The case of negative day-ahead electricity prices

In recent years, Germany has significantly increased its share of electricity produced from renewable sources, which is mainly due to the Renewable Energy Act (EEG). The EEG substantially impacts the dynamics of intra-day electricity prices by increasing the likelihood of negative prices. In this paper, we present a non-Gaussian process to model German intra-day electricity prices and propose an estimation procedure for this model. Most importantly, our model is able to generate extreme positive and negative spikes. A simulation study demonstrates the ability of our model to capture the characteristics of the data.

On-demand hd video using Jini based grid

This research establishes the feasibility of using a network centric technology, Jini, to provide a grid framework on which to perform parallel video encoding. A solution was implemented using Jini and obtained real-time on demand encoding of a 480 HD video stream. Further, a projection is made concerning the encoding of 1080 HD video in real-time, as the current grid was not powerful enough to achieve this above 15fps. The research found that Jini is able to provide a number of tools and services highly applicable in a grid environment. It is also suitable in terms of performance and responds well to a varying number of grid nodes. The main performance limiter was found to be the network bandwidth allocation, which when loaded with a large number of grid nodes was unable to handle the traffic.

Inferring convective responses to El Niño with atmospheric electricity measurements at Shetland

Pacific ocean temperature anomalies associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulate atmospheric convection and hence thunderstorm electrification. The generated current flows globally via the atmospheric electric circuit, which can be monitored anywhere on Earth. Atmospheric electricity measurements made at Shetland (in Scotland) display a mean global circuit response to ENSO that is characterized by strengthening during 'El Niño' conditions, and weakening during 'La Niña' conditions. Examining the hourly varying response indicates that a potential gradient (PG) increase around noon UT is likely to be associated with a change in atmospheric convection and resultant lightning activity over equatorial Africa and Eastern Asia. A secondary increase in PG just after midnight UT can be attributed to more shower clouds in the central Pacific ocean during an 'El Niño'.

Winners and losers from industry reforms in the developing world: experiences from the electricity and mining sectors

The reform of previously state-owned and operated industries in many Less Developed Countries (LDCs) provide contrary experiences to those in the developed world, which have generally had more equitable distributional impacts. The economic reform policies proposed by the so-called 'Washington Consensus' state that privatisation provides governments with opportunities to raise revenues through the sale of under-performing and indebted state industries, thereby reducing significant fiscal burdens, and, at the same time, facilitating influxes of foreign capital, skills and technology, with the aim of improving operations and a "trickle-down" of benefits. However, experiences in many LDCs over the last 15-20 years suggest that reform has not solved the problem of chronic public-sector debt, and that poverty and socio-economic inequalities have increased during this period of 'neo-liberal' economics. This paper does not seek to challenge the policies themselves, but rather argues that the context in which reform has often taken place is of fundamental significance. The industry-centric policy advice provided by the IFIs typically causes a 'lock-in' of inequitably distributed 'efficiency gains', providing minimal, if any, benefits to impoverished groups. These arguments are made using case study analysis from the electricity and mining sectors.

Can microgrids make a major contribution to UK energy supply?

Almost all the electricity currently produced in the UK is generated as part of a centralised power system designed around large fossil fuel or nuclear power stations. This power system is robust and reliable but the efficiency of power generation is low, resulting in large quantities of waste heat. The principal aim of this paper is to investigate an alternative concept: the energy production by small scale generators in close proximity to the energy users, integrated into microgrids. Microgrids—de-centralised electricity generation combined with on-site production of heat—bear the promise of substantial environmental benefits, brought about by a higher energy efficiency and by facilitating the integration of renewable sources such as photovoltaic arrays or wind turbines. By virtue of good match between generation and load, microgrids have a low impact on the electricity network, despite a potentially significant level of generation by intermittent energy sources. The paper discusses the technical and economic issues associated with this novel concept, giving an overview of the generator technologies, the current regulatory framework in the UK, and the barriers that have to be overcome if microgrids are to make a major contribution to the UK energy supply. The focus of this study is a microgrid of domestic users powered by small Combined Heat and Power generators and photovoltaics. Focusing on the energy balance between the generation and load, it is found that the optimum combination of the generators in the microgrid- consisting of around 1.4 kWp PV array per household and 45% household ownership of micro-CHP generators- will maintain energy balance on a yearly basis if supplemented by energy storage of 2.7 kWh per household. We find that there is no fundamental technological reason why microgrids cannot contribute an appreciable part of the UK energy demand. Indeed, an estimate of cost indicates that the microgrids considered in this study would supply electricity at a cost comparable with the present electricity supply if the current support mechanisms for photovoltaics were maintained. Combining photovoltaics and micro-CHP and a small battery requirement gives a microgrid that is independent of the national electricity network. In the short term, this has particular benefits for remote communities but more wide-ranging possibilities open up in the medium to long term. Microgrids could meet the need to replace current generation nuclear and coal fired power stations, greatly reducing the demand on the transmission and distribution network.

Household attributes and the future demand for retirement housing

Ageing populations provoke the question of how much bespoke housing should be provided for the elderly. Older people are generally reluctant to move but as they age health circumstances may encourage moves into specialised accommodation. This paper reports an exercise in estimating the future demand for specialised independent living housing and the extent to which that demand will be for owner occupied accommodation or renting, using data for England. The approach is based on a behavioral model related to health and housing issues. The forecasts indicate a substantial increase in demand, growing at a faster rate than the population as a whole. If supply does not rise to meet these demands, serious problems arise in the quality of life of, and cost of caring for, older people; with implications for health care and social services.

Asymmetric response of demand-supply mismatch to investor's sentiment

We look through both the demand and supply side information to understand dynamics of price determination in the real estate market and examine how accurately investors’ attitudes predict the market returns and thereby flagging off extent of any demand-supply mismatch. Our hypothesis is based on the possibility that investors’ call for action in terms of their buy/sell decision and adjustment in reservation/offer prices may indicate impending demand-supply imbalances in the market. In the process, we study several real estate sectors to inform our analysis. The timeframe of our analysis (1995-2010) allows us to observe market dynamics over several economic cycles and in various stages of those cycles. Additionally, we also seek to understand how investors’ attitude or the sentiment affects the market activity over the cycles through asymmetric responses. We test our hypothesis variously using a number of measures of market activity and attitude indicators within several model specifications. The empirical models are estimated using Vector Error Correction framework. Our analysis suggests that investors’ attitude exert strong and statistically significant feedback effects in price determination. Moreover, these effects do reveal heterogeneous responses across the real estate sectors. Interestingly, our results indicate the asymmetric responses during boom, normal and recessionary periods. These results are consistent with the theoretical underpinnings.

Aerosol-induced correlation between visibility and atmospheric electricity.

Atmospheric aerosol acts to both reduce the background concentration of natural cluster ions, and to attenuate optical propagation. Hence, the presence of aerosol has two consequences, the reduction of the air’s electrical conductivity and the visual range. Ion-aerosol theory and Koschmieder’s visibility theory are combined here to derive the related non-linear variation of the atmospheric electric potential gradient with visual range. A substantial sensitivity is found under poor visual range conditions, but, for good visual range conditions the sensitivity diminishes and little influence of local aerosol on the fair weather potential gradient occurs. This allows visual range measurements, made simply and routinely at many meteorological sites, to provide inference about the local air’s electrical properties.

Is there a demand for sustainable offices? An analysis of UK business occupier moves (2006–2008)

‘Sustainable’ or ‘green’ commercial buildings are frequently seen as a growth sector in the property investment market. This research examines the emergence of sustainable commercial buildings in both the UK and overseas. The empirical part of the paper is based on a telephone survey of 50 UK corporate (private sector) occupiers taking leased and owner–occupied office space, which was carried out during the period of April to November 2008. The survey focused on actual moves made within the previous two years, or moves that were imminent during 2006–2008. The research suggests that although there is an emerging and increasing demand for sustainable offices in the UK, other factors such as location and availability of stock continue to remain more important than sustainability in determining occupiers’ final choice of office. Occupiers who moved to a Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method (BREEAM)‐rated building, and were in business sectors with strong environmental and corporate responsibility policies, placed more emphasis on sustainability than other groups in the final choice of office, but location and availability remained paramount.

Energy overview of Botswana: generation and consumption

Botswana has a basic need to explore its energy concept, this being its energy sources, generation and percentage of the population with access to electricity. At present, Botswana generates electricity from coal, which supplies about 29% (on average) of the country’s demand. The other 71% is imported mainly from South Africa (Eskom). Consequently, the dependence of Botswana on imports posses threats to the security of its energy supply. As a result, there is the need to understand the bases for a possible generation expansion that would substantiate existing documentation. In view of this need, this study investigates the existing energy sources as well as energy consumption and production levels in Botswana. The study would be further developed by making projections of the energy demand up until the year 2020. The key techniques that were used include; literature review, questionnaire survey and an empirical study. The results presented indicated that, current dependable operation capacity (i.e. 100MW) should be increased to 2,595 MW or more assuming 85% plant efficiency. This would then be able to meet the growing demand for energy use. In addition, the installed capacity would be able to support commercial and mining activities for the growth of the economy.