Seguridad del monitoreo hemodinámico invasivo versus mínimamente invasivo en pacientes con choque cardiogénico en cuidado intensivo adultos. Revisión sistemática

Introducción: El monitoreo hemodinámico es una herramienta para diagnosticar el choque cardiogénico y monitorear la respuesta al tratamiento; puede ser invasivo, mínimamente invasivo o no invasivo. Se realiza rutinariamente con catéter de arteria pulmonar (CAP) o catéter de Swan Ganz; nuevas técnicas de monitoreo hemodinámico mínimamente invasivo tienen menor tasa de complicaciones. Actualmente se desconoce cuál técnica de monitoreo cuenta con mayor seguridad en el paciente con choque cardiogénico. Objetivo: Evaluar la seguridad del monitoreo hemodinámico invasivo comparado con el mínimamente invasivo en pacientes con choque cardiogénico en cuidado intensivo adultos. Diseño: Revisión sistemática de la literatura. Búsqueda en Pubmed, EMBASE, OVID - Cochrane Library, Lilacs, Scielo, registros de ensayos clínicos, actas de conferencias, repositorios, búsqueda de literatura gris en Google Scholar, Teseo y Open Grey hasta agosto de 2016, publicados en inglés y español. Resultados: Se identificó un único estudio con 331 pacientes críticamente enfermos que comparó el monitoreo hemodinámico con CAP versus PiCCO que concluyó que después de la corrección de los factores de confusión, la elección del tipo de monitoreo no influyó en los resultados clínicos más importantes en términos de complicaciones y mortalidad. Dado que se incluyeron otros diagnósticos, no es posible extrapolar los resultados sólo a choque cardiogénico. Conclusión: En la literatura disponible no hay evidencia de que el monitoreo hemodinámico invasivo comparado con el mínimamente invasivo, en pacientes adultos críticamente enfermos con choque cardiogénico, tenga diferencias en cuanto a complicaciones y mortalidad.

The 1998-2001 submarine lava balloon eruption at the Serreta Ridge (Azores archipelago): constraints from volcanic facies architecture, isotope geochemistry and magnetic data

The most recent submarine eruption observed offshore the Azores archipelago occurred between 1998-2001 along the submarine Serreta ridge (SSR), ~4-5 nautical miles WNW of Terceira Island. This submarine eruption delivered abundant basaltic lava balloons floating at the sea surface and significantly changed the bathymetry around the eruption area. Our work combines bathymetry, volcanic facies cartography, petrography, rock magnetism and geochemistry in order to (1) track the possible vent source at seabed, (2) better constrain the Azores magma source(s) sampled through the Serreta submarine volcanic event, and (3) interpret the data within the small-scale mantle source heterogeneity framework that has been demonstrated for the Azores archipelago. Lava balloons sampled at sea surface display a radiogenic signature, which is also correlated with relatively primitive (low) 4He/3He isotopic ratios. Conversely, SSR lavas are characterized by significantly lower radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr, 206Pb/204Pb and 208Pb/204Pb ratios than the lava balloons and the onshore lavas from the Terceira Island. SSR lavas are primitive, but incompatible trace-enriched. Apparent decoupling between the enriched incompatible trace element abundances and depleted radiogenic isotope ratios is best explained by binary mixing of a depleted MORB source and a HIMU­type component into magma batches that evolved by similar shallower processes in their travel to the surface. The collected data suggest that the freshest samples collected in the SSR may correspond to volcanic products of an unnoticed and more recent eruption than the 1998-2001 episode.

Developing a supportive culture for teaching and learning : a university, faculty and school perspective

In the early 1990's the University of Salford was typical of most pre-1992 Universities in that whilst students provided much of it's income, little attention was paid to pedagogy. As Warren Piper (1994) observed, University teachers were professional in their subject areas but generally did not seek to acquire a pedagogy of HE. This was the case in Alsford. Courses were efficiently run but only a minority of staff were engaged in actively considering learning and teaching issues. Instead staff time was spent on research and commercial activity.----- In the mid-1990's the teaching environment began to change significantly. As well as Dearing, the advent of QAA and teaching quality reviews, Salford was already experiencing changes in the characteristics of its student body. Wideing access was on our agenda before it was so predominant nationally. With increasing numbers and heterogeneity of students as well as these external factors, new challenges were facing the University and teaching domain.----- This paper describes how a culture which values teaching, learning and pedagogic inquiry is being created in the university. It then focuses on parts of this process specific to the Faculty of Business and Informatics, namely the Faculty's Learning and Teaching Research Network and the establishment of the Centre for Construction Education in the School of Construction and Property Management.----- The Faculty of Business and Informatics' Learning and Teaching Research Network aims to raise the profile, quality and volume of pedagogic research across the five schools in the faculty. The initiative is targeted at all academics regardless of previous research experience. We hope to grow and nurture research potential where it exists and to acknowledge and use the existing expertise of subject-based researchers in collaborative ventures. We work on the principle that people are deliged to share what they know but need appreciation and feedback for doing so. A further ain is to surface and celebrate the significant amount of tacit knowledge in the area of pedagogy evidenced by the strength of student and employer feedback in many areas of the faculty's teaching.----- The Faculty embraces generic and core management expertise but also includes applied management disciplines in information systems and construction and property management where internationally leading research activities and networked centres of excellence have been established. Drawing from this experience, and within the context of the Faculty network, a Centre for Construction Education is being established with key international external partners to develop a sustainable business model of an enterprising pedagogic centre that can undertake useful research to underpin teaching in the Faculty whilst offering sustainable business services to allow it to benefit from pump-priming grant funding.----- Internal and external networking are important elements in our plans and ongoing work. Key to this are our links with the LTSN subject centres (BEST and CEBE) and the LTSN generic centre. The paper discusses networking as a concept and gives examples of practices which have proved useful in this context.----- The academic influences on our approach are also examined. Dixon’s (2000) work examining how a range of companies succeed through internal knowledge sharing has provided a range of transferable practices. We also examine the notion of dialogue in this context, defined by Ballantyne (1999) as ‘The interactive human process of reasoning together which comes into being through interactions based on spontaneity or need and is enabled by trust’ Social constructionist principles of Practical Authorship (Shotter, 1993, Pavlica, Holman and Thorpe, 1998)) have also proved useful in developing our perspective on learning and knowledge creation within our community of practice.

Prediction of fluidization behaviour and a quasi-stationary approach to drying kinetics of irregular particulate food materials

Changes in fluidization behaviour behaviour was characterised for parallelepiped particles with three aspect ratios, 1:1, 2:1 and 3:1 and spherical particles. All drying experiments were conducted at 500C and 15 % RH using a heat pump dehumidifier system. Fluidization experiments were undertaken for the bed heights of 100, 80, 60 and 40 mm and at 10 moisture content levels. Due to irregularities in shape minimum fluidisation velocity of parallelepiped particulates (potato) could not fitted to any empirical model. Also a generalized equation was used to predict minimum fluidization velocity. The modified quasi-stationary method (MQSM) has been proposed to describe drying kinetics of parallelepiped particulates at 30o C, 40o C and 50o C that dry mostly in the falling rate period in a batch type fluid bed dryer.

Passive control of a bi-ventricular assist device : an experimental and numerical investigation

For the last two decades heart disease has been the highest single cause of death for the human population. With an alarming number of patients requiring heart transplant, and donations not able to satisfy the demand, treatment looks to mechanical alternatives. Rotary Ventricular Assist Devices, VADs, are miniature pumps which can be implanted alongside the heart to assist its pumping function. These constant flow devices are smaller, more efficient and promise a longer operational life than more traditional pulsatile VADs. The development of rotary VADs has focused on single pumps assisting the left ventricle only to supply blood for the body. In many patients however, failure of both ventricles demands that an additional pulsatile device be used to support the failing right ventricle. This condition renders them hospital bound while they wait for an unlikely heart donation. Reported attempts to use two rotary pumps to support both ventricles concurrently have warned of inherent haemodynamic instability. Poor balancing of the pumps’ flow rates quickly leads to vascular congestion increasing the risk of oedema and ventricular ‘suckdown’ occluding the inlet to the pump. This thesis introduces a novel Bi-Ventricular Assist Device (BiVAD) configuration where the pump outputs are passively balanced by vascular pressure. The BiVAD consists of two rotary pumps straddling the mechanical passive controller. Fluctuations in vascular pressure induce small deflections within both pumps adjusting their outputs allowing them to maintain arterial pressure. To optimise the passive controller’s interaction with the circulation, the controller’s dynamic response is optimised with a spring, mass, damper arrangement. This two part study presents a comprehensive assessment of the prototype’s ‘viability’ as a support device. Its ‘viability’ was considered based on its sensitivity to pathogenic haemodynamics and the ability of the passive response to maintain healthy circulation. The first part of the study is an experimental investigation where a prototype device was designed and built, and then tested in a pulsatile mock circulation loop. The BiVAD was subjected to a range of haemodynamic imbalances as well as a dynamic analysis to assess the functionality of the mechanical damper. The second part introduces the development of a numerical program to simulate human circulation supported by the passively controlled BiVAD. Both investigations showed that the prototype was able to mimic the native baroreceptor response. Simulating hypertension, poor flow balancing and subsequent ventricular failure during BiVAD support allowed the passive controller’s response to be assessed. Triggered by the resulting pressure imbalance, the controller responded by passively adjusting the VAD outputs in order to maintain healthy arterial pressures. This baroreceptor-like response demonstrated the inherent stability of the auto regulating BiVAD prototype. Simulating pulmonary hypertension in the more observable numerical model, however, revealed a serious issue with the passive response. The subsequent decrease in venous return into the left heart went unnoticed by the passive controller. Meanwhile the coupled nature of the passive response not only decreased RVAD output to reduce pulmonary arterial pressure, but it also increased LVAD output. Consequently, the LVAD increased fluid evacuation from the left ventricle, LV, and so actually accelerated the onset of LV collapse. It was concluded that despite the inherently stable baroreceptor-like response of the passive controller, its lack of sensitivity to venous return made it unviable in its present configuration. The study revealed a number of other important findings. Perhaps the most significant was that the reduced pulse experienced during constant flow support unbalanced the ratio of effective resistances of both vascular circuits. Even during steady rotary support therefore, the resulting ventricle volume imbalance increased the likelihood of suckdown. Additionally, mechanical damping of the passive controller’s response successfully filtered out pressure fluctuations from residual ventricular function. Finally, the importance of recognising inertial contributions to blood flow in the atria and ventricles in a numerical simulation were highlighted. This thesis documents the first attempt to create a fully auto regulated rotary cardiac assist device. Initial results encourage development of an inlet configuration sensitive to low flow such as collapsible inlet cannulae. Combining this with the existing baroreceptor-like response of the passive controller will render a highly stable passively controlled BiVAD configuration. The prototype controller’s passive interaction with the vasculature is a significant step towards a highly stable new generation of artificial heart.

Reduction of Secondary Degeneration after Spinal Cord Injury by Acute Delivery of Proinflammatory Growth Factors

INTRODUCTION Inflammation is a protective attempt to facilitate the removal of damaged tissue and to initiate the healing response in other tissues. However, after spinal cord injury (SCI), this response is prolonged leading to secondary degeneration and glial scarring. Here, we investigate the potential of sustained delivery of pro-inflammatory factors vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and platelet derived growth factor (PDGF) to increase early inflammatory events and promote inflammatory resolution. Method Animal ethics approval was obtained from the Queensland University of Technology. Adult Wistar-Kyoto rats (12-16 weeks old) were subjected to laminectomies and T10 hemisections. Animals were then randomised to treatment (implantation of osmotic pump (Alzet) loaded with 5ug VEGF & 5 ug PDGF) or control groups (lesion control or lesion plus pump delivering PBS). Rats were sacrificed at one month and the spinal cords were harvested and examined by immunohistology, using anti-neurofilament-200(NF200) and anti- ionized calcium binding adapter molecule 1 (Iba1). One way ANOVA was used for statistic analysis. Results At 1 month, active pump-treated cords showed a high level of axonal filament throughout the defects as compared to the control groups. The mean lesion size, as measured by NF200, was 0.47mm2 for the lesion control, 0.39mm2 for the vehicle control and 0.078mm2 for the active pump group. Significant differences were detected between the active pump group and the two control groups (AP vs LC p= 0.017 AG vs VC p= 0.004). Iba-1 staining also showed significant differences in the post-injury inflammatory response. Discussion We have shown that axons and activated microglia are co-located in the lesion of the treated cord. We hypothesise the delivery of VEGF/PDGF increases the local vessel permeability to inflammatory cells and activates these along with the resident microglia to threshold population, which ultimately resolved the prolonged inflammation. Here, we have shown that maintaining the inflammatory signals for at least 7 days improved the morphology of the injured cord. Conclusion This study has shown that boosting inflammation, by delivery VEGF/PDGF, in the early phase of SCI helps to reduce secondary degeneration and may promote inflammation resolution. This treatment may provide a platform for other neuro-regenrative therapies.

AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0907, July 2009 : President's Message

President’s Message AITPM President’s Message, July 2009 Hello fellow AITPM members, It’s now very early July so many Australians are going to experience a range of new, or increases in, fees, charges, and perhaps taxes by State and local governments. For example, Queenslanders are to be hit at the petrol pump, no longer living with the luxury of the State’s previous 8c per litre fuel subsidy, bringing general motorists’ fuel costs into line with the other States. A consolation is that they now don’t have to live with the real or perceived “price gouging” that has appeared in the past to make Queensland prices much closer than 8c to those in other States. Environmental lobbyists argue that this Government’s decision brings public transport costs closer to parity with private transport. However, my sense from sloppy petrol price elasticities is that the State’s motorists will get used to the reversal of what was a reverse tax pretty quickly, an amount which can be less than day-of-the week fluctuation. On the other hand, withholding this State revenue may help in some way the funding of the several major public transport infrastructure projects in progress; not to mention some of the cost of running the Transit Authority’s expanding service commitments. Other policy actions, such as a Federal Government review of taxation on employees’ package vehicles, which might discourage rather than encourage excess kilometres travelled, may have a greater environmental benefit. Of course, a downside is that many vehicles used so are Australian built, and discouraging fleet turnover may damage an industry which faces ever increasing uncertainty, and particularly at the present, is in need of some care and attention. I for one hope to this end that the new 4 cylinder (1.8L petrol or 2L diesel) so called “true Holden” Cruze and Toyota’s pending Camry Hybrid are both roaring successes, and will be taken up in droves as fleet and employee use vehicles. I’m not sure what drive-trains Ford and Holden plan to drop into their next full sized models but even if they’re not Australian sourced, let’s hope they coordinate the requisite performance expected by the “Aussie Battler” with suitable green credentials. I am also encouraged to see that already many Government fleet vehicles are smaller in size, but still fit for purpose. For instance, my local police station uses the Camry based Aurion as a district car. I close again in reminding everyone that AITPM’s flagship event, the 2009 AITPM National Conference, Traffic Beyond Tomorrow, is being held in Adelaide from 5 to 7 August. www.aitpm.com has all of the details about how to register, sponsor a booth, session, etc. Best regards all, Jon Bunker

Groundwater flow model of the Logan river alluvial aquifer system Josephville, South East Queensland

The study focuses on an alluvial plain situated within a large meander of the Logan River at Josephville near Beaudesert which supports a factory that processes gelatine. The plant draws water from on site bores, as well as the Logan River, for its production processes and produces approximately 1.5 ML per day (Douglas Partners, 2004) of waste water containing high levels of dissolved ions. At present a series of treatment ponds are used to aerate the waste water reducing the level of organic matter; the water is then used to irrigate grazing land around the site. Within the study the hydrogeology is investigated, a conceptual groundwater model is produced and a numerical groundwater flow model is developed from this. On the site are several bores that access groundwater, plus a network of monitoring bores. Assessment of drilling logs shows the area is formed from a mixture of poorly sorted Quaternary alluvial sediments with a laterally continuous aquifer comprised of coarse sands and fine gravels that is in contact with the river. This aquifer occurs at a depth of between 11 and 15 metres and is overlain by a heterogeneous mixture of silts, sands and clays. The study investigates the degree of interaction between the river and the groundwater within the fluvially derived sediments for reasons of both environmental monitoring and sustainability of the potential local groundwater resource. A conceptual hydrogeological model of the site proposes two hydrostratigraphic units, a basal aquifer of coarse-grained materials overlain by a thick semi-confining unit of finer materials. From this, a two-layer groundwater flow model and hydraulic conductivity distribution was developed based on bore monitoring and rainfall data using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) and PEST (Doherty, 2004) based on GMS 6.5 software (EMSI, 2008). A second model was also considered with the alluvium represented as a single hydrogeological unit. Both models were calibrated to steady state conditions and sensitivity analyses of the parameters has demonstrated that both models are very stable for changes in the range of ± 10% for all parameters and still reasonably stable for changes up to ± 20% with RMS errors in the model always less that 10%. The preferred two-layer model was found to give the more realistic representation of the site, where water level variations and the numerical modeling showed that the basal layer of coarse sands and fine gravels is hydraulically connected to the river and the upper layer comprising a poorly sorted mixture of silt-rich clays and sands of very low permeability limits infiltration from the surface to the lower layer. The paucity of historical data has limited the numerical modelling to a steady state one based on groundwater levels during a drought period and forecasts for varying hydrological conditions (e.g. short term as well as prolonged dry and wet conditions) cannot reasonably be made from such a model. If future modelling is to be undertaken it is necessary to establish a regular program of groundwater monitoring and maintain a long term database of water levels to enable a transient model to be developed at a later stage. This will require a valid monitoring network to be designed with additional bores required for adequate coverage of the hydrogeological conditions at the Josephville site. Further investigations would also be enhanced by undertaking pump testing to investigate hydrogeological properties in the aquifer.

Density variation of different shaped food particulates in fluid bed drying : empirical models

Three particular geometrical shapes of parallelepiped, cylindrical and spheres were selected from potatoes (aspect ratio = 1:1, 2:1, 3:1), cut beans (length:diameter = 1:1, 2:1, 3:1) and peas respectively. The density variation of food particulates was studied in a batch fluidised bed dryer connected to a heat pump dehumidifier system. Apparent density and bulk density were evaluated with non-dimensional moisture at three different drying temperatures of 30, 40 and 50 o C. Relative humidity of hot air was kept at 15% in all drying temperatures. Several empirical relationships were developed for the determination of changes in densities with the moisture content. Simple mathematical models were obtained to relate apparent density and bulk density with moisture content.

Accelerated Partial Breast Irradiation (APBI) : a review of available techniques

Breast conservation therapy (BCT) is the procedure of choice for the management of the early stage breast cancer. However, its utilization has not been maximized because of logistics issues associated with the protracted treatment involved with the radiation treatment. Accelerated Partial Breast Irradiation (APBI) is an approach that treats only the lumpectomy bed plus a 1-2 cm margin, rather than the whole breast. Hence because of the small volume of irradiation a higher dose can be delivered in a shorter period of time. There has been growing interest for APBI and various approaches have been developed under phase I-III clinical studies; these include multicatheter interstitial brachytherapy, balloon catheter brachytherapy, conformal external beam radiation therapy and intra-operative radiation therapy (IORT). Balloon-based brachytherapy approaches include Mammosite, Axxent electronic brachytherapy and Contura, Hybrid brachytherapy devices include SAVI and ClearPath. This paper reviews the different techniques, identifying the weaknesses and strength of each approach and proposes a direction for future research and development. It is evident that APBI will play a role in the management of a selected group of early breast cancer. However, the relative role of the different techniques is yet to be clearly identified.

Axial magnetic bearing development for the BiVACOR Rotary BiVAD/TAH

A suspension system for the BiVACOR biventricular assist device (BiVAD) has been developed and tested. The device features two semi-open centrifugal impellers mounted on a common rotating hub. Flow balancing is achieved through the movement of the rotor in the axial direction. The rotor is suspended in the pump casings by an active magnetic suspension system in the axial direction and a passive hydrodynamic bearing in the radial direction. This paper investigates the axial movement capacity of themagnetic bearing system and the power consumption at various operating points. The force capacity of the passive hydrodynamic bearing is investigated using a viscous glycerol solution. Axial rotor movement in the range of ±0.15 mm is confirmed and power consumption is under 15.5 W. The journal bearing is shown to stabilize the rotor in the radial direction at the required operating speed. Magnetic levitation is a viable suspension technique for the impeller of an artificial heart to improve device lifetime and reduce blood damage.

Using a siphon to drain floodwaters

This article describes how to use a siphon to drain floodwaters. A siphon is a tube that conveys water to a lower level via point above the upper water level by gravity. A siphon can be set up to drain existing floodwaters more quickly than they would naturally and can also prevent flooding. Siphons are particularly useful in situations where no pump is available, and a drainage point exists lower than the level of the floodwaters. Some case studies are presented.

Energy and cost savings from pipe insulation on domestic, pumped storage (split), solar water heating systems in Australia and New Zealand

Appropriate pipe insulation on domestic, pumped storage (split), solar water heating systems forms an integral part of energy conservation measures of well engineered systems. However, its importance over the life of the system is often overlooked. This study outlines the findings of computer modelling to quantify the energy and cost savings by using pipe insulation between the collector and storage tank. System sizes of 270 Litre storage tank, together with either selectively surfaced, flat plate collectors (4m2 area), or 30 evacuated tube collectors, were used. Insulation thicknesses of 13mm and 15mm, pipe runs both ways of 10, 15 and 20 metres and both electric and gas boosting of systems were all considered. The TRNSYS program was used to model the system performance at a representative city in each of the 6 climate zones for Australia and New Zealand, according to AS/NZS4234 – Heat Water Systems – Calculation of energy consumption and the ORER RECs calculation method. The results show:  Energy savings from pipe insulation are very significant, even in mild climates such as Rockhampton. Across all climates zones, savings ranged from 0.16 to 3.5GJ per system per year, or about 2 to 23 percent of the annual load.  There is very little advantage in increasing the insulation thickness from 13 to 15mm. For electricity at 19c/kWh and gas at 2 c/MJ, cost savings of between $27 and $100 per year are achieved across the climate zones. Both energy and cost savings would increase in colder climates with increased system size, solar contribution and water temperatures.  The pipe insulation substantially improves the solar contribution (or fraction) and Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs), as well as giving small savings in circulating pump running costs in milder climates. Solar contribution increased by up to 23 percent points and RECs by over 7 in some cases.  The study highlights the need to install and maintain the integrity of appropriate pipe insulation on solar water heaters over their life time in Australia and New Zealand.

Machine prognostics based on health state probability estimation

The ability to accurately predict the remaining useful life of machine components is critical for machine continuous operation and can also improve productivity and enhance system’s safety. In condition-based maintenance (CBM), maintenance is performed based on information collected through condition monitoring and assessment of the machine health. Effective diagnostics and prognostics are important aspects of CBM for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before the components actually fail. Although a variety of prognostic methodologies have been reported recently, their application in industry is still relatively new and mostly focused on the prediction of specific component degradations. Furthermore, they required significant and sufficient number of fault indicators to accurately prognose the component faults. Hence, sufficient usage of health indicators in prognostics for the effective interpretation of machine degradation process is still required. Major challenges for accurate longterm prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) still remain to be addressed. Therefore, continuous development and improvement of a machine health management system and accurate long-term prediction of machine remnant life is required in real industry application. This thesis presents an integrated diagnostics and prognostics framework based on health state probability estimation for accurate and long-term prediction of machine remnant life. In the proposed model, prior empirical (historical) knowledge is embedded in the integrated diagnostics and prognostics system for classification of impending faults in machine system and accurate probability estimation of discrete degradation stages (health states). The methodology assumes that machine degradation consists of a series of degraded states (health states) which effectively represent the dynamic and stochastic process of machine failure. The estimation of discrete health state probability for the prediction of machine remnant life is performed using the ability of classification algorithms. To employ the appropriate classifier for health state probability estimation in the proposed model, comparative intelligent diagnostic tests were conducted using five different classifiers applied to the progressive fault data of three different faults in a high pressure liquefied natural gas (HP-LNG) pump. As a result of this comparison study, SVMs were employed in heath state probability estimation for the prediction of machine failure in this research. The proposed prognostic methodology has been successfully tested and validated using a number of case studies from simulation tests to real industry applications. The results from two actual failure case studies using simulations and experiments indicate that accurate estimation of health states is achievable and the proposed method provides accurate long-term prediction of machine remnant life. In addition, the results of experimental tests show that the proposed model has the capability of providing early warning of abnormal machine operating conditions by identifying the transitional states of machine fault conditions. Finally, the proposed prognostic model is validated through two industrial case studies. The optimal number of health states which can minimise the model training error without significant decrease of prediction accuracy was also examined through several health states of bearing failure. The results were very encouraging and show that the proposed prognostic model based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as a generic and scalable asset health estimation tool in industrial machinery.