Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons

Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed.

Fingermark age determinations: legal considerations, review of the literature and practical propositions

The question of the age of fingermarks is often raised in investigations and trials when suspects admit that they have left their fingermarks at a crime scene but allege that the contact occurred at a different time than the crime and for legal reasons. In the first part of this review article, examples from American appellate court cases will be used to demonstrate that there is a lack of consensus among American courts regarding the admissibility and weight of testimony from expert witnesses who provide opinions about the age of fingermarks. Of course, these issues are not only encountered in America but have also been reported elsewhere, for example in Europe. The disparity in the way fingermark dating cases were managed in these examples is probably due to the fact that no methodology has been validated and accepted by the forensic science community so far. The second part of this review article summarizes the studies reported on fingermark dating in the literature and highlights the fact that most proposed methodologies still suffer from limitations preventing their use in practice. Nevertheless, several approaches based on the evolution of aging parameters detected in fingermark residue over time appear to show promise for the fingermark dating field. Based on these approaches, the definition of a formal methodological framework for fingermark dating cases is proposed in order to produce relevant temporal information. This framework identifies which type of information could and should be obtained about fingermark aging and what developments are still required to scientifically address dating issues.

Disease profiles of detainees in the Canton of Vaud in Switzerland: gender and age differences in substance abuse, mental health and chronic health conditions.

BACKGROUND: Literature on the disease profile of prisoners that differentiates by age and gender remains sparse. This study aimed to describe the health of correctional inmates in terms of substance abuse problems and mental and somatic health conditions, and compare it by gender and age. METHODS: This study examined cross-sectional data from the Canton of Vaud in Switzerland on the health conditions of detainees who were in prison on January 1, 2011 or entered prison in 2011. Health conditions validated by physician examination were reported using the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) version 10. The analyses were descriptive by groups of prisoners: the entire sample (All), Men, Older adults and Women. RESULTS: A total of 1,664 individuals were included in the analysis. Men comprised 91.5 % of the sample and had a mean age of 33 years. The other 8.5 % were women and had an average age of 39. Older adults (i.e., age 50 and older) represented 7 % of the total sample. Overall, 80 % of inmates were non-Swiss citizens, but the proportion of Swiss prisoners was higher among the older adults (51 %) and women (29 %). Overall, 41 % of inmates self-reported substance abuse problems. Of those, 27 % were being treated by psychiatrists for behavioral disorders related to substance abuse. Chronic infectious diseases were found in 9 % of the prison population. In addition, 27 % of detainees suffered from serious mental health conditions. Gender and age had an influence on the disease profile of this sample: compared to the entire prison population, the older inmates were less likely to misuse illegal drugs and to suffer from communicable infections but exhibited more problems with alcohol and a higher burden of chronic health conditions. Female prisoners were more disposed to mental health problems (including drug abuse) and infectious diseases. In terms of chronic diseases, women suffered from the same conditions as men, but the diseases were more prevalent in women. CONCLUSION: It is important to understand the different disease profiles of prisoners by gender and age, as it helps identify the needs of different groups and tailor age-and gender-specific interventions.

Cognitive Development of Very Low Birth Weight Children from Infancy to Pre-school Age

The survival of preterm born infants has increased but the prevalence of long-term morbidities has still remained high. Preterm born children are at an increased risk for various developmental impairments including both severe neurological deficits as well as deficits in cognitive development. According to the literature the developmental outcome perspective differs between countries, centers, and eras. Definitions of preterm infant vary between studies, and the follow-up has been carried out with diverse methods making the comparison less reliable. It is essential to offer parents upto-date information about the outcome of preterm infants born in the same area. A centralized follow-up of children at risk makes it possible to monitor the consequences of changes in the treatment practices of hospitals on developmental outcome. This thesis is part of a larger regional, prospective multidisciplinary follow-up project entitled “Development and Functioning of Very Low Birth Weight Infants from Infancy to School Age” (PIeniPAinoisten RIskilasten käyttäytyminen ja toimintakyky imeväisiästä kouluikään, PIPARI). The thesis consists of four original studies that present data of very low birth weight (VLBW) infants born between 2001 and 2006, who are followed up from the neonatal period until the age of five years. The main outcome measure was cognitive development and secondary outcomes were significant neurological deficits (cerebral palsy, CP, deafness, and blindness). In Study I, the early crying and fussing behavior of preterm infants was studied using parental diaries, and the relation of crying behavior and cognitive and motor development at the age of two years was assessed. In Study II, the developmental outcome (cognitive, CP, deafness, and blindness) at the age of two years was studied in relation to demographic, antenatal, neonatal, and brain imaging data. Development was studied in relationship to a full-term born control group born in the same hospital. In Study III, the stability of cognitive development was studied in VLBW and full-term groups by comparing the outcomes at the ages of two and five years. Finally, in Study IV the precursors of reading skills (phonological processing, rapid automatized naming, and letter knowledge) were assessed for VLBW and full-term children at the age of five years. Pre-reading skills were studied in relation to demographic, antenatal, neonatal, and brain imaging data. The main findings of the thesis were that VLBW infants who fussed or cried more in the infancy were not at greater risk for problems in their cognitive development. However, crying was associated with poorer motor development. The developmental outcome of the present population was better that has been reported earlier and this improvement covered also cognitive development. However, the difference to fullterm born peers was still significant. Major brain pathology and intestinal perforation were independent significant risk factors for adverse outcome, also when several individual risk factors were controlled for. Cognitive development at the age of two years was strongly related with development at the age of five years, stressing the importance of the early assessment, and the possibility for early interventions. Finally, VLBW children had poorer pre-reading skills compared with their full-term born peers, but the IQ was an important mediator even when children with mental retardation were excluded from the analysis. The findings suggest that counseling parents about the developmental perspectives of their preterm infant should be based on data covering the same birth hospital. Neonatal brain imaging data and neonatal morbidity are important predictors for developmental outcome. The findings of the present study stress the importance of both short-term (two years) and long-term (five years) follow-ups for the individual, and for improving the quality of care.

Factors associated with fragility fractures in women over 50 years of age: a population-based household survey

PURPOSE: To analyze the prevalence of and factors associated with fragility fractures in Brazilian women aged 50 years and older. METHODS: This cross-sectional population survey, conducted between May 10 and October 31, 2011, included 622 women aged >50 years living in a city in southeastern Brazil. A questionnaire was administered to each woman by a trained interviewer. The associations between the occurrence of a fragility fracture after age 50 years and sociodemographic data, health-related habits and problems, self-perception of health and evaluation of functional capacity were determined by the χ2 test and Poisson regression using the backward selection criteria. RESULTS: The mean age of the 622 women was 64.1 years. The prevalence of fragility fractures was 10.8%, with 1.8% reporting hip fracture. In the final statistical model, a longer time since menopause (PR 1.03; 95%CI 1.01-1.05; p<0.01) and osteoporosis (PR 1.97; 95%CI 1.27-3.08; p<0.01) were associated with a higher prevalence of fractures. CONCLUSIONS: These findings may provide a better understanding of the risk factors associated with fragility fractures in Brazilian women and emphasize the importance of performing bone densitometry.

Relationship between weight, age and hatching success and the concentration of heavy metals in nestling blue macaw (Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus Latham, 1790) in the Pantanal,Mato Grosso do Sul

Abstract: The concentration of heavy metals (Cr, Fe, Al, As, Cd, Cu, Pb, Mo, Ni, Se and Zn) was evaluated in the blood of nestling blue macaws (Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus) captured in the Pantanal, Mato Grosso do Sul (n=26) in 2012; this was based on the hypothesis that these birds exhibit levels of these heavy metals in their organism and that these interfere in hatching success, weight and age of the chicks. Blood samples were digested with nitric acid and hydrochloric acid and the quantification of metals was performed by ICP-OES (Optical Emission Spectroscopy and Inductively Coupled Plasma). Blood samples of nestlings showed concentrations of Cr (0.10μg/g) Fe (3.06μg/g) Al (3.46μg/g), Cd (0.25μg/g) Cu (0.74μg/g), Mo (0.33μg/g), Ni (0.61μg/g), Se (0.98μg/g), and Zn (2.08μg/g). The levels of heavy metals found were not associated with weight, age and hatching success of the chicks.

Category fluency test: effects of age, gender and education on total scores, clustering and switching in Brazilian Portuguese-speaking subjects

Verbal fluency tests are used as a measure of executive functions and language, and can also be used to evaluate semantic memory. We analyzed the influence of education, gender and age on scores in a verbal fluency test using the animal category, and on number of categories, clustering and switching. We examined 257 healthy participants (152 females and 105 males) with a mean age of 49.42 years (SD = 15.75) and having a mean educational level of 5.58 (SD = 4.25) years. We asked them to name as many animals as they could. Analysis of variance was performed to determine the effect of demographic variables. No significant effect of gender was observed for any of the measures. However, age seemed to influence the number of category changes, as expected for a sensitive frontal measure, after being controlled for the effect of education. Educational level had a statistically significant effect on all measures, except for clustering. Subject performance (mean number of animals named) according to schooling was: illiterates, 12.1; 1 to 4 years, 12.3; 5 to 8 years, 14.0; 9 to 11 years, 16.7, and more than 11 years, 17.8. We observed a decrease in performance in these five educational groups over time (more items recalled during the first 15 s, followed by a progressive reduction until the fourth interval). We conclude that education had the greatest effect on the category fluency test in this Brazilian sample. Therefore, we must take care in evaluating performance in lower educational subjects.

The polymorphism of the serotonin-2A receptor T102C is associated with age

Epidemiological investigations suggest that T102C polymorphism of gene 5-HT2A may be associated with mean life span because diseases and behaviors related to this polymorphism, such as schizophrenia, suicide, aggression, and addiction, may potentially shorten mean life span. A sample of 687 individuals without previous neuropsychiatric disease was genotyped and separated into 3 groups according to their gender and age: 14-45 years old, 46-64 years old and 65-100 years old. Molecular genotyping was performed using the technique of polymerase chain reaction followed by restriction fragment length polymorphism using HpaII restriction enzyme. 5-HT2A genotype frequencies were: TT = 21.5% (148), CC = 16.6% (114) and TC = 61.9% (425) and allele frequencies were T = 52.5% and C = 46.5%. Significant differences were found between mean age of the TT genotype carriers (60.27 ± 12.60 years) and TC genotype carriers (56.80 ± 13.18 years) of T102C polymorphism of gene 5-HT2A (P = 0.026) as well as the age groups (P = 0.012). Carriers of genotype TT were older than the other two genotypes, whereas carriers of genotype CC had an intermediate age compared with TT and CC subjects. The present results demonstrate an association between T102C polymorphism of gene 5-HT2A and age. Our results suggest that T102C polymorphism of gene 5-HT2A is associated with mean life span, and thus this gene becomes a possible candidate for the group of adaptive genes to meat consumption proposed in the literature. Further studies should be conducted in order to elucidate this association.

Prediction of neurodevelopment and neuromotor trajectories in very preterm born children up to 11 years of age: PIPARI Study

Very preterm birth is a risk for brain injury and abnormal neurodevelopment. While the incidence of cerebral palsy has decreased due to advances in perinatal and neonatal care, the rate of less severe neuromotor problems continues to be high in very prematurely born children. Neonatal brain imaging can aid in identifying children for closer follow-up and in providing parents information on developmental risks. This thesis aimed to study the predictive value of structural brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at term age, serial neonatal cranial ultrasound (cUS), and structured neurological examinations during the longitudinal follow-up for the neurodevelopment of very preterm born children up to 11 years of age as a part of the PIPARI Study (The Development and Functioning of Very Low Birth Weight Infants from Infancy to School Age). A further aim was to describe the associations between regional brain volumes and long-term neuromotor profile. The prospective follow-up comprised of the assessment of neurosensory development at 2 years of corrected age, cognitive development at 5 years of chronological age, and neuromotor development at 11 years of age. Neonatal brain imaging and structured neurological examinations predicted neurodevelopment at all age-points. The combination of neurological examination and brain MRI or cUS improved the predictive value of neonatal brain imaging alone. Decreased brain volumes associated with neuromotor performance. At the age of 11 years, the majority of the very preterm born children had age-appropriate neuromotor development and after-school sporting activities. Long-term clinical follow-up is recommended at least for all very preterm infants with major brain pathologies.

Vegetational history and geochronology of several sites in South Southwestern Ontario with discussion on mastodon extinction in Southern Ontario /

This study has three purposes: to establish a chronologically controlled vegetational history for a number of sites in south Southwestern Ontario; to utilize the resulting data to support and/or add to the current understanding of Quaternary geology and stratigraphy, and the glacial and postglacial history of the Great Lakes in south Southwestern Ontario; and to attempt to propose a possible explanation for the extinction of the mastodon in Southern Ontario. Palynological and geochronological analyses were conducted on material collected from eleven sites (east to west): Verbeke Mastodon Site, Woloshko Mastodon Site, Walker Pond II, Pond Mills I, Lake Hunger Bog, Bouckaert Site. Mabee Site, Cornell Bog. Colles Lake I, Folden Mastodon Site and Forest Pond. Individual geochronologically controlled (where possible) vegetational histories were reconstructed for each of the sites investigated. The results of the individual studies, when considered in overview. indicated the existance of an established closed boreal forest throughout south Southwestern Ontario by 10,000 years B.P. This evidence for a significant climatic change coincident throughout south Southwestern Ontario supports the proposed age of 10,000 years B.P. for the Pleistocene/Holocene Boundary (Terasmae, 1972). Remnant patches of 'open spruce parkland' persisted in small local 'wet' areas. It was in these areas that the mastodon was restricted during early Holocene time. With continued encroachment by the surrounding boreal forest, possibly speeded up by this browser's destructive feeding habits, the spruce enclaves shrank and the mastodon became extinct in south Southwestern Ontario. The results of this thesis basically support Dreimanis' (1967, 1968) proposed 'Environmental-Climatic' theory for mastodon extinction. It is suggested that increased dryness during the present interglacial compared to the climate of earlier interglacials may be the key to unravelling the problem of mastodon extinction in eastern North America.

Buddhism and the earth : environmental thought in early Buddhist philosophy

Introduction Fundamental to the philosophy of Buddhism, is the insight that there is "unsatisfactohness" (dukkha) in the world and that it can be eliminated through the practice of the Noble Eight Fold Path. Buddhism also maintains that the world as we experience and entities that exist are bereft of any substantiality. Instead existence is manifest through dependent origination. All things are conditional; nothing is permanent. However, inherent in this dependent existence is the interconnectedness of all beings and their subjection to the cosmic law of karma. Part of cultivating the Eight Fold path includes a deep compassion for all other living things, 'trapped' within this cycle of dependent origination. This compassion or empathy (karuna) is crucial to the Buddhist path to enlightenment. It is this emphasis on karuna that shows itself in Mahayana Buddhism with respect to the theory of the boddhisatva (or Buddha-to-be) since the boddhisatva willingly postpones his/her own enlightenment to help others on the same path. One of the ramifications of the theory of dependent origination is that there is no anthropocentric bias placed on humans over the natural world. Paradoxically the doctrine of non-self becomes an ontology within Buddhism, culminating in the Mayahana realization that a common boundary exists between samsara and nirvana. Essential to this ontology is the life of dharma or a moral life. Ethics is not separated from ontology. As my thesis will show, this basic outlook of Buddhism has implications toward our understanding of the Buddhist world-view with respect to the current human predicament concerning the environment. While humans are the only ones who can 4 attain "Buddhahood", it is because of our ability to understand what it means to follow the Eight fold path and act accordingly. Because of the interconnectedness of all entities {dharmas), there is an ontological necessity to eliminate suffering and 'save the earth' because if we allow the earth to suffer, we ALL suffer. This can be understood as an ethical outlook which can be applied to our interaction with and treatment of the natural environment or environment in the broadest sense, not just trees plants rocks etc. It is an approach to samsara and all within it. It has been argued that there is no ontology in Buddhism due to its doctrine of "non-self". However, it is a goal of this thesis to argue that there does exist an original ontology in Buddhism; that according to it, the nature of Being is essentially neither "Being nor non-being nor not non-being" as illustrated by Nagarjuna. Within this ontology is engrained an ethic or 'right path' (samma marga) that is fundamental to our being and this includes a compassionate relationship to our environment. In this dissertation I endeavour to trace the implications that the Buddhist worldview has for the environmental issues that assail us in our age of technology. I will explore questions such as: can the Buddhist way of thinking help us comprehend and possibly resolve the environmental problems of our day and age? Are there any current environmental theories which are comparable to or share common ground with the classical Buddhist doctrines? I will elucidate some fundamental doctrines of early Buddhism from an environmental perspective as well as identify some comparable modern environmental theories such as deep ecology and general systems theory, that seem to share in the wisdom of classical Buddhism and have much to gain from a deeper appreciation of Buddhism.

Systematic stratigraphic study of cenozoic sediments of Kerala with Special reference to warkalli and quilon formations

Quaternary stratigraphy of the Kerala coast and the genetic aspects of the sediments are discussed. The age of limeshells, and peaty sediments determined by radio carbon dating have been used for reconstruction of sea level changes. Evolution of red sands occurring in some parts of the coastal tract of Kerala is also discussed, based on textural parameters and quartz grain morphology.

Effect of two opposing changes in photoperiod upon age at first egg in layer-hybrid pullets

An experiment was designed to test the response of growing pullets to two changes in photoperiod (an increase from 8 to 14 h followed 5 weeks later by the reverse change, or a decrease from 14 to 8 h followed by an increase). The first change was made either at 35 days or at 56 days of age, to test the influence of age on the responses observed. Control groups were kept oil constant 8-h and constant 14-h photoperiods and the responses to appropriate single changes were also tested. Mean age at first egg varied from 111 days for birds given a single increment at 56 days to 166 days for pullets given an increase in photoperiod at 35 days followed by a reduction at 70 days. Responses to the single changes confirmed earlier reports that sensitivity to change in photoperiod varies with age ill a manner that is quantitatively predictable. Responses to the double changes could be explained by Postulating that the initial change altered the 'physiological age' of the bird to all extent that was also quantitatively predictable. An early increase in photoperiod advances sexual development and makes the bird more sensitive to a subsequent decrease than would be expected by reference to its chronological age. An early decrease in photoperiod delays sexual development, which can have the effect of making the bird more or less sensitive to a subsequent increase since, ill layer-strain pullets, sensitivity to an increment in photoperiod normally increases Lip to about 9 weeks of age but decreases thereafter. Mean age at first egg predicted using these concepts was very highly correlated with observed age at first egg. The results provide a rational basis for constructing a model to predict age at first egg for any combination of increases and decreases in photoperiod applied to growing pullets.

The timing of eukaryotic evolution: Does a relaxed molecular clock reconcile proteins and fossils?

The use of nucleotide and amino acid sequences allows improved understanding of the timing of evolutionary events of life on earth. Molecular estimates of divergence times are, however, controversial and are generally much more ancient than suggested by the fossil record. The limited number of genes and species explored and pervasive variations in evolutionary rates are the most likely sources of such discrepancies. Here we compared concatenated amino acid sequences of 129 proteins from 36 eukaryotes to determine the divergence times of several major clades, including animals, fungi, plants, and various protists. Due to significant variations in their evolutionary rates, and to handle the uncertainty of the fossil record, we used a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock simultaneously calibrated by six paleontological constraints. We show that, according to 95% credibility intervals, the eukaryotic kingdoms diversified 950-1,259 million years ago (Mya), animals diverged from choanoflagellates 761-957 Mya, and the debated age of the split between protostomes and deuterostomes occurred 642-761 Mya. The divergence times appeared to be robust with respect to prior assumptions and paleontological calibrations. Interestingly, these relaxed clock time estimates are much more recent than those obtained under the assumption of a global molecular clock, yet bilaterian diversification appears to be approximate to100 million years more ancient than the Cambrian boundary.

Proposing a way forward: a review of standardisation in the use of age categories and ageing techniques in osteological analysis (2004 to 2009)

This study assesses the current state of adult skeletal age-at-death estimation in biological anthropology through analysis of data published in recent research articles from three major anthropological and archaeological journals (2004–2009). The most commonly used adult ageing methods, age of ‘adulthood’, age ranges and the maximum age reported for ‘mature’ adults were compared. The results showed a wide range of variability in the age at which individuals were determined to be adult (from 14 to 25 years), uneven age ranges, a lack of standardisation in the use of descriptive age categories and the inappropriate application of some ageing methods for the sample being examined. Such discrepancies make comparisons between skeletal samples difficult, while the inappropriate use of some techniques make the resultant age estimations unreliable. At a time when national and even global comparisons of past health are becoming prominent, standardisation in the terminology and age categories used to define adults within each sample is fundamental. It is hoped that this research will prompt discussions in the osteological community (both nationally and internationally) about what defines an ‘adult’, how to standardise the age ranges that we use and how individuals should be assigned to each age category. Skeletal markers have been proposed to help physically identify ‘adult’ individuals.