998 resultados para Great Moderation


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Theoretical models of host-parasite coevolution assume a partially genetic basis to the variability in susceptibility to parasites among hosts, for instance as a result of genetic variation in immune function. However, few empirical data exist for free-living vertebrate hosts to support this presumption. In a cross-fostering experiment with nestling great tits, by comparing nestlings of the same origin we investigated (i) the variance in host resistance against an ectoparasite due to a common genetic origin, (ii) the effect of ectoparasite infestation on cell-mediated immunity and (iii) the variance in cell-mediated immunity due to a common genetic origin. Ectoparasitic hen fleas can impair the growth of nestling great tits and nestling growth was therefore taken as a measure of host susceptibility. A common origin did not account for a significant part of the variation in host susceptibility to fleas. There was no significant overall effect of fleas on nestling growth or cell-mediated immunity, as assessed by a cutaneous hypersensitivity response. A common rearing environment explained a significant part of the variation in cell-mediated immunity among nestlings, mainly through its effect on nestling body mass. The variation in cell-mediated immunity was also related to a common origin. However, the origin-related variation in body mass did not account for the origin-related differences in cell-mediated immunity. The results of the present study thus suggest heritable variation in cell-mediated immunity among nestling great tits. [References: 49]

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Lucas and colleagues recently proposed a model based on fracture and deformation concepts to describe how mammalian tooth enamel may be adapted to the mechanical demands of diet (Lucas et al.: Bioessays 30[2008] 374-385). Here we review the applicability of that model by examining existing data on the food mechanical properties and enamel morphology of great apes (Pan, Pongo, and Gorilla). Particular attention is paid to whether the consumption of fallback foods is likely to play a key role in influencing great ape enamel morphology. Our results suggest that this is indeed the case. We also consider the implications of this conclusion on the evolution of the dentition of extinct hominins.

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A comparative study has been made of human and great ape molar tooth enamel. Nanoindentation techniques are used to map profiles of elastic modulus and hardness across sections from the enamel–dentin junction to the outer tooth surface. The measured data profiles overlap between species, suggesting a degree of commonality in material properties. Using established deformation and fracture relations, critical loads to produce function-threatening damage in the enamel of each species are calculated for characteristic tooth sizes and enamel thicknesses. The results suggest that differences in load-bearing capacity of molar teeth in primates are less a function of underlying material properties than of morphology.

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OBJECTIVES: This study analyzes the results of the arterial switch operation for transposition of the great arteries in member institutions of the European Congenital Heart Surgeons Association. METHODS: The records of 613 patients who underwent primary arterial switch operations in each of 19 participating institutions in the period from January 1998 through December 2000 were reviewed retrospectively. RESULTS: A ventricular septal defect was present in 186 (30%) patients. Coronary anatomy was type A in 69% of the patients, and aortic arch pathology was present in 20% of patients with ventricular septal defect. Rashkind septostomy was performed in 75% of the patients, and 69% received prostaglandin. There were 37 hospital deaths (operative mortality, 6%), 13 (3%) for patients with an intact ventricular septum and 24 (13%) for those with a ventricular septal defect (P < .001). In 36% delayed sternal closure was performed, 8% required peritoneal dialysis, and 2% required mechanical circulatory support. Median ventilation time was 58 hours, and intensive care and hospital stay were 6 and 14 days, respectively. Although of various preoperative risk factors the presence of a ventricular septal defect, arch pathology, and coronary anomalies were univariate predictors of operative mortality, only the presence of a ventricular septal defect approached statistical significance (P = .06) on multivariable analysis. Of various operative parameters, aortic crossclamp time and delayed sternal closure were also univariate predictors; however, only the latter was an independent statistically significant predictor of death. CONCLUSIONS: Results of the procedure in European centers are compatible with those in the literature. The presence of a ventricular septal defect is the clinically most important preoperative risk factor for operative death, approaching statistical significance on multivariable analysis.

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1. Egg yolks contain carotenoids that protect biological molecules against free-radical damage and promote maturation of the immune system. Availability of carotenoids to birds is often limited. Trade-offs can thus arise in the allocation of carotenoids to different physiological functions, and mothers may influence the immunocompetence of nestlings by modulating the transfer of carotenoid to the yolk.;2. In the great tit Parus major, we experimentally manipulated the dietary supply of carotenoid to mothers, and partially cross-fostered hatchlings to investigate the effect of an increased availability of carotenoids during egg laying on immunocompetence of nestlings.;3. In addition, we infested half of the nests with hen fleas Ceratophyllus gallinae to investigate the relationship between carotenoid availability, resistance to ectoparasites and immunocompetence.;4. We found that the procedure of cross-fostering can reduce the immune response of nestlings, but this effect can be compensated by the maternally transferred carotenoids. Cross-fostered nestlings of carotenoid-supplemented females show a similar immune response to non-cross-fostered nestlings, while cross-fostered nestlings of control females mounted a weaker cell-mediated immune response. This suggests that yolk carotenoids may help nestlings to cope with stress, for example the one generated by cross-fostering and/or they may enhance nestling competitiveness.;5. There was no statistically significant interaction between parasite and carotenoid treatments, as would be expected if carotenoids helped nestlings to fight parasites. Under parasite pressure, however, lighter nestlings raised a lower immune response, while the immune response was only weakly correlated with body mass in uninfested nests.

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Sibling and parente-offspring conflicts arise mainly over the amount and distribution of parental care, especially food. In altricial bird species where the young depend on parents for obtaining food, parents may control sibling competition by the choice of their respective provisioning locations. In great tits, the parents use fixed provisioning positions on the nest rim that are determined early in the breeding cycle and maintained until. edging. The two parents may choose positions that are close to each other, or far apart, and thereby increase or relax the pressure for optimal feeding positioning among nestlings. As an inspiration to this study we previously found that the two parents provide food from closer positions if the nest is infested by ectoparasites. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the parental choice of relative provisioning locations could be strategically used to control nestling competition. We forced parents to feed from either one or two provisioning locations and assessed the induced change in nestling movement, weight gain, and food distribution among siblings. We show that the angular distance between male and female locations influences the level of behavioural competition and affects nestling weight gain and food distribution. It is the first evidence for hole-nesting birds, where it was assumed that the nestling closest to the entrance hole was fed first, that the apparent choice of feeding positions by parents could be a way of controlling sibling competition and thereby also taking partial control over the outcome of parente-offspring conflict. (c) 2007 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Green-tree retention under the conceptual framework of ecological forestry has the potential to provide both biomass feedstock for industry and maintain quality wildlife habitat. I examined the effects of retained canopy trees as biological legacies (“legacy trees”) in aspen (Populus spp.) forests on above-ground live woody biomass, understory plant floristic quality, and bird diversity. Additionally, I evaluated habitat quality for a high conservation priority species, the Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera). I selected 27 aspen-dominated forest stands in northern Wisconsin with nine stands in each of three legacy tree retention treatments (conifer retention, hardwood retention, and clearcuts or no retention) across a chronosequence (4-36 years post-harvest). Conifer retention stands had greater legacy tree and all tree species biomass but lower regenerating tree biomass than clearcuts. Coniferous but not hardwood legacy trees appeared to suppress regenerating tree biomass. I evaluated the floristic quality of the understory plant assemblage by estimating the mean coefficient of conservatism (C). Mean C was lower in young stands than in middle-age or old stands; there was a marginally significant (p=0.058) interaction effect between legacy tree retention treatment and stand age. Late-seral plant species were positively associated with stand age and legacy tree diameter or age revealing an important relationship between legacy tree retention and stand development. Bird species richness was greatest in stands with hardwood retention particularly early in stand development. Six conservation priority bird species were indicators of legacy tree retention or clearcuts. Retention of legacy trees in aspen stands provided higher quality nest habitat for the Golden-winged Warbler than clearcuts based on high pairing success and nesting activity. Retention of hardwoods, particularly northern red oak (Quercus rubra), yielded the most consistent positive effects in this study with the highest bird species richness and the highest quality habitat for the Golden-winged Warbler. This treatment maintained stand biomass comparable to clearcuts and did not suppress regenerating tree biomass. In conclusion, legacy tree retention can enhance even-aged management techniques to produce a win-win scenario for the conservation of declining bird species and late-seral understory plants and for production of woody biomass feedstock from naturally regenerating aspen forests.

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The Great Lakes watershed is home to over 40 million people, and the health of the Great Lakes ecosystem is vital to the overall economic, societal, and environmental health of the U.S. and Canada. However, environmental issues related to them are sometimes overlooked. Policymakers and the public face the challenges of balancing economic benefits with the need to conserve and/or replenish regional natural resources to ensure long term prosperity. From the literature review, nine critical stressors of ecological services were delineated, which include pollution and contamination, agricultural erosion, non-native species, degraded recreational resources, loss of wetlands habitat, climate change, risk of clean water shortage, vanishing sand dunes, and population overcrowding; this list was validated through a series of stakeholder discussions and focus groups in Grand Rapids. Focus groups were conducted in Grand Rapids to examine the awareness of, concern with, and willingness to expend resources on these stressors. Stressors that the respondents have direct contact with tend to be the most important. The focus group results show that concern related to pollution and contamination is much higher than for any of the other stressors. Low responses to climate change result in recommendations for outreach programs.

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Information on phosphorus bioavailability can provide water quality managers with the support required to target point source and watershed loads contributing most significantly to water quality conditions. This study presents results from a limited sampling program focusing on the five largest sources of total phosphorus to the U.S. waters of the Great Lakes. The work provides validation of the utility of a bioavailability-based approach, confirming that the method is robust and repeatable. Chemical surrogates for bioavailability were shown to hold promise, however further research is needed to address site-to-site and seasonal variability before a universal relationship can be accepted. Recent changes in the relative contribution of P constituents to the total phosphorus analyte and differences in their bioavailability suggest that loading estimates of bioavailable P will need to address all three components (SRP, DOP and PP). A bioavailability approach, taking advantage of chemical surrogate methodologies is recommended as a means of guiding P management in the Great Lakes.

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Fatal falls from great height are a frequently encountered setting in forensic pathology. They present--by virtue of a calculable energy transmission to the body--an ideal model for the assessment of the effects of blunt trauma to a human body. As multislice computed tomography (MSCT) has proven not only to be invaluable in clinical examinations, but also to be a viable tool in post-mortem imaging, especially in the field of osseous injuries, we performed a MSCT scan on 20 victims of falls from great height. We hereby detected fractures and their distributions were compared with the impact energy. Our study suggests a marked increase of extensive damage to different body regions at about 20 kJ and more. The thorax was most often affected, regardless of the amount of impacting energy and the primary impact site. Cranial fracture frequency displayed a biphasic distribution with regard to the impacting energy; they were more frequent in energies of less than 10, and more than 20 kJ, but rarer in the intermediate energy group, namely that of 10-20 kJ.

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Simulations of forest stand dynamics in a modelling framework including Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) are diameter driven, thus the diameter or basal area increment model needs a special attention. This dissertation critically evaluates diameter or basal area increment models and modelling approaches in the context of the Great Lakes region of the United States and Canada. A set of related studies are presented that critically evaluate the sub-model for change in individual tree basal diameter used in the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), a dominant forestry model in the Great Lakes region. Various historical implementations of the STEMS (Stand and Tree Evaluation and Modeling System) family of diameter increment models, including the current public release of the Lake States variant of FVS (LS-FVS), were tested for the 30 most common tree species using data from the Michigan Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program. The results showed that current public release of the LS-FVS diameter increment model over-predicts 10-year diameter increment by 17% on average. Also the study affirms that a simple adjustment factor as a function of a single predictor, dbh (diameter at breast height) used in the past versions, provides an inadequate correction of model prediction bias. In order to re-engineer the basal diameter increment model, the historical, conceptual and philosophical differences among the individual tree increment model families and their modelling approaches were analyzed and discussed. Two underlying conceptual approaches toward diameter or basal area increment modelling have been often used: the potential-modifier (POTMOD) and composite (COMP) approaches, which are exemplified by the STEMS/TWIGS and Prognosis models, respectively. It is argued that both approaches essentially use a similar base function and neither is conceptually different from a biological perspective, even though they look different in their model forms. No matter what modelling approach is used, the base function is the foundation of an increment model. Two base functions – gamma and Box-Lucas – were identified as candidate base functions for forestry applications. The results of a comparative analysis of empirical fits showed that quality of fit is essentially similar, and both are sufficiently detailed and flexible for forestry applications. The choice of either base function in order to model diameter or basal area increment is dependent upon personal preference; however, the gamma base function may be preferred over the Box-Lucas, as it fits the periodic increment data in both a linear and nonlinear composite model form. Finally, the utility of site index as a predictor variable has been criticized, as it has been widely used in models for complex, mixed species forest stands though not well suited for this purpose. An alternative to site index in an increment model was explored, using site index and a combination of climate variables and Forest Ecosystem Classification (FEC) ecosites and data from the Province of Ontario, Canada. The results showed that a combination of climate and FEC ecosites variables can replace site index in the diameter increment model.

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We used active remote sensing technology to characterize forest structure in a northern temperate forest on a landscape- and local-level in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Specifically, we used a form of active remote sensing called light detection and ranging (e.g., LiDAR) to aid in the depiction of current forest structural stages and total canopy gap area estimation. On a landscape-level, LiDAR data are shown not only to be a useful tool in characterizing forest structure, in both coniferous and deciduous forest cover types, but also as an effective basis for data-driven surrogates for classification of forest structure. On a local-level, LiDAR data are shown to be a benchmark reference point to evaluate field-based canopy gap area estimations, due to the highly accurate nature of such remotely sensed data. The application of LiDAR remote sensed data can help facilitate current and future sustainable forest management.

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Anthropogenic activities have increased phosphorus (P) loading in tributaries to the Laurentian Great Lakes resulting in eutrophication in small bays to most notably, Lake Erie. Changes to surface water quality from P loading have resulted in billions of dollars in damage and threaten the health of the world’s largest freshwater resource. To understand the factors affecting P delivery with projected increasing urban lands and biofuels expansion, two spatially explicit models were coupled. The coupled models predict that the majority of the basin will experience a significant increase in urban area P sources while the agriculture intensity and forest sources of P will decrease. Changes in P loading across the basin will be highly variable spatially. Additionally, the impacts of climate change on high precipitation events across the Great Lakes were examined. Using historical regression relationships on phosphorus concentrations, key Great Lakes tributaries were found to have future changes including decreasing total loads and increases to high-flow loading events. The urbanized Cuyahoga watersheds exhibits the most vulnerability to these climate-induced changes with increases in total loading and storm loading , while the forested Au Sable watershed exhibits greater resilience. Finally, the monitoring network currently in place for sampling the amount of phosphorus entering the U.S. Great Lakes was examined with a focus on the challenges to monitoring. Based on these interviews, the research identified three issues that policy makers interested in maintaining an effective phosphorus monitoring network in the Great Lakes should consider: first, that the policy objectives driving different monitoring programs vary, which results in different patterns of sampling design and frequency; second, that these differences complicate efforts to encourage collaboration; and third, that methods of funding sampling programs vary from agency to agency, further complicating efforts to generate sufficient long-term data to improve our understanding of phosphorus into the Great Lakes. The dissertation combines these three areas of research to present the potential future impacts of P loading in the Great Lakes as anthropogenic activities, climate and monitoring changes. These manuscripts report new experimental data for future sources, loading and climate impacts on phosphorus.