Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and direct anthropogenic drivers on the ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf

The potential response of the marine ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf to climate change under a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) is investigated using the coupled hydrodynamics-ecosystem model POLCOMS-ERSEM. Changes in the near future (2030–2040) and the far future (2082–2099) are compared to the recent past (1983–2000). The sensitivity of the ecosystem to potential changes in multiple anthropogenic drivers (river nutrient loads and benthic trawling) in the near future is compared to the impact of changes in climate. With the exception of the biomass of benthic organisms, the influence of the anthropogenic drivers only exceeds the impact of climate change in coastal regions. Increasing river nitrogen loads has a limited impact on the ecosystem whilst reducing river nitrogen and phosphate concentrations affects net primary production(netPP) and phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Direct anthropogenic forcing is seen to mitigate/amplify the effects of climate change. Increasing river nitrogen has the potential to amplify the effects of climate change at the coast by increasing netPP. Reducing river nitrogen and phosphate mitigates the effects of climate change for netPP and the biomass of small phytoplankton and large zooplankton species but amplifies changes in the biomass of large phytoplankton and small zooplankton.

Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas’ ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton’s exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from complex combinations of multiple physical drivers, including changes in mixing, circulation and temperature, which act both locally and non-locally through advection.

Costs and benefits to European shipping of ballast-water and hull-fouling treatment: Impacts of native and non-indigenous species

Maritime transport and shipping are impacted negatively by biofouling, which can result in increased fuel consumption. Thus, costs for fouling reduction can be considered an investment to reduce fuel consumption. Anti-fouling measures also reduce the rate of introduction of non-indigenous species (NIS). Further mitigation measures to reduce the transport of NIS within ballast water and sediments impose additional costs. The estimated operational cost of NIS mitigation measures may represent between 1.6% and 4% of the annual operational cost for a ship operating on European seas, with the higher proportional costs in small ships. However, fouling by NIS may affect fuel consumption more than fouling by native species due to differences in species’ life-history traits and their resistance to antifouling coatings and pollution. Therefore, it is possible that the cost of NIS mitigation measures could be smaller than the cost from higher fuel consumption arising from fouling by NIS.

Impacts of Climate Modes on Air-Sea Heat Exchange in the Red Sea

The impacts of various climate modes on the Red Sea surface heat exchange are investigated using the MERRA reanalysis and the OAFlux satellite reanalysis datasets. Seasonality in the atmospheric forcing is also explored. Mode impacts peak during boreal winter [December–February (DJF)] with average anomalies of 12–18 W m−2 to be found in the northern Red Sea. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic–west Russia (EAWR) pattern, and the Indian monsoon index (IMI) exhibit the strongest influence on the air–sea heat exchange during the winter. In this season, the largest negative anomalies of about −30 W m−2 are associated with the EAWR pattern over the central part of the Red Sea. In other seasons, mode-related anomalies are considerably lower, especially during spring when the mode impacts are negligible. The mode impacts are strongest over the northern half of the Red Sea during winter and autumn. In summer, the southern half of the basin is strongly influenced by the multivariate ENSO index (MEI). The winter mode–related anomalies are determined mostly by the latent heat flux component, while in summer the shortwave flux is also important. The influence of the modes on the Red Sea is found to be generally weaker than on the neighboring Mediterranean basin.

Ecoturismo en comunidades rurales: análisis de los impactos negativos para la población local. Un estudio de caso

En los últimos años han aparecido nuevas formas de turismo más sostenibles, donde existen elementos relacionados con el descanso, el disfrute y la protección del medio ambiente o el conocimiento de la cultura local, a través de políticas que favorecen la sostenibilidad del destino. En este sentido, el ecoturismo se configura como una tipología turística que se desarrolla en contacto con la naturaleza. Este turismo ayuda a mejorar el desarrollo socioeconómico de las comunidades locales, a la vez, que fomenta la conservación de los recursos naturales y el respeto hacia el medio ambiente. Aunque, esta tipología de turismo también genera importantes impactos negativos. El objetivo principal de esta investigación es analizar los impactos socioeconómicos, culturales y medioambientales percibidos por el ecoturismo por parte de los residentes de comunidades rurales de República Dominicana. La técnica de recolección de datos utilizada ha consistido en un cuestionario. Entre las principales conclusiones, cabe destacar que actualmente no se perciben impactos negativos, pero si hay una serie de elementos que hay que ir considerando, con la finalidad de que no se conviertan en un impacto a corto plazo para la comunidad rural.

Impacts of climate change on species, populations and communities: palaeobiogeographical insights and frontiers

Understanding climate change and its potential impact on species, populations and communities is one of the most pressing questions of twenty-fi rst-century conservation planning. Palaeobiogeographers working on Cenozoic fossil records and other lines of evidence are producing important insights into the dynamic nature of climate and the equally dynamic response of species, populations and communities. Climatic variations ranging in length from multimillennia to decades run throughout the palaeo-records of the Quaternary and earlier Cenozoic and have been shown to have had impacts ranging from changes in the genetic structure and morphology of individual species, population sizes and distributions, community composition to large-scale bio-diversity gradients. The biogeographical impacts of climate change may be due directly to the effects of alterations in temperature and moisture on species, or they may arise due to changes in factors such as disturbance regimes. Much of the recent progress in the application of palaeobiogegraphy to issues of climate change and its impacts can be attributed to developments along a number of still advancing methodological frontiers. These include increasingly finely resolved chronological resolution, more refi ned atmosphere-biosphere modelling, new biological and chemical techniques in reconstructing past species distributions and past climates, the development of large and readily accessible geo-referenced databases of biogeographical and climatic information, and new approaches in fossil morphological analysis and new molecular DNA techniques.

Ecological impacts of the microsporidian parasite Pleistophora mulleri on its freshwater amphipod host Gammarus duebeni celticus

The microsporidian parasite, Pleistophora mulleri, infects the abdominal muscle of the freshwater amphipod Gammarus duebeni celticus. We recently showed that P. mulleri infection was associated with G. d. celticus hosts being more vulnerable to predation by the invasive amphipod Gammarus pulex. Parasitized G. d. celticus also had a reduced ability to prey upon other co-occurring amphipods. We suggested the parasite may have pervasive influences on host ecology and behaviour. Here, we examine the association between P. mulleri parasitism and parameters influencing individual host fitness, behaviour and interspecific interactions. We also investigate the relationship between parasite prevalence and host population structure in the field. In our G. d. celticus study population, P. mulleri prevalence was strongly seasonal, ranging from 8.5% in summer to 44.9% in winter. The relative abundance of hosts with the heaviest parasite burden increased during summer, which coincided with high host mortality, suggesting that parasitism may regulate host abundance to some degree. Females were more likely to be parasitized than males and parasitized males were paired with smaller females than unparasitized males. Parasitism was associated with reduction in the host's activity level and reduced both its predation on the isopod Asellus aquaticus and aggression towards precopula pairs of the invasive G. pulex. We discuss the pervasive influence of this parasite on the ecology of its host.

Environmental tolerances of free-living coralline algae (maerl): implications for European marine conservation

Maerl is a general term used for loose-lying subtidal beds of nodular coralline red algae. Maerl beds support high associated invertebrate and algal biodiversity, and are subject to European and UK conservation legislation. Previous investigations have shown European maerl to be ecologically fragile due to growth rates of approximately I mm per year. However, these very slow growth rates have hampered attempts to determine the key ecological requirements and sensitivity characteristics of living maerl. In this study, photosynthetic capacity determined by pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) fluorometry was used as a diagnostic of stress caused by various environmental conditions. Maerl species were exposed to a range of temperatures, salinities and light levels and to burial, fragmentation, desiccation and heavy metal treatment. Maerl was not as susceptible as previously assumed to extremes of salinity, temperature and heavy metal pollution, but burial, especially in fine or anoxic sediments, was lethal or caused significant stress. These data indicate that the main anthropogenic hazard for live maerl and the rich communities that depend on them is smothering by fine sediment, such as that produced by trawling or maerl extraction, from sewage discharges or shellfish and fish farm waste, and sedimentation resulting from disruption to tidal flow. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.