Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Spectrum of stock price behavior - NYSE case study

The desire to create a statistical or mathematical model, which would allow predicting the future changes in stock prices, was born many years ago. Economists and mathematicians are trying to solve this task by applying statistical analysis and physical laws, but there are still no satisfactory results. The main reason for this is that a stock exchange is a non-stationary, unstable and complex system, which is influenced by many factors. In this thesis the New York Stock Exchange was considered as the system to be explored. A topological analysis, basic statistical tools and singular value decomposition were conducted for understanding the behavior of the market. Two methods for normalization of initial daily closure prices by Dow Jones and S&P500 were introduced and applied for further analysis. As a result, some unexpected features were identified, such as a shape of distribution of correlation matrix, a bulk of which is shifted to the right hand side with respect to zero. Also non-ergodicity of NYSE was confirmed graphically. It was shown, that singular vectors differ from each other by a constant factor. There are for certain results no clear conclusions from this work, but it creates a good basis for the further analysis of market topology.

Hygro-elasto-plastic behavior of planar orthotropic material

The mechanical and hygroscopic properties of paper and board are factors affecting the whole lifecycle of a product, including paper/board quality, production, converting, and material and energy savings. The progress of shrinkage profiles, loose edges of web, baggy web causing wrinkling and misregistration in printing are examples of factors affecting runnability and end product quality in the drying section and converting processes, where paper or board is treated as a moving web. The structural properties and internal stresses or plastic strain differences built up during production also cause the end-product defects related to distortion of the shape of the product such as sheet or box. The objective of this work was to construct a model capable of capturing the characteristic behavior of hygroscopic orthotropic material under moisture change, during different external in-plane stretch or stress conditions. Two independent experimental models were constructed: the elasto-plastic material model and the hygroexpansivity-shrinkage model. Both describe the structural properties of the sheet with a fiber orientation probability distribution, and both are functions of the dry solids content and fiber orientation anisotropy index. The anisotropy index, introduced in this work, simplifies the procedure of determining the constitutive parameters of the material model and the hygroexpansion coefficients in different in-plane directions of the orthotropic sheet. The mathematically consistent elasto-plastic material model and the dry solids content dependent hygroexpansivity have been constructed over the entire range from wet to dry. The presented elastoplastic and hygroexpansivity-shrinkage models can be used in an analytical approach to estimate the plastic strain and shrinkage in simple one-dimensional cases. For studies of the combined and more complicated effects of hygro-elasto-plastic behavior, both models were implemented in a finite element program for a numerical solution. The finite element approach also offered possibilities for studying different structural variations of orthotropic planar material, as well as local buckling behavior and internal stress situations of the sheet or web generated by local strain differences. A comparison of the simulation examples presented in this work to results published earlier confirms that the hygro-elasto-plastic model provides at least qualitatively reasonable estimates. The application potential of the hygro-elasto-plastic model is versatile, including several phenomena and defects appearing in the drying, converting and end-use conditions of the paper or board webs and products, or in other corresponding complex planar materials.

Social condition affects hormone secretion and exploratory behavior in rats

Studies of behavior, endocrinology and physiology have described experiments in which animals housed in groups or in isolation were normally tested individually. The isolation of the animal from its group for testing is perhaps the most common situation used today in experimental procedures, i.e., there is no consideration of the acute stress which occurs when the animal is submitted to a situation different from that it is normally accustomed to, i.e., group living. In the present study, we used 90 male 120-day-old rats (Rattus norvegicus) divided into 5 groups of 18 animals, which were housed 3 per cage, in a total of 6 cages. The animals were tested individually or with their groups for exploratory behavior. Hormones were determined by radioimmunoassay using specific kits. The results showed statistically significant differences between testing conditions in terms of behavior and of adrenocorticotrophic hormone (ACTH: from 116.8 ± 15.27 to 88.77 ± 18.74 when in group and to 159.6 ± 11.53 pg/ml when isolated), corticosterone (from 561.01 ± 77.04 to 1036.47 ± 79.81 when in group and to 784.71 ± 55.88 ng/ml when isolated), luteinizing hormone (from 0.84 ± 0.09 to 0.58 ± 0.05 when in group and to 0.52 ± 0.06 ng/ml when isolated) and prolactin (from 5.18 ± 0.33 to 9.37 ± 0.96 when in group and to 10.18 ± 1.23 ng/ml when isolated) secretion, but not in terms of follicle-stimulating hormone or testosterone secretion. The most important feature observed was that in each cage there was one animal with higher ACTH levels than the other two; furthermore, the exploratory behavior of this animal was different, indicating the occurrence of almost constant higher vigilance in this animal (latency to leave the den in group: 99.17 ± 34.95 and isolated: 675.3 ± 145.3 s). The data indicate that in each group there is an animal in a peculiar situation and its behavior can be detected by ACTH determination in addition to behavioral performance.

Female novelty and the courtship behavior of male guinea pigs (Cavia porcellus)

In several rodent species, an increase or recovery of sexual behavior can be observed when sexually satiated males are placed in contact with a novel mate. In order to assess the influence of female novelty on the courtship behavior of guinea pigs (Cavia porcellus), four adult males were observed during four daily 15-min sessions while interacting with the same pregnant female (same-female sessions). A new female was presented during the fifth session (switched-female session). The duration of behavioral categories was obtained from videotape records using an observational software. From the first to the second session, all males decreased the time allocated to investigating (sniffing and licking), following, and mounting the female, and that response did not recover by the end of the same-female sessions. No similar decreasing tendencies were detected in the circling or rumba categories. A marked increase of investigating occurred in all males from the last same-female session (8.1, 11.9, 15.1 and 17.3 percent session time) to the switched-female one (16.4, 18.4, 37.1 and 28.9 percent session time, respectively). Increases in following and circling were recorded in three of four males, and full-blown recovery of mounting in one male. No consistent changes in the females' responses to males (following or attacking) were observed throughout testing. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that guinea pig males recognize individual females and that courtship responses may suffer a habituation/recovery process controlled by mate novelty.

The terrestrial Gastropoda Megalobulimus abbreviatus as a useful model for nociceptive experiments: effects of morphine and naloxone on thermal avoidance behavior

We describe the behavior of the snail Megalobulimus abbreviatus upon receiving thermal stimuli and the effects of pretreatment with morphine and naloxone on behavior after a thermal stimulus, in order to establish a useful model for nociceptive experiments. Snails submitted to non-functional (22ºC) and non-thermal hot-plate stress (30ºC) only displayed exploratory behavior. However, the animals submitted to a thermal stimulus (50ºC) displayed biphasic avoidance behavior. Latency was measured from the time the animal was placed on the hot plate to the time when the animal lifted the head-foot complex 1 cm from the substrate, indicating aversive thermal behavior. Other animals were pretreated with morphine (5, 10, 20 mg/kg) or naloxone (2.5, 5.0, 7.5 mg/kg) 15 min prior to receiving a thermal stimulus (50ºC; N = 9 in each group). The results (means ± SD) showed an extremely significant difference in response latency between the group treated with 20 mg/kg morphine (63.18 ± 14.47 s) and the other experimental groups (P < 0.001). With 2.5 mg/kg (16.26 ± 3.19 s), 5.0 mg/kg (11.53 ± 1.64 s) and 7.5 mg/kg naloxone (7.38 ± 1.6 s), there was a significant, not dose-dependent decrease in latency compared to the control (33.44 ± 8.53 s) and saline groups (29.1 ± 9.91 s). No statistically significant difference was found between the naloxone-treated groups. With naloxone plus morphine, there was a significant decrease in latency when compared to all other groups (minimum 64% in the saline group and maximum 83.2% decrease in the morphine group). These results provide evidence of the involvement of endogenous opioid peptides in the control of thermal withdrawal behavior in this snail, and reveal a stereotyped and reproducible avoidance behavior for this snail species, which could be studied in other pharmacological and neurophysiological studies.

Apoptotic mimicry: an altruistic behavior in host/Leishmania interplay

Apoptosis is the most common phenotype observed when cells die through programmed cell death. The morphologic and biochemical changes that characterize apoptotic cells depend on the activation of a diverse set of genes. Apoptosis is essential for multicellular organisms since their development and homeostasis are dependent on extensive cell renewal. In fact, there is strong evidence for the correlation between the emergence of multicellular organisms and apoptosis during evolution. On the other hand, no obvious advantages can be envisaged for unicellular organisms to carry the complex machinery required for programmed cell death. However, accumulating evidence shows that free-living and parasitic protozoa as well as yeasts display apoptotic markers. This phenomenon has been related to altruistic behavior, when a subpopulation of protozoa or yeasts dies by apoptosis, with clear benefits for the entire population. Recently, phosphatidylserine (PS) exposure and its recognition by a specific receptor (PSR) were implicated in the infectivity of amastigote forms of Leishmania, an obligatory vertebrate intramacrophagic parasite, showing for the first time that unicellular organisms use apoptotic features for the establishment and/or maintenance of infection. Here we focus on PS exposure in the outer leaflet of the plasma membrane - an early hallmark of apoptosis - and how it modulates the inflammatory activity of phagocytic cells. We also discuss the possible mechanisms by which PS exposure can define Leishmania survival inside host cells and the evolutionary implications of apoptosis at the unicellular level.

Prazosin blocks the glutamatergic effects of N-methyl-D-aspartic acid on lordosis behavior and luteinizing hormone secretion in the estrogen-primed female rat

We have observed that intracerebroventricular (icv) injection of selective N-methyl-D-aspartic acid (NMDA)-type glutamatergic receptor antagonists inhibits lordosis in ovariectomized (OVX), estrogen-primed rats receiving progesterone or luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone (LHRH). When NMDA was injected into OVX estrogen-primed rats, it induced a significant increase in lordosis. The interaction between LHRH and glutamate was previously explored by us and another groups. The noradrenergic systems have a functional role in the regulation of LHRH release. The purpose of the present study was to explore the interaction between glutamatergic and noradrenergic transmission. The action of prazosin, an alpha1- and alpha2b-noradrenergic antagonist, was studied here by injecting it icv (1.75 and 3.5 µg/6 µL) prior to NMDA administration (1 µg/2 µL) in OVX estrogen-primed Sprague-Dawley rats (240-270 g). Rats manually restrained were injected over a period of 2 min, and tested 1.5 h later. The enhancing effect induced by NMDA on the lordosis/mount ratio at high doses (67.06 ± 3.28, N = 28) when compared to saline controls (6 and 2 µL, 16.59 ± 3.20, N = 27) was abolished by prazosin administration (17.04 ± 5.52, N = 17, and 9.33 ± 3.21, N = 20, P < 0.001 for both doses). Plasma LH levels decreased significantly only with the higher dose of prazosin (1.99 ± 0.24 ng/mL, N = 18, compared to saline-NMDA effect, 5.96 ± 2.01 ng/mL, N = 13, P < 0.05). Behavioral effects seem to be more sensitive to the alpha-blockade than hormonal effects. These findings strongly suggest that the facilitatory effects of NMDA on both lordosis and LH secretion in this model are mediated by alpha-noradrenergic transmission.

Gender-related pathways for behavior problems in the offspring of alcoholic fathers

The objective of the present study was to examine gender differences in the influence of paternal alcoholism on children's social-emotional development and to determine whether paternal alcoholism is associated with a greater number of externalizing symptoms in the male offspring. From the Mannheim Study of Risk Children, an ongoing longitudinal study of a high-risk population, the developmental data of 219 children [193 (95 boys and 98 girls) of non-alcoholic fathers, non-COAs, and 26 (14 boys, 12 girls) of alcoholic fathers, COAs] were analyzed from birth to the age of 11 years. Paternal alcoholism was defined according to the ICD-10 categories of alcohol dependence and harmful use. Socio-demographic data, cognitive development, number and severity of behavior problems, and gender-related differences in the rates of externalizing and internalizing symptoms were assessed using standardized instruments (IQ tests, Child Behavior Checklist questionnaire and diagnostic interviews). The general linear model analysis revealed a significant overall effect of paternal alcoholism on the number of child psychiatric problems (F = 21.872, d.f. = 1.217, P < 0.001). Beginning at age 2, significantly higher numbers of externalizing symptoms were observed among COAs. In female COAs, a pattern similar to that of the male COAs emerged, with the predominance of delinquent and aggressive behavior. Unlike male COAs, females showed an increase of internalizing symptoms up to age 11 years. Of these, somatic complaints revealed the strongest discriminating effect in 11-year-old females. Children of alcoholic fathers are at high risk for psychopathology. Gender-related differences seem to exist and may contribute to different phenotypes during development from early childhood to adolescence.

Hypoxic-ischemic injury decreases anxiety-like behavior in rats when associated with loss of tyrosine-hydroxylase immunoreactive neurons of the substantia nigra

Neonatal Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided into normal control, mild hypoxia-ischemia (HI), and severe HI groups (N = 10 in each group at each time) on postnatal day 7 (P7) to study the effect of mild and severe HI on anxiety-like behavior and the expression of tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) in the substantia nigra (SN). The mild and severe HI groups were exposed to hypoxia (8% O2/92% N2) for 90 and 150 min, respectively. The elevated plus-maze (EPM) test was performed to assess anxiety-like behavior by measuring time spent in the open arms (OAT) and OAT%, and immunohistochemistry was used to determine the expression of TH in the SN at P14, P21, and P28. OAT and OAT% in the EPM were significantly increased in both the mild (1.88-, 1.99-, and 2.04-fold, and 1.94-, 1.51-, and 1.46-fold) and severe HI groups (1.69-, 1.68-, and 1.87-fold, and 1.83-, 1.43-, and 1.39-fold, respectively; P < 0.05). The percent of TH-positive cells occupying the SN area was significantly and similarly decreased in both the mild (17.7, 40.2, and 47.2%) and severe HI groups (16.3, 32.2, and 43.8%, respectively; P < 0.05). The decrease in the number of TH-positive cells in the SN and the level of protein expression were closely associated (Pearson correlation analysis: r = 0.991, P = 0.000 in the mild HI group and r = 0.974, P = 0.000 in the severe HI group) with the impaired anxiety-like behaviors. We conclude that neonatal HI results in decreased anxiety-like behavior during the juvenile period of Sprague-Dawley rats, which is associated with the decreased activity of TH in the SN. The impairment of anxiety and the expression of TH are not likely to be dependent on the severity of HI.

Contrasting effects of nitric oxide and corticotropin- releasing factor within the dorsal periaqueductal gray on defensive behavior and nociception in mice

The anxiogenic and antinociceptive effects produced by glutamate N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor activation within the dorsal periaqueductal gray (dPAG) matter have been related to nitric oxide (NO) production, since injection of NO synthase (NOS) inhibitors reverses these effects. dPAG corticotropin-releasing factor receptor (CRFr) activation also induces anxiety-like behavior and antinociception, which, in turn, are selectively blocked by local infusion of the CRF type 1 receptor (CRFr1) antagonist, NBI 27914 [5-chloro-4-(N-(cyclopropyl)methyl-N-propylamino)-2-methyl-6-(2,4,6-trichlorophenyl)aminopyridine]. Here, we determined whether i) the blockade of the dPAG by CRFr1 attenuates the anxiogenic/antinociceptive effects induced by local infusion of the NO donor, NOC-9 [6-(2-hydroxy-1-methyl-2-nitrosohydrazino)-N-methyl-1-hexanamine], and ii) the anxiogenic/antinociceptive effects induced by intra-dPAG CRF are prevented by local infusion of Nω-propyl-L-arginine (NPLA), a neuronal NOS inhibitor, in mice. Male Swiss mice (12 weeks old, 25-35 g, N = 8-14/group) were stereotaxically implanted with a 7-mm cannula aimed at the dPAG. Intra-dPAG NOC-9 (75 nmol) produced defensive-like behavior (jumping and running) and antinociception (assessed by the formalin test). Both effects were reversed by prior local infusion of NBI 27914 (2 nmol). Conversely, intra-dPAG NPLA (0.4 nmol) did not modify the anxiogenic/antinociceptive effects of CRF (150 pmol). These results suggest that CRFr1 plays an important role in the defensive behavior and antinociception produced by NO within the dPAG. In contrast, the anxiogenic and antinociceptive effects produced by intra-dPAG CRF are not related to NO synthesis in this limbic midbrain structure.

Panic-like defensive behavior but not fear-induced antinociception is differently organized by dorsomedial and posterior hypothalamic nuclei of Rattus norvegicus (Rodentia, Muridae)

The hypothalamus is a forebrain structure critically involved in the organization of defensive responses to aversive stimuli. Gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA)ergic dysfunction in dorsomedial and posterior hypothalamic nuclei is implicated in the origin of panic-like defensive behavior, as well as in pain modulation. The present study was conducted to test the difference between these two hypothalamic nuclei regarding defensive and antinociceptive mechanisms. Thus, the GABA A antagonist bicuculline (40 ng/0.2 µL) or saline (0.9% NaCl) was microinjected into the dorsomedial or posterior hypothalamus in independent groups. Innate fear-induced responses characterized by defensive attention, defensive immobility and elaborate escape behavior were evoked by hypothalamic blockade of GABA A receptors. Fear-induced defensive behavior organized by the posterior hypothalamus was more intense than that organized by dorsomedial hypothalamic nuclei. Escape behavior elicited by GABA A receptor blockade in both the dorsomedial and posterior hypothalamus was followed by an increase in nociceptive threshold. Interestingly, there was no difference in the intensity or in the duration of fear-induced antinociception shown by each hypothalamic division presently investigated. The present study showed that GABAergic dysfunction in nuclei of both the dorsomedial and posterior hypothalamus elicit panic attack-like defensive responses followed by fear-induced antinociception, although the innate fear-induced behavior originates differently in the posterior hypothalamus in comparison to the activity of medial hypothalamic subdivisions.

On the relationships between ultrasonic calling and anxiety-related behavior in rats

In the present review, the phenomenon of ultrasonic vocalization in rats will be outlined, including the three classes of vocalizations, namely 40-kHz calls of pups, and 22- and 50-kHz calls of juvenile and adult rats, their general relevance to behavioral neuroscience, and their special relevance to research on anxiety, fear, and defense mechanisms. Here, the emphasis will be placed on 40- and 22-kHz calls, since they are typical for various situations with aversive properties. Among other topics, we will discuss whether such behavioral signals can index a certain affective state, and how these signals can be used in social neuroscience, especially with respect to communication. Furthermore, we will address the phenomenon of inter-individual variability in ultrasonic calling and what we currently know about the mechanisms, which may determine such variability. Finally, we will address the current knowledge on the neural and pharmacological mechanisms underlying 22-kHz ultrasonic vocalization, which show a substantial overlap with mechanisms known from other research on fear and anxiety, such as those involving the periaqueductal gray or the amygdala.

Group cognitive behavior therapy for bipolar disorder can improve the quality of life

Bipolar disorder (BD) can have an impact on psychosocial functioning and quality of life (QoL). Several studies have shown that structured psychotherapy in conjunction with pharmacotherapy may modify the course of some disorders; however, few studies have investigated the results of group cognitive behavior therapy (G-CBT) for BD. Our objective was to evaluate the effectiveness of 14 sessions of G-CBT for BD patients, comparing this intervention plus pharmacotherapy to treatment as usual (TAU; only pharmacotherapy). Forty-one patients with BD I and II participated in this study and were randomly allocated to each group (G-CBT: N = 27; TAU: N = 14). Thirty-seven participants completed the treatment (women: N = 66.67%; mean age = 41.5 years). QoL and mood symptoms were assessed in all participants. Scores changed significantly by the end of treatment in favor of the G-CBT group. The G-CBT group presented significantly better QoL in seven of the eight sub-items assessed with the Medical Outcomes Survey SF-36 scale. At the end of treatment, the G-CBT group exhibited lower scores for mania (not statistically significant) and depression (statistically significant) as well as a reduction in the frequency and duration of mood episodes (P < 0.01). The group variable was significant for the reduction of depression scores over time. This clinical change may explain the improvement in six of the eight subscales of QoL (P < 0.05). The G-CBT group showed better QoL in absolute values in all aspects and significant improvements in nearly all subscales. These results were not observed in the TAU control group.

Behavior of the P1.HTR mastocytoma cell line implanted in the chorioallantoic membrane of chick embryos

The P1.HTR cell line includes highly transfectable cells derived from P815 mastocytoma cells originating from mouse breast tissue. Despite its widespread use in immunogenic studies, no data are available about the behavior of P1.HTR cells in the chick embryo chorioallantoic membrane model. The objective of the present investigation was to study the effects of P1.HTR cells implanted on the chorioallantoic membrane of chick embryos. We inoculated P1.HTR cells into the previously prepared chick embryo chorioallantoic membrane and observed the early and late effects of these cells by stereomicroscopy, histochemistry and immunohistochemistry. A highly angiotropic and angiogenic effect occurred early after inoculation and a tumorigenic potential with the development of mastocytoma keeping well mast cells immunophenotype was detected later during the development. The P1.HTR mastocytoma cell line is a good tool for the development of the chick embryo chorioallantoic membrane mastocytoma model and also for other studies concerning the involvement of blood vessels. The chick embryo chorioallantoic membrane model of mastocytoma retains the mast cell immunophenotype under experimental conditions and could be used as an experimental tool for in vivo preliminary testing of antitumor and antivascular drugs.

Low-dose thioperamide injected into the cerebellar vermis of mice immediately after exposure to the elevated plus-maze impairs their avoidance behavior on re-exposure to the apparatus

The present study investigated the effect of thioperamide (THIO), an H3 histaminergic receptor antagonist, microinjected into the cerebellar vermis on emotional memory consolidation in male Swiss albino mice re-exposed to the elevated plus-maze (EPM). We implanted a guide cannula into the cerebellar vermis using stereotactic surgery. On the third day after surgery, we performed behavioral tests for two consecutive days. On the first day (exposure), the mice (n=10/group) were exposed to the EPM and received THIO (0.06, 0.3, or 1.5 ng/0.1 µL) immediately after the end of the session. Twenty-four hours later, the mice were re-exposed to the EPM under the same experimental conditions, but without drug injection. A reduction in the exploration of the open arms upon re-exposure to the EPM (percentage of number of entries and time spent in open arms) compared with the initial exposure was used as an indicator of learning and memory. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by the Duncan post hoc test was used to analyze the data. Upon re-exposure, exploratory activity in the open arms was reduced in the control group, and with the two highest THIO doses: 0.3 and 1.5 ng/0.1 µL. No reduction was seen with the lowest THIO dose (0.06 ng/0.1 µL), indicating inhibition of the consolidation of emotional memory. None of the doses interfered with the animals' locomotor activity. We conclude that THIO at the lowest dose (0.06 ng/0.1 µL) microinjected into the cerebellum impaired emotional memory consolidation in mice.