Preliminary leaf area index estimates from airborne small footprint full-waveform LiDAR data

This study has compared preliminary estimates of effective leaf area index (LAI) derived from fish-eye lens photographs to those estimated from airborne full-waveform small-footprint LiDAR data for a forest dataset in Australia. The full-waveform data was decomposed and optimized using a trust-region-reflective algorithm to extract denser point clouds. LAI LiDAR estimates were derived in two ways (1) from the probability of discrete pulses reaching the ground without being intercepted (point method) and (2) from raw waveform canopy height profile processing adapted to small-footprint laser altimetry (waveform method) accounting for reflectance ratio between vegetation and ground. The best results, that matched hemispherical photography estimates, were achieved for the waveform method with a study area-adjusted reflectance ratio of 0.4 (RMSE of 0.15 and 0.03 at plot and site level, respectively). The point method generally overestimated, whereas the waveform method with an arbitrary reflectance ratio of 0.5 underestimated the fish-eye lens LAI estimates.

On the microphysical effects of observed cloud edge charging

Liquid layer clouds are abundant globally. Lacking strong convection, they do not become electrified by the usual thunderstorm mechanisms of collisional electrification between hydrometeors of different phases. Instead, the background global circuit current flow in fair weather is largely unaffected by the layer cloud’s presence, and, if the layer cloud is extensive horizontally, the vertical fair weather conduction current passes through the cloud. A consequence of the vertical current flow is that, at the cloud-air boundary where there is a conductivity transition and droplets form or evaporate, droplet charging occurs. Charge can affect both droplet evaporation and droplet-droplet collisions. Using new radiosonde instrumentation, the charge observed at layer cloud edges is evaluated for both these microphysical droplet processes. This shows that the charging is more likely to affect collision processes than activation, for small droplets. Enhancing the collection efficiency of small droplets modifies their evolution and propagates through the size distribution to shorten the autoconversion timescale to rain drops, and the cloud radiative properties. Because the conduction current density is influenced by both external (e.g. solar modulation of high energy particles) and internal (e.g. ENSO) factors, current flow leading to layer cloud edge charging provides a possible route for expressing solar influences on the climate system and a teleconnection mechanism for communicating internal climate variability.

Detection of recent changes in climate using meteorological data from south-eastern Bangladesh

Analysis of meteorological records from four stations (Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar, Rangamati, Sitakunda) in south-eastern Bangladesh show coherent changes in climate over the past three decades. Mean maximum daily temperatures have increased between 1980 and 2013 by ca. 0.4 to 0.6°C per decade, with changes of comparable magnitude in individual seasons. The increase in mean maximum daily temperature is associated with decreased cloud cover and wind speed, particularly in the pre- and post-monsoon seasons. During these two seasons, the correlation between changes in maximum temperature and clouds is between -0.5 and -0.7; the correlation with wind speed is weaker although similar values are obtained in some seasons. Changes in mean daily minimum (and hence mean) temperature differ between the northern and southern part of the basin: northern stations show a decrease in mean daily minimum temperature during the post-monsoon season of between 0.2 and 0.5°C per decade while southern stations show an increase of ca. 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. In contrast to the significant changes in temperature, there is no trend in mean or total precipitation at any station. However, there is a significant increase in the number of rain days at the northern sites during the monsoon season, with an increase per decade of 3 days in Sitakunda and 7 days at Rangamati. These climate changes could have a significant impact on the hydrology of the Halda Basin, which supplies water to Chittagong and is the major pisciculture centre in Bangladesh.

A coupled cloud physics–radiation parameterization of the bulk optical properties of cirrus and its impact on the Met Office unified model global atmosphere 5.0 configuration

A new coupled cloud physics–radiation parameterization of the bulk optical properties of ice clouds is presented. The parameterization is consistent with assumptions in the cloud physics scheme regarding particle size distributions (PSDs) and mass–dimensional relationships. The parameterization is based on a weighted ice crystal habit mixture model, and its bulk optical properties are parameterized as simple functions of wavelength and ice water content (IWC). This approach directly couples IWC to the bulk optical properties, negating the need for diagnosed variables, such as the ice crystal effective dimension. The parameterization is implemented into the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 5.0 (GA5) configuration. The GA5 configuration is used to simulate the annual 20-yr shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), as well as the temperature structure of the atmosphere, under various microphysical assumptions. The coupled parameterization is directly compared against the current operational radiation parameterization, while maintaining the same cloud physics assumptions. In this experiment, the impacts of the two parameterizations on the SW and LW radiative effects at TOA are also investigated and compared against observations. The 20-yr simulations are compared against the latest observations of the atmospheric temperature and radiative fluxes at TOA. The comparisons demonstrate that the choice of PSD and the assumed ice crystal shape distribution are as important as each other. Moreover, the consistent radiation parameterization removes a long-standing tropical troposphere cold temperature bias but slightly warms the southern midlatitudes by about 0.5 K.

A regime-dependent parametrization of subgrid-scale cloud water content variability

The subgrid-scale spatial variability in cloud water content can be described by a parameter f called the fractional standard deviation. This is equal to the standard deviation of the cloud water content divided by the mean. This parameter is an input to schemes that calculate the impact of subgrid-scale cloud inhomogeneity on gridbox-mean radiative fluxes and microphysical process rates. A new regime-dependent parametrization of the spatial variability of cloud water content is derived from CloudSat observations of ice clouds. In addition to the dependencies on horizontal and vertical resolution and cloud fraction included in previous parametrizations, the new parametrization includes an explicit dependence on cloud type. The new parametrization is then implemented in the Global Atmosphere 6 (GA6) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model and used to model the effects of subgrid variability of both ice and liquid water content on radiative fluxes and autoconversion and accretion rates in three 20-year atmosphere-only climate simulations. These simulations show the impact of the new regime-dependent parametrization on diagnostic radiation calculations, interactive radiation calculations and both interactive radiation calculations and in a new warm microphysics scheme. The control simulation uses a globally constant f value of 0.75 to model the effect of cloud water content variability on radiative fluxes. The use of the new regime-dependent parametrization in the model results in a global mean which is higher than the control's fixed value and a global distribution of f which is closer to CloudSat observations. When the new regime-dependent parametrization is used in radiative transfer calculations only, the magnitudes of short-wave and long-wave top of atmosphere cloud radiative forcing are reduced, increasing the existing global mean biases in the control. When also applied in a new warm microphysics scheme, the short-wave global mean bias is reduced.

Reducing noise associated with the Monte Carlo Independent Column Approximation for weather forecasting models

The Monte Carlo Independent Column Approximation (McICA) is a flexible method for representing subgrid-scale cloud inhomogeneity in radiative transfer schemes. It does, however, introduce conditional random errors but these have been shown to have little effect on climate simulations, where spatial and temporal scales of interest are large enough for effects of noise to be averaged out. This article considers the effect of McICA noise on a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, where the time and spatial scales of interest are much closer to those at which the errors manifest themselves; this, as we show, means that noise is more significant. We suggest methods for efficiently reducing the magnitude of McICA noise and test these methods in a global NWP version of the UK Met Office Unified Model (MetUM). The resultant errors are put into context by comparison with errors due to the widely used assumption of maximum-random-overlap of plane-parallel homogeneous cloud. For a simple implementation of the McICA scheme, forecasts of near-surface temperature are found to be worse than those obtained using the plane-parallel, maximum-random-overlap representation of clouds. However, by applying the methods suggested in this article, we can reduce noise enough to give forecasts of near-surface temperature that are an improvement on the plane-parallel maximum-random-overlap forecasts. We conclude that the McICA scheme can be used to improve the representation of clouds in NWP models, with the provision that the associated noise is sufficiently small.

Convective updraught evaluation in high-resolution NWP simulations using single-Doppler radar measurements

This study presents an evaluation of the size and strength of convective updraughts in high-resolution simulations by the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM). Updraught velocities have been estimated from range–height indicator (RHI) Doppler velocity measurements using the Chilbolton advanced meteorological radar, as part of the Dynamical and Microphysical Evolution of Convective Storms (DYMECS) project. Based on mass continuity and the vertical integration of the observed radial convergence, vertical velocities tend to be underestimated for convective clouds due to the undetected cross-radial convergence. Velocity fields from the UM at a resolution corresponding to the radar observations are used to scale such estimates to mitigate the inherent biases. The analysis of more than 100 observed and simulated storms indicates that the horizontal scale of updraughts in simulations tend to decrease with grid length; the 200 m grid length agreed most closely with the observations. Typical updraught mass fluxes in the 500 m grid length simulations were up to an order of magnitude greater than observed, and greater still in the 1.5 km grid length simulations. The effect of increasing the mixing length in the sub-grid turbulence scheme depends on the grid length. For the 1.5 km simulations, updraughts were weakened though their horizontal scale remained largely unchanged. Progressively more so for the sub-kilometre grid lengths, updraughts were broadened and intensified; horizontal scale was now determined by the mixing length rather than the grid length. In general, simulated updraughts were found to weaken too quickly with height. The findings were supported by the analysis of the widths of reflectivity patterns in both the simulations and observations.

Advances in understanding mineral dust and boundary layer processes over the Sahara from Fennec aircraft observations

The Fennec climate program aims to improve understanding of the Saharan climate system through a synergy of observations and modelling. We present a description of the Fennec airborne observations during 2011 and 2012 over the remote Sahara (Mauritania and Mali) and the advances in the understanding of mineral dust and boundary layer processes they have provided. Aircraft instrumentation aboard the UK FAAM BAe146 and French SAFIRE Falcon 20 is described, with specific focus on instrumentation specially developed and relevant to Saharan meteorology and dust. Flight locations, aims and associated meteorology are described. Examples and applications of aircraft measurements from the Fennec flights are presented, highlighting new scientific results delivered using a synergy of different instruments and aircraft. These include: (1) the first airborne measurement of dust particles sized up to 300 microns and associated dust fluxes in the Saharan atmospheric boundary layer (SABL), (2) dust uplift from the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet before becoming visible in SEVIRI satellite imagery, (3) vertical profiles of the unique vertical structure of turbulent fluxes in the SABL, (4) in-situ observations of processes in SABL clouds showing dust acting as CCN and IN at −15 °C, (5) dual-aircraft observations of the SABL dynamics, thermodynamics and composition in the Saharan heat low region (SHL), (6) airborne observations of a dust storm associated with a cold-pool (haboob) issued from deep convection over the Atlas, (7) the first airborne chemical composition measurements of dust in the SHL region with differing composition, sources (determined using Lagrangian backward trajectory calculations) and absorption properties between 2011 and 2012, (8) coincident ozone and dust surface area measurements suggest coarser particles provide a route for ozone depletion, (9) discrepancies between airborne coarse mode size distributions and AERONET sunphotometer retrievals under light dust loadings. These results provide insights into boundary layer and dust processes in the SHL region – a region of substantial global climatic importance.

The representation of the West-African Monsoon vertical cloud structure in the Met Office Unified Model: an evaluation with CloudSat

Weather and climate model simulations of the West African Monsoon (WAM) have generally poor representation of the rainfall distribution and monsoon circulation because key processes, such as clouds and convection, are poorly characterized. The vertical distribution of cloud and precipitation during the WAM are evaluated in Met Office Unified Model simulations against CloudSat observations. Simulations were run at 40-km and 12-km horizontal grid length using a convection parameterization scheme and at 12-km, 4-km, and 1.5-km grid length with the convection scheme effectively switched off, to study the impact of model resolution and convection parameterization scheme on the organisation of tropical convection. Radar reflectivity is forward-modelled from the model cloud fields using the CloudSat simulator to present a like-with-like comparison with the CloudSat radar observations. The representation of cloud and precipitation at 12-km horizontal grid length improves dramatically when the convection parameterization is switched off, primarily because of a reduction in daytime (moist) convection. Further improvement is obtained when reducing model grid length to 4 km or 1.5 km, especially in the representation of thin anvil and mid-level cloud, but three issues remain in all model configurations. Firstly, all simulations underestimate the fraction of anvils with cloud top height above 12 km, which can be attributed to too low ice water contents in the model compared to satellite retrievals. Secondly, the model consistently detrains mid-level cloud too close to the freezing level, compared to higher altitudes in CloudSat observations. Finally, there is too much low-level cloud cover in all simulations and this bias was not improved when adjusting the rainfall parameters in the microphysics scheme. To improve model simulations of the WAM, more detailed and in-situ observations of the dynamics and microphysics targeting these non-precipitating cloud types are required.

Microphysical properties of cold frontal rainbands

Observations have been obtained within an intense (precipitation rates > 50 mm h−1 ) narrow cold-frontal rainband (NCFR) embedded within a broader region of stratiform precipitation. In situ data were obtained from an aircraft which flew near a steerable dual-polarisation Doppler radar. The observations were obtained to characterise the microphysical properties of cold frontal clouds, with an emphasis on ice and precipitation formation and development. Primary ice nucleation near cloud top (−55◦ C) appeared to be enhanced by convective features. However, ice multiplication led to the largest ice particle number concentrations being observed at relatively high temperatures (> −10◦ C). The multiplication process (most likely rime splintering) occurs when stratiform precipitation interacts with supercooled water generated in the NCFR. Graupel was notably absent in the data obtained. Ice multiplication processes are known to have a strong impact in glaciating isolated convective clouds, but have rarely been studied within larger organised convective systems such as NCFRs. Secondary ice particles will impact on precipitation formation and cloud dynamics due to their relatively small size and high number density. Further modelling studies are required to quantify the effects of rime splintering on precipitation and dynamics in frontal rainbands. Available parametrizations used to diagnose the particle size distributions do not account for the influence of ice multiplication. This deficiency in parametrizations is likely to be important in some cases for modelling the evolution of cloud systems and the precipitation formation. Ice multiplication has significant impact on artefact removal from in situ particle imaging probes.

G band atmospheric radars: new frontiers in cloud physics

Clouds and associated precipitation are the largest source of uncertainty in current weather and future climate simulations. Observations of the microphysical, dynamical and radiative processes that act at cloud scales are needed to improve our understanding of clouds. The rapid expansion of ground-based super-sites and the availability of continuous profiling and scanning multi-frequency radar observations at 35 and 94 GHz have significantly improved our ability to probe the internal structure of clouds in high temporal-spatial resolution, and to retrieve quantitative cloud and precipitation properties. However, there are still gaps in our ability to probe clouds due to large uncertainties in the retrievals. The present work discusses the potential of G band (frequency between 110 and 300 GHz) Doppler radars in combination with lower frequencies to further improve the retrievals of microphysical properties. Our results show that, thanks to a larger dynamic range in dual-wavelength reflectivity, dual-wavelength attenuation and dual-wavelength Doppler velocity (with respect to a Rayleigh reference), the inclusion of frequencies in the G band can significantly improve current profiling capabilities in three key areas: boundary layer clouds, cirrus and mid-level ice clouds, and precipitating snow.

Ice supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate

Ice supersaturation (ISS) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is important for the formation of cirrus clouds and long-lived contrails. Cold ISS (CISS) regions (taken here to be ice-supersaturated regions with temperature below 233 K) are most relevant for contrail formation.We analyse projected changes to the 250 hPa distribution and frequency of CISS regions over the 21st century using data from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 simulations for a selection of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. The models show a global-mean, annual-mean decrease in CISS frequency by about one-third, from 11 to 7% by the end of the 21st century, relative to the present-day period 1979–2005. Changes are analysed in further detail for three subregions where air traffic is already high and increasing (Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes) or expected to increase (tropics and Northern Hemisphere polar regions). The largest change is seen in the tropics, where a reduction of around 9 percentage points in CISS frequency by the end of the century is driven by the strong warming of the upper troposphere. In the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes the multi-model-mean change is an increase in CISS frequency of 1 percentage point; however the sign of the change is dependent not only on the model but also on latitude and season. In the Northern Hemisphere polar regions there is an increase in CISS frequency of 5 percentage points in the annual mean. These results suggest that, over the 21st century, climate change may have large impacts on the potential for contrail formation; actual changes to contrail cover will also depend on changes to the volume of air traffic, aircraft technology and flight routing.

Observational constraints on atmospheric and oceanic cross-equatorial heat transports: revisiting the precipitation asymmetry problem in climate models

Satellite based top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiation budget observations are combined with mass corrected vertically integrated atmospheric energy divergence and tendency from reanalysis to infer the regional distribution of the TOA, atmospheric and surface energy budget terms over the globe. Hemispheric contrasts in the energy budget terms are used to determine the radiative and combined sensible and latent heat contributions to the cross-equatorial heat transports in the atmosphere (AHT_EQ) and ocean (OHT_EQ). The contrast in net atmospheric radiation implies an AHT_EQ from the northern hemisphere (NH) to the southern hemisphere (SH) (0.75 PW), while the hemispheric difference in sensible and latent heat implies an AHT_EQ in the opposite direction (0.51 PW), resulting in a net NH to SH AHT_EQ (0.24 PW). At the surface, the hemispheric contrast in the radiative component (0.95 PW) dominates, implying a 0.44 PW SH to NH OHT_EQ. Coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models with excessive net downward surface radiation and surface-to-atmosphere sensible and latent heat transport in the SH relative to the NH exhibit anomalous northward AHT_EQ and overestimate SH tropical precipitation. The hemispheric bias in net surface radiative flux is due to too much longwave surface radiative cooling in the NH tropics in both clear and all-sky conditions and excessive shortwave surface radiation in the SH subtropics and extratropics due to an underestimation in reflection by clouds.

JOYCE: Jülich Observatory for cloud evolution

The Jülich Observatory for Cloud Evolution (JOYCE), located at Forschungszentrum Jülich in the most western part of Germany, is a recently established platform for cloud research. The main objective of JOYCE is to provide observations, which improve our understanding of the cloudy boundary layer in a midlatitude environment. Continuous and temporally highly resolved measurements that are specifically suited to characterize the diurnal cycle of water vapor, stability, and turbulence in the lower troposphere are performed with a special focus on atmosphere–surface interaction. In addition, instruments are set up to measure the micro- and macrophysical properties of clouds in detail and how they interact with different boundary layer processes and the large-scale synoptic situation. For this, JOYCE is equipped with an array of state-of-the-art active and passive remote sensing and in situ instruments, which are briefly described in this scientific overview. As an example, a 24-h time series of the evolution of a typical cumulus cloud-topped boundary layer is analyzed with respect to stability, turbulence, and cloud properties. Additionally, we present longer-term statistics, which can be used to elucidate the diurnal cycle of water vapor, drizzle formation through autoconversion, and warm versus cold rain precipitation formation. Both case studies and long-term observations are important for improving the representation of clouds in climate and numerical weather prediction models.

The solsticial pause on Mars: 2 modelling and investigation of causes

The martian solsticial pause, presented in a companion paper (Lewis et al., this issue), was investigated further through a series of model runs using the UK version of the LMD/UK Mars Global Climate Model. It was found that the pause could not be adequately reproduced if radiatively active water ice clouds were omitted from the model. When clouds were used, along with a realistic time-dependent dust opacity distribution, a substantial minimum in near-surface transient eddy activity formed around solstice in both hemispheres. The net effect of the clouds in the model is, by altering the thermal structure of the atmosphere, to decrease the vertical shear of the westerly jet near the surface around solstice, and thus reduce baroclinic growth rates. A similar effect was seen under conditions of large dust loading, implying that northern midlatitude eddy activity will tend to become suppressed after a period of intense flushing storm formation around the northern cap edge. Suppression of baroclinic eddy generation by the barotropic component of the flow and via diabatic eddy dissipation were also investigated as possible mechanisms leading to the formation of the solsticial pause but were found not to make major contributions. Zonal variations in topography were found to be important, as their presence results in weakened transient eddies around winter solstice in both hemispheres, through modification of the near-surface flow. The zonal topographic asymmetry appears to be the primary reason for the weakness of eddy activity in the southern hemisphere relative to the northern hemisphere, and the ultimate cause of the solsticial pause in both hemispheres. The meridional topographic gradient was found to exert a much weaker influence on near-surface transient eddies.