Why are capital flows so much more volatile in emerging than in developed countries?

The standard deviations of capital flows to emerging countries are 80 percent higher than those to developed countries. First, we show that very little of this difference can be explained by more volatile fundamentals or by higher sensitivity to fundamentals. Second, we show that most of the difference in volatility can be accounted for by three characteristics of capital flows: (i) capital flows to emerging countries are more subject to occasional large negative shocks ( crises ) than those to developed countries, (ii) shocks are subject to contagion, and (iii) the most important one shocks to capital flows to emerging countries are more persistent than those to developed countries. Finally, we study a number of country characteristics to determine which are most associated with capital flow volatility. Our results suggest that underdevelopment of domestic financial markets, weak institutions, and low income per capita, are all associated with capital flow volatility.

Productivity growth and the exchange rate regime: The role of financial development

This paper offers empirical evidence that a country's choice of exchange rate regime can have a signifficant impact on its medium-term rate of productivity growth. Moreover, the impact depends critically on the country's level of financial development, its degree of market regulation, and its distance from the global technology frontier. We illustrate how each of these channels may operate in a simple stylized growth model in which real exchange rate uncertainty exacerbates the negative investment e¤ects of domestic credit market constraints. The empirical analysis is based on an 83 country data set spanning the years 1960-2000. Our approach delivers results that are in striking contrast to the vast existing empirical exchange rate literature, which largely finds the effects of exchange rate volatility on real activity to be relatively small and insignificant.

Recreating the South Sea bubble: Lessons from an experiment in financial history

Major bubble episodes are rare events. In this paper, we examine what factors might cause some asset price bubbles to become very large. We recreate, in a laboratory setting, some of the specific institutional features investors in the South Sea Company faced in 1720. Several factors have been proposed as potentially contributing to one of the greatest periods of asset overvaluation in history: an intricate debt-for-equity swap, deferred payment for these shares, and the possibility of default on the deferred payments. We consider which aspect might have had the most impact in creating the South Sea bubble. The results of the experiment suggest that the company?s attempt to exchange its shares for government debt was the single biggest contributor to the stock price explosion, because of the manner in which the swap affected fundamental value. Issuing new shares with only partial payments required, in conjunction with the debt-equity swap, also had a significant effect on the size of the bubble. Limited contract enforcement, on the other hand, does not appear to have contributed significantly.

"Vinci Cosmetics" Fabricación y comercialización de productos cosméticos

Contexto: La idea principal es la creación de una empresa para la fabricación y comercialización de productos cosméticos de alta gama. A pesar del contexto de crisis económica en el que estamos envueltos estos últimos años y del que no parece que acabamos de salir, el sector de la cosmética está resistiendo la situación de forma envidiable. De la crisis, como dicen los economistas, “se saldrá y se volverá, todo es cíclico” y viendo la fortaleza que éste sector está mostrando unido a la necesidad de que nuestra economía abandone sectores muy deteriorados y sin una previsión positiva de futuro, la cosmética se postula con un futuro prometedor dentro del contexto económico español y europeo. “Vinci Cosmetics” es el nombre inicialmente pensado para que la nueva compañía inicie su andadura. Nombre con tintes latinos de la lejana época del imperio romano como homenaje a la rica herencia histórica de la ciudad del autor del proyecto - Tarragona. La cultura por cuidarse y sentirse bien, muy arraigada en la mentalidad latina y mediterránea, es un factor cultural clave para el desarrollo y futura evolución de esta industria. El slogan de la empresa, “Dieta Mediterránea para tu piel”, clarifica en buena medida la idea a desarrollar y los objetivos pretendidos por la estrategia empresarial. Objetivos: El objetivo esencial del TFC es elaborar un estudio detallado para la creación de una empresa de fabricación y comercialización de productos cosméticos de alta gama que abarque el management y la gestión por procesos de la empresa, la función de marketing, el tipo de operaciones y procesos a realizar, la gestión del factor humano y el presupuesto necesario para cubrir este ambicioso proyecto. En detalle, un completo plan de empresa que marque las directrices de la organización industrial que se pretende crear compuesto a su vez por cinco planes: plan de gerencia, plan de marketing, plan de operaciones, plan de recursos humanos y plan económico – financiero. Procedimientos: El proyecto tiene un alto componente de estudio de mercados y de marketing pero pretende también abarcar el management, los procesos de operación, el factor humano y el aspecto económico y financiero de las inversiones y presupuesto necesario. El estudio inicial centrará su esfuerzo en un análisis del mercado de la península ibérica, y, en función del avance y del progreso esperado por la empresa, la compañía podría extender su campo de acción a Europa aunque no antes de un medio plazo. “Vinci Cosmetics” ha adoptado referenciales de sistemas de gestión integrados en toda la organización. Así tenemos principalmente, por un lado, la norma internacional ISO 9001:2008 y, por otro, el Modelo EFQM de Excelencia en la gestión; ambos plasmados a partir de un enfoque basado en procesos que nos garantiza el control continuo y la gestión excelente. Conclusiones: Tras evaluar la situación actual del mercado de la cosmética, las previsiones futuras de éste y las necesidades que una organización industrial necesita, se puede crear - con plenas garantías de éxito como organización empresarial y desde el punto de vista económico - una empresa de cosméticos de alta gama para cubrir las necesidades de una parte de mercado que lo requiere.

ITMIG consensus statement on the use of the WHO histological classification of thymoma and thymic carcinoma: refined definitions, histological criteria, and reporting.

INTRODUCTION: The 2004 version of the World Health Organization classification subdivides thymic epithelial tumors into A, AB, B1, B2, and B3 (and rare other) thymomas and thymic carcinomas (TC). Due to a morphological continuum between some thymoma subtypes and some morphological overlap between thymomas and TC, a variable proportion of cases may pose problems in classification, contributing to the poor interobserver reproducibility in some studies. METHODS: To overcome this problem, hematoxylin-eosin-stained and immunohistochemically processed sections of prototypic, "borderland," and "combined" thymomas and TC (n = 72) were studied by 18 pathologists at an international consensus slide workshop supported by the International Thymic Malignancy Interest Group. RESULTS: Consensus was achieved on refined criteria for decision making at the A/AB borderland, the distinction between B1, B2, and B3 thymomas and the separation of B3 thymomas from TCs. "Atypical type A thymoma" is tentatively proposed as a new type A thymoma variant. New reporting strategies for tumors with more than one histological pattern are proposed. CONCLUSION: These guidelines can set the stage for reproducibility studies and the design of a clinically meaningful grading system for thymic epithelial tumors.

International Standardisation and Local Participatory Dynamics : The INTERNORM Project

This paper presents a pilot project (INTERNORM) funded by the University of Lausanne (2010 - 2013) to support the involvement of civil society organisations (CSO) in international standard setting bodies such as the ISO. It analyses how a distinct participatory mechanism can influence the institutional environment of technical diplomacy in which standards are shaped. The project is an attempt to respond to the democratic deficit attested in the field of international standardisation, formally open to civil society participation, but still largely dominated by expert knowledge and market players. Many international standards have direct implications on society as a whole, but CSOs (consumers and environmental associations, trade unions) are largely under-represented in negotiation arenas. The paper draws upon international relations literature on new institutional forms in global governance and studies of participation in science and technology. It argues that there are significant limitations to the rise of civil society participation in such global governance mechanisms. The INTERNORM project has been designed as a platform of knowledge exchange between CSO and academic experts, with earmarked funding and official membership to a national standardisation body. But INTERNORM cannot substitute for a long- established lack of resources in time, money and expertise of CSOs. Despite high entry costs into technical diplomacy, participation thus appears as less a matter of upstream engagement, or of procedure only, than of dedicated means to shift the geometry of actors and the framing of socio-technical change.

[(18)F]FDG-PET Standard Uptake Value as a Metabolic Predictor of Bone Marrow Response to Radiation: Impact on Acute and Late Hematological Toxicity in Cervical Cancer Patients Treated With Chemoradiation Therapy.

PURPOSE: To quantify the relationship between bone marrow (BM) response to radiation and radiation dose by using (18)F-labeled fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography [(18)F]FDG-PET standard uptake values (SUV) and to correlate these findings with hematological toxicity (HT) in cervical cancer (CC) patients treated with chemoradiation therapy (CRT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: Seventeen women with a diagnosis of CC were treated with standard doses of CRT. All patients underwent pre- and post-therapy [(18)F]FDG-PET/computed tomography (CT). Hemograms were obtained before and during treatment and 3 months after treatment and at last follow-up. Pelvic bone was autosegmented as total bone marrow (BMTOT). Active bone marrow (BMACT) was contoured based on SUV greater than the mean SUV of BMTOT. The volumes (V) of each region receiving 10, 20, 30, and 40 Gy (V10, V20, V30, and V40, respectively) were calculated. Metabolic volume histograms and voxel SUV map response graphs were created. Relative changes in SUV before and after therapy were calculated by separating SUV voxels into radiation therapy dose ranges of 5 Gy. The relationships among SUV decrease, radiation dose, and HT were investigated using multiple regression models. RESULTS: Mean relative pre-post-therapy SUV reductions in BMTOT and BMACT were 27% and 38%, respectively. BMACT volume was significantly reduced after treatment (from 651.5 to 231.6 cm(3), respectively; P<.0001). BMACT V30 was significantly correlated with a reduction in BMACT SUV (R(2), 0.14; P<.001). The reduction in BMACT SUV significantly correlated with reduction in white blood cells (WBCs) at 3 months post-treatment (R(2), 0.27; P=.04) and at last follow-up (R(2), 0.25; P=.04). Different dosimetric parameters of BMTOT and BMACT correlated with long-term hematological outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The volumes of BMTOT and BMACT that are exposed to even relatively low doses of radiation are associated with a decrease in WBC counts following CRT. The loss in proliferative BM SUV uptake translates into low WBC nadirs after treatment. These results suggest the potential of intensity modulated radiation therapy to spare BMTOT to reduce long-term hematological toxicity.

Three essays in financial economics: asset pricing, optimal portfolio selection and financial integration

Executive Summary The unifying theme of this thesis is the pursuit of a satisfactory ways to quantify the riskureward trade-off in financial economics. First in the context of a general asset pricing model, then across models and finally across country borders. The guiding principle in that pursuit was to seek innovative solutions by combining ideas from different fields in economics and broad scientific research. For example, in the first part of this thesis we sought a fruitful application of strong existence results in utility theory to topics in asset pricing. In the second part we implement an idea from the field of fuzzy set theory to the optimal portfolio selection problem, while the third part of this thesis is to the best of our knowledge, the first empirical application of some general results in asset pricing in incomplete markets to the important topic of measurement of financial integration. While the first two parts of this thesis effectively combine well-known ways to quantify the risk-reward trade-offs the third one can be viewed as an empirical verification of the usefulness of the so-called "good deal bounds" theory in designing risk-sensitive pricing bounds. Chapter 1 develops a discrete-time asset pricing model, based on a novel ordinally equivalent representation of recursive utility. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to use a member of a novel class of recursive utility generators to construct a representative agent model to address some long-lasting issues in asset pricing. Applying strong representation results allows us to show that the model features countercyclical risk premia, for both consumption and financial risk, together with low and procyclical risk free rate. As the recursive utility used nests as a special case the well-known time-state separable utility, all results nest the corresponding ones from the standard model and thus shed light on its well-known shortcomings. The empirical investigation to support these theoretical results, however, showed that as long as one resorts to econometric methods based on approximating conditional moments with unconditional ones, it is not possible to distinguish the model we propose from the standard one. Chapter 2 is a join work with Sergei Sontchik. There we provide theoretical and empirical motivation for aggregation of performance measures. The main idea is that as it makes sense to apply several performance measures ex-post, it also makes sense to base optimal portfolio selection on ex-ante maximization of as many possible performance measures as desired. We thus offer a concrete algorithm for optimal portfolio selection via ex-ante optimization over different horizons of several risk-return trade-offs simultaneously. An empirical application of that algorithm, using seven popular performance measures, suggests that realized returns feature better distributional characteristics relative to those of realized returns from portfolio strategies optimal with respect to single performance measures. When comparing the distributions of realized returns we used two partial risk-reward orderings first and second order stochastic dominance. We first used the Kolmogorov Smirnov test to determine if the two distributions are indeed different, which combined with a visual inspection allowed us to demonstrate that the way we propose to aggregate performance measures leads to portfolio realized returns that first order stochastically dominate the ones that result from optimization only with respect to, for example, Treynor ratio and Jensen's alpha. We checked for second order stochastic dominance via point wise comparison of the so-called absolute Lorenz curve, or the sequence of expected shortfalls for a range of quantiles. As soon as the plot of the absolute Lorenz curve for the aggregated performance measures was above the one corresponding to each individual measure, we were tempted to conclude that the algorithm we propose leads to portfolio returns distribution that second order stochastically dominates virtually all performance measures considered. Chapter 3 proposes a measure of financial integration, based on recent advances in asset pricing in incomplete markets. Given a base market (a set of traded assets) and an index of another market, we propose to measure financial integration through time by the size of the spread between the pricing bounds of the market index, relative to the base market. The bigger the spread around country index A, viewed from market B, the less integrated markets A and B are. We investigate the presence of structural breaks in the size of the spread for EMU member country indices before and after the introduction of the Euro. We find evidence that both the level and the volatility of our financial integration measure increased after the introduction of the Euro. That counterintuitive result suggests the presence of an inherent weakness in the attempt to measure financial integration independently of economic fundamentals. Nevertheless, the results about the bounds on the risk free rate appear plausible from the view point of existing economic theory about the impact of integration on interest rates.

Online teaching of inflammatory skin pathology by a French-speaking international university network

Introduction: Developments in technology, webbased teaching and whole slide imaging have broadened the teaching horizon in anatomic pathology. Creating online learning material including many types of media like radiologic images, videos, clinical and macroscopic photographs and whole slides imaging is now accessible to almost every university. Unfortunately, a major limiting factor to maintain and update the learning material is the amount of work, time and resources needed. In this perspective, a French national university network was initiated in 2011 to build mutualised online teaching pathology modules with clinical cases and tests. This network has been extended to an international level in 2012-2014 (Quebec, Switzerland and Ivory Coast). Method: One of the first steps of the international project was to build a learning module on inflammatory skin pathology intended for interns and residents of pathology and dermatology. A pathology resident from Quebec spent 6 weeks in France and Switzerland to develop the contents and build the module on an e-learning Moodle platform (http: //moodle.sorbonne-paris-cite.fr) under the supervision of two dermatopathologists (BV, MB). The learning module contains text, interactive clinical cases, tests with feedback, whole slides images (WSI), images and clinical photographs. For that module, the virtual slides are decentralized in 2 universities (Bordeaux and Paris 7). Each university is responsible of its own slide scanning, image storage and online display with virtual slide viewers. Results: The module on inflammatory skin pathology includes more than 50 web pages with French original content, tests and clinical cases, links to over 45 WSI and more than 50 micro and clinical photographs. The whole learning module is currently being revised by four dermatopathologists and two senior pathologists. It will be accessible to interns and residents in spring 2014. The experience and knowledge gained from that work will be transferred to the next international fellowship intern whose work will be aimed at creating lung and breast pathology learning modules. Conclusion: The challenges of sustaining a project of this scope are numerous. The technical aspect of whole-slide imaging and storage needs to be developed by each university or group. The content needs to be regularly updated, completed and its use and existence needs to be promoted by the different actors in pathology. Of the great benefits of that kind of project are the international partnerships and connections that have been established between numerous Frenchspeaking universities and pathologists with the common goals of promoting education in pathology and the use of technology including whole slide imaging. * The Moodle website is hosted by PRES Sorbonne Paris Cité, and financial supports for hardware have been obtained from UNF3S (http://www.unf3s.org/) and PRES Sorbonne Paris Cité. Financial support for international fellowships has been obtained from CFQCU (http://www.cfqcu.org/).

Correlation of the IJK Roadmeter to the International Roughness Index, MLR-91-5, 1992

The Iowa Department of Transportation has been determining a present serviceability index (PSI) on the primary highway system since 1968. A CHLOE profilometer has been used as the standard for calibrating the Roadmeters that do the system survey. The current Roadmeter, an IJK Iowa DOT developed unit, is not considered an acceptable Roadmeter for determining the FHWA required International Roughness Index (IRI). Iowa purchased a commercial version of the South Dakota type profile (SD Unit) to obtain IRI. This study was undertaken to correlate the IRI to the IJK Roadmeter and retire the Roadmeter. One hundred forty-seven pavement management sections (IPMS) were tested in June and July 1991 with both units. Correlation coefficients and standard error of estimates were: r' Std. Error PCC pavements 0.81 0.15 Composite pavements 0.71 0.18 ACC pavements 0.77 0.17 The correlation equations developed from this work will allow use of the IRI to predict the IJK Roadmeter response with sufficient accuracy. Trend analysis should also not be affected.

Correlation of the Roughometer to the High-Speed Laser Profiler, MLR-97-7, 1997

The Iowa Department of Transportation has been using the Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) Roughometer as part of its detour analysis process for more than 20 years. Advances in technology have made the BPR Roughometer obsolete for ride quality testing. High-speed profilers that can collect the profile of the road at highway speeds are the standard ride instruments for determining ride quality on pavements. The objective of the project was to develop a correlation between the BPR Roughometer and the high-speed laser South Dakota type Profiler (SD Profiler). Nineteen pavement sections were chosen to represent the range of types and conditions for detours. Three computer simulation models were tested on the profiler profiles. The first model is the International Ride Index (IRI) which is considered the standard index for reporting ride quality in the United States. The second model is the Ride Number (RN) developed by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute and the third model used is a quarter-car simulation of the BPR Roughometer (ASTM E-1170) which should match the speed and range of roadway features experienced by Iowa's BPR Roughometer Unit. The BPR Roughometer quarter-car model provided the best overall correlation with Iowa's BPR Roughometer.

Standard Specifications for Highway and Bridge Construction, 2012

When referenced, the 2012 edition of the Iowa Department of Transportation’s (Iowa DOT) Standard Specifications for Highway and Bridge Construction shall be used for contract work awarded by the Iowa DOT. They may also be incorporated by reference in other contract work on secondary, urban, local systems, or other contract work in which the Iowa DOT has an interest. As modified by the General Supplemental Specifications, these Standard Specifications represent the minimum requirements and may be modified by Supplemental Specifications, Developmental Specifications, and Special Provisions on specific contracts. These Standard Specifications have been written so the Contractor’s responsibilities are indicated by plain language using the Imperative Mood and Active Voice form. Sentences are of the form: Construct isolation joints at all points where driveways meet other walks, curbs, or fixtures in the surface. Ensure finished members are true to detailed dimensions and free from twists, bends, open joints, or other defects resulting from faulty fabrication or defective work. Personnel preparing the JMF shall be Iowa DOT certified in bituminous mix design. The Contracting Authority’s responsibilities are (with some exceptions) indicated by the use of the modal verb “will”. Sentences are of the form: The Engineer will obtain and test density samples for each lot according to Materials I.M. 204. Payment will be the contract unit price for Fabric Reinforcement per square yard (square meter). These standard specifications contain dual units of measure: the United States Standard measure (English units) and the International System of Units (SI or “metric” units). The English units are expressed first then followed by the metric units in parentheses. The measurements expressed in the two systems are not necessarily equal. In some cases the measurements in metric units is a “hard” conversion of the English measurement; i.e. the metric unit has been approximated with a rounded, rationalized metric measurement that is easy to work with and remember. The proposal form will identify whether the work was designed and shall be constructed in English or metric units.

The INTERNORM Project: Bridging Two Worlds of Expert- and Lay-Knowledge in Standardization

This paper presents a pilot project to reinforce participatory practices in standardization. The INTERNORM project creates an interactive knowledge center based on the sharing of academic skills and experiences accumulated by the civil society, especially consumer associations, environmental associations and trade unions to strengthen the participatory process of standardization. The first objective of the project is action-oriented: INTERNORM provides a common knowledge pool supporting the participation of civil society actors to international standard-setting activities by bringing them together with academic experts in working groups and providing logistic and financial support to their participation in meetings of national and international technical committees. The second objective is analytical: the standardization action provides a research field for a better understanding of the participatory dynamics underpinning international standardization. This paper presents three incentives that explain civil society (non-)involvement in standardization that overcome conventional resource-based hypotheses: an operational incentive related to the use of standards in the selective goods provided by associations to their membership; a thematic incentive provided by the setting of priorities by strategic committees created in some standardization organization; and a rhetorical incentive related to the discursive resource that civil society concerns offers to the different stakeholders.

The effect of endocrine responsiveness on high-risk breast cancer treated with dose-intensive chemotherapy: results of International Breast Cancer Study Group Trial 15-95 after prolonged follow-up.

BACKGROUND: The role of adjuvant dose-intensive chemotherapy and its efficacy according to baseline features has not yet been established. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Three hundred and forty-four patients were randomized to receive seven courses of standard-dose chemotherapy (SD-CT) or three cycles of dose-intensive epirubicin and cyclophosphamide (epirubicin 200 mg/m(2) plus cyclophosphamide 4 mg/m(2) with filgrastim and progenitor cell support). All patients were assigned tamoxifen at the completion of chemotherapy. The primary end point was disease-free survival (DFS). This paper updates the results and explores patterns of recurrence according to predicting baseline features. RESULTS: At 8.3-years median follow-up, patients assigned DI-EC had a significantly better DFS compared with those assigned SD-CT [8-year DFS percent 47% and 37%, respectively, hazard ratio (HR) 0.76; 95% confidence interval 0.58-1.00; P = 0.05]. Only patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease benefited from the DI-EC (HR 0.61; 95% confidence interval 0.39, 0.95; P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: After prolonged follow-up, DI-EC significantly improved DFS, but the effect was observed only in patients with ER-positive disease, leading to the hypothesis that efficacy of DI-EC may relate to its endocrine effects. Further studies designed to confirm the importance of endocrine responsiveness in patients treated with dose-intensive chemotherapy are encouraged.