A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Reducing the harms caused by cannabis use: the policy debate in Australia

The debate about cannabis policy in Australia has revolved around the harms that cannabis causes to users and the community, on the one hand, and the harms that are caused by the prohibition of its use, on the other. This paper assesses evidence on: (1) the harms caused to users and the community by cannabis use (derived from the international scientific literature) and (2) the harms that arise from prohibition (as reflected in Australian research). The most probable harms caused by cannabis use include: an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents; respiratory disease; dependence; adverse effects on adolescent development; and the exacerbation of psychosis. The harms of the current prohibition on cannabis use policy are less tangible but probably include: the creation of a large blackmarket; disrespect for a widely broken law; harms to the reputation of the unlucky few cannabis users who are caught and prosecuted; lack of access to cannabis for medical uses; and an inefficient use of law enforcement resources. Cannabis policy unavoidably involves trade offs between competing values that should be made by the political process. Australian cannabis policy has converged on a solution which continues to prohibit cannabis but reduces the severity of penalties for cannabis use by either removing criminal penalties or diverting first time cannabis offenders into treatment and education. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Barriers to equality: men's and women's attitudes to workplace entitlements in Australia

This paper examines attitudes to workplace entitlements, such as parental leave and flexible work hours. Family friendly policies such as leave to care for children have implications for feminist debates about sameness versus difference and the extent to which such policies will lead to greater equality between men and women, or alternatively, further entrench existing gender divisions of labour: Using data from a recent national survey in Australia, the paper shows that while the Australian workforce is generally in favour of workplace entitlements, women are generally more supportive of these kinds of benefits than men. Surprisingly, most respondents are more supportive of unpaid rather than paid parental leave. The results also show that the most important determinants of support for work entitlements are a combination of the extent to which one needs work entitlements and employment location. The results raise issues about whether the provision of workplace entitlements will encourage greater participation by men in domestic responsibilities, or simply ease women's double burden of paid and unpaid work.

Two new species of Neolebouria Gibson, 1976 (Digenea : Opecoelidae) from temperate marine fishes of Australia

Neolebouria moretonensis n. sp. is described from Gerres subfasciatus (Gerreidae) from Moreton Bay, south-east Queensland and N. lineatus n. sp. is described from Centroberyx lineatus (Berycidae) from off Rottnest Island, south-west Western Australia. C. lineatus represents a new host family and order (Beryciformes) for the genus. The two new species are distinguished within the genus by their entire, tandem to oblique testes and cirrus-sacs that do not extend into the hind-body, by being less than 1 mm in length, and by the position of the genital pore and the relative size of the forebody and post-testicular region. N. lineatus and N. moretonensis are very similar but are distinguished by their caeca which extend further posteriorly in N. moretonensis. There is no apparent pattern in the host-specificity of this genus.

Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata

1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.

Biological control of the rabbit in Australia: lessons not learned?

The story of the spread of the European rabbit across Australia, and of the two viruses used to control it, is an interesting way to look at some of the issues associated with biological control. What can be learned from the way this system developed, and what has been learned, or not learned, from the mistakes made? Here, we look at these events and examine what insights can be gained from this history.

The isolation and synthesis of novel nematocidal dithiocyanates from an Australian marine sponge, Oceanapia sp.

Bioassay-directed fractionation of the EtOH extract of an Oceanapia sp. collected off the northern Rottnest Shelf, Australia, has yielded three novel dithiocyanates, thiocyanatins A (1), B (2a), and C (2b). The structures were determined by detailed spectroscopic analysis and confirmed by total synthesis. In addition to featuring an unprecedented dithiocyanate functionality, thiocyanatins possess an unusual 1,16-difunctionalized n-hexadecane carbon skeleton and are revealed as a hitherto unknown class of nematocidal agents