Time-series forecasting of pollutant concentration levels using particle swarm optimization and artificial neural networks

This study evaluates the application of an intelligent hybrid system for time-series forecasting of atmospheric pollutant concentration levels. The proposed method consists of an artificial neural network combined with a particle swarm optimization algorithm. The method not only searches relevant time lags for the correct characterization of the time series, but also determines the best neural network architecture. An experimental analysis is performed using four real time series and the results are shown in terms of six performance measures. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed methodology achieves a fair prediction of the presented pollutant time series by using compact networks.

SYNTHESIS AND BIOLOGICAL ACTIVITY OF NEW SERIES OF ORGANOTIN(IV) ESTERS WITH N,N-DIACETYLGLYCINE

A bioactive N,N-diacetylglycine (NNDAG) and new organotin(IV) complexes (OTCs) (1-7) were synthesized. Spectroscopic techniques were employed to characterize NNDAG and OTCs. FTIR was employed to verify N,N protection of glycine by acetyl groups. The disappearance of υ(OH) at 3000-2600 cm-1 showed de-protonation of free ligand. The Δυ 150<200 cm-1 of OTCs 4-7 verified bidentate coordination with tetrahedral geometry. The Δυ of OTCs1 and 3 was <200 cm-1 exhibitingtrans -octahedral geometry while OTC 2 dimer was assigned a unique sinusoidal view. The 1H NMR spectra of OTCs verified their synthesis by de-protonation of NNDAG and no chemical shift was found downfield for carboxylic acid proton. The 13C, 119Sn NMR and Mass spectrometric data also supported FTIR and 1H NMR descriptions. The OTCs 4, 5, 6 and7 (500 ppm) proved twice as active against Escherichia coli as the standard antibiotic enoxacin (1000 ppm). The promising property of the OTCs (4, 5, 6 and7) is clearly due to their tetrahedral. The OTCs 4and 5 exhibited excellent activity against M. minimum and good activity against T. castaneum.LD50 of all the compounds were determined and OTCs4, 5 and 7 were found to be active.

Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

Analysis of Patterns in Electricity Spot Market Time Series

Due to its non-storability, electricity must be produced at the same time that it is consumed, as a result prices are determined on an hourly basis and thus analysis becomes more challenging. Moreover, the seasonal fluctuations in demand and supply lead to a seasonal behavior of electricity spot prices. The purpose of this thesis is to seek and remove all causal effects from electricity spot prices and remain with pure prices for modeling purposes. To achieve this we use Qlucore Omics Explorer (QOE) for the visualization and the exploration of the data set and Time Series Decomposition method to estimate and extract the deterministic components from the series. To obtain the target series we use regression based on the background variables (water reservoir and temperature). The result obtained is three price series (for Sweden, Norway and System prices) with no apparent pattern.

Thermal decomposition and stability in a series of heterobimetallic carbonyl compounds of the type [Fe(CO)4(HgX)2] (X=Cl, Br, I)

Heterobimetallic carbonyl compounds of the type [Fe(CO)4(HgX)2] (X= Cl, Br, I), which have metal-metal bonds, have been prepared in order to study their thermal stabilities as a function of the halogen coordinated to mercury atoms. The characterization of the above complexes was carried out by elemental analysis, IR and NMR spectroscopies. Their thermal behaviour has been investigated and the final product was identified by IR spectroscopy and by X-ray powder diffractogram.

Comparison Structure Analysis

This study presents an automatic, computer-aided analytical method called Comparison Structure Analysis (CSA), which can be applied to different dimensions of music. The aim of CSA is first and foremost practical: to produce dynamic and understandable representations of musical properties by evaluating the prevalence of a chosen musical data structure through a musical piece. Such a comparison structure may refer to a mathematical vector, a set, a matrix or another type of data structure and even a combination of data structures. CSA depends on an abstract systematic segmentation that allows for a statistical or mathematical survey of the data. To choose a comparison structure is to tune the apparatus to be sensitive to an exclusive set of musical properties. CSA settles somewhere between traditional music analysis and computer aided music information retrieval (MIR). Theoretically defined musical entities, such as pitch-class sets, set-classes and particular rhythm patterns are detected in compositions using pattern extraction and pattern comparison algorithms that are typical within the field of MIR. In principle, the idea of comparison structure analysis can be applied to any time-series type data and, in the music analytical context, to polyphonic as well as homophonic music. Tonal trends, set-class similarities, invertible counterpoints, voice-leading similarities, short-term modulations, rhythmic similarities and multiparametric changes in musical texture were studied. Since CSA allows for a highly accurate classification of compositions, its methods may be applicable to symbolic music information retrieval as well. The strength of CSA relies especially on the possibility to make comparisons between the observations concerning different musical parameters and to combine it with statistical and perhaps other music analytical methods. The results of CSA are dependent on the competence of the similarity measure. New similarity measures for tonal stability, rhythmic and set-class similarity measurements were proposed. The most advanced results were attained by employing the automated function generation – comparable with the so-called genetic programming – to search for an optimal model for set-class similarity measurements. However, the results of CSA seem to agree strongly, independent of the type of similarity function employed in the analysis.

A fluorescence probe study of gemini surfactants in aqueous solution: a comparison between n-2-n and n-6-n series of the alkanediyl-a,w-bis (dimethylalkylammonium bromides)

Two series of alkanediyl-a,w-bis (dimethylalkylammonium bromide (n-2-n and n-6-n; n=8, 10,12, and 16) have been synthesized and their micelles properties studied in aqueous solution using pyrene, pyrenecarboxaldehyde (PCA) and 1,8 anilinonaphtalene sulfonic acid sodium salt (ANS) as fluorescent probes. The micelles from these surfactants have been characterized on the basis of the information provided by micelle-solubilized fluorescent probes. The obtained results indicated that the surfactant concentration at which a marked decrease in l max parameter of pyrenecarboxaldehyde (PCA) occurs corresponds to the CMC determined by conductimetric measurements. Changes in the emission spectra of ANS and PCA observed in the submicellar range for both surfactants series (n-2-n and n-6-n) were interpreted as formation of pre-aggregates. It was found that the dimeric surfactants with long spacer (s= 6) form more hydrated aggregates when compared with those formed by the n-2-n and CnTAB surfactants series. This was attributed to a more difficult packing of n-6-n surfactant molecules to form micelles.

Real-time Musical Pair Improvisation on Mobile Devices

This thesis discusses the design and implementation of a real-time musical pair improvisation scenario for mobile devices. In the scenario transferring musical information over a network connection was required. The suitability of available wireless communication technologies was evaluated and communication was analyzed and designed on multiple layers of TCP/IP protocol stack. Also an application layer protocol was designed and implemented for the scenario. The implementation was integrated into a mobile musical software for children using available software components and libraries although the used platform lead to hardware and software constraints. Software limitations were taken into account in design. The results show that real-time musical improvisation can be implemented with wireless communication and mobile technology. The results also show that link layer had the most significant effect on real-time communication in the scenario.

A Saúde Coletiva no curso de Medicina da Universidade Estadual de Londrina: reflexões iniciais

Este artigo analisa o enfoque da Saúde Coletiva no desenvolvimento curricular na graduação em Medicina da Universidade Estadual de Londrina (UEL), focalizando as diferentes visões de gestores, professores e estudantes sobre o processo de ensino-aprendizagem, introduzindo a análise da progressão do conhecimento em Saúde Coletiva no curso médico. Trata-se de um estudo qualitativo sobre a percepção dos entrevistados, tendo como população de estudo quatro gestores, quatro professores e um grupo focal de estudantes. Os resultados evidenciaram uma importante vinculação das atividades docentes da área junto à rede de serviços de saúde. No entanto, constata-se que os temas da área têm pequena inserção no currículo atual (5%), não considerando os estágios do internato e a estratégia de ensino que vem sendo utilizada. Concluiu-se que os docentes do Departamento de Saúde Coletiva sempre tiveram uma participação de vanguarda nos processos de mudança no curso de Medicina da UEL, havendo um grande esforço em tomar a realidade dos serviços de saúde de Londrina como eixo articulador do ensino em Saúde Coletiva, na tentativa de contribuir para a formação de médicos com maior conhecimento da realidade e comprometidos com o SUS.

A tour through Sweden, Swedish-Lapland, Finland and Denmark. In a series of letters, illustrated with engravings : by Matthew Consett, esq.

P. 143-158 are misnumbered 142-157.

Probabilistic structure of an annual extreme rainfall series of a coastal area of the State of São Paulo, Brazil

This study aimed to describe the probabilistic structure of the annual series of extreme daily rainfall (Preabs), available from the weather station of Ubatuba, State of São Paulo, Brazil (1935-2009), by using the general distribution of extreme value (GEV). The autocorrelation function, the Mann-Kendall test, and the wavelet analysis were used in order to evaluate the presence of serial correlations, trends, and periodical components. Considering the results obtained using these three statistical methods, it was possible to assume the hypothesis that this temporal series is free from persistence, trends, and periodicals components. Based on quantitative and qualitative adhesion tests, it was found that the GEV may be used in order to quantify the probabilities of the Preabs data. The best results of GEV were obtained when the parameters of this function were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The method of L-moments has also shown satisfactory results.

Anaerobic-aerobic treatment of swine wastewater in uasb and batch reactors in series

In this work it was evaluated the performance of two systems of swine wastewater treatment consisting of two-stage upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactors, with and without post-treatment in sequencing batch reactor (SBR), fed continuously, with aerobic phase. The UASB reactors in the first stage had 908 L in the sets I and II, and in the second stage 350 and 188 L, respectively. In the set II the post-treatment was performed in a SBR of 3,000 L. The hydraulic detention times in the anaerobic treatment systems were 100, 75 and 58 h in the set I; 87, 65 and 51 h in the set II; and 240 and 180 h in the SBR. The volumetric organic load applied in the first stage UASB reactors ranged from 6.9 to 12.6 g total COD (L d)-1 in the set I and 7.5 to 9.8 g total COD (L d)-1 in the set II. The average removal efficiencies of total COD, total phosphorus (Ptotal), and Kjeldahl and organic nitrogen (KN and Norg) in the anaerobic treatment systems were similar and reached maximum values of 97%, 64%, 68%, and 98%. In the SBR, the removal efficiencies of total COD and thermotolerant coliforms were up to 62 and 92% resulting, respectively, in effluent concentrations of 135 mg L-1 and 2x10(4)MPN (100 mL)-1. For Ptotal, total nitrogen (TN) and Norg, the average removal efficiencies in the SBR were up to 58, 25 and 73%, respectively.

Tratamento das hérnias inguinais pela técnica de shouldice: descrição da técnica e resultados iniciais

A técnica de Shouldice para o tratamento cirúrgico das hérnias inguinais, apesar dos excelentes resultados descritos na literatura, tem sido pouco difundida em nosso meio, No período de junho de 1992 a abril de 1995, 87 hérnias inguinais foram reparadas seguindo os princípios técnicos da Clínica Shouldice, sendo a grande maioria constituída de hérnias primárias (94,7%), A idade dos pacientes variou de 20 a 85 anos, com média de 54 anos e todos foram operados em caráter eletivo, Neste trabalho apresentamos a descrição técnica detalhada do procedimento e os resultados iniciais (taxa de recidiva global de 3,9%) obtidos em um período médio de 13,2 meses de acompanhamento, que sugerem tratar-se de uma boa técnica para o tratamento cirúrgico das hérnias inguinais.

Transplante de fígado em hospital universitário do Recife: resultados iniciais

OBJETIVO: Apresentar a experiência e enfatizar o aprendizado obtido em um programa incipiente de transplante hepático desenvolvido em Hospital Universitário de Recife-PE. MÉTODO: Foram estudados os primeiros 20 pacientes submetidos a transplante ortotópico de fígado, de maneira simplificada, no período de agosto de 1999 a março de 2002. Foram analisadas as indicações, a reserva funcional hepática pré-operatória, o volume de sangue transfundido, o tempo de isquemia, o tempo de permanência em UTI, a morbidade e a mortalidade. A cirrose por vírus C foi a indicação de transplante em 9 pacientes (45%), seguida de cirrose alcoólica em 7 (35%). Quarenta e cinco por cento dos pacientes foram classificados como CHILD-PUGH A, 35% como B, e apenas 20% como C. RESULTADOS: O tempo de isquemia médio foi de 9h 09' (+ 2h 33'). Foram utilizadas em média 2,88 (+ 2,11) unidades de hemácias. A técnica empregada foi a convencional sem bypass em 90% dos casos e piggyback nos restantes. No pós-operatório, houve um caso de trombose de artéria hepática e outro de veia porta. Oito pacientes apresentaram complicações biliares, todas resolvidas por via endoscópica ou percutânea. A sobrevida global é de 100%, no período de seguimento de 2 a 32 meses. CONCLUSÃO: Conclui-se que é possível realizar transplantes de fígado, com bons resultados, em hospital universitário do Nordeste do Brasil, desde que se reúnam as mínimas condições de estrutura física e recursos humanos.

Transplante de fígado: resultados iniciais

OBJETIVO: Apresentar os resultados iniciais de um serviço de transplante hepático que utiliza a técnica piggyback como padrão. MÉTODO: Análise retrospectiva de 19 transplantes de fígado enfatizando as complicações pós-operatórias e a taxa de sobrevida dos pacientes. A indicação mais freqüente de transplante foi cirrose pelo vírus C em nove pacientes (47%). De acordo com a gravidade da doença hepática, nove casos (47,3%) foram classificados como Child C e oito (42%) como B. Os dois casos restantes foram hepatite fulminante e trombose tardia de artéria hepática. RESULTADOS: Foram realizados 19 transplantes em 18 pacientes com doador cadáver empregando a técnica com preservação da veia cava (piggyback) em 100% dos casos. A indicação mais freqüente de transplante foi cirrose pelo virus C em nove pacientes (47%). De acordo com a gravidade da doença hepática nove casos (47,3%) foram classificados como Child C e oito (42%) como B. Os dois casos restantes foram hepatite fulminante e trombose tardia de artéria hepática. A idade média foi de 45,6 anos. O tempo de isquemia fria do enxerto foi em média de 7,8 horas e a permanência hospitalar média de 18 dias. As complicações mais freqüentes foram as biliares (21%), sendo que três pacientes necessitaram de reoperação e um foi tratado por endoscopia. Houve dois casos de trombose tardia de artéria hepática, sendo um deles tratado por retransplante. Houve um óbito (5,2%) no 8o dia de pós-operatório ocasionado por disfunção primária do enxerto. A sobrevida inicial maior que 30 dias foi de 94,7%. CONCLUSÕES: É possível ter bons resultados no início de um programa de transplante de fígado, desde que haja uma técnica padronizada e uma equipe bem treinada e envolvida com as complicações pós-operatórias.