Ecological fallacy in a time series context: evidence from the Spanish regional unemployment rates

The ecological fallacy (EF) is a common problem regional scientists have to deal with when using aggregated data in their analyses. Although there is a wide number of studies considering different aspects of this problem, little attention has been paid to the potential negative effects of the EF in a time series context. Using Spanish regional unemployment data, this paper shows that EF effects are not only observed at the cross-section level, but also in a time series framework. The empirical evidence obtained shows that analytical regional configurations are the least susceptible to time effects relative to both normative and random regional configurations, while normative configurations are an improvement over random ones.

Patson Approach versus the Standard Approach for increasing breast reconstruction rates in women undergoing mastectomy. A randomized, controlled, open-label clinical trial

Breast cancer is the most prevalent neoplasm among women in the majority of countries worldwide. Breast cancer treatment include mastectomy which is associated to strong impact in women. Breast reconstruction is an option for many women to re-establish their body image and also to decrease psychological impact. However, breast reconstruction rates are low and many factors are involved in not undergoing breast reconstruction. Patient involvement in the decision-making process increases breast reconstruction rates and is associated to higher satisfaction and less anxiety and depression symptoms. More physician-patient relation and more education in terms of breast reconstruction are needed to achieve our objective. A new approach of medical care, called Patson Approach, is created in order to meet our goal with more patient involvement, as well as, physician and psychological counsellingObjective: to increase breast reconstruction rates in women who are candidates for breast reconstruction after mastectomy and are included in the Patson Approach compared to women included in the Standard ApproachMethods: the study design will be a randomized, controlled, open-label clinical trial. 62 patients will be recruited during two years and randomly divided in two groups, 31 will be included in the Standard Approach and 31 will be included in the Patson Approach. Preoperative and postoperative appointments are established in order to do a follow-up of the patients and collect all the data

Retrieval of kinetic rates in reactions with semi batch liquid phase using ill-posed inverse problem theory

A neural network procedure to solve inverse chemical kinetic problems is discussed in this work. Rate constants are calculated from the product concentration of an irreversible consecutive reaction: the hydrogenation of Citral molecule, a process with industrial interest. Simulated and experimental data are considered. Errors in the simulated data, up to 7% in the concentrations, were assumed to investigate the robustness of the inverse procedure. Also, the proposed method is compared with two common methods in nonlinear analysis; the Simplex and Levenberg-Marquardt approaches. In all situations investigated, the neural network approach was numerically stable and robust with respect to deviations in the initial conditions or experimental noises.

Carbon sequestration rates in Swedish forest soils : a comparison of three approaches

Selective papers of the workshop on "Development of models and forest soil surveys for monitoring of soil carbon", Koli, Finland, April 5-9 2006.

Wood consumption rates of forest species by subterranean termites (Isoptera) under field conditions

Termites are well -known for their capacity to damage and destroy wood and wood products of all kinds in the tropics and subtropics. A field test was undertaken to evaluate variations in wood consumption of Pinus sp. and three species of Eucalyptus by subterranean termites. The test consisted of wooden stakes of each species being initially submitted to water immersion for 0, 24, 48 and 72 h, and buried in the ground to natural infestation by subterranean termites for an exposure period of 30, 45 and 60 days. Three species of subterranean termites were identified: Heterotermes longiceps (Snyder), Coptotermes gestroi (Wasmann) (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae), and Nasutitermes jaraguae (Holmgren) (Isoptera: Termitidae). This is the first record of occurrence of H. longiceps in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Although the wood-consumption rates were not correlated significantly with their wood densities, there was a tendency of the softwoods (E. robusta and Pinus sp.) to be more consumed by subterranean termites than the woods of intermediate hardness (E. pellita and E. urophylla). Among the eucalyptus, E. robusta showed to be more susceptible to attack by subterranean termites than E. pellita and E. urophylla

Swine effluent treatment using anaerobic digestion at different loading rates

The industrial swine production is characterized by generation of significant effluent amounts that require treatment. The most adopted practices by Brazilian swine farmers have been wastewater storage in lagoons and its subsequent use as a biofertilizer. Nutrient accumulation in soil and water creates the need for an effective management of these residues. The anaerobic digestion process is an important alternative and low-cost treatment for organic matter reduction. However, its efficiency is limited by the digester capacity of solid degradation, especially at low hydraulic retention times. Thus, the present study aimed to verify the behavior of an upflow anaerobic digester by increasing the organic loading rate. This was accomplished in three stages using, as a parameter, volatile solids at 0.5; 1.0 and 1.5 kgVS m-3 d-1, respectively. This digester model proved to be quite robust and effective in swine manure treatment, achieving high efficiency of volatile solid removal at all stages of the study (stage 1: 61.38%; stage 2: 55.18%; and stage 3: 43.18%). Biogas production was directly related to the increasing organic load, reaching 0.14, 0.85, and 0.86 Nm³ kgVS-1add., respectively, with no significant difference (p<0.05) of biogas methane concentration among the studied stages (73.7, 75.0, and 77.9%).

Crystal-associated cholangiopathy in sheep grazing Brachiaria decumbens containing the saponin protodioscin

An outbreak of hepatogenous photosensitization is reported in a flock of 28 sheep grazing Brachiaria decumbens in Mato Grosso do Sul State, Central-Western Brazil. Seven lambs and an adult sheep were affected and 6 of them died. Two surviving affected lambs and one lamb without clinical signs had increased serum values of gamma glutamyltransferase, bilirubin, and cholesterol. In two adult unaffected sheep those parameters were within normal values. An adult sheep submitted to necropsy presented moderate body condition, unilateral corneal opacity, drying of the muzzle, moderate jaundice, increased lobular pattern of the liver, and a distended gallbladder. Histological lesions were epithelial degeneration, necrosis, and hyperplasia of small bile ducts. Mild amounts of foamy macrophages were observed, mainly in the centroacinar zone. Diffuse swelling and vacuolation were observed in hepatocytes. Crystal negative images were found within bile ducts, foamy macrophages, and the lumen of some renal tubules. The heart showed multifocal areas of degeneration and necrosis of the muscle fibers. Pasture samples (Brachiaria decumbens) contained 2.36% of protodioscin. No Pithomyces chartarum spores were found in the pasture. Samples from a similar neighboring B. decumbens pasture grazed by cattle without photosensitization contained 1.63% of protodioscin isomers. Outbreaks of photosensitization caused by Brachiaria spp. are common in cattle in the Brazilian Cerrado (savanna) with about 51 million hectares of Brachiaria spp pastures. Sheep farming has been recently developed in this region, and the number of sheep is increasing significantly. Because sheep are more susceptible than cattle to lithogenic saponins, poisoning by Brachiaria should be an important limiting factor for the sheep industry.

Diagnostic value of copper parameters to predict growth of suckling calves grazing native range in Argentina

A study was conducted to evaluate the predictive diagnostic value of different copper (Cu) parameters as indicators of average daily gain (ADG) in growing calves. The effects in calves of cow Cu supplementation in the last one-third gestation period were also evaluated. Five supplementation trials, with a total of 300 calves, were carried out. Two groups of 30 calves were randomly assigned to each trial, one group was parenterally supplemented (SG) and the other was not supplemented (NSG). Trials began when calves were three-month-old and ended at weaning time. At each sampling calves were weighed and blood was taken to determine Cu concentrations in plasma, Whole Blood (WB), Red Cells (RC) and Packed Cell Volume (PCV). Liver samples from six animals of each group were taken both at the beginning and at the end of the trial. In two trials the mothers of the SG received Cu supplementation at the last one- third gestation period. Four of the five trials exhibited low ADG in the NSGs. In these groups, plasma Cu concentration decreased rapidly before low ADG was detected, which occurred with values remaining below 25µg/dl. The decrease of RC Cu concentration was considerably slow. WB showed an intermediate position. PCV in the SGs was higher than in the NSGs in all trials. Cow supplementation was insufficient to generate a liver storage able to last after calves reached the 3 months of age. These data could be useful to predict the risk of low ADG in grazing calves.

Different pathways in the larval development of the crab Ucides cordatus (Decapoda, Ocypodidae) and their relation with high mortality rates by the end of massive larvicultures

One of the most limiting factors affecting the larval rearing of Ucides cordatus in the laboratory is a period of high mortality, which usually occurs late in the course of the larviculture during the metamorphosis from the zoeal to the megalopal phase. The objective of the present research was to analyze the post-embryonic development of U. cordatus on an individual basis and, in particular, to search for patterns linking disturbances in the molting process to the high larval death rates observed in massive larvicultures. A total of 50 larvae were individually reared from hatching to metamorphosis into the megalopal phase under controlled conditions, fed a combination of microalgae and rotifers. The survivorship rate was 70% until zoea V. The 35 surviving zoea V larvae followed two different pathways. Eleven underwent metamorphosis directly to megalopa, eighteen molted to zoea VI and six died as zoea V. In the last molting event, only two zoea VI larvae reached the megalopal stage, while the remaining sixteen died. In further observation under microscope, 13 of the dead zoea VI showed characteristics of the pre-molt stage and pereiopods disproportionably large in relation to the carapace. The observed pattern resembles the Molt Death Syndrome (MDS) described for other decapod species, in which larvae die in the late pre-molt phase of the molting cycle. We suggest that U. cordatus larvae develop disturbances in the molting process similar to the MDS described for other species and that these disturbances are related to a more complex pathway involving the emergence of larval stage zoea VI.