The use and abuse of population viability analysis

A recent study by Brook ef al. empirically tested the performance of population viability analysis (PVA) using data from 21 populations across a wide range of species. The study concluded that PVAs are good at predicting the future dynamics of populations. We suggest that this conclusion is a result of a bias in the studies that Brook et al, included in their analyses, We present arguments that PVAs can only be accurate at predicting extinction probabilities if data are extensive and reliable, and if the distribution of vital rates between individuals and years can be assumed stationary in the future, or if any changes can be accurately predicted. In particular, we note th at although catastrophes are likely to have precipitated many extinctions, estimates of the probability of catastrophes are unreliable.

Demography of bridled nailtail wallabies translocated to the edge of their former range from captive and wild stock

Despite numerous, generally unsuccessful attempts to reintroduce threatened Australian mammals, the factors leading to their failure have not been fully clarified, although predator control would appear to be of paramount importance. An experimental approach was taken in attempting to establish a population of bridled nailtail wallabies ih an area of apparently suitable habitat and low fox density, but on the edge of the species' former range. The 133 wallabies released since late 1996 comprised four groups captive-bred animals, wild caught from the single remaining wild population, animals that were captive bred and acclimatised at the translocation site in a 10 ha predator-proof enclosure, and animals which had been bred in the enclosure. Survival was highest in those bred in the enclosure and highly variable among captive-bred animals. Survival estimates for wild recruits suggested the population would maintain a positive rate of increase under prevailing environmental conditions. Spotlighting surveys suggested the population had increased to approximately 400 animals by late 1999. Above average rainfall during 1996-1999 and no apparent predation suggests caution in describing the translocation as a success. Ongoing monitoring is critical, because it A uncertain ho v the population will cope with drought and inevitable predation events, and whether the population will expand and persist outside of limited preferred habitat. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Veterinary employment patterns

Rolls and electronic records of The Veterinary Surgeons Board of Queensland between 1940 and 2000 were analysed to identify changes in the numbers and employment patterns of veterinarians. The number of veterinarians increased at a much more rapid rate than the population and on a state-wide level reached a plateau a decade ago at 340 per million. A plateau has not been reached in the capital city of Brisbane. The percentage of veterinarians employed with government funds has decreased, and the percentage of private practitioners increased to more than 80%. In 2000, single veterinarian practices represented 50% of all practices and 24% of practitioners. Women represented less than 10% of Queensland veterinarians until 1980, but 33% in 2000, and they are in higher concentration in Brisbane than elsewhere in the state.

Theory and applications of fuzzy Volterra integral equations

Formulations of fuzzy integral equations in terms of the Aumann integral do not reflect the behavior of corresponding crisp models. Consequently, they are ill-adapted to describe physical phenomena, even when vagueness and uncertainty are present. A similar situation for fuzzy ODEs has been obviated by interpretation in terms of families of differential inclusions. The paper extends this formalism to fuzzy integral equations and shows that the resulting solution sets and attainability sets are fuzzy and far better descriptions of uncertain models involving integral equations. The investigation is restricted to Volterra type equations with mildly restrictive conditions, but the methods are capable of extensive generalization to other types and more general assumptions. The results are illustrated by integral equations relating to control models with fuzzy uncertainties.

Body size and latitudinal gradients in regional diversity of New World birds

Axe latitudinal gradients in regional diversity random or biased with respect to body size? Using data for the New World avifauna, I show that the slope of the increase in regional species richness from the Arctic to the equator is not independent of body size. The increase is steepest among small and medium-sized species, and shallowest among the largest species. This is reflected in latitudinal variation in the shape of frequency distributions of body sizes in regional subsets of the New World avifauna. Because species are added disproportionately in small and medium size classes towards low latitudes, distributions become less widely spread along the body size axis than expected from the number of species. These patterns suggest an interaction between the effects of latitude and body size on species richness, implying that mechanisms which vary with both latitude and body size may be important determinants of high tropical diversity in New World birds.

Intramolecular electronic energy transfer in bichromophoric macrocyclic complexes

Efficient intramolecular electronic energy transfer (EET) has been demonstrated for three novel bichromophoric compounds utilizing a macrocyclic spacer as the bridge between the electronic energy donor and acceptor fragments. As their free base forms, emission from the electronically excited donor is absent and the acceptor emission is reductively quenched via photoinduced oxidation of proximate amine lone pairs. As their Zn(II) complexes, excitation of the donor results in sensitization of the electronic acceptor emission.

Comparative analysis of genetic diversity in the mangrove species Avicennia marina (Forsk.) Vierh. (Avicenniaceae) detected by AFLPs and SSRs

Avicennia marina is an important mangrove species with a wide geographical and climatic distribution which suggests that large amounts of genetic diversity are available for conservation and breeding programs. In this study we compare the informativeness of AFLPs and SSRs for assessing genetic diversity within and among individuals, populations and subspecies of A. marina in Australia. Our comparison utilized three SSR loci and three AFLP primer sets that were known to be polymorphic, and could be run in a single analysis on a capillary electrophoresis system, using different-colored fluorescent dyes. A total of 120 individuals representing six populations and three subspecies were samplcd. At the locus level, SSRs were considerably more variable than AFLPs, with a total of 52 alleles and an average heterozygosity of 0.78. Average heterozygosity for AFLPs was 0.193, but all of the 918 bands scored were polymorphic. Thus, AFLPs were considerably more efficient at revealing polymorphic loci than SSRs despite lower average heterozygosities. SSRs detected more genetic differentiation between populations (19 vs 9%) and subspecies (35 vs 11%) than AFLPs. Principal co-ordinate analysis revealed congruent patterns of genetic relationships at the individual, population and subspecific levels for both data sets. Mantel testing confirmed congruence between AFLP and SSR genetic distances among, but not within, population comparisons, indicating that the markers were segregating inde- pendently but that evolutionary groups (populations and subspecies) were similar. Three genetic criteria of importance for defining priorities for ex situ collections or in situ conservation programs (number of alleles, number of locally common alleles and number of private alleles) were correlated between the AFLP and SSR data sets. The congruence between AFLP and SSR data sets suggest that either method, or a combination, is applicable to expanded genetic studies of mangroves. The codominant nature of SSRs makes them ideal for further population-based investigations, such as mating-system analyses, for which the dominant AFLP markers are less well suited. AFLPs may be particularly useful for monitoring propagation programs and identifying duplicates within collections, since a single PCR assay can reveal many loci at once.

Effect of a control burn on lizards and their structural environment in a eucalypt open-forest

The composition of an open-forest lizard assemblage in eastern Australia was examined before and after a low-intensity controlled fire and concurrently compared with that in an adjoining unburnt area. The effect of fire on the available structural environment and the habitat used by two focal species, Carlia vivax and Lygisaurus foliorum, was also examined. Lizard species richness was unaffected by the controlled burn as was the abundance of most species. C. vivax was the only species to display a significant reduction in abundance after fire. While the low-intensity fire resulted in significant changes to the available structural environment, there were no compensatory shifts in the habitat preferences of either C. vivax or L. foliorum. The reduction in abundance of C. vivax was congruent with this species' avoidance of burnt areas. C. vivax displayed a non-random preference for ground cover and litter cover, which were reduced in burnt areas. Changes in the availability of preferred structural habitat features are likely to contribute to changes in the abundance of some lizard species. Therefore, even low-intensity disturbances can have an impact on lizard assemblages if critical habitat features are lost or become limiting.

Diversity and change in Australia's rangelands: a post-productivist transition with a difference?

Australia's rangelands are experiencing a post-productivist transition at a tempo comparable to Western Europe's, but in contexts that ensure marked divergence in impulses, actors, processes and outcomes. In Australia's most marginal lands, a flimsy mode of pastoral occupance is being displaced by renewed indigenous occupance, conservation and tourism, with significant changes in land ownership, property rights, investment sources and power relations, but also with structural problems arising from fugitive income streams. The sharp delineation between structurally coherent commodity-oriented regions and emerging amenity-oriented regions can provisionally be mapped at a national scale. A comparison of Australia with Western Europe indicates that three distinct but interconnected driving forces are propelling the rural transition, namely: agricultural overcapacity; the emergence of amenity-oriented uses; and changing societal values.

Strange bedfellows: Green Hill Fort, archaeology and tourism

Green Hill Fort, Thursday Islalld was constructed between 1891-1893 to defend the Australian colonies against a feared Russian invasion. It retained an operational role until the 1920.'1 and played a minor role in World /t'ar 2. From 1954 to 1993 the site, but not the facilities, was used as a weather station. More recently it has been home ofthe Ton-es Strait Historical Society and Museum Association museum. It is a major attraction during the tourist season and an important local icon. For archaeologists it has sign~ficance as a relatively intact nineteenth-century military installation. Two 'Centenary of Federation' grants have proVided the impetus to undertake conservation and presentation works involving various task -spec~fic, archaeological activities. At the management level archaeologists play the lead role in the project. The project has demonstrated the value oJarchaeology and tourism joining forces. The danger ofa 'theme park 'presentation has been avoided. Technical accuracy and careful site planning has ensured a high degree ofaccuracy is retained. Provided these qualities can be assured then, it is argued, there is an opportunity for archaeology to be a majOl; long-term beneficiary. But to achieve that, the discipline must move from being entrenched in its academic mould and become Jar more receptive to the broader needs ofthe twentyfirst century.

delta N-15 values of tropical savanna and monsoon forest species reflect root specialisations and soil nitrogen status

A large number of herbaceous and woody plants from tropical woodland, savanna, and monsoon forest were analysed to determine the impact of environmental factors (nutrient and water availability, fire) and biological factors (microbial associations, systematics) on plant delta(15)N values. Foliar delta(15)N values of herbaceous and woody species were not related to growth form or phenology, but a strong relationship existed between mycorrhizal status and plant delta(15)N. In woodland and savanna, woody species with ectomycorrhizal (ECM) associations and putative N-2-fixing species with ECM/arbuscular (AM) associations had lowest foliar delta(15)N values (1.0-0.6parts per thousand), AM species had mostly intermediate delta(15)N values (average +0.6parts per thousand), while non-mycorrhizal Proteaceae had highest delta(15)N values (+2.9 to +4.1parts per thousand). Similar differences in foliar delta(15)N were observed between AM (average 0.1 and 0.2parts per thousand) and non-mycorrhizal (average +0.8 and +0.3parts per thousand) herbaceous species in woodland and savanna. Leguminous savanna species had significantly higher leaf N contents (1.8-2.5% N) than non-fixing species (0.9-1.2% N) indicating substantial N acquisition via N-2 fixation. Monsoon forest species had similar leaf N contents (average 2.4% N) and positive delta(15)N values (+0.9 to +2.4parts per thousand). Soil nitrification and plant NO3- use was substantially higher in monsoon forest than in woodland or savanna. In the studied communities, higher soil N content and nitrification rates were associated with more positive soil delta(15)N and plant delta(15)N. In support of this notion, Ficus, a high NO3- using taxa associated with NO3- rich sites in the savanna, had the highest delta(15)N values of all AM species in the savanna. delta(15)N of xylem sap was examined as a tool for studying plant delta(15)N relations. delta(15)N of xylem sap varied seasonally and between differently aged Acacia and other savanna species. Plants from annually burnt savanna had significantly higher delta(15)N values compared to plants from less frequently burnt savanna, suggesting that foliar N-15 natural abundance could be used as marker for assessing historic fire regimes. Australian woodland and savanna species had low leaf delta(15)N and N content compared to species from equivalent African communities indicating that Australian biota are the more N depauperate. The largest differences in leaf delta(15)N occurred between the dominant ECM Australian and African savanna (miombo) species, which were depleted and enriched in N-15, respectively. While the depleted delta(15)N of Australian ECM species are similar to those of previous reports on ECM species in natural plant communities, the N-15-enriched delta(15)N of African ECM species represent an anomaly.

Towards the on-farm conservation of the assassin bug Pristhesancus plagipennis (Walker) (Hemiptera : Reduviidae) during winter using crop plants as refuges

Habitat instability associated with seasonal crop succession in broad-acre farming systems presents a problem for the conservation and utilisation of beneficial insects in annual field crops. The present paper describes two experiments used to measure the potential of seven plant species to be utilised as winter refuges to support and conserve the predatory bug Pristhesancus plagipennis (Walker). In the first experiment, replicated plots of canola (Brassica napus ), red salvia (Salvia coccinea ), niger (Guizotia abyssinica ), linseed (Linum usitatissimum ), lupins (Lupinus angustifolius ), and lucerne (Medicago falcata ) were planted in a randomized experiment during Autumn 1998. Upon crop establishment, adults and nymphs of P. plagipennis were released into treatment plots and their numbers were assessed, along with those of their potential prey, throughout the ensuing winter months. Post-release sampling suggested that canola and niger retained a proportion of adult P. plagipennis , while niger, lucerne and canola retained some nymphs. The other plant species failed to support P. plagipennis nymphs and adults postrelease. In the second experiment, niger was compared with two lines of sunflower (Helianthus annus ). Both sunflower lines harboured significantly higher (P < 0.05) densities of P. plagipennis nymphs than did niger. The more successful refuge treatments (sunflower, niger and canola) had an abundance of yellow flowers that were attractive to pollinating insects, which served as supplementary prey on which P. plagipennis were observed to feed. Sunflower and niger also supported high densities of the prey insect Creontiades dilutus (Stal) and provided protective leafy canopies which supplied shelter during the winter months. The potential and limitations for using each plant species as a winter refuge to retain P. plagipennis during winter are discussed.