Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

Youth Work and Schools in ‘Full-day’ education systems: International Comparison of Links between Formal and Non-formal Education

In this article I will outline the methodological approach of a non-empirical comparative research project which I began in 2003. The project is situated in the context of the research training group “Youth Welfare in Transition” at the universities of Bielefeld and Dortmund, funded by the German Research Council (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft). In that context I have organised an international conference about the modes of cooperation between school and youth work agencies with colleagues from Canada, France, Finland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Russia, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, the United States, Israel, and Germany. Meeting in Bielefeld from the 9th to the 11th of October 2003, we compared the respective national arrangements of formal and non-formal education (www.uni-bielefeld.de/paedagogik/agn/ag8/Ganztagsbildung.html). This note is based on the scheme of comparison which was given to the contributors in order to help them preparing their presentations. At the moment the scheme is nearing completed with significant data prepared by the contributors/authors (see Otto/Coelen 2004), supplemented with data from research works published in German and English. The next step will be to set up an empirical project about the relationships between schools and youth work agencies in three European countries (probably France, Finland and the Netherlands).

Diseases in neonatal foals. Part 1: the 30 day incidence of disease and the effect of prophylactic antimicrobial drug treatment during the first three days post partum

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Neonatal diseases have been grouped and analysed but up-to-date statistically significant information about the incidence and prevalence of diseases in foals is limited. Since the 1950s it has been a common management practice to administer a 3 day course of antimicrobial drugs to neonatal foals. This was shown to significantly reduce the incidence of infections (Platt 1977). Since then management practices have improved and it is widely believed that prophylactic antimicrobial drugs are no longer necessary in foal rearing. OBJECTIVES: To determine the 30 day incidences or prevalences (depending on case definition) of various diseases and conditions in the neonatal foal and ascertain the influence of a prophylactic 3 day treatment on the frequency of infections. METHODS: The population consisted of Thoroughbred foals born on stud farms in the Newmarket (UK) area in 2005 (n = 1031). Depending on the stud farm's practice in the use of prophylactic antimicrobial drugs, 2 groups of newborn foals (treated and untreated) were identified and followed for 30 days. RESULTS: The 30 day incidences of infectious diseases under study were between 0.2% (osteomyelitis) and 5.85% (systemic disease with diarrhoea). The overall incidence for 'total infectious diseases' was 8.27%. The most commonly observed noninfectious condition was limb deformities (12.11% of all foals). There was no significant difference in the incidence of infectious diseases between the 2 groups. CONCLUSION: Infectious diseases are still an important problem in neonatal foals requiring further investigation as to which factors other than antimicrobial prophylaxis are relevant for disease prevention. POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: The results provide an up-to-date overview about the frequencies of various neonatal foal diseases. They do not support the traditional prophylactic use of antimicrobials to prevent infectious diseases in healthy newborn foals. However, it should be noted that this study was not a randomised controlled trial and therefore does not provide the strongest possible evidence for this conclusion.

Modified temporal approach for a rostro-temporal basal meningioma in a cat

An 11-year-old neutered female domestic shorthair indoor cat was presented to our hospital for treatment of a left-sided rostro-temporal basal meningioma. Focal seizures in the facial muscles had been observed sporadically for 1 year. Two weeks prior to presentation the cat had developed generalised seizures and was treated with symptomatic anticonvulsive treatment. Focal facial seizures, especially on the right side, persisted after medical therapy. From the computed tomography scan, a basal meningioma was suspected by the treating veterinarian. A left-sided suprazygomatical temporobasal approach to the zygomatic arch was chosen because it causes less soft tissue damage. After craniotomy, durotomy and gentle dorsal retraction of the left piriform lobe, the meningioma was removed. Postoperative magnetic resonance imaging confirmed complete excision of the tumour. One day after surgery the cat was alert and a left-sided facial nerve palsy was noticed. Otherwise the neurological examination was normal. Anticonvulsive and eye moistening therapy was continued for 3 months. Six months after surgery the cat was clinically normal without any recurrence of seizures.

Appearance of red mark syndrome / cold water strawberry disease in Switzerland and Austria

Red mark syndrome (RMS) or cold water strawberry disease (CWSD) is a non-lethal skin disease of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss that is of high economic importance in the UK. The disease is temperature-dependent, with up to 60% morbidity at water temperatures below 15 degrees C. Although CWSD is horizontally transmissible, the aetiology is still unknown. Here we describe the first cases of RMS on the European mainland in the alpine regions of Switzerland and Austria. In Switzerland, morbidity remained around 1% after the first outbreak, whereas in Austria no further cases were diagnosed.

Forage-Based Beef Production Research at the Armstrong Outlying Research Farm

Fifty-five yearling crossbred steers and 3C cow-calf pairs were used in a forage-based beef production system demonstration project at the Armstrong Outlying Research Farm. From May 11 to June 13, steers rotationally grazed a 41-acre grass pasture that was divided into eight paddocks. From June 13 to August 24, steers were placed in a drylot and fed berseem clover/oat soilage from a strip-intercropping system. Beginning June 5, 36 cow-calf pairs were allowed to rotationally graze the 41-acre pasture until September 18. Calf weight gains for the 110 days were 1.57 pounds per day, and total production from the pasture was 151 pounds per acre. No cow weight change or condition score change was measured. Total steer production was 29 and 580 pounds per acre or average daily gains were .67 and 2.23 pounds while grazing pasture and being fed in a drylot.