTV) is a retrovirus which can induce mammary carcinomas in mice late in life by activation of proto-oncogenes after integration in their vicinity. Surprisingly, it requires a functional immune system to achieve efficient infection of the mammary gland. This requirement became clear when it was discovered that it has developed strategies to exploit the immune response. Instead of escaping immune detection, it induces a vigorous polyclonal T-B interaction which is required to induce a chronic infection. This is achieved by activating and then infecting antigen presenting cells (B cells), expressing a superantigen on their cell surface and triggering unlimited help by the large number of superantigen-specific T cells. The end result of this strong T-B interaction is the proliferation and differentiation of the infected B cells leading to their long term survival.

The effect of COX-2 inhibitors on the formation of heterotopic bone in a rat model : O1323

Aims: 1) to create a new and reproducible animal model to produce heterotopic ossification (HO) 2) to be able to exactly quantify the amount of HO using a microCT scan and 3) to prove the hypothesis that COX-2 inhibitors are efficacious in the prevention of HO. Methods: We developed a IACUC-approved Lewis rat model, in which the ventral side of the right femur was scraped to mechanically disrupt the periosteum. By clamping the vastus intermedius ischemic injury to the muscle was produced to enhance HO. Finally homologous bone marrow from a donor rat was placed on the anterior surface of the femur. Half of the study group (8 rats) received chow mixed with a COX-2 inhibitor, while the other half received normal chow. After 6 weeks the animals were sacrificed, the femurs removed and imaged by microCT. Grading of HO was based on the thickness of ectopic bone as evaluated in a blinded fashion by 3 independent observers. Results: All animals developed bilateral HO. Rats treated with COX-2 inhibitors developed significantly less ectopic bone than the control group rats. Conclusions: The results suggest that we have created a very reliable, reproducible model to form ectopic bone in rats. Using the microCT we can precisely quantify the amount of HO. We have been able to show that COX-2 inhibitors significantly decrease the amount of HO formation and are thus a good alternative to non-specific NSAIDs with their potential serious side effects on the gastrointestinal tract and on hemo-stastis.

Estimation of the lateral correlation structure of subsurface water content from surface-based ground-penetrating radar reflection images

Over the past decade, significant interest has been expressed in relating the spatial statistics of surface-based reflection ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data to those of the imaged subsurface volume. A primary motivation for this work is that changes in the radar wave velocity, which largely control the character of the observed data, are expected to be related to corresponding changes in subsurface water content. Although previous work has indeed indicated that the spatial statistics of GPR images are linked to those of the water content distribution of the probed region, a viable method for quantitatively analyzing the GPR data and solving the corresponding inverse problem has not yet been presented. Here we address this issue by first deriving a relationship between the 2-D autocorrelation of a water content distribution and that of the corresponding GPR reflection image. We then show how a Bayesian inversion strategy based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling can be used to estimate the posterior distribution of subsurface correlation model parameters that are consistent with the GPR data. Our results indicate that if the underlying assumptions are valid and we possess adequate prior knowledge regarding the water content distribution, in particular its vertical variability, this methodology allows not only for the reliable recovery of lateral correlation model parameters but also for estimates of parameter uncertainties. In the case where prior knowledge regarding the vertical variability of water content is not available, the results show that the methodology still reliably recovers the aspect ratio of the heterogeneity.

Delimitation of kala-azar risk areas in the district of Vaishali in Bihar (India) using a geo-environmental approach

Remote sensing and geographical information technologies were used to discriminate areas of high and low risk for contracting kala-azar or visceral leishmaniasis. Satellite data were digitally processed to generate maps of land cover and spectral indices, such as the normalised difference vegetation index and wetness index. To map estimated vector abundance and indoor climate data, local polynomial interpolations were used based on the weightage values. Attribute layers were prepared based on illiteracy and the unemployed proportion of the population and associated with village boundaries. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to estimate the relationship between environmental variables and disease incidence across the study area. The cell values for each input raster in the analysis were assigned values from the evaluation scale. Simple weighting/ratings based on the degree of favourable conditions for kala-azar transmission were used for all the variables, leading to geo-environmental risk model. Variables such as, land use/land cover, vegetation conditions, surface dampness, the indoor climate, illiteracy rates and the size of the unemployed population were considered for inclusion in the geo-environmental kala-azar risk model. The risk model was stratified into areas of "risk"and "non-risk"for the disease, based on calculation of risk indices. The described approach constitutes a promising tool for microlevel kala-azar surveillance and aids in directing control efforts.