The impact of North Atlantic sea surface temperature errors on the simulation of North Atlantic European region climate

Current state-of-the-art climate models fail to capture accurately the path of the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current. This leads to a warm bias near the North American coast, where the modelled Gulf Stream separates from the coast further north, and a cold anomaly to the east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, where the North Atlantic Current remains too zonal in this region. Using an atmosphere-only model forced with the sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the North Atlantic, we consider the impact they have on the mean state and the variability in the North Atlantic European region in winter. Our results show that the SST errors produce a mean sea-level pressure response that is similar in magnitude and pattern to the atmospheric circulation errors in the coupled climate model. The work also suggests that errors in the coupled model storm tracks and North Atlantic Oscillation, compared to reanalysis data, can also be explained partly by these SST errors. Our results suggest that both the error in the Gulf Stream separation location and the path of the North Atlantic Current around the Grand Banks play important roles in affecting the atmospheric circulation. Reducing these coupled model errors could improve significantly the representation of the large-scale atmospheric circulation of the North Atlantic and European region.

Toward a new generation of world climate research and computing facilities

The impending threat of global climate change and its regional manifestations is among the most important and urgent problems facing humanity. Society needs accurate and reliable estimates of changes in the probability of regional weather variations to develop science-based adaptation and mitigation strategies. Recent advances in weather prediction and in our understanding and ability to model the climate system suggest that it is both necessary and possible to revolutionize climate prediction to meet these societal needs. However, the scientific workforce and the computational capability required to bring about such a revolution is not available in any single nation. Motivated by the success of internationally funded infrastructure in other areas of science, this paper argues that, because of the complexity of the climate system, and because the regional manifestations of climate change are mainly through changes in the statistics of regional weather variations, the scientific and computational requirements to predict its behavior reliably are so enormous that the nations of the world should create a small number of multinational high-performance computing facilities dedicated to the grand challenges of developing the capabilities to predict climate variability and change on both global and regional scales over the coming decades. Such facilities will play a key role in the development of next-generation climate models, build global capacity in climate research, nurture a highly trained workforce, and engage the global user community, policy-makers, and stakeholders. We recommend the creation of a small number of multinational facilities with computer capability at each facility of about 20 peta-flops in the near term, about 200 petaflops within five years, and 1 exaflop by the end of the next decade. Each facility should have sufficient scientific workforce to develop and maintain the software and data analysis infrastructure. Such facilities will enable questions of what resolution, both horizontal and vertical, in atmospheric and ocean models, is necessary for more confident predictions at the regional and local level. Current limitations in computing power have placed severe limitations on such an investigation, which is now badly needed. These facilities will also provide the world's scientists with the computational laboratories for fundamental research on weather–climate interactions using 1-km resolution models and on atmospheric, terrestrial, cryospheric, and oceanic processes at even finer scales. Each facility should have enabling infrastructure including hardware, software, and data analysis support, and scientific capacity to interact with the national centers and other visitors. This will accelerate our understanding of how the climate system works and how to model it. It will ultimately enable the climate community to provide society with climate predictions, which are based on our best knowledge of science and the most advanced technology.

Glacial-interglacial temperature change in the tropical West Pacific: a comparison of stalagmite-based paleo-thermometers

In the tropics, geochemical records from stalagmites have so far mainly been used to qualitatively reconstruct changes in precipitation, but several new methods to reconstruct past temperatures from stalagmite material have emerged recently: i) liquid–vapor homogenization of fluid inclusion water ii) noble gas concentrations in fluid inclusion water, iii) the partitioning of oxygen isotopes between fluid inclusion water and calcite, and iv) the abundance of the 13C18O16O (‘clumped’) isotopologue in calcite. We present, for the first time, a direct comparison of these four paleo-thermometers by applying them to a fossil stalagmite covering nearly two glacial–interglacial cycles (Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 12–9) and to two modern stalagmites, all from northern Borneo. The temperature estimates from the different methods agree in most cases within errors for both the old and recent samples; reconstructed formation temperatures of the recent samples match within 2-sigma errors with measured cave temperatures. However, slight but systematic deviations are observed between noble gas and liquid–vapor homogenization temperatures. Whereas the temperature sensitivity of fluid inclusion δ18O and clumped isotopes is currently debated, we find that the calibration of Tremaine et al. (2011) for fluid inclusion δ18O and a synthetic calcite-based clumped isotope calibration (Ziegler et al., in prep.) yield temperature estimates consistent with the other methods. All methods (with the potential exception of clumped isotopes) show excellent agreement on the amplitude of glacial–interglacial temperature change, indicating temperature shifts of 4–5 °C. This amplitude is similar to the amplitude of Mg/Ca-based regional sea surface temperature records, when correcting for sea level driven changes in cave elevation. Our reconstruction of tropical temperature evolution over the time period from 440 to 320 thousand years ago (ka) adds support to the view that climate sensitivity to varying greenhouse forcing is substantial also in the deep tropics.

Chinese overseas doctoral student narratives of intercultural adaptation

This study aims to explore how Chinese overseas doctoral students adjust to a different academic, social and cultural environment, using Giddens’ theoretical framework of self-identity (1991). The findings indicate the participants proactively used various coping strategies in meeting challenges, and adapting to new social environments. Continuity and stability of self-identity were achieved either culturally or academically through self-reflexivity, autonomy, creativity, authenticity, and reliance on an ontological identity. The result is to challenge the grand narrative of essentialised “problematic Chinese learners”.

A new calibrated sunspot group series since 1749: statistics of active day fractions

Although the sunspot-number series have existed since the mid-19th century, they are still the subject of intense debate, with the largest uncertainty being related to the "calibration" of the visual acuity of individual observers in the past. Daisy-chain regression methods are applied to inter-calibrate the observers which may lead to significant bias and error accumulation. Here we present a novel method to calibrate the visual acuity of the key observers to the reference data set of Royal Greenwich Observatory sunspot groups for the period 1900-1976, using the statistics of the active-day fraction. For each observer we independently evaluate their observational thresholds [S_S] defined such that the observer is assumed to miss all of the groups with an area smaller than S_S and report all the groups larger than S_S. Next, using a Monte-Carlo method we construct, from the reference data set, a correction matrix for each observer. The correction matrices are significantly non-linear and cannot be approximated by a linear regression or proportionality. We emphasize that corrections based on a linear proportionality between annually averaged data lead to serious biases and distortions of the data. The correction matrices are applied to the original sunspot group records for each day, and finally the composite corrected series is produced for the period since 1748. The corrected series displays secular minima around 1800 (Dalton minimum) and 1900 (Gleissberg minimum), as well as the Modern grand maximum of activity in the second half of the 20th century. The uniqueness of the grand maximum is confirmed for the last 250 years. It is shown that the adoption of a linear relationship between the data of Wolf and Wolfer results in grossly inflated group numbers in the 18th and 19th centuries in some reconstructions.

On the relationships between molecular conformations and intermolecular contacts toward crystal self-assembly of mono-, di-, tri-, and tetra-oxygenated xanthone derivatives

Oxygenated xanthones have been extensively investigated over the years, but there are few reports concerning their crystal structure. Our chemical investigations of Brazilian plants resulted in the isolation of four natural products named 1-hydroxyxanthone (I), 1-hydroxy-7-methoxyxanthone (II), 1,5-dihydroxy-3-methoxyxanthone (III), and 1,7-dihydroxy-3,8-dimethoxyxanthone (IV). The structures of these compounds were established on the basis of single crystal X-ray diffraction. The xanthone nucleus conformation is essentially planar with the substituents adopting the orientations less sterically hindered. In addition, classical intermolecular hydrogen bonds (O-H center dot center dot center dot O) present in III and IV give rise to infinite ribbons. However, the xanthone I does not present any intermolecular hydrogen bonds, meanwhile the xanthone II presents only a non-classical one (C-H center dot center dot center dot O). The crystal packing of all xanthone structures is also stabilized by pi-pi interactions. The fingerprint plots, derived from the Hirshfeld surfaces, exhibited significant features of each crystal structures.

Effect of some antioxidants on oxidative DNA damage induced by autoxidation of microquantities of sulfite in the presence of Ni(II)/Gly-Gly-L-His

Ni(II)GGH (GGH, glycylglycyl-L-histidine) reacts rapidly with S(IV), in air-saturated solution, to produce Ni(III)GGH. A mechanism is proposed where Ni(III) oxidizes SO(3)(2-) to SO(3)(center dot-), which reacts with dissolved oxygen to produce SO(5)(center dot-), initiating radical chain reactions. DNA strand breaks and 8-oxo-7,8-dihydro-20-deoxyguanosine (8-oxodGuo) formation were observed in air-saturated solutions containing micromolar concentrations of nickel(II) and S(IV). The efficacies of melatonin, (-)-epigallocatechin-gallate (from green tea), resveratrol, tannic, and ascorbic acids in terms of their inhibitory activities of DNA strand breaks and 8-oxodGuo formation were evaluated.

Pedal : identification of models for duodenal administration of levodopa

Backgound and aims: The main purpose of the PEDAL study is to identify and estimate sample individual pharmacokinetic- pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models for duodenal infusion of levodopa/carbidopa (Duodopa®) that can be used for in numero simulation of treatment strategies. Other objectives are to study the absorption of Duodopa® and to form a basis for power calculation for a future larger study. PK/PD based on oral levodopa is problematic because of irregular gastric emptying. Preliminary work with data from [Gundert-Remy U et al. Eur J Clin Pharmacol 1983;25:69-72] suggested that levodopa infusion pharmacokinetics can be described by a two-compartment model. Background research led to a hypothesis for an effect model incorporating concentration-unrelated fluctuations, more complex than standard E-max models. Methods: PEDAL involved a few patients already on Duodopa®. A bolus dose (normal morning dose plus 50%) was given after a washout during night. Data collection continued until the clinical effect was back at baseline. The procedure was repeated on two non-consecutive days per patient. The following data were collected in 5 to 15 minutes intervals: i) Accelerometer data. ii) Three e-diary questions about ability to walk, feelings of “off” and “dyskinesia”. iii) Clinical assessment of motor function by a physician. iv) Plasma concentrations of levodopa, carbidopa and the metabolite 3-O-methyldopa. The main effect variable will be the clinical assessment. Results: At date of abstract submission, lab analyses were currently being performed. Modelling results, simulation experiments and conclusions will be presented in our poster.

The Potential Of Kohonen Method For Classifying Rivers Focused On Regional Environmental Flow Determination With ELOHA

This article highlights the potential benefits that the Kohonen method has for the classification of rivers with similar characteristics by determining regional ecological flows using the ELOHA (Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration) methodology. Currently, there are many methodologies for the classification of rivers, however none of them include the characteristics found in Kohonen method such as (i) providing the number of groups that actually underlie the information presented, (ii) used to make variable importance analysis, (iii) which in any case can display two-dimensional classification process, and (iv) that regardless of the parameters used in the model the clustering structure remains. In order to evaluate the potential benefits of the Kohonen method, 174 flow stations distributed along the great river basin “Magdalena-Cauca” (Colombia) were analyzed. 73 variables were obtained for the classification process in each case. Six trials were done using different combinations of variables and the results were validated against reference classification obtained by Ingfocol in 2010, whose results were also framed using ELOHA guidelines. In the process of validation it was found that two of the tested models reproduced a level higher than 80% of the reference classification with the first trial, meaning that more than 80% of the flow stations analyzed in both models formed invariant groups of streams.

Stochastic growth and monetary policy: the impacts on the term structure of interest rates

This paper builds a simple, empirically-verifiable rational expectations model for term structure of nominal interest rates analysis. It solves an stochastic growth model with investment costs and sticky inflation, susceptible to the intervention of the monetary authority following a policy rule. The model predicts several patterns of the term structure which are in accordance to observed empirical facts: (i) pro-cyclical pattern of the level of nominal interest rates; (ii) countercyclical pattern of the term spread; (iii) pro-cyclical pattern of the curvature of the yield curve; (iv) lower predictability of the slope of the middle of the term structure; and (v) negative correlation of changes in real rates and expected inflation at short horizons.

Retrospective study of thoracolumbar ventral fenestration through intercostal thoracotomy and paracostal laparotomy in the dog

Foram analisados os resultados da fenestração ventral dos discos toracolombares em 29 cães agrupados segundo a raça, sexo, peso, idade, graus de déficits neurológicos, duração dos sinais, discos intervertebrais envolvidos, tempo para recuperação e porcentagem de sucesso. A raça Dachshund representou 55,18% (n = 16), cães sem raça definida, 13,8% (n = 4), Poodle e Basset Hound e Cocker Spaniel Inglês 6,89% cada (n = 6), e Pastor Alemão, Beagle e Pinscher, 3,45% cada (n = 3), sendo 51,72%, machos e 48,28%, fêmeas, com idade média de 68,03 meses. O grau de déficits neurológicos correspondeu a: 13,8% dos cães pertencentes ao GI (dor), 41,8% ao GII (paresia), 27,6% ao GIII (paraplegia com dor profunda presente) e 17,2% ao GIV (paraplegia com dor profunda ausente). Os sinais clínicos variaram em duração entre 2 e 60 dias, correspondendo às médias de 18,5 (GI), 12,3 (GII), 8,28 (GIII) e 4,2 dias (GIV). A porcentagem de discos intervertebrais acometidos foi: T10/11 (10,81%), T11/12 (24,33%), T12/13 (40,55%), T13/L1 (16,21%) e L1/2, L2/3 e L3/4, 2,7% cada. O tempo médio de recuperação, em dias, foi: 16 (GI), 19,1 (GII), 20,6 (GIII) e 30,6 (GIV), onde 100% dos animais dos grupos I, II e III recuperaram ambas as funções neurológicas e motoras. O grupo IV apresentou 80% de sucesso. Conclui-se que a fenestração ventral produz excelentes resultados pós-operatórios desde que bem selecionados os casos.

Effect of fermented soy product on the fecal microbiota of rats fed on a beef-based animal diet

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Primary non-gestational choriocarcinoma of the uterine cervix: A case report

Background. Primary non-gestational choriocarcinoma of the female genital tract has been described in the ovaries and is very unusual in other genital sites.Case. Primary non-gestational uterine cervical choriocarcinoma was diagnosed in a patient, 32, single, without previous sexual contact nor antecedent pregnancy, admitted to the hospital with irregular vaginal hemorrhaging. Pelvic examination realized under anesthetic revealed a tumor mass occupying the uterine cervix. Metastases investigation was realized and the patient was accepted as FIGO IV: risk factor of 13. She was submitted to intensive chemotherapy and hysterectomy, showing general recovery, but died from drug-resistant disease 12 months later. Histological, immunohistochemical, and molecular genetics studies confirmed non-gestational choriocarcinoma.Conclusion. Primary non-gestational uterine cervical choriocarcinoma may arise from germ cell tumor or epithelial tissue. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Expression of fibroblast growth factor 10 and its receptor, fibroblast growth factor receptor 2B, in the bovine corpus luteum

There is evidence that several fibroblast growth factors (FGFs) are involved in growth and development of the corpus luteum (CL), but many FGFs have not been investigated in this tissue, including FGF10. The objective of this study was to determine if FGF10 and its receptor (FGFR2B) are expressed in the CL. Bovine CL were collected from an abattoir and classed as corpus hemorrhagica (stage 1), developing (stage 11), developed (stage 111), and regressed (stage IV) CL. Expression of FGF10 and FGFR2B mRNA was measured by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Both genes were expressed in bovine CL, and FGF10 expression did not differ between stages of CL development. FGF10 protein was localized to large and small luteal cells by immunohistochemistry. FGFR2B expression was approximately threefold higher in regressed compared to developing and developed CL (P < 0.05). To determine if FGF10 and FGFR2B expression is regulated during functional luteolysis, cattle were injected with PGF2 alpha and CL collected at 0, 0.5, 2, 4, 12, 24, 48, and 64 hr thereafter (n = 5 CL/time point), and mRNA abundance was measured by real-time RT-PCR. FGF10 mRNA expression did not change during functional luteolysis, whereas FGFR2B mRNA abundance decreased significantly at 2, 4, and 12 hr after PGF2a, and returned to pretreatment levels for the period 24-64 hr post-PGF2 alpha. These data suggest a potential role for FGFR2B signaling during structural luteolysis in bovine CL.

Clinical and histopathological analysis of oral squamous cell carcinoma in young people A descriptive study in Brazilians

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)