942 resultados para Data Driven Modeling


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Bone marrow hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) are responsible for both lifelong daily maintenance of all blood cells and for repair after cell loss. Until recently the cellular mechanisms by which HSCs accomplish these two very different tasks remained an open question. Biological evidence has now been found for the existence of two related mouse HSC populations. First, a dormant HSC (d-HSC) population which harbors the highest self-renewal potential of all blood cells but is only induced into active self-renewal in response to hematopoietic stress. And second, an active HSC (a-HSC) subset that by and large produces the progenitors and mature cells required for maintenance of day-to-day hematopoiesis. Here we present computational analyses further supporting the d-HSC concept through extensive modeling of experimental DNA label-retaining cell (LRC) data. Our conclusion that the presence of a slowly dividing subpopulation of HSCs is the most likely explanation (amongst the various possible causes including stochastic cellular variation) of the observed long term Bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU) retention, is confirmed by the deterministic and stochastic models presented here. Moreover, modeling both HSC BrdU uptake and dilution in three stages and careful treatment of the BrdU detection sensitivity permitted improved estimates of HSC turnover rates. This analysis predicts that d-HSCs cycle about once every 149-193 days and a-HSCs about once every 28-36 days. We further predict that, using LRC assays, a 75%-92.5% purification of d-HSCs can be achieved after 59-130 days of chase. Interestingly, the d-HSC proportion is now estimated to be around 30-45% of total HSCs - more than twice that of our previous estimate.

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ObjectiveCandidate genes for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) identified by a bioinformatics approach were examined for variant associations to quantitative traits of NAFLD-related phenotypes.Research Design and MethodsBy integrating public database text mining, trans-organism protein-protein interaction transferal, and information on liver protein expression a protein-protein interaction network was constructed and from this a smaller isolated interactome was identified. Five genes from this interactome were selected for genetic analysis. Twenty-one tag single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) which captured all common variation in these genes were genotyped in 10,196 Danes, and analyzed for association with NAFLD-related quantitative traits, type 2 diabetes (T2D), central obesity, and WHO-defined metabolic syndrome (MetS).Results273 genes were included in the protein-protein interaction analysis and EHHADH, ECHS1, HADHA, HADHB, and ACADL were selected for further examination. A total of 10 nominal statistical significant associations (P<0.05) to quantitative metabolic traits were identified. Also, the case-control study showed associations between variation in the five genes and T2D, central obesity, and MetS, respectively. Bonferroni adjustments for multiple testing negated all associations.ConclusionsUsing a bioinformatics approach we identified five candidate genes for NAFLD. However, we failed to provide evidence of associations with major effects between SNPs in these five genes and NAFLD-related quantitative traits, T2D, central obesity, and MetS.

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Because of the increase in workplace automation and the diversification of industrial processes, workplaces have become more and more complex. The classical approaches used to address workplace hazard concerns, such as checklists or sequence models, are, therefore, of limited use in such complex systems. Moreover, because of the multifaceted nature of workplaces, the use of single-oriented methods, such as AEA (man oriented), FMEA (system oriented), or HAZOP (process oriented), is not satisfactory. The use of a dynamic modeling approach in order to allow multiple-oriented analyses may constitute an alternative to overcome this limitation. The qualitative modeling aspects of the MORM (man-machine occupational risk modeling) model are discussed in this article. The model, realized on an object-oriented Petri net tool (CO-OPN), has been developed to simulate and analyze industrial processes in an OH&S perspective. The industrial process is modeled as a set of interconnected subnets (state spaces), which describe its constitutive machines. Process-related factors are introduced, in an explicit way, through machine interconnections and flow properties. While man-machine interactions are modeled as triggering events for the state spaces of the machines, the CREAM cognitive behavior model is used in order to establish the relevant triggering events. In the CO-OPN formalism, the model is expressed as a set of interconnected CO-OPN objects defined over data types expressing the measure attached to the flow of entities transiting through the machines. Constraints on the measures assigned to these entities are used to determine the state changes in each machine. Interconnecting machines implies the composition of such flow and consequently the interconnection of the measure constraints. This is reflected by the construction of constraint enrichment hierarchies, which can be used for simulation and analysis optimization in a clear mathematical framework. The use of Petri nets to perform multiple-oriented analysis opens perspectives in the field of industrial risk management. It may significantly reduce the duration of the assessment process. But, most of all, it opens perspectives in the field of risk comparisons and integrated risk management. Moreover, because of the generic nature of the model and tool used, the same concepts and patterns may be used to model a wide range of systems and application fields.

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We study theoretical and empirical aspects of the mean exit time (MET) of financial time series. The theoretical modeling is done within the framework of continuous time random walk. We empirically verify that the mean exit time follows a quadratic scaling law and it has associated a prefactor which is specific to the analyzed stock. We perform a series of statistical tests to determine which kind of correlation are responsible for this specificity. The main contribution is associated with the autocorrelation property of stock returns. We introduce and solve analytically both two-state and three-state Markov chain models. The analytical results obtained with the two-state Markov chain model allows us to obtain a data collapse of the 20 measured MET profiles in a single master curve.

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ABSTRACT Intrinsic equilibrium constants of 17 representative Brazilian Oxisols were estimated from potentiometric titration measuring the adsorption of H+ and OH− on amphoteric surfaces in suspensions of varying ionic strength. Equilibrium constants were fitted to two surface complexation models: diffuse layer and constant capacitance. The former was fitted by calculating total site concentration from curve fitting estimates and pH-extrapolation of the intrinsic equilibrium constants to the PZNPC (hand calculation), considering one and two reactive sites, and by the FITEQL software. The latter was fitted only by FITEQL, with one reactive site. Soil chemical and physical properties were correlated to the intrinsic equilibrium constants. Both surface complexation models satisfactorily fit our experimental data, but for results at low ionic strength, optimization did not converge in FITEQL. Data were incorporated in Visual MINTEQ and they provide a modeling system that can predict protonation-dissociation reactions in the soil surface under changing environmental conditions.

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ABSTRACT Intrinsic equilibrium constants for 22 representative Brazilian Oxisols were estimated from a cadmium adsorption experiment. Equilibrium constants were fitted to two surface complexation models: diffuse layer and constant capacitance. Intrinsic equilibrium constants were optimized by FITEQL and by hand calculation using Visual MINTEQ in sweep mode, and Excel spreadsheets. Data from both models were incorporated into Visual MINTEQ. Constants estimated by FITEQL and incorporated in Visual MINTEQ software failed to predict observed data accurately. However, FITEQL raw output data rendered good results when predicted values were directly compared with observed values, instead of incorporating the estimated constants into Visual MINTEQ. Intrinsic equilibrium constants optimized by hand calculation and incorporated in Visual MINTEQ reliably predicted Cd adsorption reactions on soil surfaces under changing environmental conditions.

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Accurate modeling of flow instabilities requires computational tools able to deal with several interacting scales, from the scale at which fingers are triggered up to the scale at which their effects need to be described. The Multiscale Finite Volume (MsFV) method offers a framework to couple fine-and coarse-scale features by solving a set of localized problems which are used both to define a coarse-scale problem and to reconstruct the fine-scale details of the flow. The MsFV method can be seen as an upscaling-downscaling technique, which is computationally more efficient than standard discretization schemes and more accurate than traditional upscaling techniques. We show that, although the method has proven accurate in modeling density-driven flow under stable conditions, the accuracy of the MsFV method deteriorates in case of unstable flow and an iterative scheme is required to control the localization error. To avoid large computational overhead due to the iterative scheme, we suggest several adaptive strategies both for flow and transport. In particular, the concentration gradient is used to identify a front region where instabilities are triggered and an accurate (iteratively improved) solution is required. Outside the front region the problem is upscaled and both flow and transport are solved only at the coarse scale. This adaptive strategy leads to very accurate solutions at roughly the same computational cost as the non-iterative MsFV method. In many circumstances, however, an accurate description of flow instabilities requires a refinement of the computational grid rather than a coarsening. For these problems, we propose a modified iterative MsFV, which can be used as downscaling method (DMsFV). Compared to other grid refinement techniques the DMsFV clearly separates the computational domain into refined and non-refined regions, which can be treated separately and matched later. This gives great flexibility to employ different physical descriptions in different regions, where different equations could be solved, offering an excellent framework to construct hybrid methods.

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Sequencing of pools of individuals (Pool-Seq) represents a reliable and cost-effective approach for estimating genome-wide SNP and transposable element insertion frequencies. However, Pool-Seq does not provide direct information on haplotypes so that, for example, obtaining inversion frequencies has not been possible until now. Here, we have developed a new set of diagnostic marker SNPs for seven cosmopolitan inversions in Drosophila melanogaster that can be used to infer inversion frequencies from Pool-Seq data. We applied our novel marker set to Pool-Seq data from an experimental evolution study and from North American and Australian latitudinal clines. In the experimental evolution data, we find evidence that positive selection has driven the frequencies of In(3R)C and In(3R)Mo to increase over time. In the clinal data, we confirm the existence of frequency clines for In(2L)t, In(3L)P and In(3R)Payne in both North America and Australia and detect a previously unknown latitudinal cline for In(3R)Mo in North America. The inversion markers developed here provide a versatile and robust tool for characterizing inversion frequencies and their dynamics in Pool-Seq data from diverse D. melanogaster populations.

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An equation for mean first-passage times of non-Markovian processes driven by colored noise is derived through an appropriate backward integro-differential equation. The equation is solved in a Bourret-like approximation. In a weak-noise bistable situation, non-Markovian effects are taken into account by an effective diffusion coefficient. In this situation, our results compare satisfactorily with other approaches and experimental data.

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Studies of hybrid zones can inform our understanding of reproductive isolation and speciation. Two species of brown lemur (Eulemur rufifrons and E. cinereiceps) form an apparently stable hybrid zone in the Andringitra region of south-eastern Madagascar. The aim of this study was to identify factors that contribute to this stability. We sampled animals at 11 sites along a 90-km transect through the hybrid zone and examined variation in 26 microsatellites, the D-loop region of mitochondrial DNA, six pelage and nine morphological traits; we also included samples collected in more distant allopatric sites. Clines in these traits were noncoincident, and there was no increase in either inbreeding coefficients or linkage disequilibrium at the centre of the zone. These results could suggest that the hybrid zone is maintained by weak selection against hybrids, conforming to either the tension zone or geographical selection-gradient model. However, a closer examination of clines in pelage and microsatellites indicates that these clines are not sigmoid or stepped in shape but instead plateau at their centre. Sites within the hybrid zone also occur in a distinct habitat, characterized by greater seasonality in precipitation and lower seasonality in temperature. Together, these findings suggest that the hybrid zone may follow the bounded superiority model, with exogenous selection favouring hybrids within the transitional zone. These findings are noteworthy, as examples supporting the bounded superiority model are rare and may indicate a process of ecologically driven speciation without geographical isolation.

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Objectives: Acetate brain metabolism has the particularity to occur specifically in glial cells. Labeling studies, using acetate labeled either with 13C (NMR) or 11C (PET), are governed by the same biochemical reactions and thus follow the same mathematical principles. In this study, the objective was to adapt an NMR acetate brain metabolism model to analyse [1-11C]acetate infusion in rats. Methods: Brain acetate infusion experiments were modeled using a two-compartment model approach used in NMR.1-3 The [1-11C]acetate labeling study was done using a beta scintillator.4 The measured radioactive signal represents the time evolution of the sum of all labeled metabolites in the brain. Using a coincidence counter in parallel, an arterial input curve was measured. The 11C at position C-1 of acetate is metabolized in the first turn of the TCA cycle to the position 5 of glutamate (Figure 1A). Through the neurotransmission process, it is further transported to the position 5 of glutamine and the position 5 of neuronal glutamate. After the second turn of the TCA cycle, tracer from [1-11C]acetate (and also a part from glial [5-11C]glutamate) is transferred to glial [1-11C]glutamate and further to [1-11C]glutamine and neuronal glutamate through the neurotransmission cycle. Brain poster session: oxidative mechanisms S460 Journal of Cerebral Blood Flow & Metabolism (2009) 29, S455-S466 Results: The standard acetate two-pool PET model describes the system by a plasma pool and a tissue pool linked by rate constants. Experimental data are not fully described with only one tissue compartment (Figure 1B). The modified NMR model was fitted successfully to tissue time-activity curves from 6 single animals, by varying the glial mitochondrial fluxes and the neurotransmission flux Vnt. A glial composite rate constant Kgtg=Vgtg/[Ace]plasma was extracted. Considering an average acetate concentration in plasma of 1 mmol/g5 and the negligible additional amount injected, we found an average Vgtg = 0.08±0.02 (n = 6), in agreement with previous NMR measurements.1 The tissue time-activity curve is dominated by glial glutamate and later by glutamine (Figure 1B). Labeling of neuronal pools has a low influence, at least for the 20 mins of beta-probe acquisition. Based on the high diffusivity of CO2 across the blood-brain barrier; 11CO2 is not predominant in the total tissue curve, even if the brain CO2 pool is big compared with other metabolites, due to its strong dilution through unlabeled CO2 from neuronal metabolism and diffusion from plasma. Conclusion: The two-compartment model presented here is also able to fit data of positron emission experiments and to extract specific glial metabolic fluxes. 11C-labeled acetate presents an alternative for faster measurements of glial oxidative metabolism compared to NMR, potentially applicable to human PET imaging. However, to quantify the relative value of the TCA cycle flux compared to the transmitochondrial flux, the chemical sensitivity of NMR is required. PET and NMR are thus complementary.

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RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.

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Predictive groundwater modeling requires accurate information about aquifer characteristics. Geophysical imaging is a powerful tool for delineating aquifer properties at an appropriate scale and resolution, but it suffers from problems of ambiguity. One way to overcome such limitations is to adopt a simultaneous multitechnique inversion strategy. We have developed a methodology for aquifer characterization based on structural joint inversion of multiple geophysical data sets followed by clustering to form zones and subsequent inversion for zonal parameters. Joint inversions based on cross-gradient structural constraints require less restrictive assumptions than, say, applying predefined petro-physical relationships and generally yield superior results. This approach has, for the first time, been applied to three geophysical data types in three dimensions. A classification scheme using maximum likelihood estimation is used to determine the parameters of a Gaussian mixture model that defines zonal geometries from joint-inversion tomograms. The resulting zones are used to estimate representative geophysical parameters of each zone, which are then used for field-scale petrophysical analysis. A synthetic study demonstrated how joint inversion of seismic and radar traveltimes and electrical resistance tomography (ERT) data greatly reduces misclassification of zones (down from 21.3% to 3.7%) and improves the accuracy of retrieved zonal parameters (from 1.8% to 0.3%) compared to individual inversions. We applied our scheme to a data set collected in northeastern Switzerland to delineate lithologic subunits within a gravel aquifer. The inversion models resolve three principal subhorizontal units along with some important 3D heterogeneity. Petro-physical analysis of the zonal parameters indicated approximately 30% variation in porosity within the gravel aquifer and an increasing fraction of finer sediments with depth.

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We formulate a new mixing model to explore hydrological and chemical conditions under which the interface between the stream and catchment interface (SCI) influences the release of reactive solutes into stream water during storms. Physically, the SCI corresponds to the hyporheic/riparian sediments. In the new model this interface is coupled through a bidirectional water exchange to the conventional two components mixing model. Simulations show that the influence of the SCI on stream solute dynamics during storms is detectable when the runoff event is dominated by the infiltrated groundwater component that flows through the SCI before entering the stream and when the flux of solutes released from SCI sediments is similar to, or higher than, the solute flux carried by the groundwater. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrate data from two small Mediterranean streams obtained during storms are compared to results from simulations using the new model to discern the circumstances under which the SCI is likely to control the dynamics of reactive solutes in streams. The simulations and the comparisons with empirical data suggest that the new mixing model may be especially appropriate for streams in which the periodic, or persistent, abrupt changes in the level of riparian groundwater exert hydrologic control on flux of biologically reactive fluxes between the riparian/hyporheic compartment and the stream water.

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Exposure to various pesticides has been characterized in workers and the general population, but interpretation and assessment of biomonitoring data from a health risk perspective remains an issue. For workers, a Biological Exposure Index (BEI®) has been proposed for some substances, but most BEIs are based on urinary biomarker concentrations at Threshold Limit Value - Time Weighted Average (TLV-TWA) airborne exposure while occupational exposure can potentially occurs through multiple routes, particularly by skin contact (i.e.captan, chlorpyrifos, malathion). Similarly, several biomonitoring studies have been conducted to assess environmental exposure to pesticides in different populations, but dose estimates or health risks related to these environmental exposures (mainly through the diet), were rarely characterized. Recently, biological reference values (BRVs) in the form of urinary pesticide metabolites have been proposed for both occupationally exposed workers and children. These BRVs were established using toxicokinetic models developed for each substance, and correspond to safe levels of absorption in humans, regardless of the exposure scenario. The purpose of this chapter is to present a review of a toxicokinetic modeling approach used to determine biological reference values. These are then used to facilitate health risk assessments and decision-making on occupational and environmental pesticide exposures. Such models have the ability to link absorbed dose of the parent compound to exposure biomarkers and critical biological effects. To obtain the safest BRVs for the studied population, simulations of exposure scenarios were performed using a conservative reference dose such as a no-observed-effect level (NOEL). The various examples discussed in this chapter show the importance of knowledge on urine collections (i.e. spot samples and complete 8-h, 12-h or 24-h collections), sampling strategies, metabolism, relative proportions of the different metabolites in urine, absorption fraction, route of exposure and background contribution of prior exposures. They also show that relying on urinary measurements of specific metabolites appears more accurate when applying this approach to the case of occupational exposures. Conversely, relying on semi-specific metabolites (metabolites common to a category of pesticides) appears more accurate for the health risk assessment of environmental exposures given that the precise pesticides to which subjects are exposed are often unknown. In conclusion, the modeling approach to define BRVs for the relevant pesticides may be useful for public health authorities for managing issues related to health risks resulting from environmental and occupational exposures to pesticides.