Predicting returns in U.S. financial sector indices

This study focuses on: (i) the responsiveness of the U.S. financial sector stock indices to foreign exchange (FX) and interest rate changes; and, (ii) the extent to which good model specification can enhance the forecasts from the associated models. Three models are considered. Only the error-correction model (ECM) generated efficient and consistent coefficient estimates. Furthermore, a simple zero lag model in differences which is clearly mis-specified, generated forecasts that are better than those of the ECM, even if the ECM depicts relationships that are more consistent with economic theory. In brief, FX and interest rate changes do not impact on the return-generating process of the stock indices in any substantial way. Most of the variation in the sector stock indices is associated with past variation in the indices themselves and variation in the market-wide stock index. These results have important implications for financial and economic policies.

Malmquist-type indices in the presence of negative data:an application to bank branches

In this paper we develop an index and an indicator of productivity change that can be used with negative data. For that purpose the range directional model (RDM), a particular case of the directional distance function, is used for computing efficiency in the presence of negative data. We use RDM efficiency measures to arrive at a Malmquist-type index, which can reflect productivity change, and we use RDM inefficiency measures to arrive at a Luenberger productivity indicator, and relate the two. The productivity index and indicator are developed relative to a fixed meta-technology and so they are referred to as a meta-Malmquist index and meta-Luenberger indicator. We also address the fact that VRS technologies are used for computing the productivity index and indicator (a requirement under negative data), which raises issues relating to the interpretability of the index. We illustrate how the meta-Malmquist index can be used, not only for comparing the performance of a unit in two time periods, but also for comparing the performance of two different units at the same or different time periods. The proposed approach is then applied to a sample of bank branches where negative data were involved. The paper shows how the approach yields information from a variety of perspectives on performance which management can use.

Accessibility indices and linked trips: a case study of the elderly

The confusion over the concept of accessibility in transport planning and the deficiencies of existing accessibility indices are examined by developing a conceptual framework of accessibility with a fundamental distinction being drawn between the, often conflicting, theoretical and practical dimensions. The theoretical validity of alternative indices is assessed with reference to the problems and assumptions implicit in defining, measuring, valuing and aggregating the variables and components comprising accessibility. The major deficiencies of existing indices are identified as the inability of indices to take account of the potential to link trips between more than one activity location and the level of assumptions implicit in valuing and aggregating accessibility information. In this context, it is argued that accessibility information is more appropriately expressed on a comparative basis in the form of a profile rather than as a composite single-unit index and that the present confines of accessibility measurement must be extended in line with current developments in disaggregate travel and activity modelling. The sensitivity of accessibility levels to the use of alternative value judgements, alternative forms and levels of aggregation and the inclusion of information on the potential to link trips is examined by undertaking a case study. Accessibility profiles are developed for 23 zones in the London Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham showing the accessibility of the elderly to post offices and grocers. In a practical context, the profiles assist in identifying areas and individuals with relatively poor accessibility. The incidence and nature of linked trip-making and its significance and implications for accessibility measurement are explored further by analysing the results of a survey of the elderly's travel patterns. It is concluded that future accessibility analysis should be undertaken at a disaggregate level, taking account of the potential opportunity available from nonhome as well as home origins.

Effect of aminoglycoside antibiotics on erythrocyte membrane potassium ion transport

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Complexity and chirality indices for molecular informatics::differential geometry approach

Novel molecular complexity measures are designed based on the quantum molecular kinematics. The Hamiltonian matrix constructed in a quasi-topological approximation describes the temporal evolution of the modelled electronic system and determined the time derivatives for the dynamic quantities. This allows to define the average quantum kinematic characteristics closely related to the curvatures of the electron paths, particularly, the torsion reflecting the chirality of the dynamic system. A special attention has been given to the computational scheme for this chirality measure. The calculations on realistic molecular systems demonstrate reasonable behaviour of the proposed molecular complexity indices.

Ankyrin is the major oxidised protein in erythrocyte membranes from end-stage renal disease patients on chronic haemodialysis and oxidation is decreased by dialysis and vitamin C supplementation

Chronically haemodialysed end-stage renal disease patients are at high risk of morbidity arising from complications of dialysis, the underlying pathology that has led to renal disease and the complex pathology of chronic kidney disease. Anaemia is commonplace and its origins are multifactorial, involving reduced renal erythropoietin production, accumulation of uremic toxins and an increase in erythrocyte fragility. Oxidative damage is a common risk factor in renal disease and its co-morbidities and is known to cause erythrocyte fragility. Therefore, we have investigated the hypothesis that specific erythrocyte membrane proteins are more oxidised in end-stage renal disease patients and that vitamin C supplementation can ameliorate membrane protein oxidation. Eleven patients and 15 control subjects were recruited to the study. Patients were supplemented with 2 × 500 mg vitamin C per day for 4 weeks. Erythrocyte membrane proteins were prepared pre- and post-vitamin C supplementation for determination of protein oxidation. Total protein carbonyls were reduced by vitamin C supplementation but not by dialysis when investigated by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay. Using a western blot to detect oxidised proteins, one protein band, later identified as containing ankyrin, was found to be oxidised in patients but not controls and was reduced significantly by 60% in all patients after dialysis and by 20% after vitamin C treatment pre-dialysis. Ankyrin oxidation analysis may be useful in a stratified medicines approach as a possible marker to identify requirements for intervention in dialysis patients.