Credit risk stress testing: The Portuguese environment, macroeconomic scenarios and the estimation of losses for corporate sectors

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Benchmarking in primary health care: An application of the stochasticd frontier analysis and the grades of membership approach to Portuguese family health units

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The tight grip of a debt based global economy: A study on banking regulation and the implementation of the Basel II Accord in Portugal

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The impact of high involvement human resources practices on resistance to change: The mediator effect of commitment to change and the influence of ethical leadership

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Spiteful Strategies. The ontogeny and the practice of spite in human interaction: an experimental game theory approach and empirical applications

As estratégias de malevolência implicam que um indivíduo pague um custo para infligir um custo superior a um oponente. Como um dos comportamentos fundamentais da sociobiologia, a malevolência tem recebido menos atenção que os seus pares o egoísmo e a cooperação. Contudo, foi estabelecido que a malevolência é uma estratégia viável em populações pequenas quando usada contra indivíduos negativamente geneticamente relacionados pois este comportamento pode i) ser eliminado naturalmente, ou ii) manter-se em equilíbrio com estratégias cooperativas devido à disponibilidade da parte de indivíduos malevolentes de pagar um custo para punir. Esta tese propõe compreender se a propensão para a malevolência nos humanos é inerente ou se esta se desenvolve com a idade. Para esse efeito, considerei duas experiências de teoria de jogos em crianças em ambiente escolar com idades entre os 6 e os 22 anos. A primeira, um jogo 2x2 foi testada com duas variantes: 1) um prémio foi atribuído a ambos os jogadores, proporcionalmente aos pontos acumulados; 2), um prémio foi atribuído ao jogador com mais pontos. O jogo foi desenhado com o intuito de causar o seguinte dilema a cada jogador: i) maximizar o seu ganho e arriscar ter menos pontos que o adversário; ou ii) decidir não maximizar o seu ganho, garantindo que este não era inferior ao do seu adversário. A segunda experiência consistia num jogo do ditador com duas opções: uma escolha egoísta/altruísta (A), onde o ditador recebia mais ganho, mas o seu recipiente recebia mais que ele e uma escolha malevolente (B) que oferecia menos ganhos ao ditador que a A mas mais ganhos que o recipiente. O dilema era que se as crianças se comportassem de maneira egoísta, obtinham mais ganho para si, ao mesmo tempo que aumentavam o ganho do seu colega. Se fossem malevolentes, então prefeririam ter mais ganho que o seu colega ao mesmo tempo que tinham menos para eles próprios. As experiências foram efetuadas em escolas de duas áreas distintas de Portugal (continente e Açores) para perceber se as preferências malevolentes aumentavam ou diminuíam com a idade. Os resultados na primeira experiência sugerem que (1) os alunos compreenderam a primeira variante como um jogo de coordenação e comportaram-se como maximizadores, copiando as jogadas anteriores dos seus adversários; (2) que os alunos repetentes se comportaram preferencialmente como malevolentes, mais frequentemente que como maximizadores, com especial ênfase para os alunos de 14 anos; (3) maioria dos alunos comportou-se reciprocamente desde os 12 até aos 16 anos de idade, após os quais começaram a desenvolver uma maior tolerância às escolhas dos seus parceiros. Os resultados da segunda experiência sugerem que (1) as estratégias egoístas eram prevalentes até aos 6 anos de idade, (2) as tendências altruístas emergiram até aos 8 anos de idade e (3) as estratégias de malevolência começaram a emergir a partir dos 8 anos de idade. Estes resultados complementam a literatura relativamente escassa sobre malevolência e sugerem que este comportamento está intimamente ligado a preferências de consideração sobre os outros, o paroquialismo e os estágios de desenvolvimento das crianças.************************************************************Spite is defined as an act that causes loss of payoff to an opponent at a cost to the actor. As one of the four fundamental behaviours in sociobiology, it has received far less attention than its counterparts selfishness and cooperation. It has however been established as a viable strategy in small populations when used against negatively related individuals. Because of this, spite can either i) disappear or ii) remain at equilibrium with cooperative strategies due to the willingness of spiteful individuals to pay a cost in order to punish. This thesis sets out to understand whether propensity for spiteful behaviour is inherent or if it develops with age. For that effect, two game-theoretical experiments were performed with schoolboys and schoolgirls aged 6 to 22. The first, a 2 x 2 game, was tested in two variants: 1) a prize was awarded to both players, proportional to accumulated points; 2), a prize was given to the player with most points. Each player faced the following dilemma: i) to maximise pay-off risking a lower pay-off than the opponent; or ii) not to maximise pay-off in order to cut down the opponent below their own. The second game was a dictator experiment with two choices, (A) a selfish/altruistic choice affording more payoff to the donor than B, but more to the recipient than to the donor, and (B) a spiteful choice that afforded less payoff to the donor than A, but even lower payoff to the recipient. The dilemma here was that if subjects behaved selfishly, they obtained more payoff for themselves, while at the same time increasing their opponent payoff. If they were spiteful, they would rather have more payoff than their colleague, at the cost of less for themselves. Experiments were run in schools in two different areas in Portugal (mainland and Azores) to understand whether spiteful preferences varied with age. Results in the first experiment suggested that (1) students understood the first variant as a coordination game and engaged in maximising behaviour by copying their opponent’s plays; (2) repeating students preferentially engaged in spiteful behaviour more often than maximising behaviour, with special emphasis on 14 year-olds; (3) most students engaged in reciprocal behaviour from ages 12 to 16, as they began developing higher tolerance for their opponent choices. Results for the second experiment suggested that (1) selfish strategies were prevalent until the age of 6, (2) altruistic tendencies emerged since then, and (3) spiteful strategies began being chosen more often by 8 year-olds. These results add to the relatively scarce body of literature on spite and suggest that this type of behaviour is closely tied with other-regarding preferences, parochialism and the children’s stages of development.

Analysis of sandflies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Barra do Garças, State of Mato Grosso, Brazil, and the influence of environmental variables on the vector density of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva, 1912)

INTRODUCTION: Leishmaniasis is an infectious and parasitic zoonotic, non-contagious, vector-borne disease caused by protozoa of the genus Leishmania. In Brazil, the major vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum chagasi (Cunha & Chagas, 1934) is Lutzomyia longipalpis. Barra do Garças, State of Mato Grosso, was designated as a priority area by the Brazilian Ministry of Health for american visceral leishmaniasis, and it is important to identify the vector species present in this municipality. Our objective was to raise sandflies and study the influence of environmental variables on the vector density of Lutzomyia longipalpis. METHODS: We performed entomological monitoring in 3 districts using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light traps and recorded human cases of american visceral leishmaniasis in the city. We calculated the relative frequency and richness of sandflies and applied a transfer function model to the vector density correlate with relative humidity. RESULTS: The sandfly population was composed of 2 genera and 27 species, totaling 8,097 individuals. Monitoring identified Lutzomyia longipalpis (44%), followed by Lutzomyia lenti (18.9%), Lutzomyia whitmani (13.9%), Lutzomyia carmelinoi (9.1%), Lutzomyia evandroi (5.1%), Lutzomyia termitophila (3.3%), Lutzomyia sordellii (1.9%), and 20 other species (<4%). The male:female ratio was 3.5:1. We observed high species diversity (Dα = 6.65). Lutzomyia longipalpis showed occurrence peaks during the rainy season; there was a temporal correlation with humidity, but not with frequency or temperature. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of Lutzomyia longipalpis in the urban area of Barra do Garças underscores the changing disease profile, which was previously restricted to the wild environment.

Banco BPI and the reimbursement of contingent convertible subordinated bonds (CoCos)

This case study focuses on the BPI’s recapitalization plan, its causes and the reasons for the early reimbursement of CoCos in June 2014. The need for a capital intervention and the subsequent subscription agreement with the Portuguese Government of €1 500 million Core Tier 1 instruments were the result of a temporary capital buffer for sovereign debt exposures imposed by the European Banking Authority. The capital increase, the positive earnings in 2012 and 2013, the improvements in the sovereign debt crisis, the implementation of Basel III, in addition to the public exchange offer and the conversion of deferred tax assets into tax credits are the main factors for concluding the entire recapitalization operation three years before the deadline.

Susceptibility of Argentinean Biomphalaria tenagophila and Biomphalaria straminea to infection by Schistosoma mansoni and the possibility of geographic expansion of mansoni schistosomiasis

Introduction Human migration and the presence of natural vectors (mollusks) of Schistosoma mansoni are the primary causes of the expansion of mansoni schistosomiasis into southern areas of South America. Water conditions are favorable for the expansion of this disease because of the extensive hydrographic network, which includes the basins of the Paraná and Uruguay rivers and favors mollusk reproduction. These rivers also aid agriculture and tourism in the area. Despite these favorable conditions, natural infection by S. mansoni has not yet been reported in Argentina, Uruguay, or Paraguay. Methods Two species of planorbid from Argentina, Biomphalaria straminea and B. tenagophila, were exposed to the miracidia of five Brazilian strains of S. mansoni. Results Biomphalaria tenagophila (Atalaya, Buenos Aires province) was infected with the SJS strain (infection rate 3.3%), confirming the experimental susceptibility of this Argentinian species. Biomphalaria straminea (Rio Santa Lucía, Corrientes province) was susceptible to two Brazilian strains: SJS (infection rate 6.7%) and Sergipe (infection rate 6.7%). Conclusions These results demonstrate that species from Argentina have the potential to be natural hosts of S. mansoni and that the appearance of foci of mansoni schistosomiasis in Argentina is possible.

Essays in health economics: Volume-Outcome Effect, upcoding behaviour and the evaluation of a short-term intervention program

Evidence in the literature suggests a negative relationship between volume of medical procedures and mortality rates in the health care sector. In general, high-volume hospitals appear to achieve lower mortality rates, although considerable variation exists. However, most studies focus on US hospitals, which face different incentives than hospitals in a National Health Service (NHS). In order to add to the literature, this study aims to understand what happens in a NHS. Results reveal a statistically significant correlation between volume of procedures and better outcomes for the following medical procedures: cerebral infarction, respiratory infections, circulatory disorders with AMI, bowel procedures, cirrhosis, and hip and femur procedures. The effect is explained with the practice-makes-perfect hypothesis through static effects of scale with little evidence of learning-by-doing. The centralization of those medical procedures is recommended given that this policy would save a considerable number of lives (reduction of 12% in deaths for cerebral infarction).

Effects of piperonyl butoxide on the toxicity of the organophosphate temephos and the role of esterases in the insecticide resistance of Aedes aegypti

IntroductionThe effects of piperonyl butoxide (PBO) on the toxicity of the organophosphate temephos (TE) and the role of esterases in the resistance of Aedes aegypti to this insecticide were evaluated.MethodsA. aegypti L4 larvae susceptible and resistant to TE were pre-treated with PBO solutions in acetone at concentrations of 0.125, 0.25, 0.5, 1, and 2% for 24h and subsequently exposed to a diagnostic concentration of 0.02mg/L aqueous TE solution. The esterase activity of the larvae extracts pre-treated with varying PBO concentrations and exposed to TE for three time periods was determined.ResultsAt concentrations of 0.25, 0.5, 1, and 2%, PBO showed a significant synergistic effect with TE toxicity. High levels of esterase activity were associated with the survival of A. aegypti L4 larvae exposed to TE only.ConclusionsThe results of the biochemical assays suggest that PBO has a significant inhibitory effect on the total esterase activity in A. aegypti larvae.

Ecological competition and the incidence of Acinetobacter baumannii bloodstream infections in a teaching hospital in Southeastern Brazil

IntroductionRecently, pathogen ecology has been recognized as an important epidemiological determinant of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs). Acinetobacter baumannii is one of the most important agents known to cause HAIs. It is widespread in healthcare settings and exhibits seasonal variations in incidence. Little is known about the impact of competition with other hospital pathogens on the incidence of A. baumannii infection.MethodsWe conducted an ecological study, enrolling patients who presented with healthcare-associated bloodstream infections (HA-BSIs) from 2005 to 2010 at a 450-bed teaching hospital in Brazil. HA-BSIs were said to be present when bacteria or fungi were recovered from blood cultures collected at least three days after admission. Monthly incidence rates were calculated for all HA-BSIs (overall or caused by specific pathogens or groups of pathogens). Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to identify the impacts of the incidence of several pathogens on the incidence of A. baumannii.ResultsThe overall incidence rate of HA-BSI caused by A. baumannii was 2.5 per 10,000 patient-days. In the multivariate analysis, the incidence of HA-BSI caused by A. baumanniiwas negatively associated with the incidence rates of HA-BSI due to Staphylococcus aureus (rate ratio [RR]=0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.80-0.97), Enterobacter spp. (RR=0.84; 95%CI=0.74-0.94) and a pool of less common gram-negative pathogens.ConclusionsOur results suggest that competition between pathogens influences the etiology of HA-BSIs. It would be beneficial to take these findings into account in infection control policies.

Cryptococcosis in Atlántico, Colombia: an approximation of the prevalence of this mycosis and the distribution of the etiological agent in the environment

ABSTRACTINTRODUCTION:Cryptococcosis is an invasive disease acquired by inhalation of infectious propagules from the environment. Currently, compulsory notification of the spread of this disease is not required in Colombia. However, reporting of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immune deficiency syndrome cases to the National Surveillance System has suggested that there is a growing population at risk of contracting cryptococcosis. Few studies have described the occurrence of cryptococcosis in Colombia. Therefore, in this study, we examined the pathology of this disease in Atlántico, Colombia and determined the distributions of Cryptococcus neoformans and Cryptococcus gattii in the environment.METHODS:Clinical samples/isolates were gathered from cases of cryptococcosis previously diagnosed at health institutions in Atlántico, and surveys were completed by clinicians. The environmental study considered 32 sampling points and three tree species, i.e., Quickstick ( Gliricidia sepium ), Almond ( Terminalia catappa ), and Pink trumpet ( Tabebuia rosea ). Environmental and clinical samples/isolates were analyzed for phenotypic and genotypic confirmation.RESULTS:From 1997-2014, 41 cases of cryptococcosis were reported. The mean patient age was 40.5 years (range: 18-63 years); 76% were men, and 78% were HIV positive. Isolation was possible in 38 cases ( C. neoformans , molecular type VNI in 37 cases and C. gattii , molecular type VGI in one case). In 2012-2014, 2,068 environmental samples were analyzed with a positivity of 0.4% ( C. neoformans , molecular type VNI) in Almond and Pink trumpet trees.CONCLUSIONS:Cryptococcus neoformans , molecular type VNI had a higher prevalence than C. gattii and was associated with human exposure and the pathogenesis of cryptococcosis in this geographical region.

Zika virus in Brazil and the danger of infestation by Aedes (Stegomyia) mosquitoes

Abstract Zika virus, already widely distributed in Africa and Asia, was recently reported in two Northeastern Brazilian: State of Bahia and State of Rio Grande do Norte, and one Southeastern: State of São Paulo. This finding adds a potentially noxious virus to a list of several other viruses that are widely transmitted by Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus in Brazil. The pathology and epidemiology, including the distribution and vectors associated with Zika virus, are reviewed. This review is focused on viruses transmitted by Aedes (Stegomyia) mosquitoes, including dengue, Chikungunya, Zika, Mayaro, and yellow fever virus, to emphasize the risks of occurrence for these arboviruses in Brazil and neighboring countries. Other species of Aedes (Stegomyia) are discussed, emphasizing their involvement in arbovirus transmission and the possibility of adaptation to environments modified by human activities and introduction in Brazil.