Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto

Coal-fired power plants may enjoy a significant advantage relative to gas plants in terms of cheaper fuel cost. Still, this advantage may erode or even turn into disadvantage depending on CO2 emission allowance price. This price will presumably rise in both the Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012) and the first post-Kyoto years. Thus, in a carbon-constrained environment, coal plants face financial risks arising in their profit margins, which in turn hinge on their so-called "clean dark spread". These risks are further reinforced when the price of the output electricity is determined by natural gas-fired plants' marginal costs, which differ from coal plants' costs. We aim to assess the risks in coal plants' margins. We adopt parameter values estimated from empirical data. These in turn are derived from natural gas and electricity markets alongside the EU ETS market where emission allowances are traded. Monte Carlo simulation allows to compute the expected value and risk profile of coal-based electricity generation. We focus on the clean dark spread in both time periods under different future scenarios in the allowance market. Specifically, bottom 5% and 10% percentiles are derived. According to our results, certain future paths of the allowance price may impose significant risks on the clean dark spread obtained by coal plants.

Does Immigration Raise Natives’ Income? National and Regional Evidence from Spain

How immigration affects the labor market of the host country is a topic of major concern for many immigrant-receiving nations. Spain is no exception following the rapid increase in immigrant flows experienced over the past decade. We assess the impact of immigration on Spanish natives’ income by estimating the net immigration surplus accruing at the national level and at high immigrant-receiving regions while taking into account the imperfect substitutability of immigrant and native labor. Specifically, using information on the occupational densities of immigrants and natives of different skill levels, we develop a mapping of immigrant-to-native self-reported skills that reveals the combination of natives across skills that would be equivalent to an immigrant of a given self-reported skill level, which we use to account for any differences between immigrant self-reported skill levels and their effective skills according to the Spanish labor market. We find that the immigrant surplus amounts to 0.04 percent of GDP at the national level and it is even higher for some of the main immigrant-receiving regions, such as Cataluña, Valencia, Madrid, and Murcia.

The Impact of Firm Level Contracting on Wage Levels and Inequality: Spain 1995-2002

This paper provides microeconomic evidence on the variation over time of the firm-specific wage premium in Spain from 1995 to 2002, and its impact on wage inequality. We make use of two waves of a detailed linked employer-employee data set. In addition, a new data set with financial information on firms is used for 2002 to control as flexibly as possible for differences in the performance of firms (aggregated at industry level). To our knowledge, there is no microeconomic evidence on the dynamics of the firm-specific wage premium for Spain or for any other country with a similar institutional setting. Our results suggest that there is a clear tendency towards centralization in the collective bargaining process in Spain over this seven-year period, that the firm-level contract wage premium undergoes a substantial decrease, particularly for women, and finally that the "centralization" observed in the collective bargaining process has resulted in a slight decrease in wage inequality.

Income Taxation and Growth in an OLG Economy: Does Aggregate Uncertainty Play any Role?

We analyze the effects of capital income taxation on long-run growth in a stochastic, two-period overlapping generations economy. Endogenous growth is driven by a positive externality of physical capital in the production sector that makes firms exhibit an aggregate technology in equilibrium. We distinguish between capital income and labor income, and between attitudes towards risk and intertemporal substitution of consumption. We show necessary and sufficient conditions such that i) increments in the capital income taxation lead to higher equilibrium growth rates, and ii) the effect of changes in the capital income tax rate on the equilibrium growth may be of opposite signs in stochastic and in deterministic economies. Such a sign reversal is shown to be more likely depending on i) how the intertemporal elasticity of substitution compares to one, and ii) the size of second- period labor supply. Numerical simulations show that for reasonable values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, a sign reversal shows up only for implausibly high values of the second- period’s labor supply. The conclusion is that deterministic OLG economies are a good approximation of the effect of taxes on the equilibrium growth rate as in Smith (1996).

Assessing the sustainability of brackish water aquaculture systems in the Philippines. Working Paper 4: Aquaculture and poverty - a case study of five coastal communities in the Philippines

After reviewing the rather thin literature on the subject, we investigate the relationship between aquaculture and poverty based on a case study of five coastal communities in the Philippines. The analysis relies on a data set collated through a questionnaire survey of 148 households randomly selected in these five communities. The methodological approach combines the qualitative analysis of how this relationship is perceived by the surveyed households and a quantitative analysis of the levels and determinants of poverty and inequality in these communities. There is overwhelming evidence that aquaculture benefits the poor in important ways and that it is perceived very positively by the poor and non-poor alike. In particular, the poor derive a relatively larger share of their income from aquaculture than the rich, and a lowering of the poverty line only reinforces this result. Further, a Gini decomposition exercise shows unambiguously that aquaculture represents an inequality-reducing source of income. We believe that the pro-poor character of brackish water aquaculture in the study areas is explained by the fact that the sector provides employment to a large number of unskilled workers in communities characterized by large surpluses of labour. Our results also suggest that the analysis of the relationship between aquaculture and poverty should not focus exclusively on the socio-economic status of the farm operator/owner, as has often been the case in the past. [PDF contains 51 pages]

Improved fisheries technologies and approaches for their dissemination: a case study of Niger State

Technology generation and dissemination are important components of rural transformation programmes. Nigerian fisheries sub-sector is still hampered by low productivity (especially in aquaculture) and low output (capture fisheries and post-harvest technologies). Research institutions and the Universities have made efforts in developing improved technologies to find solution to these problems, yet the level of adoption of the technologies remain low. This is due to a combination of various factors among which are faulty agricultural policies; institutional framework and unfavourable socio-economic environment. Niger State plays an important role in production in Nigeria and host the only research institute with the mandate in inland fisheries. It is important therefore to know the effectiveness of various extension approaches used in disseminating the technologies developed and their impact on adopters. Forty fishers were randomly selected in Shiroro L.G.A. of the Niger State and interviewed. The study probed into their socio-economic characteristics, traditional practices, extent of awareness and adoption for fisheries technologies and the effectiveness and impact of various approaches used by the extension organizations to disseminate the technologies. The results show that the economically active age group of the fishers was in the range of 20-50 years (87.5%). Males (95%) dominate the fisher population. 47.5% of the respondents have average household size of 6-10 and 57.5% were below primary school in educational attainment. Only 57.5% belonged to cooperative societies, while 90.0% of the fishers have no access to credit other than personal finance. Majority of fish-farmers (60%) operate at homestead level with pond size less than 50 square meter, stock under polyculture fishing methods are at subsistence level, while 67.5% of processors use mud-oven to cure, by smoking, freshly caught fish. Disseminated aquaculture technologies have low level of awareness (5-20%) and adoption (2.5-22.5%). For capture fisheries and post-harvest technologies awareness levels of 47.5-72.5% and adoption levels of 27.5-50.0% were recorded. Method demonstration (87.5%), result demonstration (75.0%) and field days (47.5%) are the major approaches used by the ADP. Respondents were of the opinion that method demonstration (65%), result demonstration (57.5%) and field day (30.0%) are effective. 62.5% of respondents had enhanced income due impact of extension activities

Identification of non fishing income opportunities around Kainji Lake

The findings are presented of a study carried out in the Kainji Lake region of Nigeria in order to identify alternative income opportunities for the fisherfolk, so as to increase their acceptance of fishery management measures and also to reduce the harmful short-term economic effects that such management options can have. A description is given of the main non-fishing income earning activities in the Kainji Lake area and an assessment is made of the economic viability and expected acceptance of the identified income earning opportunities. (PDF contains 84 pages)

Alternative income in Kainji Lake area: introduction of improved cocks to fisherfolk

Details are given of a study conducted in the framework of the Kainji Lake Fisheries Promotion Project to boost income from alternative sources. The project identified 'improved poultry keeping' as suitable for introduction around the Kainji Lake area. In the long term, the programme will assist increasing especially the income of female members of fishing families, since poultry is kept in the villages mainly by women. (PDF contains 35 pages)

An assessment of the implementation of alternative income sources for fishermen's wives as a strategy for poverty alleviation under the Kainji Lake Fisheries Promotion Project

Kainji Lake Basin is the first man-made Lake in Nigeria with a surface area of 1270km super(2). Since its creation in 1968 research activities were carried out on biological, socio-economic, hydrological and limnological characteristics of the water body. Extension activities concentrated on the dissemination of proven technologies developed by the Research scientists. Most of the socio-economic and extension activities focused on fishermen as women were regarded as homemakers and their activities concentrated in the home. The situation is even compounded by the Islamic injunction of seclusion. The intervention of NGKLFPP in 1993 has introduced many changes into the research and extension activities directed at the beneficiaries of the project because women were considered as a major stakeholder around the Lake area. The intervention of the project in Kainji Lake in the introduction of alternative income generating activities to women is enumerated in this paper. The intervention has improved the living standard of women and to a certain level reduced poverty among women in the area

Investment opportunity in improved fish smoker (IFS) as food security for artisanal women fish processors (AWOFPS) in Nigeria: a case study of Kainji Lake area

The Improved Fish Smoker (IFS) was designed and constructed by NIFFR in collaboration with GTZ in 1997. After the on-station trials, five fishing villages with pronounced fishing activities were selected for the demonstration. The IFS and the traditional Smoking Kiln were compared in one of the fishing villages using Gross Margin analysis (GM) and productivity index to determine the profitability and productivity of the two kilns. It was found that the average income of IFS users at fully capacity was N5, 555.50 per day in a year N1.3 million would be realized. Conversely, the average income of the users of Traditional Smoking Kiln (TSK) was N649.00 per day and about N152, 150.50 would be realized in a year. From this estimate, it is evident that the IFS are more profitable than the TSK. Productivity index of the two kilns also revealed that the productivity of IFS is higher than the TSK. Thus, using the IFS would enhance the income of artisanal women Fish Processors (AWOFPS) and ensure food security for the household

Evaluating the role of energy efficiency labels in the prices of household appliances: the case of refrigerators

4 p.

Trends in Income and Price Elasticities of Transport Demand (1850-2010)

40 p.

The use of “Bonus-Malus” schemes for promoting energy-efficient household appliances: a case study for Spain

32 p.

Financial Futures Markets and Their Impact on the Real Economy in Middle and Low Income Countries

This project analyses the influence of the futures market on middle and low income countries. In it, I attempt to show that investments made by large investment funds in this market, as well as by certain pension plans, bring major consequences whose effects are more evident in less developed countries. The cornerstones of the work are as follows; to attempt to see the existing relationship between the commodity futures market and its underlying assets; analysing products such as wheat, rice and corn in-depth, because these are the most basic foodstuffs at a global level; to determine how an increase in trading in these markets can affect the lives of people in the poorest countries; to analyse investor concern regarding the consequences that their investments may have. Throughout the project we will see how large speculators use production forecasting models to determine the shortage of a commodity in order to take a position in the futures market to profit from it. In addition we will see how an increase in trading in this market causes an increase in the price of the underlying asset in the spot market. As for investor concern, I can say it is negligible, but the idea of running pension plans or investment funds that follow some social criteria has been welcomed by those interviewed, which makes me think that different legislation is possible. This legislation will only come into existence if it is demanded by the people. A fact that now becomes complicated because without a minimum financial basis, they cannot even know how the large investment funds trade with hunger in the world. The day when most people understand how large speculators profit from famine will be the day to put pressure on governments to begin to put limits on speculation. This makes financial awareness necessary in order to achieve a curb in excessive speculation.

O orçamento público federal e a garantia de prioridade absoluta de crianças e adolescentes nas políticas públicas

Essa pesquisa objetiva verificar a garantia de prioridade absoluta de crianças e adolescentes nas políticas públicas do governo federal. Para tanto, resgata o processo de criação dos novos direitos de crianças e adolescentes, que se origina na Assembléia Nacional Constituinte (ANC) 1987-1988, perpassa a discussão da comunidade internacional para a criação da Convenção sobre os Direitos da Criança (CDC) e resulta em uma legislação nacional, o Estatuto da Criança e do Adolescente (ECA), sob a égide da Doutrina da Proteção Integral. Essa legislação reflete os novos direitos de crianças e adolescentes brasileiros como cidadãos e cidadãs, titulares de direitos especiais por sua condição peculiar de desenvolvimento e compõe os critérios de garantia, defesa e promoção de seus direitos humanos. Esse estudo também traz informações sobre a desigualdade social brasileira para inferir que o investimento em políticas públicas para infância e adolescência é um dos mecanismos para promover desenvolvimento sustentável, construir bases para uma sociedade mais justa e igualitária e que, quando aliadas a políticas de transferências de renda, oportunizam condições sólidas para reduzir o grau de desigualdade social, com efetiva melhora da qualidade de vida da população. A prioridade absoluta foi estimada a partir de um método de apuração do Orçamento Criança e Adolescente (OCA) que filtra as políticas orçamentárias voltadas ao público infanto-adolescente, nos termos do ECA, por critérios de exclusividade e direcionamento. Os resultados indicam que, apesar das melhoras recentes em indicadores socioeconômicos e na qualidade de vida da população brasileira, ainda falta um longo caminho para o respeito ao princípio da prioridade absoluta de crianças e adolescentes nas políticas públicas do governo federal, pois os recursos públicos da União estão à mercê do pagamento dos juros, encargos e amortizações da dívida pública. Com isso, as políticas sociais ficam mantidas em segundo plano, e sua arrecadação tem caráter regressivo, baseada em tributos indiretos, no que o financiamento das políticas públicas é feito pela população mais pobre, majoritariamente, justamente a que mais demanda as políticas públicas sociais.