Oil spill environmental risk assessment of stationary sources in offshore zones (Innovating a mathematical model)

Nowadays, risks arising from the rapid development of oil and gas industries are significantly increasing. As a result, one of the main concerns of either industrial or environmental managers is the identification and assessment of such risks in order to develop and maintain appropriate proactive measures. Oil spill from stationary sources in offshore zones is one of the accidents resulting in several adverse impacts on marine ecosystems. Considering a site's current situation and relevant requirements and standards, risk assessment process is not only capable of recognizing the probable causes of accidents but also of estimating the probability of occurrence and the severity of consequences. In this way, results of risk assessment would help managers and decision makers create and employ proper control methods. Most of the represented models for risk assessment of oil spills are achieved on the basis of accurate data bases and analysis of historical data, but unfortunately such data bases are not accessible in most of the zones, especially in developing countries, or else they are newly established and not applicable yet. This issue reveals the necessity of using Expert Systems and Fuzzy Set Theory. By using such systems it will be possible to formulize the specialty and experience of several experts and specialists who have been working in petroliferous areas for several years. On the other hand, in developing countries often the damages to environment and environmental resources are not considered as risk assessment priorities and they are approximately under-estimated. For this reason, the proposed model in this research is specially addressing the environmental risk of oil spills from stationary sources in offshore zones.

Transforming Growth Factor-b1 polymorphism is not associated with chronic graft disease: evidence from a meta-analysis

Kidney transplantation has been recognised as the optimal treatment choice for most end stage renal disease patients and the increase of allograft survival rates is achieved through the refinement of novel immunosuppressive agents. Chronic Graft Disease (CGD) is a multifactorial process that likely includes a combination of immunological, apoptotic and inflammatory factors. The application of individualised immunosuppressive therapies will also depend on the identification of risk factors that can influence chronic disease. Despite being the subject of several independent studies, investigations of the relationship between transforming growth factor-b1 (TGF-b1) polymorphisms and kidney graft outcome continue to be plagued by contradictory conclusions.

Evaluation of ergonomic physical risk factors in a truck manufacturing plant: case study in SCANIA Production Angers

International audience

An ontology for risk management of digital collections

Maintaining accessibility to and understanding of digital information over time is a complex challenge that often requires contributions and interventions from a variety of individuals and organizations. The processes of preservation planning and evaluation are fundamentally implicit and share similar complexity. Both demand comprehensive knowledge and understanding of every aspect of to-be-preserved content and the contexts within which preservation is undertaken. Consequently, means are required for the identification, documentation and association of those properties of data, representation and management mechanisms that in combination lend value, facilitate interaction and influence the preservation process. These properties may be almost limitless in terms of diversity, but are integral to the establishment of classes of risk exposure, and the planning and deployment of appropriate preservation strategies. We explore several research objectives within the course of this thesis. Our main objective is the conception of an ontology for risk management of digital collections. Incorporated within this are our aims to survey the contexts within which preservation has been undertaken successfully, the development of an appropriate methodology for risk management, the evaluation of existing preservation evaluation approaches and metrics, the structuring of best practice knowledge and lastly the demonstration of a range of tools that utilise our findings. We describe a mixed methodology that uses interview and survey, extensive content analysis, practical case study and iterative software and ontology development. We build on a robust foundation, the development of the Digital Repository Audit Method Based on Risk Assessment. We summarise the extent of the challenge facing the digital preservation community (and by extension users and creators of digital materials from many disciplines and operational contexts) and present the case for a comprehensive and extensible knowledge base of best practice. These challenges are manifested in the scale of data growth, the increasing complexity and the increasing onus on communities with no formal training to offer assurances of data management and sustainability. These collectively imply a challenge that demands an intuitive and adaptable means of evaluating digital preservation efforts. The need for individuals and organisations to validate the legitimacy of their own efforts is particularly prioritised. We introduce our approach, based on risk management. Risk is an expression of the likelihood of a negative outcome, and an expression of the impact of such an occurrence. We describe how risk management may be considered synonymous with preservation activity, a persistent effort to negate the dangers posed to information availability, usability and sustainability. Risk can be characterised according to associated goals, activities, responsibilities and policies in terms of both their manifestation and mitigation. They have the capacity to be deconstructed into their atomic units and responsibility for their resolution delegated appropriately. We continue to describe how the manifestation of risks typically spans an entire organisational environment, and as the focus of our analysis risk safeguards against omissions that may occur when pursuing functional, departmental or role-based assessment. We discuss the importance of relating risk-factors, through the risks themselves or associated system elements. To do so will yield the preservation best-practice knowledge base that is conspicuously lacking within the international digital preservation community. We present as research outcomes an encapsulation of preservation practice (and explicitly defined best practice) as a series of case studies, in turn distilled into atomic, related information elements. We conduct our analyses in the formal evaluation of memory institutions in the UK, US and continental Europe. Furthermore we showcase a series of applications that use the fruits of this research as their intellectual foundation. Finally we document our results in a range of technical reports and conference and journal articles. We present evidence of preservation approaches and infrastructures from a series of case studies conducted in a range of international preservation environments. We then aggregate this into a linked data structure entitled PORRO, an ontology relating preservation repository, object and risk characteristics, intended to support preservation decision making and evaluation. The methodology leading to this ontology is outlined, and lessons are exposed by revisiting legacy studies and exposing the resource and associated applications to evaluation by the digital preservation community.

Associations between liking for fat, sweet or salt and obesity risk in French adults

International audience

Social buffering of fear in zebrafish

Tese de Doutoramento em Biologia Comportamental apresentada ao ISPA - Instituto Universitário

Risk Factors for Neonatal Sepsis and Method for Reduction of Blood Culture Contamination

Background False-positive blood cultures findings may lead to a falsely increased morbidity and increased hospital costs. Method The survey was conducted as retrospective - prospective study and included 239 preterm infants (born before 37 weeks of gestation) who were treated in Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) in Institute for Child and Youth Health Care of Vojvodina during one year (January 1st, 2012 to December 31st, 2012). The retrospective part of the study focused on examination of incidence of neonatal sepsis and determination of risk factors. In the prospective part of the study infants were sub-divided into two groups: Group 1- infants hospitalized in NICU during the first 6 months of the study; blood cultures were taken by the ‘’clean technique’’ and checklists for this procedure were not taken. Group 2- neonates hospitalized in NICU during last 6 months of the study; blood cultures were taken by ‘’sterile technique’’ and checklists for this procedure were taken. Results The main risk factors for sepsis were prelabor rupture of membranes, low gestational age, low birth weight, mechanical ventilation, umbilical venous catheter placement, and abdominal drainage. Staphylococcus aureus and coagulase negative Staphylococcus were the most frequently isolated microorganisms in false-positive blood samples. Conclusions Education of employees, use of checklists and sterile sets for blood sampling, permanent control of false positive blood cultures, as well as regular and routine monthly reports are crucial for successful reduction of contamination rates.

Experimentally Testing the Effect of Parent-Adolescent Conflict on HIV Risk, and Investigation of a Neurobiological Moderator of This Effect

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a condition in which immune cells become destroyed such that the body may become unable to fight off infections. Engaging in risk-taking behaviors (e.g., substance use) puts people at heightened risk for HIV infection, with mid-to-late adolescents at increasing risk (Leigh & Stall, 1993). Environmental and neurological reasons have been suggested for increased risk-taking among adolescents. First, family-level precursors such as parent-adolescent conflict have been significantly associated with and may pose risk for engaging in substance use and risk-taking (Duncan, Duncan, Biglan, & Ary, 1998). Thus, parent-adolescent conflict may be an important proximal influence on HIV risk behaviors (Lester et al., 2010; Rowe, Wang, Greenbaum, & Liddle, 2008). Yet, the temporal relation between parent-adolescent conflict and adolescent HIV risk-taking behaviors is still unknown. Second, at-risk adolescents may carry a neurobiological predisposition for engaging in trait-like expressions of disinhibited behavior and other risk-taking behaviors (Iacono, Malone, & McGue, 2008). When exposed to interpersonally stressful situations, their likelihood of engagement in HIV risk behaviors may increase. To investigate the role of parent-adolescent conflict in adolescent HIV risk-taking behaviors, 49 adolescents ages 14-17 and their parent were randomly assigned to complete a standardized discussion task to discuss a control topic or a conflict topic. Immediately after the discussion, adolescents completed a laboratory risk-taking measure. In a follow-up visit, eligible adolescents underwent electrophysiological (EEG) recording while completing a task designed to assess the presence of a neurobiological marker for behavioral disinhibition which I hypothesized would moderate the links between conflict and risk-taking. First, findings indicated that during the discussion task, adolescents in the conflict condition evidenced a significantly greater psychophysiological stress response relative to adolescents in the control condition. Second, a neurobiological marker of behavioral disinhibition moderated the relation between discussion condition and adolescent risk-taking, such that adolescents evidencing relatively high levels of a neurobiological marker related to sensation-seeking evidenced greater levels of risk-taking following the conflict condition, relative to the control condition. Lastly, I observed no significant relation between parent-adolescent conflict, the neurobiological marker of behavioral disinhibition and adolescent engagement in real-world risk-taking behavior.

Identifying and enhancing risk thresholds in the detection of elder financial abuse: A signal detection analysis of professionals' decision making

Background: Financial abuse of elders is an under acknowledged problem and professionals' judgements contribute to both the prevalence of abuse and the ability to prevent and intervene. In the absence of a definitive "gold standard" for the judgement, it is desirable to try and bring novice professionals' judgemental risk thresholds to the level of competent professionals as quickly and effectively as possible. This study aimed to test if a training intervention was able to bring novices' risk thresholds for financial abuse in line with expert opinion. Methods: A signal detection analysis, within a randomised controlled trial of an educational intervention, was undertaken to examine the effect on the ability of novices to efficiently detect financial abuse. Novices (n = 154) and experts (n = 33) judged "certainty of risk" across 43 scenarios; whether a scenario constituted a case of financial abuse or not was a function of expert opinion. Novices (n = 154) were randomised to receive either an on-line educational intervention to improve financial abuse detection (n = 78) or a control group (no on-line educational intervention, n = 76). Both groups examined 28 scenarios of abuse (11 "signal" scenarios of risk and 17 "noise" scenarios of no risk). After the intervention group had received the on-line training, both groups then examined 15 further scenarios (5 "signal" and 10 "noise" scenarios). Results: Experts were more certain than the novices, pre (Mean 70.61 vs. 58.04) and post intervention (Mean 70.84 vs. 63.04); and more consistent. The intervention group (mean 64.64) were more certain of abuse post-intervention than the control group (mean 61.41, p = 0.02). Signal detection analysis of sensitivity (Á) and bias (C) revealed that this was due to the intervention shifting the novices' tendency towards saying "at risk" (C post intervention -.34) and away from their pre intervention levels of bias (C-.12). Receiver operating curves revealed more efficient judgments in the intervention group. Conclusion: An educational intervention can improve judgements of financial abuse amongst novice professionals.

Gender, Behavioral Assessment of Negative Reinforcement Driven Risk Taking Propensity, and Cigarette Smoking

Cigarette smoking remains the leading preventable cause of death and disability in the United States and most often is initiated during adolescence. An emerging body of research suggests that a negative reinforcement model may explain factors that contribute to tobacco use during adolescence and that negative reinforcement processes may contribute to tobacco use to a greater extent among female adolescents than among male adolescents. However, the extant literature both on the relationship between negative reinforcement processes and adolescent tobacco use as well as on the relationship between gender, negative reinforcement processes, and adolescent tobacco use is limited by the sole reliance on self-report measures of negative reinforcement processes that may contribute to cigarette smoking. The current study aimed to further disentangle the relationships between negative reinforcement based risk taking, gender and tobacco use during older adolescence by utilizing a behavioral analogue measure of negative reinforcement based risk taking, the Maryland Resource for the Behavioral Utilization of the Reinforcement of Negative Stimuli (MRBURNS). Specifically, we examined the relationship between pumps on the MRBURNS, an indicator of risk taking, and smoking status as well as the interaction between MRBURNS pumps and gender for predicting smoking status. Participants included 103 older adolescents (n=51 smokers, 50.5% female, Age (M(SD) = 19.41(1.06)) who all attended one experimental session during which they completed the MRBURNS as well as self-report measures of tobacco use, nicotine dependence, alcohol use, depression, and anxiety. We utilized binary logistic regressions to examine the relationship between MRBURNS pumps and smoking status as well as the interactive effect of MRBURNS pumps and gender for predicting smoking status. Controlling for relevant covariates, pumps on the MRBURNS did not significantly predict smoking status and the interaction between pumps on the MRBURNS and gender also did not significantly predict smoking status. These findings highlight the importance of future research examining various task modifications to the MRBURNS as well as the need for replications of this study with larger, more diverse samples.

Behavioral traits predicting cocaine-conditioned place reference in mice: role of anxiety adn the basolateral amygdala

Aims. The individual susceptibility to cocaine addiction, a factor of interest in the understanding and prevention of this disorder, may be predicted by certain behavioral traits. However, these are not usually taken into account in research, making it difficult to identify whether they are a cause or a consequence of drug use. Methods. Male C57BL/6J mice underwent a battery of behavioral tests (elevated plus maze, hole-board, novelty preference in the Y maze, episodic-like object recognition memory and forced swimming test), followed by a cocaine-conditioned place preference (CPP) training to assess the reinforcing effect of the drug. In a second study, we aimed to determine the existence of neurobiological differences between the mice expressing high or low CPP by studying the number of neurons in certain addiction-related structures: the medial prefrontal cortex, the basolateral amygdala and the ventral tegmental area. Results. Anxiety-like behaviors in the elevated plus maze successfully predicted the cocaine-CPP behavior, so that the most anxious mice were also more likely to search for cocaine in a CPP paradigm. In addition, these mice exhibited an increased number of neurons in the basolateral amygdala, a key structure in emotional response including anxiety expression, without differences in the others regions analyzed. Conclusions. Our results suggest a relevant role of anxiety as a psychological risk factor for cocaine vulnerability, with the basolateral amygdala as potential common neural center for both anxiety and addiction.

The use of subclinical vascular markers of atherosclerosis in youth

The foundations for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in adults are laid in childhood and accelerated by the presence of comorbid conditions. Early detection of manifestations of cardiovascular pathology is an important clinical objective to identify those at risk for subsequent cardiovascular morbidity and events, and to initiate behavioral and medical interventions to reduce risk. Children were once considered to be at low risk, but with the growing health concerns related to lifestyle, cardiovascular screening may be needed earlier. Several noninvasive procedures are available to assess the cumulative effect of these exposures. These include carotid ultrasound, flow-mediated dilation, pulse wave velocity and measures left ventricular mass. This dissertation analyzes the comorbid conditions that increase cardiovascular risk in youth, namely obesity and low physical fitness, using carotid intima-media thickness to objectively detect early manifestations of cardiovascular pathology. Until recently researchers have not used surrogate markers of subclinical atherosclerosis to examine the role of a single bout of exercise. Utilizing the acute exercise model can be advantageous as it allows for an efficient manipulation of exercise variables and permits greater experimental control of confounding variables. It is possible that the effects of a bout of exercise can predict the effects of chronic exercise. We analyze the physiological factors pertinent to arterial stiffness using arterial distensibility and pulse wave velocity in the context of acute exercise in children and adults. In some instances, those who amend their trajectory by not maintaining risk factors into adulthood experience reductions in subclinical markers to levels associated with never having had the risk factor. Though avoidance of risk factors in youth is ideal, there is still a window for intervention where long-lasting cardiovascular effects might be avoided. In this dissertation we present preliminary findings linking modifiable youth risk factors to subclinical markers of CVD in adulthood.

SLOPE STABILITY ANALYSIS OF MOUNT MEAGER, SOUTH-WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA

The Mount Meager Volcanic Complex (MMVC) in south-western British Columbia is a potentially active, hydrothermally altered massif comprising a series of steep, glaciated peaks. Climatic conditions and glacial retreat has led to the further weathering, exposure and de-buttressing of steep slopes composed of weak, unconsolidated material. This has resulted in an increased frequency of landslide events over the past few decades, many of which have dammed the rivers bordering the Complex. The breach of these debris dams presents a risk of flooding to the downstream communities. Preliminary mapping showed there are numerous sites around the Complex where future failure could occur. Some of these areas are currently undergoing progressive slope movement and display features to support this such as anti-scarps and tension cracks. The effect of water infiltration on stability was modelled using the Rocscience program Slide 6.0. The main site of focus was Mount Meager in the south- east of the Complex where the most recent landslide took place. Two profiles through Mount Meager were analysed along with one other location in the northern section of the MMVC, where instability had been detected. The lowest Factor of Safety (FOS) for each profile was displayed and an estimate of the volume which could be generated was deduced. A hazard map showing the inundation zones for various volumes of debris flows was created from simulations using LAHARZ. Results showed the massif is unstable, even before infiltration. Varying the amount of infiltration appears to have no significant impact on the FOS annually implying that small changes of any kind could also trigger failure. Further modelling could be done to assess the impact of infiltration over shorter time scales. The Slide models show the volume of material that could be delivered to the Lillooet River Valley to be of the order of 109 m3 which, based on the LAHARZ simulations, would completely inundate the valley and communities downstream. A major hazard of this is that the removal of such a large amount of material has the potential to trigger an explosive eruption of the geothermal system and renew volcanic activity. Although events of this size are infrequent, there is a significant risk to the communities downstream of the complex.

DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF THE ANTERIOR CRUCIATE LIGAMENT INJURY-RISK-ESTIMATION QUIZ (ACL-IQ)

Over 2 million Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) injuries occur annually worldwide resulting in considerable economic and health burdens (e.g., suffering, surgery, loss of function, risk for re-injury, and osteoarthritis). Current screening methods are effective but they generally rely on expensive and time-consuming biomechanical movement analysis, and thus are impractical solutions. In this dissertation, I report on a series of studies that begins to investigate one potentially efficient alternative to biomechanical screening, namely skilled observational risk assessment (e.g., having experts estimate risk based on observations of athletes movements). Specifically, in Study 1 I discovered that ACL injury risk can be accurately and reliably estimated with nearly instantaneous visual inspection when observed by skilled and knowledgeable professionals. Modern psychometric optimization techniques were then used to develop a robust and efficient 5-item test of ACL injury risk prediction skill—i.e., the ACL Injury-Risk-Estimation Quiz or ACL-IQ. Study 2 cross-validated the results from Study 1 in a larger representative sample of both skilled (Exercise Science/Sports Medicine) and un-skilled (General Population) groups. In accord with research on human expertise, quantitative structural and process modeling of risk estimation indicated that superior performance was largely mediated by specific strategies and skills (e.g., ignoring irrelevant information), independent of domain general cognitive abilities (e.g., metal rotation, general decision skill). These cognitive models suggest that ACL-IQ is a trainable skill, providing a foundation for future research and applications in training, decision support, and ultimately clinical screening investigations. Overall, I present the first evidence that observational ACL injury risk prediction is possible including a robust technology for fast, accurate and reliable measurement—i.e., the ACL-IQ. Discussion focuses on applications and outreach including a web platform that was developed to house the test, provide a repository for further data collection, and increase public and professional awareness and outreach (www.ACL-IQ.org). Future directions and general applications of the skilled movement analysis approach are also discussed.

Gender Differences in the Influence of Protective Factors, Risk Factors, and Health Risk Behaviors on HIV Risk Behaviors Among Youth in South Florida

Adolescents engage in a range of risk behaviors during their transition from childhood to adulthood. Identifying and understanding interpersonal and socio-environmental factors that may influence risk-taking is imperative in order to meet the Healthy People 2020 goals of reducing the incidence of unintended pregnancies, HIV, and other sexually transmitted infections among youth. The purpose of this study was to investigate gender differences in the predictors of HIV risk behaviors among South Florida youth. More specifically, this study examined how protective factors, risk factors, and health risk behaviors, derived from a guiding framework using the Theory of Problem Behavior and Theory of Gender and Power, were associated with HIV risk behavior. A secondary analysis of 2009 Youth Risk Behavior Survey data sets from Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach school districts tested hypotheses for factors associated with HIV risk behaviors. The sample consisted of 5,869 high school students (mean age 16.1 years), with 69% identifying as Black or Hispanic. Logistic regression analyses revealed gender differences in the predictors of HIV risk behavior. An increase in the health risk behaviors was related to an increase in the odds that a student would engage in HIV risk behavior. An increase in risk factors was also found to significantly predict an increase in the odds of HIV risk behavior, but only in females. Also, the probability of participation in HIV risk behavior increased with grade level. Post-hoc analyses identified recent sexual activity (past 3 months) as the strongest predictor of condom nonuse and having four or more sexual partners for both genders. The strongest predictors of having sex under the influence of drugs/alcohol were alcohol use in both genders, marijuana use in females, and physical fighting in males. Gender differences in the predictors of unprotected sex, multiple sexual partners, and having sex under the influence were also found. Additional studies are warranted to understand the gender differences in predictors of HIV risk behavior among youth in order to better inform prevention programming and policy, as well as meet the national Healthy People 2020 goals.