Can Italy and Spain survive rates of 6-7%? CEPS Policy Brief No. 279, 27 July 2012

The sentiment that the euro is now in real danger is based in large part on the widespread conviction that interest rates of 6-7% are simply unsustainable for both Italy and Spain., After taking a closer look at the fundamentals, however, Daniel Gros concludes in this new Policy Brief that both countries should be able to live with this level of interest rates for quite some time, but only if they mobilize domestic savings, which remain strong in both countries. For Spain, some debt/equity swaps are also needed.

The simple macroeconomics of North and South in EMU. Bruegel Working Paper 2012/12, 30 July 2012

The euro area today consists of a competitive, moderately leveraged North and an uncompetitive, over-indebted South. Its main macroeconomic challenge is to carry out the adjustment required to restore the competitiveness of its southern part and eliminate its excessive public and private debt burden. This paper investigates the relationship between fiscal and competitiveness adjustment in a stylised model with two countries in a monetary union, North and South. To restore competitiveness, South implements a more restrictive fiscal policy than North. We consider two scenarios. In the first, monetary policy aims at keeping inflation constant in the North. The South therefore needs to deflate to regain competitiveness, which worsens the debt dynamics. In the second, monetary policy aims at keeping inflation constant in the monetary union as a whole. This results in more monetary stimulus, inflation in the North is higher, and this in turn helps the debt dynamics in the South. Our main findings are: •The differential fiscal stance between North and South is what determines real exchange rate changes. South therefore needs to tighten more. There is no escape from relative austerity. •If monetary policy aims at keeping inflation stable in the North and the initial debt is above a certain threshold, debt dynamics are perverse: fiscal retrenchment is self-defeating; •If monetary policy targets average inflation instead, which implies higher inflation in the North, the initial debt threshold above which the debt dynamics become perverse is higher. Accepting more inflation at home is therefore a way for the North to contribute to restoring debt sustainability in the South. •Structural reforms in the South improve the debt dynamics if the initial debt is not too high. Again, targeting average inflation rather than inflation in the North helps strengthen the favourable effects of structural reforms.

Intra-Euro rebalancing is inevitable, but insufficient. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/15, August 2012

Greece, Portugal and Spain face a serious risk of external solvency due to their close to minus 100 percent of GDP net negative international investment positions, which are largely composed of debt. The perceived inability of these countries to rebalance their external positions is a major root of the euro crisis. Intra-euro rebalancing through declines in unit labour costs (ULC) in southern Europe, and ULC increases in northern Europe should continue, but has limits because: The share of intra-euro trade has declined. Intra-euro trade balances have already adjusted to a great extent. The intra-euro real exchange rates of Greece, Portugal and Spain have also either already adjusted or do not indicate significant appreciations since 2000. There are only two main current account surplus countries, Germany and the Netherlands. A purely intra-euro adjustment strategy would require too-significant wage increases in northern countries and wage declines in southern countries, which do not seem to be feasible. Before the crisis, the euro was significantly overvalued despite the close-to balanced current account position. The euro has depreciated recently, but more is needed to support the extra-euro trade of southern euro-area members. A weaker euro would also boost exports, growth, inflation and wage increases in Germany, thereby helping further intra-euro adjustment and the survival of the euro.

Options for a Euro-area fiscal capacity. Bruegel Policy Brief 2013/01, January 2013

Europe has responded to the crisis with strengthened budgetary and macroeconomic surveillance, the creation of the European Stability Mechanism, liquidity provisioning by resilient economies and the European Central Bank and a process towards a banking union. However, a monetary union requires some form of budget for fiscal stabilisation in case of shocks, and as a backstop to the banking union. This paper compares four quantitatively different schemes of fiscal stabilisation and proposes a new scheme based on GDP-indexed bonds. The options considered are: (i) A federal budget with unemployment and corporate taxes shifted to euro-area level; (ii) a support scheme based on deviations from potential output;(iii) an insurance scheme via which governments would issue bonds indexed to GDP, and (iv) a scheme in which access to jointly guaranteed borrowing is combined with gradual withdrawal of fiscal sovereignty. Our comparison is based on strong assumptions. We carry out a preliminary, limited simulation of how the debt-to-GDP ratio would have developed between 2008-14 under the four schemes for Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and an ‘average’ country.The schemes have varying implications in each case for debt sustainability

ARCOM construction management abstracts 1983-1998

The purpose of this document is to provide a single source of reference for every paper published in the journals directly related to research in Construction Management. It is indexed by author and keyword and contains the titles, authors, abstracts and keywords of every article from the following journals: • Building Research and Information (BRI) • Construction Management and Economics (CME) • Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management (ECAM) • Journal of Construction Procurement (JCP) • RICS Research Papers (RICS) The index entries give short forms of the bibliographical citations, rather than page numbers, to enable annual updates to the abstracts. Each annual update will carry cumulative indexes, so that only one index needs to be consulted.

Construction management abstracts : cumulative abstracts and indexes of journals in construction management, 1983-2000

The purpose of this document is to provide a single source of reference for every paper published in the journals directly related to research in Construction Management. It is indexed by author and keyword and contains the titles, authors, abstracts and keywords of every article from the following journals: • Building Research and Information (BRI) • Construction Management and Economics (CME) • Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management (ECAM) • Journal of Construction Procurement (JCP) • Journal of Construction Research (JCR) • Journal of Financial Management in Property and Construction (JFM) • RICS Research Papers (RICS) The index entries give short forms of the bibliographical citations, rather than page numbers, to enable annual updates to the abstracts. Each annual update will carry cumulative indexes, so that only one index needs to be consulted.

ARCOM construction management abstracts : cumulative abstracts and indexes of journals in construction management, 1999 update

The purpose of this document is to provide a single source of reference for every paper published in the journals directly related to research in Construction Management. This volume brings together articles published during 1999. It is indexed by author and keyword and contains the titles, authors, abstracts and keywords of every article from the following journals: • Building Research and Information (BRI) • Construction Management and Economics (CME) • Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management (ECAM) • Journal of Construction Procurement (JCP) • RICS Research Papers (RICS) The index entries give short forms of the bibliographical citations, rather than page numbers, to enable rapid reference to articles. A cumulative volume is available from the editor. Included in this volume is an appendix listing a wide range of journals associated with construction management research, giving details of frequency, editorial addresses and web sites, as well as whether each journal is international and/or refereed.

Roles in construction projects: analysis and terminology

Standard form contracts are typically developed through a negotiated consensus, unless they are proffered by one specific interest group. Previously published plans of work and other descriptions of the processes in construction projects tend to focus on operational issues, or they tend to be prepared from the point of view of one or other of the dominant interest groups. Legal practice in the UK permits those who draft contracts to define their terms as they choose. There are no definitive rulings from the courts that give an indication as to the detailed responsibilities of project participants. The science of terminology offers useful guidance for discovering and describing terms and their meanings in their practical context, but has never been used for defining terms for responsibilities of participants in the construction project management process. Organizational analysis enables the management task to be deconstructed into its elemental parts in order that effective organizational structures can be developed. Organizational mapping offers a useful technique for reducing text-based descriptions of project management roles and responsibilities to a comparable basis. Research was carried out by means of a desk study, detailed analysis of nine plans of work and focus groups representing all aspects of the construction industry. No published plan of work offers definitive guidance. There is an enormous amount of variety in the way that terms are used for identifying responsibilities of project participants. A catalogue of concepts and terms (a “Terminology”) has been compiled and indexed to enable those who draft contracts to choose the most appropriate titles for project participants. The purpose of this terminology is to enable the selection and justification of appropriate terms in order to help define roles. The terminology brings an unprecedented clarity to the description of roles and responsibilities in construction projects and, as such, will be helpful for anyone seeking to assemble a team and specify roles for project participants.

Prefrontal cortical-ventral striatal interactions involved in affective modulation of attentional performance: implications for corticostriatal circuit function

Anatomically segregated systems linking the frontal cortex and the striatum are involved in various aspects of cognitive, affective, and motor processing. In this study, we examined the effects of combined unilateral lesions of the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and the core subregion of the nucleus accumbens (AcbC) in opposite hemispheres (disconnection) on a continuous performance, visual attention test [five-choice serial reaction-time task (5CSRTT)]. The disconnection lesion produced a set of specific changes in performance of the 5CSRTT, resembling changes that followed bilateral AcbC lesions while, in addition, comprising a subset of the behavioral changes after bilateral mPFC lesions previously reported using the same task. Specifically, both mPFC/AcbC disconnection and bilateral AcbC lesions markedly affected aspects of response control related to affective feedback, as indexed by perseverative responding in the 5CSRTT. These effects were comparable, although not identical, to those in animals with either bilateral AcbC or mPFC/AcbC disconnection lesions. The mPFC/AcbC disconnection resulted in a behavioral profile largely distinct from that produced by disconnection of a similar circuit described previously, between the mPFC and the dorsomedial striatum, which were shown to form a functional network underlying aspects of visual attention and attention to action. This distinction provides an insight into the functional specialization of corticostriatal circuits in similar behavioral contexts.

An extension of an over-dispersion test for count data

While over-dispersion in capture–recapture studies is well known to lead to poor estimation of population size, current diagnostic tools to detect the presence of heterogeneity have not been specifically developed for capture–recapture studies. To address this, a simple and efficient method of testing for over-dispersion in zero-truncated count data is developed and evaluated. The proposed method generalizes an over-dispersion test previously suggested for un-truncated count data and may also be used for testing residual over-dispersion in zero-inflation data. Simulations suggest that the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is standard normal and that this approximation is also reasonable for small sample sizes. The method is also shown to be more efficient than an existing test for over-dispersion adapted for the capture–recapture setting. Studies with zero-truncated and zero-inflated count data are used to illustrate the test procedures.

Modelling the lava dome extruded at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, August 2005–May 2006. Part I: Dome shape and internal structure

Lava domes comprise core, carapace, and clastic talus components. They can grow endogenously by inflation of a core and/or exogenously with the extrusion of shear bounded lobes and whaleback lobes at the surface. Internal structure is paramount in determining the extent to which lava dome growth evolves stably, or conversely the propensity for collapse. The more core lava that exists within a dome, in both relative and absolute terms, the more explosive energy is available, both for large pyroclastic flows following collapse and in particular for lateral blast events following very rapid removal of lateral support to the dome. Knowledge of the location of the core lava within the dome is also relevant for hazard assessment purposes. A spreading toe, or lobe of core lava, over a talus substrate may be both relatively unstable and likely to accelerate to more violent activity during the early phases of a retrogressive collapse. Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat has been erupting since 1995 and has produced numerous lava domes that have undergone repeated collapse events. We consider one continuous dome growth period, from August 2005 to May 2006 that resulted in a dome collapse event on 20th May 2006. The collapse event lasted 3 h, removing the whole dome plus dome remnants from a previous growth period in an unusually violent and rapid collapse event. We use an axisymmetrical computational Finite Element Method model for the growth and evolution of a lava dome. Our model comprises evolving core, carapace and talus components based on axisymmetrical endogenous dome growth, which permits us to model the interface between talus and core. Despite explicitly only modelling axisymmetrical endogenous dome growth our core–talus model simulates many of the observed growth characteristics of the 2005–2006 SHV lava dome well. Further, it is possible for our simulations to replicate large-scale exogenous characteristics when a considerable volume of talus has accumulated around the lower flanks of the dome. Model results suggest that dome core can override talus within a growing dome, potentially generating a region of significant weakness and a potential locus for collapse initiation.

Linkage disequilibrium assessment via log-linear modeling of SNP haplotype frequencies

Analyses of high-density single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data, such as genetic mapping and linkage disequilibrium (LD) studies, require phase-known haplotypes to allow for the correlation between tightly linked loci. However, current SNP genotyping technology cannot determine phase, which must be inferred statistically. In this paper, we present a new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for population haplotype frequency estimation, particulary in the context of LD assessment. The novel feature of the method is the incorporation of a log-linear prior model for population haplotype frequencies. We present simulations to suggest that 1) the log-linear prior model is more appropriate than the standard coalescent process in the presence of recombination (>0.02cM between adjacent loci), and 2) there is substantial inflation in measures of LD obtained by a "two-stage" approach to the analysis by treating the "best" haplotype configuration as correct, without regard to uncertainty in the recombination process. Genet Epidemiol 25:106-114, 2003. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Comparison of small and large deformation rheological properties of wheat dough and gluten

The rheological properties of dough and gluten are important for end-use quality of flour but there is a lack of knowledge of the relationships between fundamental and empirical tests and how they relate to flour composition and gluten quality. Dough and gluten from six breadmaking wheat qualities were subjected to a range of rheological tests. Fundamental (small-deformation) rheological characterizations (dynamic oscillatory shear and creep recovery) were performed on gluten to avoid the nonlinear influence of the starch component, whereas large deformation tests were conducted on both dough and gluten. A number of variables from the various curves were considered and subjected to a principal component analysis (PCA) to get an overview of relationships between the various variables. The first component represented variability in protein quality, associated with elasticity and tenacity in large deformation (large positive loadings for resistance to extension and initial slope of dough and gluten extension curves recorded by the SMS/Kieffer dough and gluten extensibility rig, and the tenacity and strain hardening index of dough measured by the Dobraszczyk/Roberts dough inflation system), the elastic character of the hydrated gluten proteins (large positive loading for elastic modulus [G'], large negative loadings for tan delta and steady state compliance [J(e)(0)]), the presence of high molecular weight glutenin subunits (HMW-GS) 5+10 vs. 2+12, and a size distribution of glutenin polymers shifted toward the high-end range. The second principal component was associated with flour protein content. Certain rheological data were influenced by protein content in addition to protein quality (area under dough extension curves and dough inflation curves [W]). The approach made it possible to bridge the gap between fundamental rheological properties, empirical measurements of physical properties, protein composition, and size distribution. The interpretation of this study gave indications of the molecular basis for differences in breadmaking performance.

Wheat protein quality in relation to baking performance evaluated by the Chorleywood bread process and a hearth bread baking test

The relationships between wheat protein quality and baking properties of 20 flour samples were studied for two breadmaking processes; a hearth bread test and the Chorleywood Bread Process (CBP). The strain hardening index obtained from dough inflation measurements, the proportion of unextractable polymeric protein, and mixing properties were among the variables found to be good indicators of protein quality and suitable for predicting potential baking quality of wheat flours. By partial least squares regression, flour and dough test variables were able to account for 71-93% of the variation in crumb texture, form ratio and volume of hearth loaves made using optimal mixing and fixed proving times. These protein quality variables were, however, not related to the volume of loaves produced by the CBP using mixing to constant work input and proving to constant height. On the other hand, variation in crumb texture of CBP loaves (54-55%) could be explained by protein quality. The results underline that the choice of baking procedure and loaf characteristics is vital in assessing the protein quality of flours. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of predictions of baking volume using large deformation rheological properties

Three large deformation rheological tests, the Kieffer dough extensibility system, the D/R dough inflation system and the 2 g mixograph test, were carried out on doughs made from a large number of winter wheat lines and cultivars grown in Poland. These lines and cultivars represented a broad spread in baking performance in order to assess their suitability as predictors of baking volume. The parameters most closely associated with baking volume were strain hardening index, bubble failure strain, and mixograph bandwidth at 10min. Simple correlations with baking volume indicate that bubble failure strain and strain hardening index give the highest correlations, whilst the use of best subsets regression, which selects the best combination of parameters, gave increased correlations with R-2 = 0.865 for dough inflation parameters, R-2 = 0. 842 for Kieffer parameters and R-2 = 0.760 for mixograph parameters. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.