Using rare mutations to estimate population divergence times: A maximum likelihood approach

In this paper we propose a method to estimate by maximum likelihood the divergence time between two populations, specifically designed for the analysis of nonrecurrent rare mutations. Given the rapidly growing amount of data, rare disease mutations affecting humans seem the most suitable candidates for this method. The estimator RD, and its conditional version RDc, were derived, assuming that the population dynamics of rare alleles can be described by using a birth–death process approximation and that each mutation arose before the split of a common ancestral population into the two diverging populations. The RD estimator seems more suitable for large sample sizes and few alleles, whose age can be approximated, whereas the RDc estimator appears preferable when this is not the case. When applied to three cystic fibrosis mutations, the estimator RD could not exclude a very recent time of divergence among three Mediterranean populations. On the other hand, the divergence time between these populations and the Danish population was estimated to be, on the average, 4,500 or 15,000 years, assuming or not a selective advantage for cystic fibrosis carriers, respectively. Confidence intervals are large, however, and can probably be reduced only by analyzing more alleles or loci.

Estimation of divergence times from multiprotein sequences for a few mammalian species and several distantly related organisms

When many protein sequences are available for estimating the time of divergence between two species, it is customary to estimate the time for each protein separately and then use the average for all proteins as the final estimate. However, it can be shown that this estimate generally has an upward bias, and that an unbiased estimate is obtained by using distances based on concatenated sequences. We have shown that two concatenation-based distances, i.e., average gamma distance weighted with sequence length (d2) and multiprotein gamma distance (d3), generally give more satisfactory results than other concatenation-based distances. Using these two distance measures for 104 protein sequences, we estimated the time of divergence between mice and rats to be approximately 33 million years ago. Similarly, the time of divergence between humans and rodents was estimated to be approximately 96 million years ago. We also investigated the dependency of time estimates on statistical methods and various assumptions made by using sequence data from eubacteria, protists, plants, fungi, and animals. Our best estimates of the times of divergence between eubacteria and eukaryotes, between protists and other eukaryotes, and between plants, fungi, and animals were 3, 1.7, and 1.3 billion years ago, respectively. However, estimates of ancient divergence times are subject to a substantial amount of error caused by uncertainty of the molecular clock, horizontal gene transfer, errors in sequence alignments, etc.

Evolution and divergence of sodium channel genes in vertebrates

Invertebrate species possess one or two Na+ channel genes, yet there are 10 in mammals. When did this explosive growth come about during vertebrate evolution? All mammalian Na+ channel genes reside on four chromosomes. It has been suggested that this came about by multiple duplications of an ancestral chromosome with a single Na+ channel gene followed by tandem duplications of Na+ channel genes on some of these chromosomes. Because a large-scale expansion of the vertebrate genome likely occurred before the divergence of teleosts and tetrapods, we tested this hypothesis by cloning Na+ channel genes in a teleost fish. Using an approach designed to clone all of the Na+ channel genes in a genome, we found six Na+ channel genes. Phylogenetic comparisons show that each teleost gene is orthologous to a Na+ channel gene or gene cluster on a different mammalian chromosome, supporting the hypothesis that four Na+ channel genes were present in the ancestors of teleosts and tetrapods. Further duplications occurred independently in the teleost and tetrapod lineages, with a greater number of duplications in tetrapods. This pattern has implications for the evolution of function and specialization of Na+ channel genes in vertebrates. Sodium channel genes also are linked to homeobox (Hox) gene clusters in mammals. Using our phylogeny of Na+ channel genes to independently test between two models of Hox gene evolution, we support the hypothesis that Hox gene clusters evolved as (AB) (CD) rather than {D[A(BC)]}.

Excitatory versus inhibitory GABA as a divergence point in steroid-mediated sexual differentiation of the brain

Whereas adult sex differences in brain morphology and behavior result from developmental exposure to steroid hormones, the mechanism by which steroids differentiate the brain is unknown. Studies to date have described subtle sex differences in levels of proteins and neurotransmitters during brain development, but these have lacked explanatory power for the profound sex differences induced by steroids. We report here a major divergence in the response to injection of the γ-aminobutyric acid type A (GABAA) agonist, muscimol, in newborn male and female rats. In females, muscimol treatment primarily decreased the phosphorylation of cAMP response element binding protein (CREB) within the hypothalamus and the CA1 region of the hippocampus. In contrast, muscimol increased the phosphorylation of CREB in males within these same brain regions. Within the arcuate nucleus, muscimol treatment increased the phosphorylation of CREB in both females and males. Thus, the response to GABA can be excitatory or inhibitory on signal-transduction pathways that alter CREB phosphorylation depending on the sex and the region in developing brain. This divergence in response to GABA allows for a previously unknown form of steroid-mediated neuronal plasticity and may be an initial step in establishing sexually dimorphic signal-transduction pathways in developing brain.

A novel clade of protistan parasites near the animal-fungal divergence.

Sequences of nuclear-encoded small-subunit rRNA genes have been determined for representatives of the enigmatic genera Dermocystidium, Ichthyophonus, and Psorospermium, protistan parasites of fish and crustaceans. The small-subunit rRNA genes from these parasites and from the "rosette agent" (also a parasite of fish) together form a novel, statistically supported clade. Phylogenetic analyses demonstrate this clade to diverge near the animal-fungal dichotomy, although more precise resolution is problematic. In the most parsimonious and maximally likely phylogenetic frameworks inferred from the most stably aligned sequence regions, the clade constitutes the most basal branch of the metazoa; but within a limited range of model parameters, and in some analyses that incorporate less well-aligned sequence regions, an alternative topology in which it diverges immediately before the animal-fungal dichotomy was recovered. Mitochondrial cristae of Dermocystidium spp. are flat, whereas those of Ichthyophonus hoferi appear tubulovesiculate. These results extend our understanding of the types of organisms from which metazoa and fungi may have evolved.

Duplication and functional divergence in the chalcone synthase gene family of Asteraceae: evolution with substrate change and catalytic simplification.

Plant-specific polyketide synthase genes constitute a gene superfamily, including universal chalcone synthase [CHS; malonyl-CoA:4-coumaroyl-CoA malonyltransferase (cyclizing) (EC 2.3.1.74)] genes, sporadically distributed stilbene synthase (SS) genes, and atypical, as-yet-uncharacterized CHS-like genes. We have recently isolated from Gerbera hybrida (Asteraceae) an unusual CHS-like gene, GCHS2, which codes for an enzyme with structural and enzymatic properties as well as ontogenetic distribution distinct from both CHS and SS. Here, we show that the GCHS2-like function is encoded in the Gerbera genome by a family of at least three transcriptionally active genes. Conservation within the GCHS2 family was exploited with selective PCR to study the occurrence of GCHS2-like genes in other Asteraceae. Parsimony analysis of the amplified sequences together with CHS-like genes isolated from other taxa of angiosperm subclass Asteridae suggests that GCHS2 has evolved from CHS via a gene duplication event that occurred before the diversification of the Asteraceae. Enzyme activity analysis of proteins produced in vitro indicates that the GCHS2 reaction is a non-SS variant of the CHS reaction, with both different substrate specificity (to benzoyl-CoA) and a truncated catalytic profile. Together with the recent results of Durbin et al. [Durbin, M. L., Learn, G. H., Jr., Huttley, G. A. & Clegg, M. T. (1995) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 92, 3338-3342], our study confirms a gene duplication-based model that explains how various related functions have arisen from CHS during plant evolution.

Pattern of gp120 sequence divergence linked to a lack of clinical progression in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection.

Differential rates of AIDS development and/or T4 lymphocyte depletion in HIV-1-infected individuals remain unexplained. The hypothesis that qualitative differences in selection pressure in vivo may account for different rates of disease progression was addressed in nine eligible study participants from a cohort of 315 homosexual men who have been followed since 1985. Disproportionately fewer changes in variable regions and more in C3 of gp12O were found to be significantly associated with slower disease progression. Our finding provides the first example to demonstrate that differential selection pressure related to the emergence of HIV-1 variants is associated with long term nonprogression. Candidate vaccines that elicit strong selection pressure on C3 of gp120 are likely to provide better protection than those targeting variable regions.

Extraordinary divergence and positive Darwinian selection in a fusagenic protein coating the acrosomal process of abalone spermatozoa.

During fertilization in marine invertebrates, fusion between sperm and egg cell membranes occurs at the tip of the sperm acrosomal process. In abalone sperm the acrosomal process is coated with an 18-kDa protein. In situ, this protein has no effect on the egg vitelline envelope, but in vitro it is a potent fusagen of liposomes. Thus, the 18-kDa protein may mediate membrane fusion between the gametes, a step in gamete recognition known to restrict heterospecific fertilization in other species. The cDNA and deduced amino acid sequences of the 18-kDa protein were determined for five species of California abalone. The deduced amino acid sequences exhibit extraordinary divergence; the percent identity varies from 27% to 87%. Analysis of nucleotide substitution shows extremely high frequencies of amino acid-altering substitution compared to silent substitution, demonstrating that positive Darwinian selection promotes the divergence of this protein. However, amino acid replacement is conservative with respect to size and polarity of residue. The data support the developing idea that in free-spawning marine invertebrates, the proteins mediating fertilization may be subjected to intense, and as yet unknown, selective forces. The extraordinary divergence of fertilization proteins may be related to the establishment of barriers to heterospecific fertilization.

Understanding structural divergence in European manufacturing

The heterogeneity among European manufacturing systems has widened in the last fifteen years under the competitive pressure of new industrial powers within and outside the EU boundaries, and as a result of the 2008 global recession. This paper describes such transformation, in terms of the sectoral composition and the geographical concentration of industrial activities. It also analyzes how cross-country differences in the export performance, in the levels of domestic demand and in the exposure to low-cost import competition have contributed to the divergence in European manufacturing.

Diversificação de espécies e da morfologia em serpentes da família Viperidae: padrões e processos

A diversidade de espécies e fenotípica pode variar consideravelmente entre grupos taxonômicos e ao longo do tempo em uma mesma linhagem. O estudo de tais variações tornou-se um dos principais objetivos da biologia evolutiva fornecendo informações importantes a respeito dos possíveis mecanismos que regulam a biodiversidade. Dessa forma, o objetivo geral da presente tese foi investigar os padrões da diversificação de espécies e da morfologia em um grupo cosmopolita de serpentes, a família Viperidae, e os potenciais processos subjacentes. Primeiramente, (1) reconstruímos as relações filogenéticas e estimamos os tempos de divergência entre as linhagens da família Viperidae utilizando uma abordagem Bayesiana. (2) Aplicando um método recentemente desenvolvido (BAMM), exploramos como as taxas de especiação e extinção variaram ao longo da radiação do grupo inferindo os possíveis processos reguladores. Por fim, (3) analisamos se a evolução do tamanho do corpo e as taxas de especiação variam nos diferentes habitats ocupados pelos viperídeos (terrestres vs arborícola). Nesta tese geramos a filogenia molecular de viperídeos mais completa até o momento utilizando sequências para 11 genes mitocondriais e nucleares abrangendo 79% das espécies viventes (264 terminais) e todos com exceção de um gênero. De maneira geral, foi possível obter relações filogenéticas robustas para o grupo com a maioria dos gêneros sendo monofilética. Os tempos de divergência obtidos indicam que os viperídeos começaram a diversificar em meados do Paleoceno tardio/meio do Eoceno inferindo idades um pouco mais tardias que o encontrado em estudos anteriores. Durante a radiação do grupo, um aumento nas taxas de especiação parece ter ocorrido durante a diversificação dos crotalíneos (pit vipers) em decorrência não só da evolução das fossetas loreais mas também como resultado de mudanças geológicas e climáticas na Ásia e da invasão do novo mundo. Após este rápido aumento inicial, as taxas de especiação desaceleraram em direção ao presente. Por fim, os resultados aqui apresentados indicam que apesar dos habitats arborícolas limitarem a evolução morfológica nos viperídeos, a evolução da arborealidade parece não afetar as taxas de especiação que permanecem similares entre linhagens arborícolas e terrestres. Isto sugere dois cenários: (1) a especiação acontece de forma independente das mudanças morfológicas nos viperídeos; ou (2) o isolamento geográfico seria um mecanismo importante na diversificação de linhagens arborícolas contrabalançando decréscimos nas oportunidades de especiação possivelmente relacionados às pressões seletivas impostas pelo ambiente arborícola. A presente tese contribui para entendermos mais sobre como evoluíram os viperídeos ao longo dos seus ∼50 milhões de anos. Além de propor cenários e hipóteses a serem futuramente explorados com os viperídeos, elaboramos uma discussão ampla e conceitual a respeito dos possíveis mecanismos por trás da diversificação de espécies e da morfologia que poderiam também ser contemplados para outros grupos de organismos. Portanto, a presente tese contribui não só para entendermos os mecanismos que geram e mantém a diversidade de serpentes, mas também para enriquecer a discussão dos mecanismos que geram e mantém a biodiversidade como um todo

ϕ-Divergence Based Procedure for Parametric Change-Point Problems

This paper studies the change-point problem for a general parametric, univariate or multivariate family of distributions. An information theoretic procedure is developed which is based on general divergence measures for testing the hypothesis of the existence of a change. For comparing the exact sizes of the new test-statistic using the criterion proposed in Dale (J R Stat Soc B 48–59, 1986), a simulation study is performed for the special case of exponentially distributed random variables. A complete study of powers of the test-statistics and their corresponding relative local efficiencies, is also considered.

The grand divergence: global and European current account surpluses. Bruegel Working Paper 2015/08, 13 August 2015

Global current account imbalances widened before the 2007/2008 crisis and have narrowed since. While the post-crisis adjustment of European current account deficits was in line with global developments (though more forceful), European current account surpluses defied global trends and increased. We use panel econometric models to analyse the determinants of medium-term current account balances. Our results confirm that higher fiscal balances, higher GDP per capita, more rapidly aging populations, larger net foreign assets, larger oil rents and better legal systems increase the medium-term current account balance, while a larger growth differential and a higher old-age dependency ratio reduce it. European current account surpluses became excessive during the past twelve years according to our estimates, while they were in line with model predictions in the preceding three decades. Generally, the gap between the actual current account and its fitted value in the model has a strong predictive power for future current account changes. Excess deficits adjust more forcefully than excess surpluses. However, in the 2004-07 period, excess imbalances were amplified, which was followed by a forceful correction in 2008-15, with the exception of European surpluses.