Merging Resource Availability with Isotope Mixing Models: The Role of Neutral Interaction Assumptions

Background: Bayesian mixing models have allowed for the inclusion of uncertainty and prior information in the analysis of trophic interactions using stable isotopes. Formulating prior distributions is relatively straightforward when incorporating dietary data. However, the use of data that are related, but not directly proportional, to diet (such as prey availability data) is often problematic because such information is not necessarily predictive of diet, and the information required to build a reliable prior distribution for all prey species is often unavailable. Omitting prey availability data impacts the estimation of a predator's diet and introduces the strong assumption of consumer ultrageneralism (where all prey are consumed in equal proportions), particularly when multiple prey have similar isotope values. Methodology: We develop a procedure to incorporate prey availability data into Bayesian mixing models conditional on the similarity of isotope values between two prey. If a pair of prey have similar isotope values (resulting in highly uncertain mixing model results), our model increases the weight of availability data in estimating the contribution of prey to a predator's diet. We test the utility of this method in an intertidal community against independently measured feeding rates. Conclusions: Our results indicate that our weighting procedure increases the accuracy by which consumer diets can be inferred in situations where multiple prey have similar isotope values. This suggests that the exchange of formalism for predictive power is merited, particularly when the relationship between prey availability and a predator's diet cannot be assumed for all species in a system.

AMBIVALENT IMPLICATIONS OF HEALTH CARE INFORMATION SYSTEMS: A STUDY IN THE BRAZILIAN PUBLIC HEALTH CARE SYSTEM

This article evaluates social implications of the ""SIGA"" Health Care Information System (HIS) in a public health care organization in the city of Sao Paulo. The evaluation was performed by means of an in-depth case study with patients and staff of a public health care organization, using qualitative and quantitative data. On the one hand, the system had consequences perceived as positive such as improved convenience and democratization of specialized treatment for patients and improvements in work organization. On the other hand, negative outcomes were reported, like difficulties faced by employees due to little familiarity with IT and an increase in the time needed to schedule appointments. Results show the ambiguity of the implications of HIS in developing countries, emphasizing the need for a more nuanced view of the evaluation of failures and successes and the importance of social contextual factors.

Non-Cardiac Surgery in Developing Countries: Epidemiological Aspects and Economical Opportunities - The Case of Brazil

Background: Worldwide distribution of surgical interventions is unequal. Developed countries account for the majority of surgeries and information about non-cardiac operations in developing countries is scarce. The purpose of our study was to describe the epidemiological data of non-cardiac surgeries performed in Brazil in the last years. Methods and Findings: This is a retrospective cohort study that investigated the time window from 1995 to 2007. We collected information from DATASUS, a national public health system database. The following variables were studied: number of surgeries, in-hospital expenses, blood transfusion related costs, length of stay and case fatality rates. The results were presented as sum, average and percentage. The trend analysis was performed by linear regression model. There were 32,659,513 non-cardiac surgeries performed in Brazil in thirteen years. An increment of 20.42% was observed in the number of surgeries in this period and nowadays nearly 3 million operations are performed annually. The cost of these procedures has increased tremendously in the last years. The increment of surgical cost was almost 200%. The total expenses related to surgical hospitalizations were more than $10 billion in all these years. The yearly cost of surgical procedures to public health system was more than $1.27 billion for all surgical hospitalizations, and in average, U$445.24 per surgical procedure. The total cost of blood transfusion was near $98 million in all years and annually approximately $10 million were spent in perioperative transfusion. The surgical mortality had an increment of 31.11% in the period. Actually, in 2007, the surgical mortality in Brazil was 1.77%. All the variables had a significant increment along the studied period: r square (r(2)) = 0.447 for the number of surgeries (P = 0.012), r(2) = 0.439 for in-hospital expenses (P = 0.014) and r(2) = 0.907 for surgical mortality (P = 0.0055). Conclusion: The volume of surgical procedures has increased substantially in Brazil through the past years. The expenditure related to these procedures and its mortality has also increased as the number of operations. Better planning of public health resource and strategies of investment are needed to supply the crescent demand of surgery in Brazil.

Relationships between human resource dimensions and environmental management in companies: proposal of a model

This work deals with the main contributions of human resource dimensions for the environmental management in a company. While the specialized literature concerning the technical aspects of environmental management expands, there is a gap in the bibliography: integrated approaches between human resource dimensions and environmental management. An extensive bibliographical review was undertaken in order to systematize the human resource dimensions and their contributions concerning the effectiveness of the environmental management system. A model that analyses the relationships between these dimensions and the typical phases of an environmental management system is presented, within a perspective of application for academicians and managers. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL CALLED ACQUANETXL IN THE ALLOCATION OF WATER IN COMPLEX WATER RESOURCE SYSTEMS

This article presents a tool for the allocation analysis of complex systems of water resources, called AcquaNetXL, developed in the form of spreadsheet in which a model of linear optimization and another nonlinear were incorporated. The AcquaNetXL keeps the concepts and attributes of a decision support system. In other words, it straightens out the communication between the user and the computer, facilitates the understanding and the formulation of the problem, the interpretation of the results and it also gives a support in the process of decision making, turning it into a clear and organized process. The performance of the algorithms used for solving the problems of water allocation was satisfactory especially for the linear model.

Planning and operation of large-scale water distribution systems with preemptive priorities

This paper describes the development of an optimization model for the management and operation of a large-scale, multireservoir water supply distribution system with preemptive priorities. The model considers multiobjectives and hedging rules. During periods of drought, when water supply is insufficient to meet the planned demand, appropriate rationing factors are applied to reduce water supply. In this paper, a water distribution system is formulated as a network and solved by the GAMS modeling system for mathematical programming and optimization. A user-friendly interface is developed to facilitate the manipulation of data and to generate graphs and tables for decision makers. The optimization model and its interface form a decision support system (DSS), which can be used to configure a water distribution system to facilitate capacity expansion and reliability studies. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the utility and versatility of the developed DSS under different supply and demand scenarios, including applications to one of the largest water supply systems in the world, the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area Water Supply Distribution System in Brazil.

PROPOSAL OF A PERFORMANCE MEASURING SYSTEM APPLIED TO AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION

The leaders` organizations of several different sectors have as characteristic to measure their own performance in a systematic way. However, this concept is still unusual in agricultural enterprises, including the mechanization sector. Mechanization has an important role on the production costs and to know its performance is a key factor for the agricultural enterprise success. This work was generated by the importance that measurement of performance has for the management and the mechanization impact on the production costs. Its aim is to propose an integrated performance measurement system to give support to agricultural management. The methodology was divided in two steps: adjustment of a conceptual model based on Balanced Score Card - BSC; application of the model in a study case at sugar cane mill. The adjustment and the application of the conceptual model allowed to obtain the performance index in a systematic way, that are associated to: costs and deadline ( traditionally used); control and improvement on the quality of operations and support process; environmental preservation; safety; health; employees satisfaction; development of information systems. The adjusted model helped the development of the performance measurement system for the mechanized management systems and the index allows an integrated view of the enterprise, related to its strategic objectives.

A hybrid probabilistic criterion for market-based transmission expansion planning

Market-based transmission expansion planning gives information to investors on where is the most cost efficient place to invest and brings benefits to those who invest in this grid. However, both market issue and power system adequacy problems are system planers’ concern. In this paper, a hybrid probabilistic criterion of Expected Economical Loss (EEL) is proposed as an index to evaluate the systems’ overall expected economical losses during system operation in a competitive market. It stands on both investors’ and planner’s point of view and will further improves the traditional reliability cost. By applying EEL, it is possible for system planners to obtain a clear idea regarding the transmission network’s bottleneck and the amount of losses arises from this weak point. Sequentially, it enables planners to assess the worth of providing reliable services. Also, the EEL will contain valuable information for moneymen to undertake their investment. This index could truly reflect the random behaviors of power systems and uncertainties from electricity market. The performance of the EEL index is enhanced by applying Normalized Coefficient of Probability (NCP), so it can be utilized in large real power systems. A numerical example is carried out on IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS), which will show how the EEL can predict the current system bottleneck under future operational conditions and how to use EEL as one of planning objectives to determine future optimal plans. A well-known simulation method, Monte Carlo simulation, is employed to achieve the probabilistic characteristic of electricity market and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is used as a multi-objective optimization tool.

A hybrid planning method for transmission networks in a deregulated environment

The reconstruction of power industries has brought fundamental changes to both power system operation and planning. This paper presents a new planning method using multi-objective optimization (MOOP) technique, as well as human knowledge, to expand the transmission network in open access schemes. The method starts with a candidate pool of feasible expansion plans. Consequent selection of the best candidates is carried out through a MOOP approach, of which multiple objectives are tackled simultaneously, aiming at integrating the market operation and planning as one unified process in context of deregulated system. Human knowledge has been applied in both stages to ensure the selection with practical engineering and management concerns. The expansion plan from MOOP is assessed by reliability criteria before it is finalized. The proposed method has been tested with the IEEE 14-bus system and relevant analyses and discussions have been presented.

The Learning Tourism Destination: The potential of a learning organisation approach for improving the sustainability of tourism destinations

Globalisation, increasing complexity, and the need to address triple-bottom line sustainability has seen the proliferation of Learning Organisations (LO) who, by definition, have the capacity to anticipate environmental changes and economic opportunities and adapt accordingly. Such organisations use system dynamics modelling (SDM) for both strategic planning and the promotion of organisational learning. Although SDM has been applied in the context of tourism destination management for predictive reasons, the current literature does not analyse or recognise how this could be used as a foundation for an LO. This study introduces the concept of the Learning Tourism Destinations (LTD) and discusses, on the basis of a review of 6 case studies, the potential of SDM as a tool for the implementation and enhancement of collective learning processes. The results reveal that SDM is capable of promoting communication between stakeholders and stimulating organisational learning. It is suggested that the LTD approach be further utilised and explored.

Accessibility to general practitioners in rural South Australia - A case study using geographic information system technology

Objective: To demonstrate the potential of GIS (geographic information system) technology and ARIA (Accessibility/Remoteness Index for Australia) as tools for medical workforce and health service planning in Australia. Design: ARIA is an index of remoteness derived by measuring road distance between populated localities and service centres. A continuous variable of remoteness from 0 to 12 is generated for any location in Australia. We created a GIS, with data on location of general practitioner services in non-metropolitan South Australia derived from the database of HUMPS (Rural Undergraduate Medical Placement System), and estimated, for the 1170 populated localities in South Australia, the accessibility/inaccessibility of the 109 identified GP services. Main outcome measures: Distance from populated locality to GP services. Results: Distance from populated locality to GP service ranged from 0 to 677 km (mean, 58 km). In all, 513 localities (43%) had a GP service within 20 km (for the majority this meant located within the town). However, for 173 populated localities (15%), the nearest GP service was more than 80 km away. There was a strong correlation between distance to GP service and ARIA value for each locality (0.69; P<0.05). Conclusions: GP services are relatively inaccessible to many rural South Australian communities. There is potential for GIS and for ARIA to contribute to rational medical workforce and health service planning. Adding measures of health need and more detailed data on types and extent of GP services provided will allow more sophisticated planning.

Grazers and diggers: Exploitation competition and coexistence among foragers with different feeding strategies on a single resource

A mathematical model is presented that describes a system where two consumer species compete exploitatively for a single renewable resource. The resource is distributed in a patchy but homogeneous environment; that is, all patches are intrinsically identical. The two consumer species are referred to as diggers and grazers, where diggers deplete the resource within a patch to lower densities than grazers. We show that the two distinct feeding strategies can produce a heterogeneous resource distribution that enables their coexistence. Coexistence requires that grazers must either move faster than diggers between patches or convert the resources to population growth much more efficiently than diggers. The model shows that the functional form of resource renewal within a patch is also important for coexistence. These results contrast with theory that considers exploitation competition for a single resource when the resource is assumed to be well mixed throughout the system.

Does management accounting play role in planning process?

This study examines the relationship between management accounting and planning profiles in Brazilian companies. The main goal is to understand the consequences of not including a fully structured management accounting scheme in the planning process. The authors conducted a field research among medium and large-sized companies, using a probabilistic sample from a population of 2281 companies. Using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and statistical cluster analysis, the authors grouped the entities` strategic budget planning processes into five profiles, after which the authors applied statistical tests to assess the five clusters. The study concludes that poor or fully implemented strategic and budget-planning processes relate to the management accounting profiles of the Brazilian organizations studied. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of immediate conservative breast surgery reconstruction: A classification system of defects revisited and an algorithm for selecting the appropriate technique

Background: Although various techniques have been used for breast conservation surgery reconstruction, there are few studies describing a logical approach to reconstruction of these defects. The objectives of this study were to establish a classification system for partial breast defects and to develop a reconstructive algorithm. Methods: The authors reviewed a 7-year experience with 209 immediate breast conservation surgery reconstructions. Mean follow-up was 31 months. Type I defects include tissue resection in smaller breasts (bra size A/B), including type IA, which involves minimal defects that do not cause distortion; type III, which involves moderate defects that cause moderate distortion; and type IC, which involves large defects that cause significant deformities. Type II includes tissue resection in medium-sized breasts with or without ptosis (bra size C), and type III includes tissue resection in large breasts with ptosis (bra size D). Results: Eighteen percent of patients presented type I, where a lateral thoracodorsal flap and a latissimus dorsi flap were performed in 68 percent. Forty-five percent presented type II defects, where bilateral mastopexy was performed in 52 percent. Thirty-seven percent of patients presented type III distortion, where bilateral reduction mammaplasty was performed in 67 percent. Thirty-five percent of patients presented complications, and most were minor. Conclusions: An algorithm based on breast size in relation to tumor location and extension of resection can be followed to determine the best approach to reconstruction. The authors` results have demonstrated that the complications were similar to those in other clinical series. Success depends on patient selection, coordinated planning with the oncologic surgeon, and careful intraoperative management.