Probabilistic modelling of CO2 corrosion laboratory data using neural networks

The present paper addresses two major concerns that were identified when developing neural network based prediction models and which can limit their wider applicability in the industry. The first problem is that it appears neural network models are not readily available to a corrosion engineer. Therefore the first part of this paper describes a neural network model of CO2 corrosion which was created using a standard commercial software package and simple modelling strategies. It was found that such a model was able to capture practically all of the trends noticed in the experimental data with acceptable accuracy. This exercise has proven that a corrosion engineer could readily develop a neural network model such as the one described below for any problem at hand, given that sufficient experimental data exist. This applies even in the cases when the understanding of the underlying processes is poor. The second problem arises from cases when all the required inputs for a model are not known or can be estimated with a limited degree of accuracy. It seems advantageous to have models that can take as input a range rather than a single value. One such model, based on the so-called Monte Carlo approach, is presented. A number of comparisons are shown which have illustrated how a corrosion engineer might use this approach to rapidly test the sensitivity of a model to the uncertainities associated with the input parameters. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic assessment of tongue function in children with dysarthria associated with acquired brain injury using electromagnetic articulography

The study to be presented is the first to use a new physiological device, the electromagnetic articulograph, to assess articulatory dysfunction in children with acquired brain injury. Two children with dysarthria subsequent to acquired brain injury participated in the study. One child, a female aged 12 years 9 months exhibited a mild-moderate ataxic dysarthria following traumatic head injury while the other, a male aged 13 years 10 months, demonstrated a moderate-severe flaccid-ataxic dysarthria also following traumatic head injury. The speed and accuracy of their tongue movements was assessed using the Carstens AG100 electromagnetic articulograph. Movement trajectories together with a range of quantitative kinematic parameters were estimated during performance of ten repetitions of the lingual consonants /t, s, k/ and consonant cluster /kl/ in the word initial position of single syllable words. A group of ten non-neurologically impaired children served as controls. Examination of the kinematic parameters, including movement trajectories, velocity, acceleration, deceleration, distance travelled and duration of movement, revealed differences in the speed and accuracy of the tongue movements in both children with acquired brain injury compared to those produced by the non-neurologically impaired controls. The results are discussed in relation to contemporary theories of the effects of acquired brain injury on neuromuscular function. The implications of the findings for the treatment of articulatory dysfunction in children with motor speech disorders associated with acquired brain injury are highlighted.

Spatially dynamic expression of Sry in mouse genital ridges

We have studied the spatial dynamics of Sry transcription in the genital ridges of mouse embryos. We find that Sry is expressed in a dynamic wave that emanates from the central and/or anterior regions, extends subsequently to both poles, and ends in the caudal pole. This dynamism may explain the relative positioning of ovarian and testicular tissue seen in ovotestes in mice. Since direct regulatory targets of SRY ought to be expressed in a corresponding or complimentary wave, our observations pave the way for identification of target genes. Sry is expressed in internal cells but not in coelomic surface epithelial cells, indicating that its effect on proliferation of surface cells is achieved non-cell-autonomously. The cellular dynamism of Sry expression revealed in this study thus provides important insights into both the cellular and molecular mode of action of SRY, and how perturbations in Sry expression can lead to anomalies of sexual development. (C) 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Two-link approximation schemes for loss networks with linear structure and trunk reservation

Loss networks have long been used to model various types of telecommunication network, including circuit-switched networks. Such networks often use admission controls, such as trunk reservation, to optimize revenue or stabilize the behaviour of the network. Unfortunately, an exact analysis of such networks is not usually possible, and reduced-load approximations such as the Erlang Fixed Point (EFP) approximation have been widely used. The performance of these approximations is typically very good for networks without controls, under several regimes. There is evidence, however, that in networks with controls, these approximations will in general perform less well. We propose an extension to the EFP approximation that gives marked improvement for a simple ring-shaped network with trunk reservation. It is based on the idea of considering pairs of links together, thus making greater allowance for dependencies between neighbouring links than does the EFP approximation, which only considers links in isolation.

Bayesian feedback versus Markovian feedback in a two-level atom

We compare two different approaches to the control of the dynamics of a continuously monitored open quantum system. The first is Markovian feedback, as introduced in quantum optics by Wiseman and Milburn [Phys. Rev. Lett. 70, 548 (1993)]. The second is feedback based on an estimate of the system state, developed recently by Doherty and Jacobs [Phys. Rev. A 60, 2700 (1999)]. Here we choose to call it, for brevity, Bayesian feedback. For systems with nonlinear dynamics, we expect these two methods of feedback control to give markedly different results. The simplest possible nonlinear system is a driven and damped two-level atom, so we choose this as our model system. The monitoring is taken to be homodyne detection of the atomic fluorescence, and the control is by modulating the driving. The aim of the feedback in both cases is to stabilize the internal state of the atom as close as possible to an arbitrarily chosen pure state, in the presence of inefficient detection and other forms of decoherence. Our results (obtained without recourse to stochastic simulations) prove that Bayesian feedback is never inferior, and is usually superior, to Markovian feedback. However, it would be far more difficult to implement than Markovian feedback and it loses its superiority when obvious simplifying approximations are made. It is thus not clear which form of feedback would be better in the face of inevitable experimental imperfections.

Benchmarking nitrogen removal suspended-carrier biofilm systems using dynamic simulation

We are witnessing an enormous growth in biological nitrogen removal from wastewater. It presents specific challenges beyond traditional COD (carbon) removal. A possibility for optimised process design is the use of biomass-supporting media. In this paper, attached growth processes (AGP) are evaluated using dynamic simulations. The advantages of these systems that were qualitatively described elsewhere, are validated quantitatively based on a simulation benchmark for activated sludge treatment systems. This simulation benchmark is extended with a biofilm model that allows for fast and accurate simulation of the conversion of different substrates in a biofilm. The economic feasibility of this system is evaluated using the data generated with the benchmark simulations. Capital savings due to volume reduction and reduced sludge production are weighed out against increased aeration costs. In this evaluation, effluent quality is integrated as well.

Dynamic Behavior of the Jahn-Teller distorted Cu(H2O)(6)(2+) ion in Cu2+ doped Cs-2[Zn(H2O)(6)](ZrF6)(2) and the crystal structure of the host lattice

The temperature dependence of the X- and Q-band EPR spectra of Cs-2[Zn(H2O)(6)](ZrF6)(2) containing similar to1% Cu2+ is reported. All three molecular g-values vary with temperature, and their behavior is interpreted using a model in which the potential surface of the Jahn-Teller distorted Cu(H2O)(6)(2+) ion is perturbed by an orthorhombic strain induced by interactions with the surrounding lattice. The strain parameters are significantly smaller than those reported previously for the Cu(H2O)(6)(2+) ion in similar lattices. The temperature dependence of the two higher g-values suggests that in the present compound the lattice interactions change slightly with temperature. The crystal structure of the Cs-2[Zn(H2O)(6)](ZrF6)(2) host is reported, and the geometry of the Zn(H2O)(6)(2+) ion is correlated with lattice strain parameters derived from the EPR spectrum of the guest Cu2+ complex.

Enriched behavioral prediction equation and its impact on structured learning and the dynamic calculus

This theoretical note describes an expansion of the behavioral prediction equation, in line with the greater complexity encountered in models of structured learning theory (R. B. Cattell, 1996a). This presents learning theory with a vector substitute for the simpler scalar quantities by which traditional Pavlovian-Skinnerian models have hitherto been represented. Structured learning can be demonstrated by vector changes across a range of intrapersonal psychological variables (ability, personality, motivation, and state constructs). Its use with motivational dynamic trait measures (R. B. Cattell, 1985) should reveal new theoretical possibilities for scientifically monitoring change processes (dynamic calculus model; R. B. Cattell, 1996b), such as encountered within psycho therapeutic settings (R. B. Cattell, 1987). The enhanced behavioral prediction equation suggests that static conceptualizations of personality structure such as the Big Five model are less than optimal.

Adoption and maintenance of contour bunds and hedgerows in a dynamic environment - Experience in the Philippine uplands

The widespread adoption of soil conservation technologies by farmers (notably contour hedgerows) observed in Guba, Cebu City, Philippines, is not often observed elsewhere In the country. Adoption of these technologies was because of the interaction of such phenomena as site-specific factors, appropriate extension systems, and technologies. However, lack of hedgerow maintenance, decreasing hedgerow quality, and disappearance of hedgerows raised concerns about sustainability. The dynamic nature of upland farming systems suggests the need for a location-specific farming system development framework, which provides farmers with ongoing extension for continual promotion of appropriate conservation practices.

The GP problem: quantifying gene-to-phenotype relationships

In this paper we refer to the gene-to-phenotype modeling challenge as the GP problem. Integrating information across levels of organization within a genotype-environment system is a major challenge in computational biology. However, resolving the GP problem is a fundamental requirement if we are to understand and predict phenotypes given knowledge of the genome and model dynamic properties of biological systems. Organisms are consequences of this integration, and it is a major property of biological systems that underlies the responses we observe. We discuss the E(NK) model as a framework for investigation of the GP problem and the prediction of system properties at different levels of organization. We apply this quantitative framework to an investigation of the processes involved in genetic improvement of plants for agriculture. In our analysis, N genes determine the genetic variation for a set of traits that are responsible for plant adaptation to E environment-types within a target population of environments. The N genes can interact in epistatic NK gene-networks through the way that they influence plant growth and development processes within a dynamic crop growth model. We use a sorghum crop growth model, available within the APSIM agricultural production systems simulation model, to integrate the gene-environment interactions that occur during growth and development and to predict genotype-to-phenotype relationships for a given E(NK) model. Directional selection is then applied to the population of genotypes, based on their predicted phenotypes, to simulate the dynamic aspects of genetic improvement by a plant-breeding program. The outcomes of the simulated breeding are evaluated across cycles of selection in terms of the changes in allele frequencies for the N genes and the genotypic and phenotypic values of the populations of genotypes.

Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Fitting genetic models to twin data with binary and ordered categorical responses: A comparison of structural equation modelling and Bayesian hierarchical models

We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.