A Sensitivity analysis of poverty definitions

We conduct a sensitivity analysis of several estimators related to household income, to explore how some details of the definitions of the variables concerned influence the values of the common estimates, such as the mean, median and (poverty) rates. The purpose of this study is to highlight that some of the operational definitions entail an element of arbitrariness which leaves an undesirable stamp on the inferences made. The analyses use both a cross-sectional and a longitudinal (panel) component of the EU-SILC database.

The ‘Dragon’ and the ‘Elephant’ and Global Imbalances

Global financial imbalances receive a great deal of attention in relation to the emerging economies China and India. This chapter analyzes this relation, but argues first that they are actually re-balancing the existing structural inequality in the world economy, in which for so long only the Western economies and Japan dominated economic growth and international trade, moving towards a more multi-polar world economy. China in particular, with its rapid export-led growth, has indeed been part and parcel of the emerging financial imbalances, feeding the ‘over-consumption’ in the US and using its accumulating international reserves in buying US-treasury bonds. Finance therefore is moving to the economy that ‘least needs it’. This imbalance can only be redressed if the US (and some of the other OECD countries) start saving more and consuming less (and become more competitive), with China further stimulating domestic demand (which it already did in response to the crisis). China and to a lesser extend India, as emerging large economies and a more important roles in global markets, also contribute to new imbalances, such as the influence of the insatiable appetite for resources (carbon-hydrates, minerals and bio-mass) of these relatively energy-inefficient economies, while at the same time attracting an increasing share of FDI towards them. The chapter finally raises the issue that these three mentioned imbalances make it more difficult for developing countries (except for those who are resource-rich) to get access to the necessary development finance.

Moderate amounts of fructose consumption impair insulin sensitivity in healthy young men: a randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: Adverse effects of hypercaloric, high-fructose diets on insulin sensitivity and lipids in human subjects have been shown repeatedly. The implications of fructose in amounts close to usual daily consumption, however, have not been well studied. This study assessed the effect of moderate amounts of fructose and sucrose compared with glucose on glucose and lipid metabolism. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Nine healthy, normal-weight male volunteers (aged 21-25 years) were studied in this double-blind, randomized, cross-over trial. All subjects consumed four different sweetened beverages (600 mL/day) for 3 weeks each: medium fructose (MF) at 40 g/day, and high fructose (HF), high glucose (HG), and high sucrose (HS) each at 80 g/day. Euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic clamps with [6,6]-(2)H(2) glucose labeling were used to measure endogenous glucose production. Lipid profile, glucose, and insulin were measured in fasting samples. RESULTS: Hepatic suppression of glucose production during the clamp was significantly lower after HF (59.4 ± 11.0%) than HG (70.3 ± 10.5%, P < 0.05), whereas fasting glucose, insulin, and C-peptide did not differ between the interventions. Compared with HG, LDL cholesterol and total cholesterol were significantly higher after MF, HF, and HS, and free fatty acids were significantly increased after MF, but not after the two other interventions (P < 0.05). Subjects' energy intake during the interventions did not differ significantly from baseline intake. CONCLUSIONS: This study clearly shows that moderate amounts of fructose and sucrose significantly alter hepatic insulin sensitivity and lipid metabolism compared with similar amounts of glucose.

A novel tool for the assessment of pain: validation in low back pain.

BACKGROUND: Adequate pain assessment is critical for evaluating the efficacy of analgesic treatment in clinical practice and during the development of new therapies. Yet the currently used scores of global pain intensity fail to reflect the diversity of pain manifestations and the complexity of underlying biological mechanisms. We have developed a tool for a standardized assessment of pain-related symptoms and signs that differentiates pain phenotypes independent of etiology. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using a structured interview (16 questions) and a standardized bedside examination (23 tests), we prospectively assessed symptoms and signs in 130 patients with peripheral neuropathic pain caused by diabetic polyneuropathy, postherpetic neuralgia, or radicular low back pain (LBP), and in 57 patients with non-neuropathic (axial) LBP. A hierarchical cluster analysis revealed distinct association patterns of symptoms and signs (pain subtypes) that characterized six subgroups of patients with neuropathic pain and two subgroups of patients with non-neuropathic pain. Using a classification tree analysis, we identified the most discriminatory assessment items for the identification of pain subtypes. We combined these six interview questions and ten physical tests in a pain assessment tool that we named Standardized Evaluation of Pain (StEP). We validated StEP for the distinction between radicular and axial LBP in an independent group of 137 patients. StEP identified patients with radicular pain with high sensitivity (92%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 83%-97%) and specificity (97%; 95% CI 89%-100%). The diagnostic accuracy of StEP exceeded that of a dedicated screening tool for neuropathic pain and spinal magnetic resonance imaging. In addition, we were able to reproduce subtypes of radicular and axial LBP, underscoring the utility of StEP for discerning distinct constellations of symptoms and signs. CONCLUSIONS: We present a novel method of identifying pain subtypes that we believe reflect underlying pain mechanisms. We demonstrate that this new approach to pain assessment helps separate radicular from axial back pain. Beyond diagnostic utility, a standardized differentiation of pain subtypes that is independent of disease etiology may offer a unique opportunity to improve targeted analgesic treatment.

Blow-up, concentration phenomenon and global existence for the Keller-Segel model in high dimension

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Declaració sobre la crisi econòmica global i el seu impacte en les compres consorciades (14 de juny de 2010)

Redactada en nom dels molts consorcis de biblioteques de tot el món que participen a l'ICOLC, aquesta declaració té dos propòsits. Té la intenció d'ajudar als editors i altres proveïdors de contingut amb els quals tenim accés als recursos d'informació electrònica (d'ara en endavant simplement anomenats editors) a entendre millor com l'actual crisi econòmica única afecta a la comunitat de la informació de tot el món. El segon propòsit és suggerir un ventall de propostes que creiem són de benefici comú per a les biblioteques i els proveïdors de serveis d'informació.

Declaración sobre la crisis económica global y su impacto en las compras consorciadas (14 de junio de 2010)

Redactada en nombre de los muchos consorcios de bibliotecas de todo el mundo que participan en ICOLC, esta declaración tiene dos propósitos. Tiene la intención de ayudar a los editores y otros proveedores de contenido con los cuales tenemos acceso a los recursos de información electrónica (de ahora en adelante simplemente llamados editores) a entender mejor cómo la actual crisis económica única afecta a la comunidad de la información de todo el mundo. El segundo propósito es sugerir un abanico de propuestas que creemos son de beneficio común para las bibliotecas y los proveedores de servicios de información.

The Quest for Regulating the Global Diamond Trade

Campaign efforts by NGOs initially put conflict diamonds on the global radar screen in the late 1990s. In response, the Kimberley Process (KP), a negotiation forum between states, NGOs, and industry, was formed to discuss possible solutions to curb the trade in conflict diamonds. Less than three years later, a voluntary, global certification named the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) was adopted. The KPCS regulates the trade of rough diamonds by certifying all legitimate diamonds. This paper outlines the problem of conflict diamonds, how a global campaign raised awareness about the issue, and how the process of solution building unfolded in the KP. My analysis focuses on the diverse set of actors (NGOs, states, and industry) and their changing interactions over the course of the campaign and global regulation efforts. I conclude with several key lessons that capture important elements observed in this case study.

Association of mutations in the NALP3/CIAS1/PYPAF1 gene with a broad phenotype including recurrent fever, cold sensitivity, sensorineural deafness, and AA amyloidosis.

OBJECTIVE: Familial cold urticaria (FCU) and Muckle-Wells syndrome (MWS) are dominantly inherited autoinflammatory disorders that cause rashes, fever, arthralgia, and in some subjects, AA amyloidosis, and have been mapped to chromosome 1q44. Sensorineural deafness in MWS, and provocation of symptoms by cold in FCU, are distinctive features. This study was undertaken to characterize the genetic basis of FCU, MWS, and an overlapping disorder in French Canadian, British, and Indian families, respectively. METHODS: Mutations in the candidate gene NALP3, which has also been named CIAS1 and PYPAF1, were sought in the study families, in a British/Spanish patient with apparent sporadic MWS, and in matched population controls. Identified variants were sought in 50 European subjects with uncharacterized, apparently sporadic periodic fever syndromes, 48 subjects with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and 19 subjects with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). RESULTS: Point mutations, encoding putative protein variants R262W and L307P, were present in all affected members of the Indian and French Canadian families, respectively, but not in controls. The R262W variant was also present in the subject with sporadic MWS. The V200M variant was present in all affected members of the British family with MWS, in 2 of the 50 subjects with uncharacterized periodic fevers, and in 1 of 130 Caucasian and 2 of 48 Indian healthy controls. No mutations were identified among the subjects with RA or JIA. CONCLUSION: These findings confirm that mutations in the NALP3/CIAS1/PYPAF1 gene are associated with FCU and MWS, and that disease severity and clinical features may differ substantially within and between families. Analysis of this gene will improve classification of patients with inherited or apparently sporadic periodic fever syndromes.

Dibenzofuran degradation by Sphingomonas wittichii RW1 under environmental stresses

Sphingomonas wittichii is a gram-negative Alpha-proteobacterium, capable of degrading xenobiotic compounds such as dibenzofuran (DBF), dibenzo-p-dioxin, carbazole, 2-hydroxybiphenyl or nitro diphenyl ether herbicides. The metabolism of strain RW1 has been the subject of previous studies and a number of genes involved in DBF degradation have been characterized. It is known that RW1 posseses a unique initial DBF dioxygenase (encoded by the dxnAl gene) that catalyzes the first step in the degradation pathway. None of the organisms known to be able to degrade DBF have a similar dioxygenase, the closest match being the DBF dioxygenase from Rhodococcus sp. with an overall amino acid similarity of 45%. Genes participating in the conversion of the metabolite salicylate via the ortho-cleavage pathway to TCA cycle intermediates were identified as well. Apart from this scarce information, however, there is a lack of global knowledge on the genes that are involved in DBF degradation by strain RW1 and the influence of environmental stresses on DBF-dependent global gene expression. A global analysis is necessary, because it may help to better understand the behaviour of the strain under field conditions and suggest improvements for the current bioaugmentation practice. Chapter 2 describes the results of whole-genome analysis to characterize the genes involved in DBF degradation by RW1. Micro-array analysis allowed us to detect differences in gene transcription when strain RW1 was exposed to DBF. This was complemented by ultra-high throughput sequencing of mutants no longer capable of growing on salicylate and DBF. Some of the genes of the ortho-cleavage pathway were induced 2 to 4 times in the presence of DBF, as well as the initial DBF dioxygenase. However two gene clusters, named 4925 and 5102 were induced up to 19 times in response to DBF induction. The cluster 4925 is putatively participating in a meta-cleavage pathway while the cluster 5102 might be part of a gentisate pathway. The three pathways, ortho-cleavage, meta-cleavage and gentisate pathway seem to be active in parallel when strain RW1 is exposed to DBF, presenting evidence for a redundancy of genes for DBF degradation in the genome of RW1. Chapter 3 focuses on exploiting genetic tools to construct bioreporters representative for DBF degradation in RW1. A set of basic tools for genetic manipulation in Sphingomonas wittichii RW1 was tested and optimized. Both plasmids and mini-transposons were evaluated for their ability to be maintained in RW1 with or without antibiotic selection pressure, and for their ability to lead to fluorescent protein expression in strain RW1 from a constitutive promoter. Putative promoter regions of three of the previously found DBF-induced genes (Swit_4925, Swit_5102 and Swit_4897-dxnAl) were then used to construct eg/^-bioreporters in RW1. Chapter 4 describes the use of the constructed RW1-based bioreporter strains for examining the expression of the DBF degradation pathway genes under microcosm conditions. The bioreporter strains were first exposed to different carbon sources in liquid culture to calibrate the egfp induction. Contrary to our expectations from micro-array analysis only the construct with the promoter from gene cluster 4925 responded to DBF, whereas the other two constructs did not show specific induction with DBF. The response from the bioreporters was subsequently tested for sensitivity to water stress, given that this could have an important impact in soils. Exposure to liquid cultures with decreasing water potential, achieved by NaCl or PEG addition to the growth media, showed that eGFP expression in RW1 from the promoter regions 4925 and 5102 was not directly influenced by water stress, but only through an overall reduction in growth rate. In contrast, expression of eGFP from the dxnAl or an uspA promoter was also directly dependent on the extent of water stress. The RW1 with the 4925 construct was subsequently used in soil microcosms to evaluate DBF bioavailability to the cells in presence or absence of native microbiota or other contaminated material. We found that RW1 could grow on DBF added to soil, but bioreporter expression suggested that competition with native microbiota for DBF intermediates may limit its ability to proliferate to a maximum. Chapter 5 describes the results from the experiments carried out to more specifically detect genes of RW1 that might be implicated in water stress resistance. Hereto we created transposon mutagenesis libraries in RW1, either with a classical mini-Tn5 or with a variant that would express egfp when the transposon would insert in a gene induced under water stress. Classical mutant libraries were screened by replica plating under high and low water stress conditions (achieved by adding NaCl to the agar medium). In addition, we screened for smaller microcolonies formed by mutants in agarose beads that could be analized with flow cytometry. A number of mutants impaired to grow on NaCl-supplemented media were recovered and the transposon insertion sites sequenced. In a second procedure we screened by flow cytometry for mutants with a higher eGFP production after exposure to growth medium with higher NaCl concentrations. Mutants from both libraries rarely overlapped. Discovered gene functions of the transposon insertions pointed to compatible solute synthesis (glutamate and proline), cell membrane synthesis and modification of cell membrane composition. The results obtained in the present study give us a more complete picture of the mechanisms of DBF degradation by S. wittichii RW1, how it reacts to different DBF availability and how the DBF catabolic activity may be affected by the conditions found in contaminated environments. - Sphingomonas wittichii est une alpha-protéobactérie gram-négative, capable de dégrader des composés xénobiotiques tels que le dibenzofurane (DBF), la dibenzo-p-dioxine, le carbazole, le 2-hydroxybiphényle ou les herbicides dérivés du nitro-diphényléther. Le métabolisme de la souche RW1 a fait l'objet d'études antérieures et un certain nombre de gènes impliqués dans la dégradation du DBF ont été caractérisés. Il est connu que RW1 possède une unique dioxygénase DBF initiale (codée par le gène dxnAl) qui catalyse la première étape de la voie de dégradation. Aucun des organismes connus pour être capables de dégrader le DBF n'a de dioxygénase similaire. L'enzyme la plus proche étant la DBF dioxygénase de Rhodococcus sp. avec 45% d'acides aminés conservés. Les gènes qui participent à la transformation du salicylate en métabolites intermédiaires du cycle de Krebs par la voie ort/io-cleavage ont aussi été identifiés. Outre ces informations lacunaires, il y a un manque de connaissances sur l'ensemble des gènes impliqués dans la dégradation du DBF par la souche RW1 ainsi que l'effet des stress environnementaux sur l'expression génétique globale, en présence du DBF. Une analyse globale est nécessaire, car elle peut aider à mieux comprendre le comportement de la souche dans les conditions de terrain et de proposer des améliorations pour l'utilisation de la bio-augmentation comme technique de bio-remédiation. Le chapitre 2 décrit les résultats de l'analyse du génome pour caractériser les gènes impliqués dans la dégradation du DBF par RW1. Une analyse de micro-arrays nous a permis de détecter des différences dans la transcription des gènes lorsque la souche RW1 a été exposée au DBF. L'analyse a été complétée par le criblage à ultra-haut débit de mutants qui n'étaient plus capables de croître avec le salicylate ou le DBF comme seule source de carbone. Certains des gènes de la voie ortho-cleavage, dont la DBF dioxygénase initiale, ont xî été induits 2 à 4 fois, en présence du DBF. Cependant, deux groupes de gènes, nommés 4925 et 5102 ont été induits jusqu'à 19 fois en réponse au DBF. Le cluster 4925 participe probablement dans une voie de meta-cleavage tandis que le cluster 5102 pourrait faire partie d'une voie du gentisate. Les trois voies, ortho-cleavage, meta-cleavage et la voie du gentisate semblent être activées en parallèle lorsque la souche RW1 est exposée au DBF, ce qui représente une redondance de voies pour la dégradation du DBF dans le génome de RW1. Le chapitre 3 se concentre sur l'exploitation des outils génétiques pour la construction de biorapporteurs de la dégradation du DBF par RW1. Un ensemble d'outils de base pour la manipulation génétique dans Sphingomonas wittichii RW1 a été testé et optimisé. Deux plasmides et mini-transposons ont été évalués pour leur capacité à être maintenu dans RW1 avec ou sans pression de sélection par des antibiotiques, et pour leur capacité à exprimer la protéine fluorescente verte (eGFP) dans la souche RW1. Les trois promoteurs des gènes Swit_4925, Swit_5102 et Swit_4897 (dxnAl), induits en réponse au DBF, ont ensuite été utilisés pour construire des biorapporteurs dans RW1. Le chapitre 4 décrit l'utilisation des souches biorapportrices construites pour l'analyse de l'expression des gènes de la voie de dégradation du DBF dans des microcosmes avec différents types de sols. Les souches biorapportrices ont d'abord été exposées à différentes sources de carbone en cultures liquides afin de calibrer l'induction de la eGFP. La construction avec le promoteur du gène 4925 a permis une réponse au DBF. Mais contrairement à nos attentes, basées sur les résultats de l'analyse des micro-arrays, les deux autres constructions n'ont pas montré d'induction spécifique au DBF. La réponse des biorapporteurs a ensuite été testée pour la sensibilité au stress hydrique, étant donné que cela pourrait avoir un impact important dans les microcosmes. La diminution du potentiel hydrique en culture liquide est obtenue par addition de NaCl ou de PEG au milieu de croissance. Nous avons montré que l'expression de la eGFP contrôlée par les promoteurs 4925 et 5102 n'était pas directement influencée par le stress hydrique, mais seulement par une réduction globale des taux de croissance. En revanche, l'expression de la eGFP dépendante des promoteurs dxnAl et uspA était aussi directement dépendante de l'ampleur du stress hydrique. La souche avec la construction 4925 a été utilisée par la suite dans des microcosmes avec différents types de sols pour évaluer la biodisponibilité du DBF en présence ou absence des microbes indigènes et d'autres composés contaminants. Nous avons constaté que RW1 pouvait se développer si le DBF a été ajouté au sol, mais l'expression de la eGFP par le biorapporteur suggère que la compétition avec la microbiota indigène pour les métabolites intermédiaires du DBF peut limiter sa capacité à proliférer de manière optimale. Le chapitre 5 décrit les résultats des expériences réalisées afin de détecter spécifiquement les gènes de RW1 qui pourraient être impliquées dans la résistance au stress hydrique. Ici on a crée des bibliothèques de mutants de RW1 par transposon, soit avec un mini-Tn5 classique ou avec une variante qui exprime la eGFP lorsque le transposon s'insère dans un gène induit par le stress hydrique. Les bibliothèques de mutants ont été criblées par la méthode classique de repiquage sur boîtes, dans des conditions de stress hydrique élevé (obtenu par l'addition de NaCl dans les boîtes). En outre, nous avons criblé des micro¬colonies dans des billes d'agarose qui ont pu être analysées par cytométrie de flux. Un certain nombre de mutants déficients à croître sur des milieux supplémentés avec du NaCl ont été isolés et les sites d'insertion du transposon séquencés. Dans une deuxième procédure nous avons criblé par cytométrie de flux des mutants avec une production de eGFP supérieure, après exposition à un milieu de croissance avec une concentration élevée de NaCl. Les mutants obtenus dans les deux bibliothèques n'étaient pas similaires. Les fonctions des gènes où se trouvent les insertions de transposons sont impliqués dans la synthèse de solutés compatibles (glutamate et de la proline), dans la synthèse de la membrane cellulaire et dans la modification de la composition de la membrane cellulaire. Les résultats obtenus dans la présente étude nous donnent une image plus complète des mécanismes de dégradation du DBF par S. wittichii RW1, comment cette souche réagit à la disponibilité du DBF et comment l'activité catabolique peut être affectée par les conditions rencontrées dans des environnements contaminés.

Predicting community and ecosystem outcomes of mycorrhizal responses to global change.

Mycorrhizal symbioses link the biosphere with the lithosphere by mediating nutrient cycles and energy flow though terrestrial ecosystems. A more mechanistic understanding of these plant-fungal associations may help ameliorate anthropogenic changes to C and N cycles and biotic communities. We explore three interacting principles: (1) optimal allocation, (2) biotic context and (3) fungal adaptability that may help predict mycorrhizal responses to carbon dioxide enrichment, nitrogen eutrophication, invasive species and land-use changes. Plant-microbial feedbacks and thresholds are discussed in light of these principles with the goal of generating testable hypotheses. Ideas to develop large-scale collaborative research efforts are presented. It is our hope that mycorrhizal symbioses can be effectively integrated into global change models and eventually their ecology will be understood well enough so that they can be managed to help offset some of the detrimental effects of anthropogenic environmental change.

Aproximació a Mala herba des del pensament de Nietzsche i l'existencialisme: significat de l'obra en la trajectòria de Lu Xun i en el context del sistema literari global

Aquest treball analitza l'obra de poemes en prosa Mala herba de Lu Xun, situant-la en el seu context de producció i posant-la en relació amb el pensament de Nietzsche i l'existencialisme. El meu objectiu és mostrar l'originalitat d'aquesta obra i la seva importància cabdal en la trajectòria vital i literària de l'autor. Lu Xun elabora a Mala herba una posició particular sobre el compromís que evoluciona des de l'individualisme nietzscheà cap a l'humanisme existencialista. Per altra banda, l'experimentació formal de l'obra la situa en l'avantguarda del modernisme en el context del sistema literari global

Abnormal sensitivity to negative feedback in late-life depression.

AIMS: The purpose of the present study was to probe sensitivity to potentially misleading negative feedback on cognitive tasks as a possible mechanism of cognitive impairment in elderly patients with mild depression. METHODS: A total of 22 mildly depressed elderly subjects were compared to 22 healthy controls, using a computerized Tower-of-London task. RESULTS: Failure and magnitude of failure were significantly worse after negative but not positive feedback. Depression predicted failure after negative feedback but not the magnitude of failure. Neither failure nor magnitude of failure increased as a consequence of repeated negative feedback. CONCLUSIONS: Altered sensitivity to negative feedback occurs in mild late-life unipolar depression and may represent a subtle context-specific phenomenon.

Chromoblastomycosis murine model and in vitro test to evaluate the sensitivity of Fonsecaea pedrosoi to ketoconazole, itraconazole and saperconazole

An experimental model of murine chromoblastomycosis and in vitro tests with Fonsecaea pedrosoi were used to test the sensitivity of this fungus to three different antimycotics. The experimental model was standardized in BALB/c mice inoculated intraperitoneally with a 10(6) CFU/ml suspension of a F. pedrosoi isolate. Clinical infection was evident after 5 days of inoculation. Three groups of 27 mice each were used in the experiment. One group was treated with ketoconazole (KTZ), another with itraconazole (ITZ) and the other with saperconazole (SPZ). Antimycotic therapy was continued for 21 days. The control group consisted of 40 mice which were inoculated, but not treated. Infection was documented by macroscopic and microscopic examination of affected tissue in addition to culture of tissue macerates. Minimal inhibitory concentrations (MIC) and minimal fungicidal concentrations (MFC) for the F. pedrosoi strain used were done. The in vitro results showed that SPZ was the most active with MIC 0.01 mg/ml and MFC 0.1 mg/ml, followed by ITZ. SPZ was also the most effective in vivo since 63% of the treated animals (p=0.01) showed a curative effect after the observation period. We concluded that SPZ had the best in vitro and in vivo activity against F. pedrosoi.

Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change.

Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.