A Dynamic forecasting model for the Finnish pulp export price

Summary

Visuo-spatial processing in a dynamic and a static working memory paradigm in schizophrenia.

Recent findings suggest that the visuo-spatial sketchpad (VSSP) may be divided into two sub-components processing dynamic or static visual information. This model may be useful to elucidate the confusion of data concerning the functioning of the VSSP in schizophrenia. The present study examined patients with schizophrenia and matched controls in a new working memory paradigm involving dynamic (the Ball Flight Task - BFT) or static (the Static Pattern Task - SPT) visual stimuli. In the BFT, the responses of the patients were apparently based on the retention of the last set of segments of the perceived trajectory, whereas control subjects relied on a more global strategy. We assume that the patients' performances are the result of a reduced capacity in chunking visual information since they relied mainly on the retention of the last set of segments. This assumption is confirmed by the poor performance of the patients in the static task (SPT), which requires a combination of stimulus components into object representations. We assume that the static/dynamic distinction may help us to understand the VSSP deficits in schizophrenia. This distinction also raises questions about the hypothesis that visuo-spatial working memory can simply be dissociated into visual and spatial sub-components.

Relevance of dynamic wetting in viscous fingering patterns

We demonstrate that wetting effects at moving contact lines have a strong impact in viscous fingering patterns. Experiments in a rotating Hele-Shaw (HS) cell, dry or prewetted, show consistent morphological differences. When the wetting fluid invades a dry region, contact angle dynamics yield a kinetic contribution to the interface pressure drop that scales with capillary number as Ca2¿3 but is significantly larger than the Park-Homsy kinetic correction. Numerical results are in very good agreement with experiments and show that standard HS equations work best for prewetted cells.

Carbon balance and crop residue management in dynamic equilibrium under a no-till system in Campos Gerais

The adoption of no-tillage systems (NT) and the maintenance of crop residues on the soil surface result in the long-term increase of carbon (C) in the system, promoting C sequestration and reducing C-CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the C sequestration rate and the minimum amount of crop residues required to maintain the dynamic C equilibrium (dC/dt = 0) of two soils (Typic Hapludox) with different textural classes. The experiment was arranged in a 2 x 2 x 2 randomized block factorial design. The following factors were analyzed: (a) two soil types: Typic Hapludox (Oxisol) with medium texture (LVTM) and Oxisol with clay texture (LVTA), (b) two sampling layers (0-5 and 5-20 cm), and (c) two sampling periods (P1 - October 2007; P2 - September 2008). Samples were collected from fields under a long-term (20 years) NT system with the following crop rotations: wheat/soybean/black oat + vetch/maize (LVTM) and wheat/maize/black oat + vetch/soybean (LVTA). The annual C sequestration rates were 0.83 and 0.76 Mg ha-1 for LVTM and LVTA, respectively. The estimates of the minimum amount of crop residues required to maintain a dynamic equilibrium (dC/dt = 0) were 7.13 and 6.53 Mg ha-1 year-1 for LVTM and LVTA, respectively. The C conversion rate in both studied soils was lower than that reported in other studies in the region, resulting in a greater amount of crop residues left on the soil surface.

Combination of MRI and dynamic FET PET for initial glioma grading.

AIM: MRI and PET with 18F-fluoro-ethyl-tyrosine (FET) have been increasingly used to evaluate patients with gliomas. Our purpose was to assess the additive value of MR spectroscopy (MRS), diffusion imaging and dynamic FET-PET for glioma grading. PATIENTS, METHODS: 38 patients (42 ± 15 aged, F/M: 0.46) with untreated histologically proven brain gliomas were included. All underwent conventional MRI, MRS, diffusion sequences, and FET-PET within 3±4 weeks. Performances of tumour FET time-activity-curve, early-to-middle SUVmax ratio, choline / creatine ratio and ADC histogram distribution pattern for gliomas grading were assessed, as compared to histology. Combination of these parameters and respective odds were also evaluated. RESULTS: Tumour time-activity-curve reached the best accuracy (67%) when taken alone to distinguish between low and high-grade gliomas, followed by ADC histogram analysis (65%). Combination of time-activity-curve and ADC histogram analysis improved the sensitivity from 67% to 86% and the specificity from 63-67% to 100% (p < 0.008). On multivariate logistic regression analysis, negative slope of the tumour FET time-activity-curve however remains the best predictor of high-grade glioma (odds 7.6, SE 6.8, p = 0.022). CONCLUSION: Combination of dynamic FET-PET and diffusion MRI reached good performance for gliomas grading. The use of FET-PET/MR may be highly relevant in the initial assessment of primary brain tumours.

Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

Endocytic and secretory traffic in Arabidopsis merge in the trans-Golgi network/early endosome, an independent and highly dynamic organelle.

Plants constantly adjust their repertoire of plasma membrane proteins that mediates transduction of environmental and developmental signals as well as transport of ions, nutrients, and hormones. The importance of regulated secretory and endocytic trafficking is becoming increasingly clear; however, our knowledge of the compartments and molecular machinery involved is still fragmentary. We used immunogold electron microscopy and confocal laser scanning microscopy to trace the route of cargo molecules, including the BRASSINOSTEROID INSENSITIVE1 receptor and the REQUIRES HIGH BORON1 boron exporter, throughout the plant endomembrane system. Our results provide evidence that both endocytic and secretory cargo pass through the trans-Golgi network/early endosome (TGN/EE) and demonstrate that cargo in late endosomes/multivesicular bodies is destined for vacuolar degradation. Moreover, using spinning disc microscopy, we show that TGN/EEs move independently and are only transiently associated with an individual Golgi stack.

Dynamic, auxin-responsive plasma membrane-to-nucleus movement of Arabidopsis BRX.

In Arabidopsis, interplay between nuclear auxin perception and trans-cellular polar auxin transport determines the transcriptional auxin response. In brevis radix (brx) mutants, this response is impaired, probably indirectly because of disturbed crosstalk between the auxin and brassinosteroid pathways. Here we provide evidence that BRX protein is plasma membrane-associated, but translocates to the nucleus upon auxin treatment to modulate cellular growth, possibly in conjunction with NGATHA class B3 domain-type transcription factors. Application of the polar auxin transport inhibitor naphthalene phthalamic acid (NPA) resulted in increased BRX abundance at the plasma membrane. Thus, nuclear translocation of BRX could depend on cellular auxin concentration or on auxin flux. Supporting this idea, NPA treatment of wild-type roots phenocopied the brx root meristem phenotype. Moreover, BRX is constitutively turned over by the proteasome pathway in the nucleus. However, a stabilized C-terminal BRX fragment significantly rescued the brx root growth phenotype and triggered a hypocotyl gain-of-function phenotype, similar to strong overexpressors of full length BRX. Therefore, although BRX activity is required in the nucleus, excess activity interferes with normal development. Finally, similar to the PIN-FORMED 1 (PIN1) auxin efflux carrier, BRX is polarly localized in vascular cells and subject to endocytic recycling. Expression of BRX under control of the PIN1 promoter fully rescued the brx short root phenotype, suggesting that the two genes act in the same tissues. Collectively, our results suggest that BRX might provide a contextual readout to synchronize cellular growth with the auxin concentration gradient across the root tip.

Collective dynamic properties in simple crystals: Influence of the structural disorder

Collective dynamic properties in Lennard-Jones crystals are investigated by molecular dynamics simulation. The study is focused on properties such as the dynamic structure factors, the longitudinal and transverse currents and the density of states. The influence on these properties of the structural disorder is analyzed by comparing the results for one-component crystals with those for liquids and supercooled liquids at analogous conditions. The effects of species-disorder on the collective properties of binary crystals are also discussed.

Static and dynamic structure of liquid metals: Role of the different parts of the interaction potential

The influence of different parts of the interaction potential on the microscopic behavior of simple liquid metals is investigated by molecular dynamics simulation. The role of the soft-core repulsive, short-range attractive, and long-range oscillatory forces on the properties of liquid lithium close to the triple point is analyzed by comparing the results from simulations of identical systems but truncating the potential at different distances. Special attention is paid to dynamic collective properties such as the dynamic structure factors, transverse current correlation functions, and transport coefficients. It is observed that, in general, the effects of the short-range attractive forces are important. On the contrary, the influence of the oscillatory long-range interactions is considerably less, being the most pronounced for the dynamic structure factor at long wavelengths. The results of this work suggest that the influence of the attractive forces becomes less significant when temperature and density increase.

Self-dynamic structure factor of dense liquids: Theory and simulation

The self-intermediate dynamic structure factor Fs(k,t) of liquid lithium near the melting temperature is calculated by molecular dynamics. The results are compared with the predictions of several theoretical approaches, paying special attention to the Lovesey model and the Wahnstrm and Sjgren mode-coupling theory. To this end the results for the Fs(k,t) second memory function predicted by both models are compared with the ones calculated from the simulations.

Dynamic properties of Lennard Jones fluids and liquid metals

The dependence of the dynamic properties of liquid metals and Lennard-Jones fluids on the characteristics of the interaction potentials is analyzed. Molecular-dynamics simulations of liquids in analogous conditions but assuming that their particles interact either through a Lennard-Jones or a liquid-metal potential were carried out. The Lennard-Jones potentials were chosen so that both the effective size of the particles and the depth of the potential well were very close to those of the liquid-metal potentials. In order to investigate the extent to which the dynamic properties of liquids depend on the short-range attractive interactions as well as on the softness of the potential cores, molecular-dynamics simulations of the same systems but assuming purely repulsive interactions with the same potential cores were also performed. The study includes both singleparticle dynamic properties, such as the velocity autocorrelation functions, and collective dynamic properties, such as the intermediate scattering funcfunctions, and collective dynamic properties, such as the intermediate scattering functions, the dynamic structure factors, the longitudinal and transverse current correlations, and the transport coefficients.