Sequential decision making with partially ordered preferences

This paper presents new insights and novel algorithms for strategy selection in sequential decision making with partially ordered preferences; that is, where some strategies may be incomparable with respect to expected utility. We assume that incomparability amongst strategies is caused by indeterminacy/imprecision in probability values. We investigate six criteria for consequentialist strategy selection: Gamma-Maximin, Gamma-Maximax, Gamma-Maximix, Interval Dominance, Maximality and E-admissibility. We focus on the popular decision tree and influence diagram representations. Algorithms resort to linear/multilinear programming; we describe implementation and experiments. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of the essential work of fracture method in ranking the performance in service of high-density polyethylene resins employed in pressure pipes

High-density polyethylene resins have increasingly been used in the production of pipes for water- and gas-pressurized distribution systems and are expected to remain in service for several years, but they eventually fail prematurely by creep fracture. Usual standard methods used to rank resins in terms of their resistance to fracture are expensive and non-practical for quality control purposes, justifying the search for alternative methods. Essential work of fracture (EWF) method provides a relatively simple procedure to characterize the fracture behavior of ductile polymers, such as polyethylene resins. In the present work, six resins were analyzed using the EWF methodology. The results show that the plastic work dissipation factor, beta w(p), is the most reliable parameter to evaluate the performance. Attention must be given to specimen preparation that might result in excessive dispersion in the results, especially for the essential work of fracture w(e).

Microstructure and texture of duplex stainless steel after melt-spinning processing

The microstructure and texture of melt-spun UNS S31803 (DIN W. Nr. 1. 4462) duplex stainless steel were analyzed after casting and solution treatment. The cast ribbons contained austenite (gamma) and ferrite (alpha or delta) with roughly equal compositions. The alpha and gamma had < 100 > and < 110 > partial fiber textures, respectively. After solution treatment, the texture was maintained, the amount of gamma phase increased, and the alloying elements were partitioned as expected, according to whether they were ferrite or austenite stabilizers. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Microstructure and texture assessment of Al-Mn-Fe-Si (3003) aluminum alloy produced by continuous and semicontinuous casting processes

Aluminum sheets are currently produced by the direct-chill process (DC). The need for low-cost aluminum sheets is a challenge for the development of new materials produced by the twin roll caster (TRC) process. It is expected that sheets produced from these different casting procedures will differ in their microstructure. These differences in microstructure and in the crystallographic texture have great impact on sheet mechanical properties and formability. The present study investigated microstructure and evaluated texture of two strips of Al-Mn-Fe-Si (3003) aluminum alloy produced by TRC and by hot-rolling processes. It was possible to notice that the microstructure, morphology, and grain size of the TRC sample were more homogenous than those found in hot-rolled samples. Both strips, obtained by the two processes, showed strong texture gradient across the thickness.

Interface excess and polymorphic stability of nanosized zirconia-magnesia

Controlling the phase stability of ZrO2 nanoparticles is of major importance in the development of new ZrO2-based nanotechnologies. Because of the fact that in nanoparticles the surface accounts for a larger fraction of the total atoms, the relative phase stability can be controlled throughout the surface composition, which can be toned by surface excess of one of the components of the system., The objective of this work is to delineate a relationship between surface excess (or solid solution) of MgO relative to ZrO2 and the polymorphic stability of (ZrO2)(1-x) - (MgO), nanopowders, where 0.0 <= x <= 0.6. The nanopowders were prepared by a liquid precursor method at 500 degrees C and characterized by N-2 adsorption (BET), X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-Ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and Raman spectroscopy. For pure ZrO2 samples, both tetragonal and monoclinic polymorphs were detected, as expected considering the literature. For MgO molar fractions varying from 0.05 to 0.10, extensive solid solution could not be detected, and a ZrO2 surface energy reduction, caused by Mg surface excess detected by XPS, promoted tetragonal polymorph thermodynamic stabilization with relation to monoclinic. For MgO molar fractions higher than 0.10 and up to 0.40, Mg solid solution could be detected and induced cubic phase stabilization. MgO periclase was observed only at x = 0.6. A discussion based on the relationship between the surface excess, surface energy, and polymorph stability is presented.

Thermodynamics of aqueous solutions of polyelectrolytes: Experimental results for the activity of water in aqueous solutions of (a single synthetic polyelectrolyte and sodium chloride)

Experimental results for the activity of water in aqueous solutions of 10 single, synthetic polyelectrolytes (polysodium acrylate, polysodium methacrylate, polyammonium acrylate, polysodium ethylene sulfonate, and polysodium styrene sulfonate) and sodium chloride at 298.2 K are presented. The experimental work was performed by applying the isopiestic method with sodium chloride as a reference substance. As expected, the activity of water decreases when the concentration of a polyelectrolyte and/or sodium chloride increases. At constant concentration of a polyelectrolyte and sodium chloride, the activity of water depends on the monomer unit and the molecular mass of the polyelectrolyte. The new data are to be used in future work to develop and test models for the Gibbs excess energy of aqueous solutions of polyelectrolytes.

THE VANISHING DISCOUNT APPROACH FOR THE AVERAGE CONTINUOUS CONTROL OF PIECEWISE DETERMINISTIC MARKOV PROCESSES

This work is concerned with the existence of an optimal control strategy for the long-run average continuous control problem of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs). In Costa and Dufour (2008), sufficient conditions were derived to ensure the existence of an optimal control by using the vanishing discount approach. These conditions were mainly expressed in terms of the relative difference of the alpha-discount value functions. The main goal of this paper is to derive tractable conditions directly related to the primitive data of the PDMP to ensure the existence of an optimal control. The present work can be seen as a continuation of the results derived in Costa and Dufour (2008). Our main assumptions are written in terms of some integro-differential inequalities related to the so-called expected growth condition, and geometric convergence of the post-jump location kernel associated to the PDMP. An example based on the capacity expansion problem is presented, illustrating the possible applications of the results developed in the paper.

On the Filtering Problem for Continuous-Time Markov Jump Linear Systems with no Observation of the Markov Chain

We consider in this paper the optimal stationary dynamic linear filtering problem for continuous-time linear systems subject to Markovian jumps in the parameters (LSMJP) and additive noise (Wiener process). It is assumed that only an output of the system is available and therefore the values of the jump parameter are not accessible. It is a well known fact that in this setting the optimal nonlinear filter is infinite dimensional, which makes the linear filtering a natural numerically, treatable choice. The goal is to design a dynamic linear filter such that the closed loop system is mean square stable and minimizes the stationary expected value of the mean square estimation error. It is shown that an explicit analytical solution to this optimal filtering problem is obtained from the stationary solution associated to a certain Riccati equation. It is also shown that the problem can be formulated using a linear matrix inequalities (LMI) approach, which can be extended to consider convex polytopic uncertainties on the parameters of the possible modes of operation of the system and on the transition rate matrix of the Markov process. As far as the authors are aware of this is the first time that this stationary filtering problem (exact and robust versions) for LSMJP with no knowledge of the Markov jump parameters is considered in the literature. Finally, we illustrate the results with an example.

Singular Perturbation for the Discounted Continuous Control of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes

This paper deals with the expected discounted continuous control of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP`s) using a singular perturbation approach for dealing with rapidly oscillating parameters. The state space of the PDMP is written as the product of a finite set and a subset of the Euclidean space a""e (n) . The discrete part of the state, called the regime, characterizes the mode of operation of the physical system under consideration, and is supposed to have a fast (associated to a small parameter epsilon > 0) and a slow behavior. By using a similar approach as developed in Yin and Zhang (Continuous-Time Markov Chains and Applications: A Singular Perturbation Approach, Applications of Mathematics, vol. 37, Springer, New York, 1998, Chaps. 1 and 3) the idea in this paper is to reduce the number of regimes by considering an averaged model in which the regimes within the same class are aggregated through the quasi-stationary distribution so that the different states in this class are replaced by a single one. The main goal is to show that the value function of the control problem for the system driven by the perturbed Markov chain converges to the value function of this limit control problem as epsilon goes to zero. This convergence is obtained by, roughly speaking, showing that the infimum and supremum limits of the value functions satisfy two optimality inequalities as epsilon goes to zero. This enables us to show the result by invoking a uniqueness argument, without needing any kind of Lipschitz continuity condition.

Measuring the eco-efficiency of cement use

At present, the cement industry generates approximately 5% of the world`s anthropogenic CO(2) emissions. This share is expected to increase since demand for cement based products is forecast to multiply by a factor of 2.5 within the next 40 years and the traditional strategies to mitigate emissions, focused on the production of cement, will not be capable of compensating such growth. Therefore, additional mitigation strategies are needed, including an increase in the efficiency of cement use. This paper proposes indicators for measuring cement use efficiency, presents a benchmark based on literature data and discusses potential gains in efficiency. The binder intensity (bi) index measures the amount of binder (kg m(-3)) necessary to deliver 1 MPa of mechanical strength, and consequently express the efficiency of using binder materials. The CO(2) intensity index (ci) allows estimating the global warming potential of concrete formulations. Research benchmarks show that bi similar to 5 kg m(-3) MPa(-1) are feasible and have already been achieved for concretes >50 MPa. However, concretes with lower compressive strengths have binder intensities varying between 10 and 20 kg m(-3) MPa(-1). These values can be a result of the minimum cement content established in many standards and reveal a significant potential for performance gains. In addition, combinations of low bi and ci are shown to be feasible. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Reverberation to Improve Range and Elevation Discrimination for Small Array Sound Source Localization

Sound source localization (SSL) is an essential task in many applications involving speech capture and enhancement. As such, speaker localization with microphone arrays has received significant research attention. Nevertheless, existing SSL algorithms for small arrays still have two significant limitations: lack of range resolution, and accuracy degradation with increasing reverberation. The latter is natural and expected, given that strong reflections can have amplitudes similar to that of the direct signal, but different directions of arrival. Therefore, correctly modeling the room and compensating for the reflections should reduce the degradation due to reverberation. In this paper, we show a stronger result. If modeled correctly, early reflections can be used to provide more information about the source location than would have been available in an anechoic scenario. The modeling not only compensates for the reverberation, but also significantly increases resolution for range and elevation. Thus, we show that under certain conditions and limitations, reverberation can be used to improve SSL performance. Prior attempts to compensate for reverberation tried to model the room impulse response (RIR). However, RIRs change quickly with speaker position, and are nearly impossible to track accurately. Instead, we build a 3-D model of the room, which we use to predict early reflections, which are then incorporated into the SSL estimation. Simulation results with real and synthetic data show that even a simplistic room model is sufficient to produce significant improvements in range and elevation estimation, tasks which would be very difficult when relying only on direct path signal components.

Economic design of an X chart for short-run production

The aim of this paper is to present an economical design of an X chart for a short-run production. The process mean starts equal to mu(0) (in-control, State I) and in a random time it shifts to mu(1) > mu(0) (out-of-control, State II). The monitoring procedure consists of inspecting a single item at every m produced ones. If the measurement of the quality characteristic does not meet the control limits, the process is stopped, adjusted, and additional (r - 1) items are inspected retrospectively. The probabilistic model was developed considering only shifts in the process mean. A direct search technique is applied to find the optimum parameters which minimizes the expected cost function. Numerical examples illustrate the proposed procedure. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution with application to failure data

For the first time, we introduce and study some mathematical properties of the Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution that is a quite flexible model in analyzing positive data. It contains as special sub-models the exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated Rayleigh, exponentiated exponential, Weibull and also the new Kumaraswamy exponential distribution. We provide explicit expressions for the moments and moment generating function. We examine the asymptotic distributions of the extreme values. Explicit expressions are derived for the mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, reliability and Renyi entropy. The moments of the order statistics are calculated. We also discuss the estimation of the parameters by maximum likelihood. We obtain the expected information matrix. We provide applications involving two real data sets on failure times. Finally, some multivariate generalizations of the Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution are discussed. (C) 2010 The Franklin Institute. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New Analytic Solution Related to the Richards, Philip, and Green-Ampt Equations for Infiltration

Based on physical laws of similarity, an analytic solution of the soil water potential form of the Richards equation was derived for water infiltration into a homogeneous sand. The derivation assumes a similarity between the soil water retention function and that of the soil water content profiles taken at fixed times. The new solution successfully described soil water content profiles experimentally measured for water infiltrating downward, upward, and horizontally into a homogeneous sand and agrees with that presented by Philip in 1957. The utility of this analysis is still to be verified, but it is expected to hold for soils that have a narrow pore-size distribution before wetting and that manifest a sharp increase of water content at the wetting front during infiltration. The effect of van Genuchten`s parameters alpha and n on the application of the solution to other porous media was investigated. The solution also improves and provides a more realistic description of the infiltration process than that pioneered by Green and Ampt in 1911.

On the use of correlated beta random variables with animal population modelling

We give reasons why demographic parameters such as survival and reproduction rates are often modelled well in stochastic population simulation using beta distributions. In practice, it is frequently expected that these parameters will be correlated, for example with survival rates for all age classes tending to be high or low in the same year. We therefore discuss a method for producing correlated beta random variables by transforming correlated normal random variables, and show how it can be applied in practice by means of a simple example. We also note how the same approach can be used to produce correlated uniform triangular, and exponential random variables. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.