826 resultados para Effects-Based Approach to Operations


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The need for timely population data for health planning and Indicators of need has Increased the demand for population estimates. The data required to produce estimates is difficult to obtain and the process is time consuming. Estimation methods that require less effort and fewer data are needed. The structure preserving estimator (SPREE) is a promising technique not previously used to estimate county population characteristics. This study first uses traditional regression estimation techniques to produce estimates of county population totals. Then the structure preserving estimator, using the results produced in the first phase as constraints, is evaluated.^ Regression methods are among the most frequently used demographic methods for estimating populations. These methods use symptomatic indicators to predict population change. This research evaluates three regression methods to determine which will produce the best estimates based on the 1970 to 1980 indicators of population change. Strategies for stratifying data to improve the ability of the methods to predict change were tested. Difference-correlation using PMSA strata produced the equation which fit the data the best. Regression diagnostics were used to evaluate the residuals.^ The second phase of this study is to evaluate use of the structure preserving estimator in making estimates of population characteristics. The SPREE estimation approach uses existing data (the association structure) to establish the relationship between the variable of interest and the associated variable(s) at the county level. Marginals at the state level (the allocation structure) supply the current relationship between the variables. The full allocation structure model uses current estimates of county population totals to limit the magnitude of county estimates. The limited full allocation structure model has no constraints on county size. The 1970 county census age - gender population provides the association structure, the allocation structure is the 1980 state age - gender distribution.^ The full allocation model produces good estimates of the 1980 county age - gender populations. An unanticipated finding of this research is that the limited full allocation model produces estimates of county population totals that are superior to those produced by the regression methods. The full allocation model is used to produce estimates of 1986 county population characteristics. ^

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Coronary perfusion with thrombolytic therapy and selective reperfusion by percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) were examined in the Corpus Christi Heart Project, a population-based surveillance program for hospitalized acute myocardial infarction (MI) patients in a biethnic community of Mexican-Americans (MAs) and non-Hispanic whites (NHWs). Results were based on 250 (12.4%) patients who received thromobolytic therapy in a cohort of 2011 acute MI cases. Out of these 107 (42.8%) underwent PTCA with a mean follow-up of 25 months. There were 186 (74.4%) men and 64 (25.6%) women; 148 (59.2%) were NHWs, 86 (34.4%) were MAs. Thrombolysis and PTCA were performed less frequently in women than in men, and less frequently in MAs than in NHWs.^ According to the coronary reperfusion interventions used, patients were divided in two groups, those that received no-PTCA (57.2%) and the other that underwent PTCA (42.8%) after thrombolysis. The case-fatality rate was higher in no-PTCA patients than in the PTCA (7.7% versus 5.6%), as was mortality at one year (16.2% versus 10.5%). Reperfusion was successful in 48.0% in the entire cohort and (51.4% versus 45.6%) in the PTCA and no-PTCA groups. Mortality in the successful reperfusion patients was 5.0% compared to 22.3% in the unsuccessful reperfusion group (p = 0.00016, 95% CI: 1.98-11.6).^ Cardiac catheterization was performed in 86.4% thrombolytic patients. Severe stenosis ($>$75%) obstruction was present most commonly in the left descending artery (52.8%) and in the right coronary artery (52.8%). The occurrence of adverse in-hospital clinical events was higher in the no-PTCA as compared to the PTCA and catheterized patients with the exception of reperfusion arrythmias (p = 0.140; Fisher's exact test p = 0.129).^ Cox regression analysis was used to study the relationship between selected variables and mortality. Apart from successful reperfusion, age group (p = 0.028, 95% CI: 2.1-12.42), site of acute MI index (p = 0.050) and ejection-fraction (p = 0.052) were predictors of long-term survival. The ejection-fraction in the PTCA group was higher than (median 78% versus 53%) in the no-PTCA group. Assessed by logistic regression analysis history of high cholesterol ($>$200mg/dl) and diabetes mellites did have significant prognostic value (p = 0.0233; p = 0.0318) in long-term survival irrespective of treatment status.^ In conclusion, the results of this study support the idea that the use of PTCA as a selective intervention following thrombolysis improves survival of patients with acute MI. The use of PTCA in this setting appears to be safe. However, we can not exclude the possibility that some of these results may have occurred due to the exclusion from PTCA of high risk patients (selection bias). ^

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Uruguay has some of the strictest tobacco-control laws in Latin America. Despite this, youth smoking rates in Uruguay are amongst the highest in South America. Thus, it is important to identify strategies to prevent youth smoking in Uruguay. The current qualitative research study sought to identify intrapersonal and socioenvironmental factors that are associated with smoking among middle school youth in Uruguay. It also sought to develop potential prevention strategies and media messages that would resonate with youth for a social media campaign. The study was grounded in social cognitive theory and the theory of reasoned action/planned behavior, among other behavioral science theories; anthropological perspectives were also considered. To achieve these goals, 29 group and individual structured interviews were conducted in two private middle schools catering to lower and higher SES youth in Montevideo, Uruguay during the summer of 2012. One hundred and three study participants, including students, parents, and teachers, were interviewed. The structured interviews were recorded, transcribed, translated, back translated, coded and analyzed. The study findings show that positive attitudes towards smoking (i.e. to be seen, to increase status, to ensure women's equality, to looking old, and to service as a rite of passage), delinquent behavior (i.e. transgression/deviant behavior), social norms that support smoking (i.e. peer pressure and modeling, group membership/sense of belonging, parental modeling, and family support), easy access and availability to tobacco (i.e. retails stores) were factors associated with youth smoking. Potential protective factors may include parental support, negative attitudes towards smoking, sports/music, and smoke-free environments. Because study participants are accustomed to government-sponsored strong countermarketing graphic imaging, study participants selected even stronger images and messages as the preferred way to receive tobacco prevention messages. Something Real ("Algo Real") was a theme that resonated with the participants and chosen as the name for the proposed campaign. This campaign was designed as a multiple component intervention that included mass, school base, and family based strategies to prevent tobacco use. Some intervention materials specific to these intervention components were developed to target relevant intrapersonal and socioenvironmental factors identified above. These materials will be tested in future pilot studies and larger scale evaluation with this population, outside the scope of this dissertation. ^

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To understand the adaptation of euphausiid (krill) species to oxygen minimum zones (OMZ), respiratory response and stress experiments combining hypoxia/reoxygenation exposure with warming were conducted. Experimental krill species were obtained from the Antarctic (South Georgia area), the Humboldt Current system (HCS, Chilean coast), and the Northern California Current system (NCCS, Oregon). Euphausia mucronata from the HCS shows oxyconforming or oxygen partial pressure (pO2)-dependent respiration below 80% air saturation (18 kPa). Normoxic subsurface oxygenation in winter posed a "high oxygen stress" for this species. The NCCS krill, Euphausia pacifica, and the Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba maintain respiration rates constant down to low critical pO2 values of 6 kPa (30% air saturation) and 11 kPa (55% air saturation), respectively. Antarctic krill had the lowest antioxidant enzyme activities, but the highest concentrations of the molecular antioxidant glutathione (GSH) and was not affected by 6 h exposure to moderate hypoxia. Temperate krill species had higher SOD (superoxide dismutase) values in winter than in summer, which relate to higher winter metabolic rate (E. pacifica). In all species, antioxidant enzyme activities remained constant during hypoxic exposure at habitat temperature. Warming by 7°C above habitat temperature in summer increased SOD activities and GSH levels in E. mucronata (HCS), but no oxidative damage occurred. In winter, when the NCCS is well mixed and the OMZ is deeper, +4°C of warming combined with hypoxia represents a lethal condition for E. pacifica. In summer, when the OMZ expands upwards (100 m subsurface), antioxidant defences counteracted hypoxia and reoxygenation effects in E. pacifica, but only at mildly elevated temperature (+2°C). In this season, experimental warming by +4°C reduced antioxidant activities and the hypoxia combination again caused mortality of exposed specimens. We conclude that a climate change scenario combining warming and hypoxia represents a serious threat to E. pacifica and, as a consequence, NCCS food webs.

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In order to illustrate how the input-output approach can be used to explore various aspects of a country's participation in GVCs, this paper applies indicators derived from the concept of trade in value-added (TiVA) to the case of Costa Rica. We intend to provide developing countries that seek to foster GVC-driven structural transformation with an example that demonstrates an effective way to measure progress. The analysis presented in this paper makes use of an International Input-Output Table (IIOT) that was constructed by including Costa Rica's first Input-Output Table (IOT) into an existing IIOT. The TiVA indicator has been used to compare and contrast import flows, export flows and bilateral trade balances in terms of gross trade and trade in value-added. The country's comparative advantage is discussed based on a TiVA-related indicator of revealed comparative advantage. The paper also decomposes the domestic content of value added in each sector and measures the degree of fragmentation in the value chains in which Costa Rica participates, highlighting the partner countries that add the most value.

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Next Generation Networks (NGN) provide Telecommunications operators with the possibility to share their resources and infrastructure, facilitate the interoperability with other networks, and simplify and unify the management, operation and maintenance of service offerings, thus enabling the fast and cost-effective creation of new personal, broadband ubiquitous services. Unfortunately, service creation over NGN is far from the success of service creation in the Web, especially when it comes to Web 2.0. This paper presents a novel approach to service creation and delivery, with a platform that opens to non-technically skilled users the possibility to create, manage and share their own convergent (NGN-based and Web-based) services. To this end, the business approach to user-generated services is analyzed and the technological bases supporting the proposal are explained.

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This paper presents an alternative Forward Error Correction scheme, based on Reed-Solomon codes, with the aim of protecting the transmission of RTP-multimedia streams: the inter-packet symbol approach. This scheme is based on an alternative bit structure that allocates each symbol of the Reed-Solomon code in several RTP-media packets. This characteristic permits to exploit better the recovery capability of Reed-Solomon codes against bursty packet losses. The performance of our approach has been studied in terms of encoding/decoding time versus recovery capability, and compared with other proposed schemes in the literature. The theoretical analysis has shown that our approach allows the use of a lower size of the Galois Fields compared to other solutions. This lower size results in a decrease of the required encoding/decoding time while keeping a comparable recovery capability. Finally, experimental results have been carried out to assess the performance of our approach compared to other schemes in a simulated environment, where models for wireless and wireline channels have been considered.

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We present a novel framework for encoding latency analysis of arbitrary multiview video coding prediction structures. This framework avoids the need to consider an specific encoder architecture for encoding latency analysis by assuming an unlimited processing capacity on the multiview encoder. Under this assumption, only the influence of the prediction structure and the processing times have to be considered, and the encoding latency is solved systematically by means of a graph model. The results obtained with this model are valid for a multiview encoder with sufficient processing capacity and serve as a lower bound otherwise. Furthermore, with the objective of low latency encoder design with low penalty on rate-distortion performance, the graph model allows us to identify the prediction relationships that add higher encoding latency to the encoder. Experimental results for JMVM prediction structures illustrate how low latency prediction structures with a low rate-distortion penalty can be derived in a systematic manner using the new model.

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This paper focuses on hand biometrics applied to images acquired from a mobile device. The system offers the possibility of identifying individuals based on features extracted from hand pictures obtained with a low-quality camera embedded on a mobile device. Furthermore, the acquisitions have been carried out regardless illumination control, orientation, distance to camera, and similar aspects. In addition, the whole system has been tested with an owned database. Finally, the results obtained (6.0% ± 0.2) and the algorithm structure are both promising in relation to a posterior mobile implementation

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In this paper, a system that allows applying precision agriculture techniques is described. The application is based on the deployment of a team of unmanned aerial vehicles that are able to take georeferenced pictures in order to create a full map by applying mosaicking procedures for postprocessing. The main contribution of this work is practical experimentation with an integrated tool. Contributions in different fields are also reported. Among them is a new one-phase automatic task partitioning manager, which is based on negotiation among the aerial vehicles, considering their state and capabilities. Once the individual tasks are assigned, an optimal path planning algorithm is in charge of determining the best path for each vehicle to follow. Also, a robust flight control based on the use of a control law that improves the maneuverability of the quadrotors has been designed. A set of field tests was performed in order to analyze all the capabilities of the system, from task negotiations to final performance. These experiments also allowed testing control robustness under different weather conditions.

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This article describes a knowledge-based method for generating multimedia descriptions that summarize the behavior of dynamic systems. We designed this method for users who monitor the behavior of a dynamic system with the help of sensor networks and make decisions according to prefixed management goals. Our method generates presentations using different modes such as text in natural language, 2D graphics and 3D animations. The method uses a qualitative representation of the dynamic system based on hierarchies of components and causal influences. The method includes an abstraction generator that uses the system representation to find and aggregate relevant data at an appropriate level of abstraction. In addition, the method includes a hierarchical planner to generate a presentation using a model with dis- course patterns. Our method provides an efficient and flexible solution to generate concise and adapted multimedia presentations that summarize thousands of time series. It is general to be adapted to differ- ent dynamic systems with acceptable knowledge acquisition effort by reusing and adapting intuitive rep- resentations. We validated our method and evaluated its practical utility by developing several models for an application that worked in continuous real time operation for more than 1 year, summarizing sen- sor data of a national hydrologic information system in Spain.

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We argüe that in order to exploit both Independent And- and Or-parallelism in Prolog programs there is advantage in recomputing some of the independent goals, as opposed to all their solutions being reused. We present an abstract model, called the Composition-Tree, for representing and-or parallelism in Prolog Programs. The Composition-tree closely mirrors sequential Prolog execution by recomputing some independent goals rather than fully re-using them. We also outline two environment representation techniques for And-Or parallel execution of full Prolog based on the Composition-tree model abstraction. We argüe that these techniques have advantages over earlier proposals for exploiting and-or parallelism in Prolog.

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We present the design of a distributed object system for Prolog, based on adding remote execution and distribution capabilities to a previously existing object system. Remote execution brings RPC into a Prolog system, and its semantics is easy to express in terms of well-known Prolog builtins. The final distributed object design features state mobility and user-transparent network behavior. We sketch an implementation which provides distributed garbage collection and some degree of tolerance to network failures. We provide a preliminary study of the overhead of the communication mechanism for some test cases.

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A reliability approach to tunnel support design is presented in this paper. The aim of the work is the incorporation of classical Level II techniques to the current design method based on the study of the ground-support interaction diagram.

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The new user cold start issue represents a serious problem in recommender systems as it can lead to the loss of new users who decide to stop using the system due to the lack of accuracy in the recommenda- tions received in that first stage in which they have not yet cast a significant number of votes with which to feed the recommender system?s collaborative filtering core. For this reason it is particularly important to design new similarity metrics which provide greater precision in the results offered to users who have cast few votes. This paper presents a new similarity measure perfected using optimization based on neu- ral learning, which exceeds the best results obtained with current metrics. The metric has been tested on the Netflix and Movielens databases, obtaining important improvements in the measures of accuracy, precision and recall when applied to new user cold start situations. The paper includes the mathematical formalization describing how to obtain the main quality measures of a recommender system using leave- one-out cross validation.