Tidal fluctuations in a leaky confined aquifer: Dynamic effects of an overlying phreatic aquifer

Tidal fluctuations in a leaky confined coastal aquifer are damped significantly due to leakage into an overlying phreatic aquifer. Jiao and Tang [1999] presented an analytical solution to a simple model describing this phenomenon. Their solution assumes that the tidal fluctuations in the overlying phreatic aquifer are negligible (i.e,, a static phreatic aquifer), Here we examine dynamic effects of the overlying aquifer based on a new approximate analytical solution. The numerical results indicate that the dynamic effects can be significant for a relatively large leakage and a high transmissivity of the phreatic aquifer.

BeachWin: modelling groundwater effects on swash sediment transport and beach profile changes

Field and laboratory observations have shown that a relatively low beach groundwater table enhances beach accretion. These observations have led to the beach dewatering technique (artificially lowering the beach water table) for combating beach erosion. Here we present a process-based numerical model that simulates the interacting wave motion on the beach. coastal groundwater flow, swash sediment transport and beach profile changes. Results of model simulations demonstrate that the model replicates accretionary effects of a low beach water table on beach profile changes and has the potential to become a tool for assessing the effectiveness of beach dewatering systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human response to environmental noise: The role of perceived control

Negative impacts of noise exposure on health and performance may result in part from learned helplessness, the syndrome of deficits typically produced by exposure to uncontrollable events. People may perceive environmental noise to be uncontrollable, and several effects of noise exposure appear to parallel learned helplessness deficits. In the present socioacoustic survey (N = 1,015), perceived control over aircraft noise correlated negatively with some effects of noise (though not others). Furthermore, these effects were better predicted by perceived control than by noise level. These observational data support the claim that learned helplessness contributes to the effects of noise exposure.

Effects of settler size and density on early post-settlement survival of Ciona intestinalis in the field

Effects of variation in larval quality on post-metamorphic performance in marine invertebrates are increasingly apparent. Recently, it has been shown that variation in offspring size can also strongly affect post-settlement survival, but variation in environmental conditions can mediate this effect. The quality of habitat into which marine invertebrate larvae settle can vary markedly, and 1 influence on quality is the number of conspecifics present. We tested the effects of settler size and settler density on early (1 wk after settlement) post-settlement survival in the field for the solitary ascidian Ciona intestinalis. Larger settlers survived better than smaller settlers, within and among groups of siblings. Increases in the density of settlers decreased survival, but the density-dependent effects were much stronger for smaller settlers. We suggest that larger settlers are better able to cope with intra-specific competition because they have greater energetic reserves or a greater capacity to feed than smaller settlers.

Regional Effects of Port Infrastructure: A Spatial CGE Application to Brazil

This article attempts to elucidate one of the mechanisms that link trade barriers, in the form of port costs, and subsequent growth and regional inequality. Prior attention has focused on inland or link costs, but port costs can be considered as a further barrier to enhancing trade liberalization and growth. In contrast to a highway link, congestion at a port may have severe impacts that are spread over space and time whereas highway link congestion may be resolved within several hours. Since a port is part of the transportation network, any congestion/disruption is likely to ripple throughout the hinterland. In this sense, it is important to model properly the role nodal components play in the context of spatial models and international trade. In this article, a spatial computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that is integrated to a transport network system is presented to simulate the impacts of increases in port efficiency in Brazil. The role of ports of entry and ports of exit are explicitly considered to grasp the holistic picture in an integrated interregional system. Measures of efficiency for different port locations are incorporated in the calibration of the model and used as the benchmark in our simulations. Three scenarios are evaluated: (1) an overall increase in port efficiency in Brazil to achieve international standards; (2) efficiency gains associated with decentralization in port management in Brazil; and (3) regionally differentiated increases in port efficiency to reach the boundary of the national efficiency frontier.

Modelling the Distribution of Ischaemic Stroke-Specific Survival Time Using an EM-based Mixture Approach with Random Effects Adjustment

A two-component survival mixture model is proposed to analyse a set of ischaemic stroke-specific mortality data. The survival experience of stroke patients after index stroke may be described by a subpopulation of patients in the acute condition and another subpopulation of patients in the chronic phase. To adjust for the inherent correlation of observations due to random hospital effects, a mixture model of two survival functions with random effects is formulated. Assuming a Weibull hazard in both components, an EM algorithm is developed for the estimation of fixed effect parameters and variance components. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the two-component survival mixture model estimators. Simulation results confirm the applicability of the proposed model in a small sample setting. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Geographical variation in offspring size effects across generations

Offspring size is thought to strongly affect offspring fitness and many studies have shown strong offspring size/fitness relationships in marine and terrestrial organisms. This relationship is strongly mitigated by local environmental conditions and the optimal offspring size that mothers should produce will vary among different environments. It is assumed that offspring size will consistently affect the same traits among populations but this assumption has not been tested. Here I use a common garden experiment to examine the effects of offspring size on subsequent performance for the marine bryozoan Bugula neritina using larvae from two very different populations. The local conditions at one population (Williamstown) favour early reproduction whereas the other population (Pt. Wilson) favours early growth. Despite being placed in the same habitat, the effects of parental larval size were extremely variable and crossed generations. For larvae from Williamstown, parental larval size positively affected initial colony growth and larval size in the next generation. For larvae from the other population, parental larval size positively affected colony fecundity and negatively affected larval size in the next generation. Traditionally, exogenous factors have been viewed as the sole source of variation in offspring size/fitness relationship but these results show that endogenous factors (maternal source population) can also cause variation in this crucial relationship. It appears offspring size effects can be highly variable among populations and organisms can adapt to local conditions without changing the size of their offspring.

Mammography screening participation: effects of a media campaign targeting Italian-speaking women

Objectives: To evaluate the effect of a radio and newspaper campaign encouraging Italian-speaking women aged 50-69 years to attend a population-based mammography screening program. Methods: A series of radio scripts and newspaper advertisements ran weekly in the Italian-language media over two, four-week periods. Monthly mammography screens were analysed to determine if numbers of Italian-speaking women in the program increased during the two campaign periods, using interrupted time series regression analysis. A survey of Italian-speaking women attending BreastScreen NSW during the campaign period (n=240) investigated whether individuals had heard or seen the advertisements. Results: There was no statistically significant difference in the number of initial or subsequent mammograms in Italian-speaking women between the campaign periods and the period prior to (or after) the campaign. Twenty per cent of respondents cited the Italian media campaign as a prompt to attend. Fifty per cent had heard the radio ad and 30% had seen the newspaper ad encouraging Italian-speaking women to attend BSNSW. The most common prompt to attend was the BSNSW invitation letter, followed by information or recommendation from a GP. Conclusion: Radio and newspaper advertisements developed for the Italian community did not significantly increase attendance to BSNSW. Implications: Measures of program effectiveness based on self-report may not correspond to aggregate screening behaviour. The development of the media campaign in conjunction with the Italian community, and the provision of appropriate levels of resourcing, did not ensure the media campaign's success.

The effects of air pollution on hospitalizations for cardiovascular disease in elderly people in Australian and New Zealand cities

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to estimate the associations between outdoor air pollution and cardiovascular hospital admissions for the elderly. DESIGN: Associations were assessed using the case-crossover method for seven cities: Auckland and Christchurch, New Zealand; and Brisbane, Canberra, Melbourne, Perth, and Sydney Australia. Results were combined across cities using a random-effects meta-analysis and stratified for two adult age groups: 15-64 years and >= 65 years of age (elderly). Pollutants considered were nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, daily measures of particulate matter (PM) and ozone. Where multiple pollutant associations were found, a matched case-control analysis was used to identify the most consistent association. RESULTS: In the elderly, all pollutants except 03 were significantly associated with five categories or cardiovascular disease admissions. No associations were found for arrhythmia and stroke. For a 0.9-ppm increase in CO, there were significant increases in elderly hospital admissions for total cardiovascular disease (2.2%), all cardiac disease (2.8%), cardiac failure (6.0%), ischemic heart disease (2.3%), and myocardial infarction (2.9%). There was some heterogeneity between cities, possibly due to differences in humidity and the percentage of elderly people. In matched analyses, CO had the most consistent association. CONCLUSIONS. The results suggest that air pollution arising from common emission sources for CO, NO2, and PM (e.g., motor vehicle exhausts) has significant associations with adult cardiovascular hospital admissions, especially in the elderly, at air pollution concentrations below normal health guidelines. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL AND PROFESSIONAL PRACTICE: Elderly populations in Australia need to be protected from air pollution arising from outdoor sources to reduce cardiovascular disease.

Beach water table fluctuations due to wave run-up: Capillarity effects

High-frequency beach water table fluctuations due to wave run-up and rundown have been observed in the field [Waddell, 1976]. Such fluctuations affect the infiltration/exfiltration process across the beach face and the interstitial oxygenation process in the beach ecosystem. Accurate representation of high-frequency water table fluctuations is of importance in the modeling of (1) the interaction between seawater and groundwater, more important, the effects on swash sediment transport and (2) the biological activities in the beach ecosystem. Capillarity effects provide a mechanism for high-frequency water table fluctuations. Previous modeling approaches adopted the assumption of saturated flow only and failed to predict the propagation of high-frequency fluctuations in the aquifer. In this paper we develop a modified kinematic boundary condition (kbc) for the water table which incorporates capillarity effects. The application of this kbc in a boundary element model enables the simulation of high-frequency water table fluctuations due to wave run-up. Numerical tests were carried out for a rectangular domain with small-amplitude oscillations; the behavior of water table responses was found to be similar to that predicted by an analytical solution based on the one-dimensional Boussinesq equation. The model was also applied to simulate the water table response to wave run-up on a doping beach. The results showed similar features of water table fluctuations observed in the field. In particular, these fluctuations are standing wave-like with the amplitude becoming increasingly damped inland. We conclude that the modified kbc presented here is a reasonable approximation of capillarity effects on beach water table fluctuations. However, further model validation is necessary before the model can confidently be used to simulate high-frequency water table fluctuations due to wave run-up.

A review of health effects of aircraft noise

Social surveys have established dose-response relationships between aircraft noise and annoyance, with a number of psychological symptoms being positively related to annoyance. Evidence that exposure to aircraft noise is associated with higher psychiatric hospital admission rates is mixed. Some evidence exists of an association between aircraft noise exposure and use of psychotropic medications. People with a pre-existing psychological or psychiatric condition may be more susceptible to the effects of exposure to aircraft noise. Aircraft noise can produce effects on electroencephalogram sleep patterns and cause wakefulness and difficulty in sleeping. Attendances at general practitioners, self-reported health problems and use of medications, have been associated with exposure to aircraft noise, but some findings are inconsistent. Some association between aircraft noise exposure and elevated mean blood pressure has been observed in cross-sectional studies of schoolchildren, but with little confirmation from cohort studies. There is no convincing evidence to suggest that all-cause or cause-specific mortality is increased by exposure to aircraft noise. There is no strong evidence that aircraft noise has significant perinatal effects. Using the World Health Organization definition of health, which includes positive mental and social wellbeing, aircraft noise is responsible for considerable ill-health. However, population-based studies have not found strong evidence that people living near or under aircraft flight paths suffer higher rates of clinical morbidity or mortality as a consequence of exposure to aircraft noise. A dearth of high quality studies in this area precludes drawing substantive conclusions.

Asthma mortality in Australia 1920-94: Age, period, and cohort effects

Study objective-To investigate asthma mortality during 1920-94 in Australia in order to assess the relative role of period and birth cohort effects. Design-Asthma mortality (both sexes) was age standardised and examined for changes over time. The data were also examined for age, period, and cohort (APC) effects using Poisson regression modelling. Setting-National Australian mortality data. Participants-Population (both sexes) aged 15-34 years, 1920-94. Main results-Age adjusted period rates indicate an increase in asthma mortality during the 1950s, and increases and subsequent falls (epidemics) during the mid 1960s and late 1980s. APC modelling suggested an increasing cohort effect (adjusted for both age and period) from the birth cohort 1950-54 onwards. Period effects (adjusted for age and cohort) are characterised by an increase in the 1950s (possibly due to changes in diagnostic labelling), minimal or no increases in the mid 1960s and late 1980s (where period peaks had been noted when data were adjusted for age only), and declines in mortality risk subsequent to the periods where age-period analysis had noted increases. Thus, in Australia, some of the mid 1960s epidemic in asthma deaths, and all of the late 1980s mortality increase, seem to be attributable to cohort effects. Conclusions-The increase in asthma mortality cohort effect is consistent with empirical evidence of recent increases in prevalence (and presumably incidence) of asthma in Australia, and suggests the need for more research into the underlying environmental aetiology of this condition.

Evaluation of the cytogenetic effects of I-131 preceded by recombinant human thyrotropin (rhTSH) in peripheral lymphocytes of Wistar rats

The present study was carried out to investigate the cytogenetic effects of therapeutic exposure to radioiodine preceded by rhTSH in an animal model. Three groups of Wistar rats (n = 6) were used: one group was treated only with I-131 (11.1 MBq/animal); the other two groups received rhTSH (1.2 mu g/rat of either Thyrogen or rhTSH-IPEN, respectively) 24 h before administration of radioiodine. The percentage of lymphocytes with chromosome aberrations and the average number of aberrations and of dicentrics per cell were determined on blood samples collected 24 h, 7 and 30 days after administration of I-131. The data show that the treatment with radioiodine alone or associated with rhTSH resulted in a greater quantity of chromosome alterations in relation to basal values after 24 h, with a gradual decline after 7 and 30 days of treatment. An increase in chromosome alterations was also seen after rhTSH treatment alone. Neither of the treatments, i.e., with I-131 alone or associated with hormone, resulted in an aneugenic effect or influenced the kinetics of cellular proliferation in rat blood lymphocytes. There was no significant difference between the cytogenetic effects of Thyrogen and rhTSH-IPEN treatment. These data suggest that the treatment with radioiodine, associated or not with rhTSH, affects to a limited extent a relatively small number of cells although the occurrence of late stochastic effects could not be discarded.