The Jama legal narrative part II: A foray into concepts of improbability

In judicial decision making, the doctrine of chances takes explicitly into account the odds. There is more to forensic statistics, as well as various probabilistic approaches, which taken together form the object of an enduring controversy in the scholarship of legal evidence. In this paper, I reconsider the circumstances of the Jama murder and inquiry (dealt with in Part I of this paper: 'The JAMA Model and Narrative Interpretation Patterns'), to illustrate yet another kind of probability or improbability. What is improbable about the Jama story is actually a given, which contributes in terms of dramatic underlining. In literary theory, concepts of narratives being probable or improbable date back from the eighteenth century, when both prescientific and scientific probability were infiltrating several domains, including law. An understanding of such a backdrop throughout the history of ideas is, I claim, necessary for Artificial Intelligence (AI) researchers who may be tempted to apply statistical methods to legal evidence. The debate for or against probability (and especially Bayesian probability) in accounts of evidence has been flourishing among legal scholars; nowadays both the Bayesians (e.g. Peter Tillers) and the Bayesio-skeptics (e.g. Ron Allen), among those legal scholars who are involved in the controversy, are willing to give AI research a chance to prove itself and strive towards models of plausibility that would go beyond probability as narrowly meant. This debate within law, in turn, has illustrious precedents: take Voltaire, he was critical of the application of probability even to litigation in civil cases; take Boole, he was a starry-eyed believer in probability applications to judicial decision making. Not unlike Boole, the founding father of computing, nowadays computer scientists approaching the field may happen to do so without full awareness of the pitfalls. Hence, the usefulness of the conceptual landscape I sketch here.

What students can tell about lecturers when they are teaching: manifestations of confident and under-confident lecturers

Delivering a lecture requires confidence, a sound knowledge and well developed teaching skills (Cooper and Simonds, 2007, Quinn and Hughes, 2007). However, practitioners who are new to lecturing large groups in higher education may initially lack the confidence to do so which can manifest itself in their verbal and non-verbal cues and the fluency of their teaching skills. This results in the perception that students can identify the confident and non-confident teacher during a lecture (Street, 2007) and so potentially contributing to a lecturer’s level of anxiety prior to, and during, a lecture. Therefore, in the current educational climate of consumerisation, with the increased evaluation of teaching by students, having the ability to deliver high-quality, informed, and interesting lectures assumes greater significance for both lecturers and universities (Carr, 2007; Higher Education Founding Council 2008, Glass et al., 2006). This paper will present both the quantitative and qualitative data from a two-phase mixed method study with 75 nurse lecturers and 62 nursing students in one university in the United Kingdom. The study investigated the notion that lecturing has similarities to acting (Street, 2007). The findings presented here are concerned with how students perceived lecturers’ level of confidence and how lecturers believed they demonstrated confidence. In phase one a specifically designed questionnaire was distributed to both lecturers and students and a response rate of 91% (n=125) was achieved, while in phase two 12 in-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with lecturers. Results suggested that students in a lecture could identify if the lecturer was confident or not by the way they performed a lecture. Students identified 57 manifestations of non-confidence and lecturers identified 85, while 57 manifestations of confidence were identified by students and 88 by lecturers. Overall, these fell into 12 main converse categories, ranging from body language to the use of space within the room. Both students and lecturers ranked body language, vocal qualities, delivery skills, involving the students and the ability to share knowledge as the most evident manifestations of confidence. Elements like good eye contact, smiling, speaking clearly and being fluent in the use of media recourses where all seen as manifestations confidence, conversely if these were poorly executed then a presentation of under confidence was evident. Furthermore, if the lecturer appeared enthusiastic it was clearly underpinned by the manifestation of a highly confidence lecturer who was secure in their knowledge base and teaching abilities: Some lecturers do appear enthusiastic but others don’t. I think the ones that do know what they are talking about, you can see it in their voice and in their lively body language. I think they are also good at involving the students even. I think the good ones are able to turn boring subjects into lively and interesting ones. (Student 50) Significantly more lecturers than students felt the lecturer should appear confident when lecturing. The lecturers stated it was particularly important to do so when they did not feel confident, because they were concerned with appearing capable. It seems that these students and lecturers perceived that expressive and apparently confident lecturers can make a positive impact on student groups in terms of involvement in lectures; the data also suggested the reverse, for the under confident lecturer. Findings from phase two indicated that these lecturers assumed a persona when lecturing, particularly, but not exclusively, when they were nervous. These lecturers went through a process of assuming and maintaining this persona before and during a lecture as a way of promoting their internal perceptions of confidence but also their outward manifestation of confidence. Although assuming a convincing persona may have a degree of deception about it, providing the knowledge communicated is accurate, the deception may aid rather than hinder learning, because enhances the delivery of a lecture. Therefore, the deception of acting a little more confidently than one feels might be justified when the lecturer knows the knowledge they are communicating is correct, unlike the Dr Fox Effect where the person delivering a lecture is an actor and does not know the subject in any detail or depth and where the deception to be justified (Naftulin, et al., 1973). In conclusion, these students and lecturers perceive that confident and enthusiastic lecturers communicate their passion for the subject in an interesting and meaningful manner through the use of their voice, body, space and interactions in such a way that shows confidence in their knowledge as well as their teaching abilities. If lecturers, therefore, can take a step back to consider how they deliver lectures in apparently confident ways this may increase their ability to engage their students and not only help them being perceived as good lecturers, but also contribute to the genuine act of education.

Simulating CO2 leakage into marine environments

Jerry Blackford of the Plymouth Marine Laboratory leads the UK Research Council funded Quantifying and Monitoring Potential Ecosystem Impacts of Geological Carbon Storage (QICS) program, and is a founding member of the new UK CCS Research Centre leading the environment research team. Here he talks to Muriel Cozier about how the world's first experiment to simulate a CO2 leak from underground storage in a marine environment will go a long way toward improving our understanding of a series of complex interactions.

It's good to be queen: classically eusocial colony structure and low worker fitness in an obligately eusocial sweat bee.

Lasioglossum malachurum, a bee species common across much of Europe, is obligately eusocial across its range but exhibits clear geographic variation in demography and social behaviour. This variation suggests that social interactions between queens and workers, opportunities for worker oviposition, and patterns of relatedness among nest mates may vary considerably, both within and among regions. In this study, we used three microsatellite loci with 12–18 alleles each to examine the sociogenetic structure of colonies from a population at Agios Nikolaos Monemvasias in southern Greece. These analyses reveal that the majority of colonies exhibit classical eusocial colony structure in which a single queen mated to a single male monopolizes oviposition. Nevertheless, we also detect low rates of multiqueen nest founding, occasional caste switching by worker-destined females, and worker oviposition of both gyne and male-producing eggs in the final brood. Previous evidence that the majority of workers show some ovarian development and a minority (17%) have at least one large oocyte contrasts with the observation that only 2–3% of gynes and males (the so-called reproductive brood) are produced by workers. An evaluation of the parameters of Hamilton's Rule suggests that queens benefit greatly from the help provided by workers but that workers achieve greater fitness by provisioning and laying their own eggs rather than by tending to the queen's eggs. This conflict of interest between the queen and her workers suggests that the discrepancy between potential and achieved worker oviposition is due to queen interference. Comparison of relatedness and maternity patterns in the Agios Nikolaos Monemvasias population with those from a northern population near Tübingen, Germany, points to a north–south cline of increasingly effective queen control of worker behaviour.

Education and the 'universalist' idiom of empire: Irish National School Books in Ireland and Ontario

This paper compares the founding of the elementary school systems of Ireland and Ontario in the nineteenth century. The systems shared a common set of textbooks that had originated in Ireland. Using examples from a number of these books, which were part of a series that had been specially prepared for the Irish national school system, founded in 1831, and information from archive sources on policy and administration in both countries, the paper argues that there was a common, ‘universalist’, imperialist ideology being promulgated in both systems. The article focuses on these ‘universalist’ principles rather than undertaking a detailed analysis of the textbooks.

Unraveling EU Policies: the ““Common Basic Principles”” and the ““European Integration Fund”” as a technology of government

this paper is about EU “soft policies” on immigrant integration. It analyzes the “Common Basic Principles” (CBPs) and the “European Integration Fund” (EIF), two devices that have been recently established within this framework. It adopts the theoretical perspective of the “anthropology of policy” and “governmentality studies”. It shows the context of birth of the aforementioned devices, as well as their functioning and the assessment done by the actors implied in the elaboration/implementation/evaluation of the related policies. It is based both on documentary research as well as direct observation and interviews done to the actors implied. It concludes that the PBC and the EIF should be considered as a “technology of government”, that strives to align the conduct of the actors with the governmental aims, as well as it produces specific practices and knowledge. It also underlines an intrinsic feature of many policies: their “congenital failure”, since they are (often) disputed and resignified by situated actors, who are embedded in asymmetrical power relations.

Cooperativism, entrepreneurship and economic development: a linking theoretical model

Cooperatives, as a kind of firms, are considered by many scholars as an remarkable alternative for overcoming the economic crisis started in 2008. Besides, there are other scholars which pointed out the important role that these firms play in the regional economic development. Nevertheless, when one examines the economic literature on cooperatives, it is detected that this kind of firms is mainly studied starting from the point of view of their own characteristics and particularities of participation and solidarity. In this sense, following a different analysis framework, this article proposes a theoretical model in order to explain the behavior of cooperatives based on the entrepreneurship theory with the aim of increasing the knowledge about this kind of firms and, more specifically, their contribution to regional economic development.

Social economy and economic crisis in the basque country abstract

This article examines the socio-economic evolution of the social economy sector in the Basque Country during the 2008-2014 period of economic crisis. Data have been obtained within a framework of collaboration between university, Basque Government and private sector of the social economy. The results suggest that such entities have evolved better, both in terms of number of enterprises and employment, than the general economy of the Basque Country, while the context of public policies aimed at social economy has worsened over the years. However, in economic terms (measured through the Gross Value Added generated), they have not been able to cope with the crisis in equal conditions to the general economy. The main contribution of this research lies in that, unlike similar studies, it discusses the evolution of the whole sector of the social economy, taking as reference a broad period of the current economic crisis.