Reservoir performance under uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change

Relatively few studies have addressed water management and adaptation measures in the face of changing water balances due to climate change. The current work studies climate change impact on a multipurpose reservoir performance and derives adaptive policies for possible futurescenarios. The method developed in this work is illustrated with a case study of Hirakud reservoir on the Mahanadi river in Orissa, India,which is a multipurpose reservoir serving flood control, irrigation and power generation. Climate change effects on annual hydropower generation and four performance indices (reliability with respect to three reservoir functions, viz. hydropower, irrigation and flood control, resiliency, vulnerability and deficit ratio with respect to hydropower) are studied. Outputs from three general circulation models (GCMs) for three scenarios each are downscaled to monsoon streamflow in the Mahanadi river for two future time slices, 2045-65 and 2075-95. Increased irrigation demands, rule curves dictated by increased need for flood storage and downscaled projections of streamflow from the ensemble of GCMs and scenarios are used for projecting future hydrologic scenarios. It is seen that hydropower generation and reliability with respect to hydropower and irrigation are likely to show a decrease in future in most scenarios, whereas the deficit ratio and vulnerability are likely to increase as a result of climate change if the standard operating policy (SOP) using current rule curves for flood protection is employed. An optimal monthly operating policy is then derived using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) as an adaptive policy for mitigating impacts of climate change on reservoir operation. The objective of this policy is to maximize reliabilities with respect to multiple reservoir functions of hydropower, irrigation and flood control. In variations to this adaptive policy, increasingly more weightage is given to the purpose of maximizing reliability with respect to hydropower for two extreme scenarios. It is seen that by marginally sacrificing reliability with respect to irrigation and flood control, hydropower reliability and generation can be increased for future scenarios. This suggests that reservoir rules for flood control may have to be revised in basins where climate change projects an increasing probability of droughts. However, it is also seen that power generation is unable to be restored to current levels, due in part to the large projected increases in irrigation demand. This suggests that future water balance deficits may limit the success of adaptive policy options. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lightcurve inversion for asteroid spins and shapes

Knowledge of the physical properties of asteroids is crucial in many branches of solar-system research. Knowledge of the spin states and shapes is needed, e.g., for accurate orbit determination and to study the history and evolution of the asteroids. In my thesis, I present new methods for using photometric lightcurves of asteroids in the determination of their spin states and shapes. The convex inversion method makes use of a general polyhedron shape model and provides us at best with an unambiguous spin solution and a convex shape solution that reproduces the main features of the original shape. Deriving information about the non-convex shape features is, in principle, also possible, but usually requires a priori information about the object. Alternatively, a distribution of non-convex solutions, describing the scale of the non-convexities, is also possible to be obtained. Due to insufficient number of absolute observations and inaccurately defined asteroid phase curves, the $c/b$-ratio, i.e., the flatness of the shape model is often somewhat ill-defined. However, especially in the case of elongated objects, the flatness seems to be quite well constrained, even in the case when only relative lightcurves are available. The results prove that it is, contrary to the earlier misbelief, possible to derive shape information from the lightcurve data if a sufficiently wide range of observing geometries is covered by the observations. Along with the more accurate shape models, also the rotational states, i.e., spin vectors and rotation periods, are defined with improved accuracy. The shape solutions obtained so far reveal a population of irregular objects whose most descriptive shape characteristics, however, can be expressed with only a few parameters. Preliminary statistical analyses for the shapes suggests that there are correlations between shape and other physical properties, such as the size, rotation period and taxonomic type of the asteroids. More shape data of, especially, the smallest and largest asteroids, as well as the fast and slow rotators is called for in order to be able to study the statistics more thoroughly.

Vector Evaluated Particle Swarm Optimization (VEPSO) of Supersonic Ejector for Hydrogen Fuel Cells

Fuel cells are emerging as alternate green power producers for both large power production and for use in automobiles. Hydrogen is seen as the best option as a fuel; however, hydrogen fuel cells require recirculation of unspent hydrogen. A supersonic ejector is an apt device for recirculation in the operating regimes of a hydrogen fuel cell. Optimal ejectors have to be designed to achieve best performances. The use of the vector evaluated particle swarm optimization technique to optimize supersonic ejectors with a focus on its application for hydrogen recirculation in fuel cells is presented here. Two parameters, compression ratio and efficiency, have been identified as the objective functions to be optimized. Their relation to operating and design parameters of ejector is obtained by control volume based analysis using a constant area mixing approximation. The independent parameters considered are the area ratio and the exit Mach number of the nozzle. The optimization is carried out at a particularentrainment ratio and results in a set of nondominated solutions, the Pareto front. A set of such curves can be used for choosing the optimal design parameters of the ejector.

Conformal Field Theory Methods for Variants of Schramm-Loewner Evolutions

This thesis consists of an introduction, four research articles and an appendix. The thesis studies relations between two different approaches to continuum limit of models of two dimensional statistical mechanics at criticality. The approach of conformal field theory (CFT) could be thought of as the algebraic classification of some basic objects in these models. It has been succesfully used by physicists since 1980's. The other approach, Schramm-Loewner evolutions (SLEs), is a recently introduced set of mathematical methods to study random curves or interfaces occurring in the continuum limit of the models. The first and second included articles argue on basis of statistical mechanics what would be a plausible relation between SLEs and conformal field theory. The first article studies multiple SLEs, several random curves simultaneously in a domain. The proposed definition is compatible with a natural commutation requirement suggested by Dubédat. The curves of multiple SLE may form different topological configurations, ``pure geometries''. We conjecture a relation between the topological configurations and CFT concepts of conformal blocks and operator product expansions. Example applications of multiple SLEs include crossing probabilities for percolation and Ising model. The second article studies SLE variants that represent models with boundary conditions implemented by primary fields. The most well known of these, SLE(kappa, rho), is shown to be simple in terms of the Coulomb gas formalism of CFT. In the third article the space of local martingales for variants of SLE is shown to carry a representation of Virasoro algebra. Finding this structure is guided by the relation of SLEs and CFTs in general, but the result is established in a straightforward fashion. This article, too, emphasizes multiple SLEs and proposes a possible way of treating pure geometries in terms of Coulomb gas. The fourth article states results of applications of the Virasoro structure to the open questions of SLE reversibility and duality. Proofs of the stated results are provided in the appendix. The objective is an indirect computation of certain polynomial expected values. Provided that these expected values exist, in generic cases they are shown to possess the desired properties, thus giving support for both reversibility and duality.

Appendiceal sonography in children: A retrospective analysis as a platform for potential implementation of diagnostic categories

- Background Sonography is an important diagnostic tool in children with suspected appendicitis. Reported accuracy and appendiceal visualisation rates vary significantly, as does the management of equivocal ultrasound findings. The aim of this study was to audit appendiceal sonography at a tertiary children's hospital, and provide baseline data for a future prospective study. - Summary of work Records of children who underwent ultrasound studies for possible appendicitis between January 2008 and December 2010 were reviewed. Variables included patient demographics, sonographic appendix characteristics, and secondary signs. Descriptive statistics and analysis using ANOVA, Mann-Whitney U test, and ROC curves were performed. Mater Human Research Ethic Committee approval was granted. - Summary of results There were 457 eligible children. Using a dichotomous diagnostic model (including equivocal results), sensitivity was 89.6%, specificity 91.6%, and diagnostic yield of 40.7%. ROC curve analysis of a 6mm diameter cut-off was 0.88 AUC (95% CI 0.80 to 0.95). - Discussion and conclusions Sonography is an accurate test for acute appendicitis in children, with a high sensitivity and negative predictive value. A diameter of 6mm as an absolute cut-off in a binary model can lead to false findings. Results were compared with available literature. Recent publications propose categorising diameter1 and integrating secondary signs2 to improve accuracy and provide more meaningful results to clinicians. This study will be a benchmark for future studies with multiple diagnostic categorisation.

Effect of static deflection on natural frequency of non-linear spring mass system by direct linearization method

An exact expression for the frequency of a non-linear cubic spring mass system is obtained considering the effect of static deflection. An alternative expression for the approximate frequency is also obtained by the direct linearization procedure; it is shown that this is very accurate as compared with the exact method. This approximate frequency equation is used to explain a “dual behaviour” of the frequency amplitude curves.

Spectrophotometric and potentiometric investigations of copper (II)-ethanolamine complexes - Part II. Monoethanolamine (Analysis of mixed hydroxy complexes with polarographic evidence)

Potentiometric, spectrophotometric and polarographic evidence has been presented for the formation of mixed hydroxy complexes in coppermonoethanolamine system. A method has been developed for the analysis of Bjerrum formation curves taken in presence of 0·1, 0·2, 0·5 and 1·0 M monoethanolammonium ion with respect to hydroxy complexes. The formation of CuAOH+, CuA2OH+ and CuA3OH+ is shown and the corresponding stability constants are calculated at different concentrations of MEA ion. Curves showing the distribution of pure and hydroxy complexes at various pA values in solutions containing different concentrations of MEA ion have also been given.

Step function response of non-linear spring mass systems in the presence of Coulomb damping

The transient response of non-linear spring mass systems with Coulomb damping, when subjected to a step function is investigated. For a restricted class of non-linear spring characteristics, exact expressions are developed for (i) the first peak of the response curves, and (ii) the time taken to reach it. A simple, yet accurate linearization procedure is developed for obtaining the approximate time required to reach the first peak, when the spring characteristic is a general function of the displacement. The results are presented graphically in non-dimensional form.

Evaluation of noise attenuation due to exhaust mufflers

This paper deals with the evaluation of noise attenuation due to exhaust mufflers fitted to the conventional piston engines. A discussion of the existing methods for the purpose, reveals the undesirability of the assumptions and simplifications implied therein. An expression for the attenuation of a general muffler has been derived. The classical theory of "sound transmission in pipes" [1] has been exploited to evaluate this "expression" for mufflers of different geometry. The quantitative effects of atmospheric impedance, and the engine exhaust impedance on the attenuation curves of a specific muffler have been found for an automotive engine. Finally, attenuation curves of a number of mufflers have been drawn and compared to suggest certain design criteria.

Spectrophotometric and potentiometric investigations of copper (II)-ethanolamine complexes - Part I. Monoethanolamine

Spectrophotometric and potentiometric investigations have been carried out on copper-monoethanolamine complexes. Job plots at 920, 760 and 620 mµ have indicated the formation of CuA++, CuA2/++ and CuA3 ++. The$$\bar n - pA$$ curves have been obtained by a slight modification of the method of corresponding solutions and by pH measurements. The$$\bar n$$ vs. pA curves obtained at different metal concentrations coincide indicating the formation of mononuclear complexes. Experiments conducted with 0·1. 0·2, 0·5 and 1·0 M monoethanolammonium ion indicate the formation of mononuclear hydroxy complexes above pH 6. The nature of E m vs pA curves is closely analogous to that of$$\bar n$$ vs. pA curves. Absorption spectra taken at pH 9·8 with different amounts of monoethanolamine has given evidence for the formation of (CuA3OH·A)+.$$\bar n - pA$$ curves have been analyzed and the values ofβ 1, 1,β 1, 2 andβ 1, 3 have been obtained. Curves showing the distribution of complexes and the absorption curves of the individual complexes (CuA++, CuA2/++, and CuA3/++) have been calculated.

A class of one-dimensional steady-state flows in radiation-gas-dynamics

The study of steady-state flows in radiation-gas-dynamics, when radiation pressure is negligible in comparison with gas pressure, can be reduced to the study of a single first-order ordinary differential equation in particle velocity and radiation pressure. The class of steady flows, determined by the fact that the velocities in two uniform states are real, i.e. the Rankine-Hugoniot points are real, has been discussed in detail in a previous paper by one of us, when the Mach number M of the flow in one of the uniform states (at x=+∞) is greater than one and the flow direction is in the negative direction of the x-axis. In this paper we have discussed the case when M is less than or equal to one and the flow direction is still in the negative direction of the x-axis. We have drawn the various phase planes and the integral curves in each phase plane give various steady flows. We have also discussed the appearance of discontinuities in these flows.

Vibration of simply-supported trapezoidal plates I. Symmetric trapezoids

A detailed investigation of the natural frequencies and mode shapes of simply supported symmetric trapezoidal plates is undertaken in this paper. For numerical calculations, the relationship that exists between the eigenvalue problem of a polygonal simply supported plate and the eigenvalue problem of polygonal membrane of the same shape is utilized with advantage. The deflection surface is expressed in terms of a Fourier sine series in transformed coordinates and the Galerkin method is used. Results are presented in the form of tables and graphs. Several features like the crossing of frequency curves and the metamorphosis of some of the nodal patterns are observed. By a suitable interpretation of the modes of those symmetric trapezoidal plates which have the median as the nodal line, the results for some of the modes of unsymmetrical trapezoidal plates are also deduced.

Vitamin E may affect the life expectancy of men, depending on dietary vitamin C intake and smoking

Background: Antioxidants might protect against oxidative stress, which has been suggested as a cause of aging. Methods: The ATBC Study recruited males aged 50-69 years who smoked at least 5 cigarettes per day at the baseline. The current study was restricted to participants who were followed up past the age of 65. Deaths were identified in the National Death Registry (1445 deaths). We constructed Kaplan-Meier survival curves for all participants, and for four subgroups defined by dietary vitamin C intake and level of smoking. We also constructed Cox regression models allowing a different vitamin E effect for low and high age ranges. Results: Among all 10,837 participants, vitamin E had no effect on those who were 65 to 70 years old, but reduced mortality by 24% when participants were 71 or older. Among 2284 men with dietary vitamin C intakes above the median who smoked less than a pack of cigarettes per day, vitamin E extended life-span by two years at the upper limit of the follow-up age span. In this subgroup, the survival curves of vitamin E and no-vitamin E participants diverged at 71 years. In the other three subgroups covering 80% of the participants, vitamin E did not affect mortality. Conclusions: This is the first study to strongly indicate that protection against oxidative stress can increase the life expectancy of some initially healthy population groups. Nevertheless, the lack of effect in 80% of this male cohort shows that vitamin E is no panacea for extending life expectancy.

Spectrophotometric and potentiometric investigations of copper (II)-Ethanolamine complexes - Part III. diethanolamine (Gaussian analysis of electronic spectra in mono and diethanolamine systems)

Spectrophotometric and potentiometric investigations have been carried out on copper-diethanolamine system. Job plots at 900, 900 and 580 mμ have indicated the formation of CuD++, CuD2++ and CuD3++. The n- pA curves obtained indicate the formation of CuD++, CuD2++, CuD3++, CuDOH+, CuD2OH+ and CuD3OH+. The n- pA curves have been analyzed to obtain the stability constants of these complexes. Absorption curves of pure complexes have been computed by a graphical method. Gaussian analysis of the absorption curves of pure and hydroxy complexes show the presence of a second band, indicating that the structure is that of a distorted octahedron.

Juvenile diversity of tree species in Theobroma cacao L. agroforestry and primary forest – Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

This thesis studies the tree species’ juvenile diversity in cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) based agroforestry and in primary forest in a natural conservation forest environment of Lore Lindu National Park, Sulawesi, Indonesia. Species’ adult composition in Lore Lindu National Park is relatively well studied, less is known about tree species’ diversity in seedling communities particularly in frequently disturbed cacao agroforestry field environment. Cacao production forms a potentially serious thread for maintaining the conservation areas pristine and forested in Sulawesi. The impacts of cacao production on natural environment are directly linked to the diversity and abundance of shade tree usage. The study aims at comparing differences between cacao agroforestry and natural forest in the surrounding area in their species composition in seedling and sapling size categories. The study was carried out in two parts. Biodiversity inventory of seedlings and saplings was combined with social survey with farmer interviews. Aim of the survey was to gain knowledge of the cacao fields, and farmers’ observations and choices regarding tree species associated with cacao. Data was collected in summer 2008. The assessment of the impact of environmental factors of solar radiation, weeding frequency, cacao tree planting density, distance to forest and distance to main park road, and type of habitat on seedling and sapling compositions was done with Non-metric Multidimensional Scaling (NMS). Outlier analysis was used to assess distorting variables for NMS, and Multi-Response Permutation Procedures (MRPP) analysis to differentiate the impact of categorical variables. Sampling success was estimated with rarefaction curves and jackknife estimate of species richness. In the inventory 135 species of trees and shrubs were found. Only some agroforestry related species were dominating. The most species rich were sapling communities in forest habitat. NMS was showing generally low linear correlation between variation of species composition and environmental variables. Solar radiation was having most significance as explaining variable. The most clearly separated in ordination were cacao and forest habitats. The results of seedling and sapling inventory were only partly coinciding with farmers’ knowledge of the tree species occurring on their fields. More research with frequent assessment of seedling cohorts is needed due to natural variability of cohorts and high mortality rate of seedlings.