A decision-analysis-based framework for analysing stakeholder behaviour in scenario planning

Scenario planning is a method widely used by strategic planners to address uncertainty about the future. However, current methods either fail to address the future behaviour and impact of stakeholders or they treat the role of stakeholders informally. We present a practical decision-analysis-based methodology for analysing stakeholder objectives and likely behaviour within contested unfolding futures. We address issues of power, interest, and commitment to achieve desired outcomes across a broad stakeholder constituency. Drawing on frameworks for corporate social responsibility (CSR), we provide an illustrative example of our approach to analyse a complex contested issue that crosses geographic, organisational and cultural boundaries. Whilst strategies can be developed by individual organisations that consider the interests of others – for example in consideration of an organisation's CSR agenda – we show that our augmentation of scenario method provides a further, nuanced, analysis of the power and objectives of all concerned stakeholders across a variety of unfolding futures. The resulting modelling framework is intended to yield insights and hence more informed decision making by individual stakeholders or regulators.

An empirical examination of the consequences of national pride: Analyses of survey and experimental data

National pride is both an important and understudied topic with respect to economic behaviour, hence this thesis investigates whether: 1) there is a "light" side of national pride through increased compliance, and a "dark" side linked to exclusion; 2) successful priming of national pride is linked to increased tax compliance; and 3) East German post-reunification outmigration is related to loyalty. The project comprises three related empirical studies, analysing evidence from a large, aggregated, international survey dataset; a tax compliance laboratory experiment combining psychological priming with measurement of heart rate variability; and data collected after the fall of the Berlin Wall (a situation approximating a natural experiment).

Pars pro toto: Experimental exhibition design and curatorial paradigms

'Pars pro toto: Experimental Exhibition Design and Curatorial Paradigms' is situated within the ongoing debate over the conflation of art and curating, and the subsequent tension between artistic autonomy and curatorial intervention. This practice-led research project acclimates these polarities using a collaborative and discursive curatorial methodology in the creation of two exhibitions. Both exhibitions, one digital and one primarily physical, investigated how the temporary exhibition can operate as a site for provocation, how the suggested methodology facilitates the relationship between artist and curator within this paradigm, and outlines factors that assist in expanding the definition of the contemporary curatorial role.

A 4D automatic simulation tool for construction resource planning: A case study

Purpose Traditional construction planning relies upon the critical path method (CPM) and bar charts. Both of these methods suffer from visualization and timing issues that could be addressed by 4D technology specifically geared to meet the needs of the construction industry. This paper proposed a new construction planning approach based on simulation by using a game engine. Design/methodology/approach A 4D automatic simulation tool was developed and a case study was carried out. The proposed tool was used to simulate and optimize the plans for the installation of a temporary platform for piling in a civil construction project in Hong Kong. The tool simulated the result of the construction process with three variables: 1) equipment, 2) site layout and 3) schedule. Through this, the construction team was able to repeatedly simulate a range of options. Findings The results indicate that the proposed approach can provide a user-friendly 4D simulation platform for the construction industry. The simulation can also identify the solution being sought by the construction team. The paper also identifies directions for further development of the 4D technology as an aid in construction planning and decision-making. Research limitations/implications The tests on the tool are limited to a single case study and further research is needed to test the use of game engines for construction planning in different construction projects to verify its effectiveness. Future research could also explore the use of alternative game engines and compare their performance and results. Originality/value The authors proposed the use of game engine to simulate the construction process based on resources, working space and construction schedule. The developed tool can be used by end-users without simulation experience.

Experimental studies of lipped channel beams subject to web crippling under ETF and ITF load cases

Lipped channel beams (LCBs) are commonly used as floor joists and bearers in buildings. However, they are subjected to specific failure modes such as web crippling. Despite considerable web crippling research, recent studies [1-6] have shown that the current web crippling design rules are unable to predict the test capacities under ETF and ITF load cases. In many instances, the predictions by the available design standards such as AISI S100, AS/NZS 4600 and Eurocode 3 Part 1-3 [7-9] are inconsistent. Hence thirty-six tests were conducted to assess the web crippling behaviour and strengths of LCBs under two flange load cases. Experimental web crippling capacities were then compared with the predictions from the current design rules. These comparisons showed that AS/NZS 4600 and AISI S100 design equations are very unconservative for LCB sections under ETF load case and are conservative for ITF load case. Hence improved equations were proposed to determine the web crippling capacities of LCBs. Suitable design rules were also developed using the direct strength method. This paper presents the details of this study and the results including improved design rules.

Planning, policy and you

The policy environment for regional natural resource management (NRM) has shifted considerably since it was first introduced in the early 2000s. This workshop will explore the impact of current policy on NRM planning and action through presentations and workshop discussion. To set the scene for the workshop discussion presentations will consider: 1) the impact of evolving national and state NRM policy in Australia; 2) how Australian NRM compares to other countries; 3) governance risks to NRM delivery; and 4) regional responses to NRM delivery. During the workshop element, participants from across regions will share their experiences and explore implications of current policy on the business of regional NRM.

A study of governance arrangements for land use and natural resource management planning in Cape York Peninsula

Complex intersecting social, economic and environmental dilemmas in Australia's Cape York Peninsula present a number of challenges for planners seeking to develop and implement land use and natural resource management (NRM) plans. There have been five different attempts at land use and NRM planning in Cape York Peninsula over the last 20 years. These processes have (to greater or lesser extents) failed to deliver community-owned and government-supported plans to guide development and/or the management of the region's natural resources. The region is remote, sparsely populated, and home to a significant Indigenous population. Much of the contestation within the region surrounds the access, use and ownership of the region's internationally valuable natural resources. This paper reviews, from the literature, the relevancy and applicability of criteria for best practice planning and governance. A range of identified best practice governance and planning principles are applied to assess the governance arrangements for planning in the Peninsula. The paper finds that decision-making arrangements for land use and NRM planning in the Peninsula are still in their infancy and are inadequate to support effective outcomes. The paper concludes that broader attention to best practice principles in governance for planning is needed to improve planning outcomes.

Peer mentoring for radiotherapy planning skills development: A pilot study

Introduction: This study aimed to determine the potential role and guidelines for implementation of skill-based peer mentoring for radiotherapy planning education. Methods: After four weekly mentoring sessions, both Year 3 mentors (n=9) and Year 2 mentees (n=9) were invited to complete a short online questionnaire relating to the impact of the initiative. The tool contained a mixture of Likert-style questions concerning student enjoyment and perceived usefulness of the initiative as well as more qualitative open questions that gathered perceptions of the peer mentoring process, implementation methods and potential future scope. Results: Several key discussion themes related to benefits to each stakeholder group, challenges arising, improvements and potential future directions. There were high levels of enjoyment and perceived value of the mentoring from both sides with 100% of the 18 respondents enjoying the experience. The informal format encouraged further learning, while mentors reported acquisition of valuable skills and gains in knowledge. Conclusions: Peer mentoring has a valuable and enjoyable role to play in radiotherapy planning training and helps consolidate theoretical understanding for experienced students. An informal approach allows for students to adopt the most appropriate mentoring model for their needs while providing them with a free space to engender additional discussion.

Soluble mediators in platelet concentrates modulate dendritic cell inflammatory responses in an experimental model of transfusion

The transfusion of platelet concentrates (PCs) is widely used to treat thrombocytopenia and severe trauma. Ex vivo storage of PCs is associated with a storage lesion characterized by partial platelet activation and the release of soluble mediators, such as soluble CD40 ligand (sCD40L), RANTES, and interleukin (IL)-8. An in vitro whole blood culture transfusion model was employed to assess whether mediators present in PC supernatants (PC-SNs) modulated dendritic cell (DC)-specific inflammatory responses (intracellular staining) and the overall inflammatory response (cytometric bead array). Lipopolysaccharide (LPS) was included in parallel cultures to model the impact of PC-SNs on cell responses following toll-like receptor-mediated pathogen recognition. The impact of both the PC dose (10%, 25%) and ex vivo storage period was investigated [day 2 (D2), day 5 (D5), day 7 (D7)]. PC-SNs alone had minimal impact on DC-specific inflammatory responses and the overall inflammatory response. However, in the presence of LPS, exposure to PC-SNs resulted in a significant dose associated suppression of the production of DC IL-12, IL-6, IL-1a, tumor necrosis factor-a (TNF-a), and macrophage inflammatory protein (MIP)-1b and storage-associated suppression of the production of DC IL-10, TNF-a, and IL-8. For the overall inflammatory response, IL-6, TNF-a, MIP-1a, MIP-1b, and inflammatory protein (IP)-10 were significantly suppressed and IL-8, IL-10, and IL-1b significantly increased following exposure to PC-SNs in the presence of LPS. These data suggest that soluble mediators present in PCs significantly suppress DC function and modulate the overall inflammatory response, particularly in the presence of an infectious stimulus. Given the central role of DCs in the initiation and regulation of the immune response, these results suggest that modulation of the DC inflammatory profile is a probable mechanism contributing to transfusion-related complications.

Patriotism’s impact on cooperation with the state: An experimental study on tax compliance

Although it seems reasonable to assume that activating patriotism might motivate citizens to cooperate with the state in reaching societal goals, the empirical evidence supporting this contention is based mostly on correlational rather than experimental studies. In addition, little is known on whether patriotism can be manipulated without simultaneously triggering nationalism and on the psychological processes which determine the patriotism-cooperation relation. This current article reports results of one survey and three experiments that manipulate patriotism by displaying either a national flag or national landscapes or by priming national achievements. The outcomes indicate that reported and manipulated patriotism indirectly increase tax compliance, although the national flag also increases nationalism. National achievements, on the other hand, seemingly increases trust in national public institutions and the voluntary motivation to cooperate, whereas national landscapes only increase the voluntary motivation to cooperate. Hence, it is possible to increase social capital in the form of trust and cooperation through patriotism without fostering nationalism as well.

A novel experimental method to assess industrial aerosol deposition in idealized porous channels

A novel and economical experimental technique has been developed to assess industrial aerosol deposition in various idealized porous channel configurations. This judicious examination on aerosol penetration in porous channels will assist engineers to better optimize designs for various engineering applications. Deposition patterns differ with porosity due to geometric configurations of the channel and superficial inlet velocities. Interestingly, it is found that two configurations of similar porosity exhibit significantly higher deposition fractions. Inertial impaction is profound at the leading edge of all obstacles, whereas particle build-up is observed at the trailing edge of the obstructions. A qualitative analysis shows that the numerical results are in good agreement with experimental results.

Populations of models, experimental designs and coverage of parameter space by Latin Hypercube and Orthogonal Sampling

In this paper we have used simulations to make a conjecture about the coverage of a t-dimensional subspace of a d-dimensional parameter space of size n when performing k trials of Latin Hypercube sampling. This takes the form P(k,n,d,t) = 1 - e^(-k/n^(t-1)). We suggest that this coverage formula is independent of d and this allows us to make connections between building Populations of Models and Experimental Designs. We also show that Orthogonal sampling is superior to Latin Hypercube sampling in terms of allowing a more uniform coverage of the t-dimensional subspace at the sub-block size level. These ideas have particular relevance when attempting to perform uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analyses.

Ratcheting and wear behavior of Australian rail steel: Experimental investigation of material properties and sampling method

To The ratcheting behavior of high-strength rail steel (Australian Standard AS1085.1) is studied in this work for the purpose of predicting wear and damage to the rail surface. Historically, researchers have used circular test coupons obtained from the rail head to conduct cyclic load tests, but according to hardness profile data, considerable variation exists across the rail head section. For example, the induction-hardened rail (AS1085.1) shows high hardness (400-430 HV100) up to four-millimeters into the rail head’s surface, but then drops considerably beyond that. Given that cyclic test coupons five millimeters in diameter at the gauge area are usually taken from the rail sample, there is a high probability that the original surface properties of the rail do not apply across the entire test coupon and, therefore, data representing only average material properties are obtained. In the literature, disks (47 mm in diameter) for a twin-disk rolling contact test machine have been obtained directly from the rail sample and used to validate rolling contact fatigue wear models. The question arises: How accurate are such predictions? In this research paper, the effect of rail sampling position on the ratcheting behavior of AS1085.1 rail steel was investigated using rectangular shaped specimens. Uniaxial stress-controlled tests were conducted with samples obtained at four different depths to observe the ratcheting behaviour of each. Micro-hardness measurements of the test coupons were carried out to obtain a constitutive relationship to predict the effect of depth on the ratcheting behaviour of the rail material. This work ultimately assists the selection of valid material parameters for constitutive models in the study of rail surface ratcheting.

Experimental investigation of wear modes of hardened rail material used in Australian heavy-haul railways

This work investigates the effects of contact pressure and geometry in rolling-contact wear tests by using discs with different radii of curvature to simulate the varying contact conditions that may be typically found in the field. The tests were conducted without any significant amount of traction, but micro slip was still observed due to contact deformation. Moreover, variation of contact pressure was observed due to contact patch elongation and diameter reduction. Rolling contact fatigue, adhesive and sliding wear were observed on the curved contact interface. The development of different wear regimes and material removal phenomena were analyzed using microscopic images in order to broaden the understanding of the wear mechanisms occurring in the rail-wheel contact.