Incomplete information games of conflict and collective action

My thesis consists of three essays that investigate strategic interactions between individuals engaging in risky collective action in uncertain environments. The first essay analyzes a broad class of incomplete information coordination games with a wide range of applications in economics and politics. The second essay draws from the general model developed in the first essay to study decisions by individuals of whether to engage in protest/revolution/coup/strike. The final essay explicitly integrates state response to the analysis. The first essay, Coordination Games with Strategic Delegation of Pivotality, exhaustively analyzes a class of binary action, two-player coordination games in which players receive stochastic payoffs only if both players take a ``stochastic-coordination action''. Players receive conditionally-independent noisy private signals about the normally distributed stochastic payoffs. With this structure, each player can exploit the information contained in the other player's action only when he takes the “pivotalizing action”. This feature has two consequences: (1) When the fear of miscoordination is not too large, in order to utilize the other player's information, each player takes the “pivotalizing action” more often than he would based solely on his private information, and (2) best responses feature both strategic complementarities and strategic substitutes, implying that the game is not supermodular nor a typical global game. This class of games has applications in a wide range of economic and political phenomena, including war and peace, protest/revolution/coup/ strike, interest groups lobbying, international trade, and adoption of a new technology. My second essay, Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs, studies the decision problem of citizens who must decide whether to submit to the status quo or mount a revolution. If they coordinate, they can overthrow the status quo. Otherwise, the status quo is preserved and participants in a failed revolution are punished. Citizens face two types of uncertainty. (a) non-strategic: they are uncertain about the relative payoffs of the status quo and revolution, (b) strategic: they are uncertain about each other's assessments of the relative payoff. I draw on the existing literature and historical evidence to argue that the uncertainty in the payoffs of status quo and revolution is intrinsic in politics. Several counter-intuitive findings emerge: (1) Better communication between citizens can lower the likelihood of revolution. In fact, when the punishment for failed protest is not too harsh and citizens' private knowledge is accurate, then further communication reduces incentives to revolt. (2) Increasing strategic uncertainty can increase the likelihood of revolution attempts, and even the likelihood of successful revolution. In particular, revolt may be more likely when citizens privately obtain information than when they receive information from a common media source. (3) Two dilemmas arise concerning the intensity and frequency of punishment (repression), and the frequency of protest. Punishment Dilemma 1: harsher punishments may increase the probability that punishment is materialized. That is, as the state increases the punishment for dissent, it might also have to punish more dissidents. It is only when the punishment is sufficiently harsh, that harsher punishment reduces the frequency of its application. Punishment Dilemma 1 leads to Punishment Dilemma 2: the frequencies of repression and protest can be positively or negatively correlated depending on the intensity of repression. My third essay, The Repression Puzzle, investigates the relationship between the intensity of grievances and the likelihood of repression. First, I make the observation that the occurrence of state repression is a puzzle. If repression is to succeed, dissidents should not rebel. If it is to fail, the state should concede in order to save the costs of unsuccessful repression. I then propose an explanation for the “repression puzzle” that hinges on information asymmetries between the state and dissidents about the costs of repression to the state, and hence the likelihood of its application by the state. I present a formal model that combines the insights of grievance-based and political process theories to investigate the consequences of this information asymmetry for the dissidents' contentious actions and for the relationship between the magnitude of grievances (formulated here as the extent of inequality) and the likelihood of repression. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this relationship is non-monotone. That is, as the magnitude of grievances increases, the likelihood of repression might decrease. I investigate the relationship between inequality and the likelihood of repression in all country-years from 1981 to 1999. To mitigate specification problem, I estimate the probability of repression using a generalized additive model with thin-plate splines (GAM-TPS). This technique allows for flexible relationship between inequality, the proxy for the costs of repression and revolutions (income per capita), and the likelihood of repression. The empirical evidence support my prediction that the relationship between the magnitude of grievances and the likelihood of repression is non-monotone.

Autoritarismes étatiques et régulation religieuse du politique en République démocratique du Congo : analyse discursive de la parole épiscopale catholique sur les élections (1990-2015)

Centrée essentiellement autour de la parole épiscopale congolaise, la présente recherche porte sur les articulations de la religion et du politique dans une perspective limitée au catholicisme en RDC. En prenant pour base empirique la ville de Kinshasa, elle thématise les effets des dynamiques religieuses sur les fermentations sociales et les changements politiques dans un contexte d’autoritarisme. Celui-ci est, dans ce travail, problématisé comme le fait conjoint de l’institution étatique et de l’organisation religieuse catholique. Le choix de cette approche relationnelle basée sur les interactions entre religion et politique, permet d’inscrire ce travail dans le champ d’études des sciences des religions. L’approche retenue s’appuie également sur les avancées de la sociologie politique et éclaire la régulation religieuse du politique, rarement étudiée par les sciences humaines. Cette recherche s’inscrit donc à l’intersection entre l’histoire, la sociologie, les sciences politiques, l’anthropologie, l’analyse du discours, la philosophie et la théologie. Sa thèse centrale est organisée autour d’une question principale : comment la religion participe-t-elle à la régulation du politique dans le contexte d’autoritarisme caractéristique de la RDC ? La réponse à cette question croise l’approche fonctionnelle de la religion et l’analyse des déclarations institutionnelles de l’épiscopat congolais. Elle esquisse les relations entre, d’une part, contextes et événements sociopolitiques et d’autre part, discours et pratiques religieuses. Elle construit la scène religieuse à partir de la trajectoire sociopolitique, économique et culturelle de la RDC entre 1990 et 2015, sous les Présidents J.-D. Mobutu, L.-D. Kabila et J. Kabila. Elle étudie l'offre normative de sens de leurs éminences J.-A. Malula, F. Etsou et L. Monsengwo. L’analyse de la rhétorique de l’épiscopat sur les élections vérifie la plausibilité sociale et l’efficience politique de la parole épiscopale congolaise. Elle se ressource dans la pragmatique de la communication telle que mise en œuvre dans l’analyse argumentative du discours de R. Amossy et dans celle du discours politique de P. Charaudeau. En mettant la focale sur l’objet linguistique « vérité des urnes », la recherche pose au niveau normatif, juridique et éthique, le problème de l’institutionnalisation d’un État de droit en RDC. Les élaborations sur ce dernier niveau s’articulent autour de l’inscription de l’éthique dans l’agir politique. L’examen des modes conventionnels d’action des chrétiens (élections de 2006 et 2011) et non conventionnels (marche des chrétiens de 1992 et 2012) conduit à éclairer les modes de reproduction ou de contestation de l’autoritarisme étatique par l’organisation religieuse. Il permet de promouvoir une démocratie des valeurs et d’action adossée à la parrhêsia. L’introduction de l’aléthique dans la vie publique donne à voir la parole épiscopale congolaise comme un discours ethopoïétique. C’est sur ce point précis que les élaborations de M. Foucault sur la parrhêsia aident à thématiser la capacité de la religion à informer et à influencer la démocratisation de la RDC. De là, la requête formulée pour un nouveau système d’action institutionnelle de l’organisation religieuse, susceptible de promouvoir le courage de la vérité en situation autoritaire. Cette innovation permet de tenir ensemble les valeurs démocratiques et les valeurs de l’Évangile, en les corrélant à la cohérence axiologique, à la probité morale et à l’intégrité existentielle des protagonistes de la démocratisation de la RDC.

Proposal for bioethics education in Animal Ethics

This study proposes the continuous bioethics education in university health and biology courses. A field study was conducted with matriculating students at a university in southern Brazil about the ethics and legal questions regarding the use of animals in research and teaching. It was found that almost half of the students were unaware of important animal ethics issues, showing that these themes are merely incipient in the education provided within this particular university. Considering this reality, the inclusion of bioethics only as a discipline and isolated from the formal curriculum has not been effective and that bioethics education, incorporating polemic subjects such as animal ethics, should be included in an all-encompassing and constant approach throughout the training of students in biomedical fields.

A critical and interpretative investigation of the ethical dimension of policies about school digital technologies

This thesis examines digital technologies policies designed for Australian schools and the ways they are understood and interpreted by students, school staff, teachers, principals and policy writers. This study explores the ways these research participant groups interpret and understand the ‘ethical dimension’ of schools’ digital technologies policies for teaching and learning. In this thesis the ethical dimension is considered to be a dynamic concept which encompasses various elements including; decisions, actions, values, issues, debates, education, discourses, and notions of right and wrong, in relation to ethics and uses of digital technologies in schools. In this study policy is taken to mean not only written texts but discursive processes, policy documents including national declarations, strategic plans and ‘acceptable use’ policies to guide the use of digital technologies in schools. The research is situated in the context of changes that have occurred in Australia and internationally over the last decade that have seen a greater focus on the access to and use of digital technologies in schools. In Australian school education, the attention placed on digital technologies in schools has seen the release of policies at the national, state, territory, education office and school levels, to guide their use. Prominent among these policies has been the Digital Education Revolution policy, launched in 2007 and concluded in 2013. This research aims to answers the question: What does an investigation reveal about understandings of the ethical dimension of digital technologies policies and their implementation in school education? The objective of this research is to examine the ethical dimension of digital technologies policies and to interpret and understand the responses of the research participants to the issues, silences, discourses and language, which characterise this dimension. In doing so, it is intended that the research can allow the participants to have a voice that, may be different to the official discourses located in digital technologies policies. The thesis takes a critical and interpretative approach to policies and examines the role of digital technologies policies as discourse. Interpretative theory is utilised as it provides a conceptual lens from which to interpret different perspectives and the implications of these in the construction of meaning in relation to schools’ digital technologies policies. Critical theory is used in tandem with interpretative theory as it represents a conceptual basis from which to critique and question underlying assumptions and discourses that are associated with the ethical dimension of schools’ digital technologies policies. The research methods used are semi-structured interviews and policy document analysis. Policies from the national, state, territory, education office and school level were analysed and contribute to understanding the way the ethical dimension of digital technologies policies is represented as a discourse. Students, school staff, teachers, principals and policy writers participated in research interviews and their views and perspectives were canvassed in relation to the ethical use of digital technologies and the policies that are designed to regulate their use. The thesis presents an argument that the ethical dimension of schools’ digital technologies policies and use is an under-researched area, and there are gaps in understanding and knowledge in the literature which remain to be addressed. It is envisaged that the thesis can make a meaningful contribution to understand the ways in which schools’ digital technologies policies are understood in school contexts. It is also envisaged that the findings from the research can inform policy development by analysing the voices and views of those in schools. The findings of the policy analysis revealed that there is little attention given to the ethical dimension in digital technologies at the national level. A discourse of compliance and control pervades digital technologies policies from the state, education office and school levels, which reduces ethical considerations to technical, legal and regulatory requirements. The discourse is largely instrumentalist and neglects the educative dimension of digital technologies which has the capacity to engender their ethical use. The findings from the interview conversations revealed that students, school staff and teachers perceive digital technologies policies to be difficult to understand, and not relevant to their situation and needs. They also expressed a desire to have greater consultation and participation in the formation and enactment of digital technologies policies, and they believe they are marginalised from these processes in their schools. Arising from the analysis of the policies and interview conversations, an argument is presented that in the light of the prominent role played by digital technologies and their potential for enhancing all aspects of school education, more research is required to provide a more holistic and richer understanding of the policies that are constructed to control and mediate their use.

The Demobilized Body: Transgressions of Personal Space and Political Participation

Grounded in the intersection between gender politics and electoral studies, this dissertation examines the demobilizing effects of violations of personal space (in the form of domestic violence, control over mobility, emotional abuse, and sexual harassment) on the propensity to vote. Using quantitative methods across four survey datasets concerning Lebanon, the United States, Morocco, and Yemen, this research concludes that cross-regionally, familial control over mobility reduces the propensity to vote among women. Conversely, mechanisms of empowerment such as education and employment increase the propensity to vote.

States' Responding Behavior in Conflict: Asymmetric Response and Strategic Conflict Avoidance

State responses to external threats and aggression are studied with focus on two different rationales: (1) to make credible deterrent threats to avoid being exploited, and (2) to minimize the risk of escalation to unwanted war. Given external aggression, the target state's responding behavior has three possibilities: concession (under-response), reciprocation, and escalation. This study focuses on the first two possibilities and investigates how the strategic nature of crisis interaction can explain the intentional choice of concession or avoidance of retaliation. I build a two-level bargaining model that accounts for the domestic bargaining situation between the leader and the challenger for each state. The model's equilibrium shows that the responding behavior is determined not only by inter-state level variables (e.g. balance of power between two states, or cost of war that each state is supposed to pay), but also the domestic variables of both states. Next, the strategic interaction is rationally explained by the model: as the responding state believes that the initiating state has strong domestic challenges and, hence, the aggression is believed to be initiated for domestic political purposes (a rally-around-the-flag effect), the response tends to decrease. The concession is also predicted if the target state leader has strong bargaining power against her domestic challengers \emph{and} she believes that the initiating leader suffers from weak domestic standing. To test the model's prediction, I conduct a lab experiment and case studies. The experimental result shows that under an incentivized bargaining situation, individual actors are observed to react to hostile action as the model predicts: if the opponent is believed to suffer from internally driven difficulties, the subject will not punish hostile behavior of the other player as severely as she would without such a belief. The experiment also provides supporting evidence for the choice of concession: when the player finds herself in a favorable situation while the other has disadvantages, the player is more likely to make concessions in the controlled dictator game. Two cases are examined to discuss how the model can explain the choice of either reciprocation or concession. From personal interviews and fieldwork in South Korea, I find that South Korea's reciprocating behavior during the 2010 Yeonpyeong Island incident is explained by a combination of `low domestic power of initiating leader (Kim Jong-il)' and `low domestic power of responding leader (Lee Myung-bak).' On the other hand, the case of EC-121 is understood as a non-response or concession outcome. Declassified documents show that Nixon and his key advisors interpreted the attack as a result of North Korea's domestic political instabilities (low domestic power of initiating leader) and that Nixon did not have difficulties at domestic politics during the first few months of his presidency (high domestic power of responding leader).

REFUGEES AND RESETTLEMENT: A QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF REFUGEE INTEGRATION THROUGH SOCIAL & SUPPORT SERVICES

This dissertation studies refugee resettlement in the United States utilizing the Integration Indicator’s framework developed by Ager and Strang for the U.S. context. The study highlights the U.S. refugee admissions program and the policies in the states of Maryland and Massachusetts while analyzing the service delivery models and its effects on refugee integration in these locations. Though immigration policy and funding for refugee services are primarily the domain of the federal government, funds are allocated through and services are delivered at the state level. The Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR), which operates under the Department of Health and Human Services, was established after the Refugee Act of 1980 to deliver assistance to displaced persons. The ORR provides funds to individual states primarily through The Refugee Social Service and Targeted Assistance Formula Grant programs. Since the inauguration of the ORR three primary models of refugee integration through service delivery have emerged. Two of the models include the publicly/privately administered programs, where resources are allocated to the state in conjunction with private voluntary agencies; and the Wilson/Fish Alternative programs, where states sub-contract all elements of the resettlement program to voluntary agencies and private organizations —in which they can cease all state level participation and voluntary agencies or private organizations contract directly from the ORR in order for all states to deliver refugee services where the live. The specific goals of this program are early employment and economic self-sufficiency. This project utilizes US Census, state, and ORR data in conjunction with interviews of refugee resettlement practitioners involved in the service delivery and refugees. The findings show that delivery models emphasizing job training, English instruction courses, institutional collaboration, and monetary assistance, increases refugee acclimation and adaptation, providing insight into their potential for integration into the United States.

The Origins and Legacy of a Currency Board in Argentina

This is a qualitative case study of the adoption of a currency board in Argentina in 1991. It presents a discursive analysis and intellectual history of four overlaying and mutually influencing stories of Convertibility’s adoption. It is (1) the story of how Menem aligned himself to the Washington Consensus as a means to win a Presidential election. This ideological alignment influences and is influenced by a (2) reconstitution of the Peronist Party’s historically entrenched identity. This in turn re-fashion the whole system of interest articulation and relative power of interest groups in Argentina. The adoption of a currency board also marks the pace of (3) the entrenchment neoliberal interests across a domestic network of neoliberal think-tanks, technocrats, politicians, and “technopoles” articulating neoliberal interests outside of the Washington Consensus, within an International Neoliberal Network. Argentina’s adoption of a currency board falls in line with the Corner Solutions, a neoliberal doctrine promoted to influence developing countries to adopt two forms of exchange rate regimes that allow for less government involvement, including a currency board. Argentina starts as a test country and then becomes (4) an ideological stepping stone to help promote the creation of currency boards across more “developing” countries. These stories are not sequential but concurrent, and they help advance an alternative critique of neoliberalism that focuses on specifics to induce case-specific lessons versus a theory claiming to provide any universal truth.

THERE GOES THE ELECTORAL NEIGHBORHOOD: LOCAL NETWORKS, ATTRIBUTION OF RESPONSIBILITY, AND THE (UN) FAIRNESS OF ELECTIONS

During the last two decades there have been but a handful of recorded cases of electoral fraud in Latin America. However, survey research consistently shows that often citizens do not trust the integrity of the electoral process. This dissertation addresses the puzzle by explaining the mismatch between how elections are conducted and how the process is perceived. My theoretical contribution provides a double-folded argument. First, voters’ trust in their community members (“the local experience”) impacts their level of confidence in the electoral process. Since voters often find their peers working at polling stations, negative opinions about them translate into negative opinions about the election. Second, perceptions of unfairness of the system (“the global effect”) negatively impact the way people perceive the transparency of the electoral process. When the political system fails to account for social injustice, citizens lose faith in the mechanism designed to elect representatives -and ultimately a set of policies. The fact that certain groups are systematically disregarded by the system triggers the notion that the electoral process is flawed. This is motivated by either egotropic or sociotropic considerations. To test these hypotheses, I employ a survey conducted in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala during May/June 2014, which includes a population-based experiment. I show that Voters who trust their peers consistently have higher confidence in the electoral process. Whereas respondents who were primed about social unfairness (treatment) expressed less confidence in the quality of the election. Finally, I find that the local experience is predominant over the global effect. The treatment has a statistically significant effect only for respondents who trust their community. Attribution of responsibility for voters who are skeptics of their peers is clear and simple, leaving no room for a more diffuse mechanism, the unfairness of the political system. Finally, now I extend analysis to the Latin America region. Using data from LAPOP that comprises four waves of surveys in 22 countries, I confirm the influence of the “local experience” and the “global effect” as determinants of the level of confidence in the electoral process.

Inequality, Poverty, Two Invariance Conditions, and a Product Rule

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New worlds and new churches: The Orthodox Church(es) and the European Union

The Orthodox church(es) share a common commitment to the unity of dogma and spirituality. There is, however, no doctrinal formulation that comes close to a form of political theology at a pan-Orthodox level. This means that the Orthodox churches’ attitude towards the European Union (EU) is driven by their ecclesial diversity and by complex inter-ecclesial relations. More fundamentally they share a fragmented and plural, theological objection to the very ideas of Europe and the West. This has been further complicated by the emergence of a substantial Orthodox diaspora from Eastern Europe, Russia, and the Middle East living across the breadth of the European continent. Consequently the ecclesial identity and self-perception of the autocephalous Orthodox churches is changing. These churches are becoming increasingly transnational and extra-territorial. With this, their perception of Europe and the West, as seen through the eyes of their diaspora communities, is altering from “threat” to “home” (Makrides and Uffelmann, 2003). The growing diaspora will not only impact the Christian demographics of Europe but will also transform the Eastern Churches’ view of Europe and the EU (Leustean, 2009; 2011; 2013; 2014a; 2014b).

La notion de l’explosion de la coopération et ses implications chez Kim Sterelny.

Le concept de coopération est souvent utilisé dans le domaine de l’éthique et de la politique pour illustrer et comprendre l’alignement des comportements associatifs entre les êtres humains. En lien avec ce concept, notre recherche portera sur la première question de savoir si Kim Sterelny (2003) réussit à produire un modèle théorique permettant d’expliquer les origines et les mécanismes de la coopération humaine. Notre recherche portera aussi sur la deuxième question de savoir s’il arrive à se servir de ce modèle pour infirmer la thèse de la modularité massive. Ainsi, ce mémoire traitera successivement du problème de la coopération, de la théorie de la sélection de groupe, du déclencheur écologique de la coopération des hominidés, des notions de coalition, d’exécution et d’engagement et finalement de la thèse de la modularité massive. Par l’examen de ces sujets, nous souhaitons démontrer que Sterelny n’arrive qu’à fournir une esquisse probable des origines et du développement de la coopération humaine et que sa critique de la thèse de la modularité massive n’arrive pas à infirmer cette dernière.

La notion de l’explosion de la coopération et ses implications chez Kim Sterelny

Le concept de coopération est souvent utilisé dans le domaine de l’éthique et de la politique pour illustrer et comprendre l’alignement des comportements associatifs entre les êtres humains. En lien avec ce concept, notre recherche portera sur la première question de savoir si Kim Sterelny (2003) réussit à produire un modèle théorique permettant d’expliquer les origines et les mécanismes de la coopération humaine. Notre recherche portera aussi sur la deuxième question de savoir s’il arrive à se servir de ce modèle pour infirmer la thèse de la modularité massive. Ainsi, ce mémoire traitera successivement du problème de la coopération, de la théorie de la sélection de groupe, du déclencheur écologique de la coopération des hominidés, des notions de coalition, d’exécution et d’engagement et finalement de la thèse de la modularité massive. Par l’examen de ces sujets, nous souhaitons démontrer que Sterelny n’arrive qu’à fournir une esquisse probable des origines et du développement de la coopération humaine et que sa critique de la thèse de la modularité massive n’arrive pas à infirmer cette dernière.

Form, Intention, and Indexing: The Liminal and Integrated Conceptions of Work in Knowledge Organization

This paper proposes a dual conception of work in knowledge organization. The first part is a conception of work as liminal, set apart from everyday work. The second is integrated, without separation. This talk is the beginning of a larger project where we will characterize work in knowledge organization, both as it is set out in our literature (Šauperl, 2004; Hjørland 2003 Wilson, 1968), and in a philosophical argument for its fundamental importance in the activities of society (Shera, 1972; Zandonade, 2004).But in order to do this, we will co-opt the conception of liminality from the anthropology of religion (Turner, 1967), and Zen Buddhist conceptions of moral action, intention, and integration (Harvey, 2000 and cf., Harada, S., 2008).The goal for this talk is to identify the acts repeated (form) and the purpose of those acts (intention), in knowledge organization, with specific regard to thresholds (liminal points) of intention present in those acts.We can then ask the questions: Where is intention in knowledge organization liminal and where is it integrated? What are the limits of knowledge organization work when considered at a foundational level of the intention labor practices? Answering such questions, in this context, allows us to reconsider the assumptions we have about knowledge organization work and its increasingly important role in society. As a consequence, we can consider the limits of classification research if we see the foundations of knowledge organization work when we see forms and intentions. I must also say that incorporating Zen Buddhist philosophy into knowledge organization research seems like it fits well with ethics and ethical responses the practice of knowledge organization. This is because 20th Century Western interpretations of Zen are often rooted in ethical considerations. This translates easily to work.

Forms, Foundations, and the Ethos of Foremost: Zen Practice, Epistemology, and Ontology in Reflective Knowledge Organization

In reflecting on the practice of knowledge organization, we tacitly or explicitly root our conceptions of work and its value in some epistemic and ontological foundation. Zen Buddhist philosophy offers a unique set of conceptions vis-à-vis organizing, indexing, and describing documents.When we engage in knowledge organization, we are setting our mind to work with an intention. We intend to make some sort of intervention. We then create a form a realization of an abstraction (like classes or terms) [1], we do this from a foundation of some set of beliefs (epistemology, ontology, and ethics), and because we have to make decisions about what to privilege, we need to decide what is foremost in our minds. We must ask what is the most important thing?Form, foundation, and the ethos of foremost require evoke in our reflection on work number of ethical, epistemic, and ontological concerns that ripple throughout our conceptions of space, “good work”, aesthetics, and moral mandate [2,3]. We reflect on this.