Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO2 may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

Precision placement of fertiliser for optimising the early nutrition of vegetable crops: a review of the implications for the yield and quality of crops, and their nutrient use efficiency

The research outlined in this paper highlights the importance of the early nutrition of vegetable crops, and its long-term effects on their subsequent growth and development. Results are also presented to demonstrate how the nutrient supply during the establishment stages of young seedlings and transplants can be enhanced by targeting fertiliser to a zone close to their developing roots. Three different precision fertiliser placement techniques are compared for this purpose: starter, band or side-injected fertiliser. The use of each of these methods consistently produced the same (or greater) yields at lower application rates than those from conventional broadcast applications, increasing the apparent recovery of N, P and K, and the overall efficiency of nutrient use, while reducing the levels of residual nutrients in the soil. Starter fertilisers also advanced the maturity of some crops, and enhanced produce quality by increasing the proportions of the larger and/or more desirable marketable grades. The benefits of the different placement techniques are illustrated with selected examples from research at Warwick HRI using different vegetable crops, including lettuce, onion and carrot.

Shoot yield drives phosphorus use efficiency in Brassica oleracea and correlates with root architecture traits

The environmental and financial costs of using inorganic phosphate fertilizers to maintain crop yield and quality are high. Breeding crops that acquire and use phosphorus (P) more efficiently could reduce these costs. The variation in shoot P concentration (shoot-P) and various measures of P use efficiency (PUE) were quantified among 355 Brassica oleracea L. accessions, 74 current commercial cultivars, and 90 doubled haploid (DH) mapping lines from a reference genetic mapping population. Accessions were grown at two or more external P concentrations in glasshouse experiments; commercial and DH accessions were also grown in replicated field experiments. Within the substantial species-wide diversity observed for shoot-P and various measures of PUE in B. oleracea, current commercial cultivars have greater PUE than would be expected by chance. This may be a consequence of breeding for increased yield, which is a significant component of most measures of PUE, or early establishment. Root development and architecture correlate with PUE; in particular, lateral root number, length, and growth rate. Significant quantitative trait loci associated with shoot-P and PUE occur on chromosomes C3 and C7. These data provide information to initiate breeding programmes to improve PUE in B. oleracea.

Relationships between yield and mineral concentrations in potato tubers

There is concern that modern cultivars and/or agronomic practices have resulted in reduced concentrations of mineral elements essential to human nutrition in edible crops. Increased yields are often associated with reduced concentrations of mineral elements in produce, and a number of recent studies have indicated that, when grown under identical conditions, the concentrations of several mineral elements are lower in genotypes yielding more grain or shoot biomass than in older, lower-yielding genotypes. Potato is a significant crop, grown worldwide, yet few studies have investigated whether increasing yields, through agronomy or breeding, affects the concentrations of mineral elements in tubers. This article examines the hypothesis that increasing yields, either by the application of mineral fertilizers and/or by growing higher-yielding varieties, leads to decreased concentrations of mineral elements in tubers. It reports that the application of fertilizers influences tuber elemental composition in a complex manner, presumably as a consequence of soil chemistry and interactions between mineral elements within the plant, that considerable variation exists between potato genotypes in the concentrations of mineral elements in their tubers, and that, like in other crops, higher-yielding genotypes occasionally have lower concentrations of some mineral elements in their edible tissues than lower-yielding genotypes.

Infra-red laser ablative micromachining of parylene-C on SiO2substrates for rapid prototyping, high yield, human neuronal cell patterning

Cell patterning commonly employs photolithographic methods for the micro fabrication of structures on silicon chips. These require expensive photo-mask development and complex photolithographic processing. Laser based patterning of cells has been studied in vitro and laser ablation of polymers is an active area of research promising high aspect ratios. This paper disseminates how 800 nm femtosecond infrared (IR) laser radiation can be successfully used to perform laser ablative micromachining of parylene-C on SiO2 substrates for the patterning of human hNT astrocytes (derived from the human teratocarcinoma cell line (hNT)) whilst 248 nm nanosecond ultra-violet laser radiation produces photo-oxidization of the parylene-C and destroys cell patterning. In this work, we report the laser ablation methods used and the ablation characteristics of parylene-C for IR pulse fluences. Results follow that support the validity of using IR laser ablative micromachining for patterning human hNT astrocytes cells. We disseminate the variation in yield of patterned hNT astrocytes on parylene-C with laser pulse spacing, pulse number, pulse fluence and parylene-C strip width. The findings demonstrate how laser ablative micromachining of parylene-C on SiO2 substrates can offer an accessible alternative for rapid prototyping, high yield cell patterning with broad application to multi-electrode arrays, cellular micro-arrays and microfluidics.

Quantifying uncertainty in remotely sensed land cover maps

Remotely sensed land cover maps are increasingly used as inputs into environmental simulation models whose outputs inform decisions and policy-making. Risks associated with these decisions are dependent on model output uncertainty, which is in turn affected by the uncertainty of land cover inputs. This article presents a method of quantifying the uncertainty that results from potential mis-classification in remotely sensed land cover maps. In addition to quantifying uncertainty in the classification of individual pixels in the map, we also address the important case where land cover maps have been upscaled to a coarser grid to suit the users’ needs and are reported as proportions of land cover type. The approach is Bayesian and incorporates several layers of modelling but is straightforward to implement. First, we incorporate data in the confusion matrix derived from an independent field survey, and discuss the appropriate way to model such data. Second, we account for spatial correlation in the true land cover map, using the remotely sensed map as a prior. Third, spatial correlation in the mis-classification characteristics is induced by modelling their variance. The result is that we are able to simulate posterior means and variances for individual sites and the entire map using a simple Monte Carlo algorithm. The method is applied to the Land Cover Map 2000 for the region of England and Wales, a map used as an input into a current dynamic carbon flux model.

Estimating the potential yield of small wind turbines in urban areas: a case study for Greater London, UK

To optimise the placement of small wind turbines in urban areas a detailed understanding of the spatial variability of the wind resource is required. At present, due to a lack of observations, the NOABL wind speed database is frequently used to estimate the wind resource at a potential site. However, recent work has shown that this tends to overestimate the wind speed in urban areas. This paper suggests a method for adjusting the predictions of the NOABL in urban areas by considering the impact of the underlying surface on a neighbourhood scale. In which, the nature of the surface is characterised on a 1 km2 resolution using an urban morphology database. The model was then used to estimate the variability of the annual mean wind speed across Greater London at a height typical of current small wind turbine installations. Initial validation of the results suggests that the predicted wind speeds are considerably more accurate than the NOABL values. The derived wind map therefore currently provides the best opportunity to identify the neighbourhoods in Greater London at which small wind turbines yield their highest energy production. The model does not consider street scale processes, however previously derived scaling factors can be applied to relate the neighbourhood wind speed to a value at a specific rooftop site. The results showed that the wind speed predicted across London is relatively low, exceeding 4 ms-1 at only 27% of the neighbourhoods in the city. Of these sites less than 10% are within 10 km of the city centre, with the majority over 20 km from the city centre. Consequently, it is predicted that small wind turbines tend to perform better towards the outskirts of the city, therefore for cities which fit the Burgess concentric ring model, such as Greater London, ‘distance from city centre’ is a useful parameter for siting small wind turbines. However, there are a number of neighbourhoods close to the city centre at which the wind speed is relatively high and these sites can only been identified with a detailed representation of the urban surface, such as that developed in this study.

Continuous sky view factor maps from high resolution urban digital elevation models

This paper presents a new method to calculate sky view factors (SVFs) from high resolution urban digital elevation models using a shadow casting algorithm. By utilizing weighted annuli to derive SVF from hemispherical images, the distance light source positions can be predefined and uniformly spread over the whole hemisphere, whereas another method applies a random set of light source positions with a cosine-weighted distribution of sun altitude angles. The 2 methods have similar results based on a large number of SVF images. However, when comparing variations at pixel level between an image generated using the new method presented in this paper with the image from the random method, anisotropic patterns occur. The absolute mean difference between the 2 methods is 0.002 ranging up to 0.040. The maximum difference can be as much as 0.122. Since SVF is a geometrically derived parameter, the anisotropic errors created by the random method must be considered as significant.

Dependence of sea ice yield-curve shape on ice thickness

In this note, the authors discuss the contribution that frictional sliding of ice floes (or floe aggregates) past each other and pressure ridging make to the plastic yield curve of sea ice. Using results from a previous study that explicitly modeled the amount of sliding and ridging that occurs for a given global strain rate, it is noted that the relative contribution of sliding and ridging to ice stress depends upon ice thickness. The implication is that the shape and size of the plastic yield curve is dependent upon ice thickness. The yield-curve shape dependence is in addition to plastic hardening/weakening that relates the size of the yield curve to ice thickness. In most sea ice dynamics models the yield-curve shape is taken to be independent of ice thickness. The authors show that the change of the yield curve due to a change in the ice thickness can be taken into account by a weighted sum of two thickness-independent rheologies describing ridging and sliding effects separately. It would be straightforward to implement the thickness-dependent yield-curve shape described here into sea ice models used for global or regional ice prediction.

The trading profitability of forecasts of the gilt–equity yield ratio

Research has highlighted the usefulness of the Gilt–Equity Yield Ratio (GEYR) as a predictor of UK stock returns. This paper extends recent studies by endogenising the threshold at which the GEYR switches from being low to being high or vice versa, thus improving the arbitrary nature of the determination of the threshold employed in the extant literature. It is observed that a decision rule for investing in equities or bonds, based on the forecasts from a regime switching model, yields higher average returns with lower variability than a static portfolio containing any combinations of equities and bonds. A closer inspection of the results reveals that the model has power to forecast when investors should steer clear of equities, although the trading profits generated are insufficient to outweigh the associated transaction costs.

What will be the risk-free rate and benchmark yield curve following European monetary union?

Using a linear factor model, we study the behaviour of French, Germany, Italian and British sovereign yield curves in the run up to EMU. This allows us to determine which of these yield curves might best approximate a benchmark yield curve post EMU. We find that the best approximation for the risk free yield is the UK three month T-bill yield, followed by the German three month T-bill yield. As no one sovereign yield curve dominates all others, we find that a composite yield curve, consisting of French, Italian and UK bonds at different maturity points along the yield curve should be the benchmark post EMU.

Mid-Holocene and glacial-maximum vegetation geography of the northern continents and Africa.

BIOME 6000 is an international project to map vegetation globally at mid-Holocene (6000 14C yr bp) and last glacial maximum (LGM, 18,000 14C yr bp), with a view to evaluating coupled climate-biosphere model results. Primary palaeoecological data are assigned to biomes using an explicit algorithm based on plant functional types. This paper introduces the second Special Feature on BIOME 6000. Site-based global biome maps are shown with data from North America, Eurasia (except South and Southeast Asia) and Africa at both time periods. A map based on surface samples shows the method’s skill in reconstructing present-day biomes. Cold and dry conditions at LGM favoured extensive tundra and steppe. These biomes intergraded in northern Eurasia. Northern hemisphere forest biomes were displaced southward. Boreal evergreen forests (taiga) and temperate deciduous forests were fragmented, while European and East Asian steppes were greatly extended. Tropical moist forests (i.e. tropical rain forest and tropical seasonal forest) in Africa were reduced. In south-western North America, desert and steppe were replaced by open conifer woodland, opposite to the general arid trend but consistent with modelled southward displacement of the jet stream. The Arctic forest limit was shifted slighly north at 6000 14C yr bp in some sectors, but not in all. Northern temperate forest zones were generally shifted greater distances north. Warmer winters as well as summers in several regions are required to explain these shifts. Temperate deciduous forests in Europe were greatly extended, into the Mediterranean region as well as to the north. Steppe encroached on forest biomes in interior North America, but not in central Asia. Enhanced monsoons extended forest biomes in China inland and Sahelian vegetation into the Sahara while the African tropical rain forest was also reduced, consistent with a modelled northward shift of the ITCZ and a more seasonal climate in the equatorial zone. Palaeobiome maps show the outcome of separate, independent migrations of plant taxa in response to climate change. The average composition of biomes at LGM was often markedly different from today. Refugia for the temperate deciduous and tropical rain forest biomes may have existed offshore at LGM, but their characteristic taxa also persisted as components of other biomes. Examples include temperate deciduous trees that survived in cool mixed forest in eastern Europe, and tropical evergreen trees that survived in tropical seasonal forest in Africa. The sequence of biome shifts during a glacial-interglacial cycle may help account for some disjunct distributions of plant taxa. For example, the now-arid Saharan mountains may have linked Mediterranean and African tropical montane floras during enhanced monsoon regimes. Major changes in physical land-surface conditions, shown by the palaeobiome data, have implications for the global climate. The data can be used directly to evaluate the output of coupled atmosphere-biosphere models. The data could also be objectively generalized to yield realistic gridded land-surface maps, for use in sensitivity experiments with atmospheric models. Recent analyses of vegetation-climate feedbacks have focused on the hypothesized positive feedback effects of climate-induced vegetation changes in the Sahara/Sahel region and the Arctic during the mid-Holocene. However, a far wider spectrum of interactions potentially exists and could be investigated, using these data, both for 6000 14C yr bp and for the LGM.

Contribution of insect pollinators to crop yield and quality varies with agricultural intensification

Background: Up to 75% of crop species benefit at least to some degree from animal pollination for fruit or seed set and yield. However, basic information on the level of pollinator dependence and pollinator contribution to yield is lacking for many crops. Even less is known about how insect pollination affects crop quality. Given that habitat loss and agricultural intensification are known to decrease pollinator richness and abundance, there is a need to assess the consequences for different components of crop production. Methods: We used pollination exclusion on flowers or inflorescences on a whole plant basis to assess the contribution of insect pollination to crop yield and quality in four flowering crops (spring oilseed rape, field bean, strawberry, and buckwheat) located in four regions of Europe. For each crop, we recorded abundance and species richness of flower visiting insects in ten fields located along a gradient fromsimple to heterogeneous landscapes. Results: Insect pollination enhanced average crop yield between 18 and 71% depending on the crop. Yield quality was also enhanced in most crops. For instance, oilseed rape had higher oil and lower chlorophyll contents when adequately pollinated, the proportion of empty seeds decreased in buckwheat, and strawberries’ commercial grade improved; however, we did not find higher nitrogen content in open pollinated field beans. Complex landscapes had a higher overall species richness of wild pollinators across crops, but visitation rates were only higher in complex landscapes for some crops. On the contrary, the overall yield was consistently enhanced by higher visitation rates, but not by higher pollinator richness. Discussion. For the four crops in this study, there is clear benefit delivered by pollinators on yield quantity and/or quality, but it is not maximized under current agricultural intensification. Honeybees, the most abundant pollinator, might partially compensate the loss of wild pollinators in some areas, but our results suggest the need of landscape-scale actions to enhance wild pollinator populations.