890 resultados para Hierarchical data, Multilevel models, Motor vehicle crashes, Transportation safety, Rural intersections


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"House Resolution 658 directed the Office of the Auditor General (OAG) to audit the Department of Central Management Services' (CMS) operation of the fleet of passenger cars used by State executive agencies. The Resolution called for the audit to address the total number of cars; number of take-home cars; necessity of take-home vehicles; costs of vehicles in Fiscal Year 2009; and the adequacy of CMS' system to record their use and maintenance and to check for official use, including whether it is possible to implement a system to track vehicles for business only."

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Mode of access: Internet.

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Mode of access: Internet.

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Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

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Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

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Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

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Many studies on birds focus on the collection of data through an experimental design, suitable for investigation in a classical analysis of variance (ANOVA) framework. Although many findings are confirmed by one or more experts, expert information is rarely used in conjunction with the survey data to enhance the explanatory and predictive power of the model. We explore this neglected aspect of ecological modelling through a study on Australian woodland birds, focusing on the potential impact of different intensities of commercial cattle grazing on bird density in woodland habitat. We examine a number of Bayesian hierarchical random effects models, which cater for overdispersion and a high frequency of zeros in the data using WinBUGS and explore the variation between and within different grazing regimes and species. The impact and value of expert information is investigated through the inclusion of priors that reflect the experience of 20 experts in the field of bird responses to disturbance. Results indicate that expert information moderates the survey data, especially in situations where there are little or no data. When experts agreed, credible intervals for predictions were tightened considerably. When experts failed to agree, results were similar to those evaluated in the absence of expert information. Overall, we found that without expert opinion our knowledge was quite weak. The fact that the survey data is quite consistent, in general, with expert opinion shows that we do know something about birds and grazing and we could learn a lot faster if we used this approach more in ecology, where data are scarce. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Anterior knee pain (AKP) is common and has been argued to be related to poor patellofemoral joint control due to impaired coordination of the vasti muscles. However, there are conflicting data. Changes in motor unit firing may provide more definitive evidence. Synchronization of motor unit action potentials (MUAPs) in vastus medialis obliquus (VMO) and vastus lateralis (VL) may contribute to coordination in patellofemoral joint control. We hypothesized that synchronization may be reduced in AKP. Recordings of single MUAPs were made from VMO and multiunit electromyograph (EMG) recordings were made from VL. Averages of VL EMG recordings were triggered from the single MUAPs in VMO. Motor units in VL firing in association with the VMO motor units would appear as a peak in the VL EMG average. Data were compared to previous normative data. The proportion of trials in which a peak was identified in the triggered averages of VL EMG was reduced in people with AKP (38%) compared to controls (90%). Notably, although 80% of subjects had values less than controls, 20% were within normal limits. These results provide new evidence that motor unit synchronization is modified in the presence of pain and provide evidence for motor control dysfunction in AKP. Perspective: This study shows that coordination of motor units between the medial and lateral vasti muscles in people with anterior knee pain is reduced compared to people without knee pain. It confirms that motor control dysfunction is a factor in this condition and has implications for selection of rehabilitation strategies. (c) 2005 by the American Pain Society.

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Loading of the femoral neck (FN) is dominated by bending and compressive stresses. We hypothesize that adaptation of the FN to physical activity would be manifested in the cross-sectional area (CSA) and section modulus (Z) of bone, indices of axial and bending strength, respectively. We investigated the influence of physical activity on bone strength during adolescence using 7 years of longitudinal data from 109 boys and 121 girls from the Saskatchewan Paediatric Bone and Mineral Accrual Study (PBMAS). Physical activity data (PAC-Q physical activity inventory) and anthropometric measurements were taken every 6 months and DXA bone scans were measured annually (Hologic QDR2000, array mode). We applied hip structural analysis to derive strength and geometric indices of the femoral neck using DXA scans. To control for maturation, we determined a biological maturity age defined as years from age at peak height velocity (APHV). To account for the repeated measures within individual nature of longitudinal data, multilevel random effects regression analyses were used to analyze the data. When biological maturity age and body size (height and weight) were controlled, in both boys and girls, physical activity was a significant positive independent predictor of CSA and Z of the narrow region of the femoral neck (P < 0.05). There was no independent effect of physical activity on the subperiosteal width of the femoral neck. When leg length and leg lean mass were introduced into the random effects models to control for size and muscle mass of the leg (instead of height and weight), all significant effects of physical activity disappeared. Even among adolescents engaged in normal levels of physical activity, the statistically significant relationship between physical activity and indices of bone strength demonstrate that modifiable lifestyle factors like exercise play an important role in optimizing bone strength during the growing years. Physical activity differences were explained by the interdependence between activity and lean mass considerations. Physical activity is important for optimal development of bone strength. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Background: The structure of proteins may change as a result of the inherent flexibility of some protein regions. We develop and explore probabilistic machine learning methods for predicting a continuum secondary structure, i.e. assigning probabilities to the conformational states of a residue. We train our methods using data derived from high-quality NMR models. Results: Several probabilistic models not only successfully estimate the continuum secondary structure, but also provide a categorical output on par with models directly trained on categorical data. Importantly, models trained on the continuum secondary structure are also better than their categorical counterparts at identifying the conformational state for structurally ambivalent residues. Conclusion: Cascaded probabilistic neural networks trained on the continuum secondary structure exhibit better accuracy in structurally ambivalent regions of proteins, while sustaining an overall classification accuracy on par with standard, categorical prediction methods.

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This study aimed to determine whether media items about suicide were associated with differential increases in actual suicides. Data were available on 4635 suicide-related items appearing in Australian newspapers and on radio and television news and current affairs shows between March 2000 and February 2001. These data were combined with national data on completed suicides occurring during the same period, by a process that involved identifying the date and geographical reach of the media items and determining the number of suicides occurring in the same location in selected weeks pre- and post-item. Regression analyses were conducted to determine whether the likelihood of an increase in post-item suicides could be explained by particular item characteristics. We found that 39% of media items were followed by an increase in mate suicides, and 31% by an increase in female suicides. Media items were more likely to be associated with increases in both male and female suicides if they occurred in the context of multiple other reports on suicide (versus occurring in isolation), if they were broadcast on television (versus other media), and if they were about completed suicide (versus attempted suicide or suicidal ideation). Different item content appeared to be influential for males and females, with an increase in male suicides being associated with items about an individual's experience of suicide and opinion pieces, and an increase in female suicides being associated with items about mass- or murder-suicide. Item prominence and quality were not differentially associated with increases in male or female suicides. Further research on this topic is required, but in the meantime there is a need to remain vigilant about how suicide news is reported. Mental health professionals and suicide experts should collaborate with media professionals to try to balance 'public interest' against the risk of harm. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

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The purpose of the present study is to test the case linkage principles of behavioural consistency and behavioural distinctiveness using serial vehicle theft data. Data from 386 solved vehicle thefts committed by 193 offenders were analysed using Jaccard's, regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic analyses to determine whether objectively observable aspects of crime scene behaviour could be used to distinguish crimes committed by the same offender from those committed by different offenders. The findings indicate that spatial behaviour, specifically the distance between theft locations and between dump locations, is a highly consistent and distinctive aspect of vehicle theft behaviour; thus, intercrime and interdump distance represent the most useful aspects of vehicle theft for the purpose of case linkage analysis. The findings have theoretical and practical implications for understanding of criminal behaviour and for the development of decision-support tools to assist police investigation and apprehension of serial vehicle theft offenders.

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In recent years there has been a great effort to combine the technologies and techniques of GIS and process models. This project examines the issues of linking a standard current generation 2½d GIS with several existing model codes. The focus for the project has been the Shropshire Groundwater Scheme, which is being developed to augment flow in the River Severn during drought periods by pumping water from the Shropshire Aquifer. Previous authors have demonstrated that under certain circumstances pumping could reduce the soil moisture available for crops. This project follows earlier work at Aston in which the effects of drawdown were delineated and quantified through the development of a software package that implemented a technique which brought together the significant spatially varying parameters. This technique is repeated here, but using a standard GIS called GRASS. The GIS proved adequate for the task and the added functionality provided by the general purpose GIS - the data capture, manipulation and visualisation facilities - were of great benefit. The bulk of the project is concerned with examining the issues of the linkage of GIS and environmental process models. To this end a groundwater model (Modflow) and a soil moisture model (SWMS2D) were linked to the GIS and a crop model was implemented within the GIS. A loose-linked approach was adopted and secondary and surrogate data were used wherever possible. The implications of which relate to; justification of a loose-linked versus a closely integrated approach; how, technically, to achieve the linkage; how to reconcile the different data models used by the GIS and the process models; control of the movement of data between models of environmental subsystems, to model the total system; the advantages and disadvantages of using a current generation GIS as a medium for linking environmental process models; generation of input data, including the use of geostatistic, stochastic simulation, remote sensing, regression equations and mapped data; issues of accuracy, uncertainty and simply providing adequate data for the complex models; how such a modelling system fits into an organisational framework.

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Objective: Although several studies have demonstrated a relationship between staff engagement and health and wellbeing, none has analysed the association with presenteeism in the National Health Service (NHS) context. Our aim is to determine whether there is a relationship between presenteeism and staff engagement. Methods: A hierarchical logistic multilevel modelling of cross-sectional data from the NHS staff survey (2009) was conducted. We controlled for a range of demographic and socioeconomic background variables, including ethnic group, gender, age and occupational group. The sample was 156,951 respondents across all 390 English NHS trusts, each providing a random sample of employees. Engagement was measured using three facets: motivation, advocacy and involvement, which were also used in a composite score. Results: Therewas a low-to-moderate negative correlation between presenteeismand staff engagement: odds ratio 0.42 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.42-0.43) for overall staff engagement and 0.53 (95% CI 0.52-0.54) for staff advocacy of the trust; 0.53 (95% CI 0.52-0.54) for motivation and 0.50 (95% CI 0.49-0.51) for involvement. Conclusions: Putting pressure on health-care staff to come to work when unwell is associated with poorer staff engagement with their jobs. © The Royal Society of Medicine Press Ltd 2011.