Variation of a test's sensitivity and specificity with disease prevalence

BACKGROUND Anecdotal evidence suggests that the sensitivity and specificity of a diagnostic test may vary with disease prevalence. Our objective was to investigate the associations between disease prevalence and test sensitivity and specificity using studies of diagnostic accuracy. METHODS We used data from 23 meta-analyses, each of which included 10-39 studies (416 total). The median prevalence per review ranged from 1% to 77%. We evaluated the effects of prevalence on sensitivity and specificity using a bivariate random-effects model for each meta-analysis, with prevalence as a covariate. We estimated the overall effect of prevalence by pooling the effects using the inverse variance method. RESULTS Within a given review, a change in prevalence from the lowest to highest value resulted in a corresponding change in sensitivity or specificity from 0 to 40 percentage points. This effect was statistically significant (p < 0.05) for either sensitivity or specificity in 8 meta-analyses (35%). Overall, specificity tended to be lower with higher disease prevalence; there was no such systematic effect for sensitivity. INTERPRETATION The sensitivity and specificity of a test often vary with disease prevalence; this effect is likely to be the result of mechanisms, such as patient spectrum, that affect prevalence, sensitivity and specificity. Because it may be difficult to identify such mechanisms, clinicians should use prevalence as a guide when selecting studies that most closely match their situation.

ANOVA kernels and RKHS of zero mean functions for model-based sensitivity analysis

Given a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (H,〈.,.〉)(H,〈.,.〉) of real-valued functions and a suitable measure μμ over the source space D⊂RD⊂R, we decompose HH as the sum of a subspace of centered functions for μμ and its orthogonal in HH. This decomposition leads to a special case of ANOVA kernels, for which the functional ANOVA representation of the best predictor can be elegantly derived, either in an interpolation or regularization framework. The proposed kernels appear to be particularly convenient for analyzing the effect of each (group of) variable(s) and computing sensitivity indices without recursivity.

Suppression of OCT4B enhances sensitivity of lung adenocarcinoma A549 cells to cisplatin via increased apoptosis

BACKGROUND Resistance to chemotherapy in lung adenocarcinoma remains a major obstacle. We examined the potential role of Octamer-binding transcription factor-4B (OCT4B) in enhancing sensitivity of lung adenocarcinoma cells to cisplatin. MATERIALS AND METHODS RNAi interference was used to examine the role of OCT4B in cisplatin-treated A549 cells. Cells were transfected with OCT4B siRNA prior to a 48-h cisplatin treatment. Propidium iodide (PI) and caspase-3 staining were used to determine cell viability and apoptosis. Cell-cycle analysis was performed to evaluate alterations in phase distribution. RESULTS OCT4B suppression in cells increased the number of non-viable, PI(+), and apoptotic, caspase-3(+) cells in the presence and absence of cisplatin treatment. Importantly, cisplatin treatment of OCT4B-suppressed cells resulted in a marked transition of cells from G0/G1 to G2/M phase. CONCLUSION Silencing of OCT4B confers sensitivity to cisplatin treatment in A549 cells via cell-cycle regulation, increased proliferation and enhancement of cisplatin-induced apoptosis. OCT4B clearly protects A549 cells from apoptosis.

Aerobic exercise but not resistance exercise reduces intrahepatic lipid content and visceral fat and improves insulin sensitivity in obese adolescent girls: a randomized controlled trial

It is unclear whether regular exercise alone (no caloric restriction) is a useful strategy to reduce adiposity and obesity-related metabolic risk factors in obese girls. We examined the effects of aerobic (AE) vs. resistance exercise (RE) alone on visceral adipose tissue (VAT), intrahepatic lipid, and insulin sensitivity in obese girls. Forty-four obese adolescent girls (BMI ≥95th percentile, 12-18 yr) with abdominal obesity (waist circumference 106.5 ± 11.1 cm) were randomized to 3 mo of 180 min/wk AE (n = 16) or RE (n = 16) or a nonexercising control group (n = 12). Total fat and VAT were assessed by MRI and intrahepatic lipid by proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Intermuscular AT (IMAT) was measured by CT. Insulin sensitivity was evaluated by a 3-h hyperinsulinemic (80 mU·m(2)·min(-1)) euglycemic clamp. Compared with controls (0.13 ± 1.10 kg), body weight did not change (P > 0.1) in the AE (-1.31 ± 1.43 kg) and RE (-0.31 ± 1.38 kg) groups. Despite the absence of weight loss, total body fat (%) and IMAT decreased (P < 0.05) in both exercise groups compared with control. Compared with control, significant (P < 0.05) reductions in VAT (Δ-15.68 ± 7.64 cm(2)) and intrahepatic lipid (Δ-1.70 ± 0.74%) and improvement in insulin sensitivity (Δ0.92 ± 0.27 mg·kg(-1)·min(-1) per μU/ml) were observed in the AE group but not the RE group. Improvements in insulin sensitivity in the AE group were associated with the reductions in total AT mass (r = -0.65, P = 0.02). In obese adolescent girls, AE but not RE is effective in reducing liver fat and visceral adiposity and improving insulin sensitivity independent of weight loss or calorie restriction.

Changes in emotion recognition relate to hypertension status

Background: Emotional processing in essential hypertension beyond self-report questionnaire has hardly been investigated. The aim of this study is to examine associations between hypertension status and recognition of facial affect. Methods: 25 healthy, non-smoking, medication-free men including 13 hypertensive subjects aged between 20 and 65 years completed a computer-based task in order to examine sensitivity of recognition of facial affect. Neutral faces gradually changed to a specific emotion in a pseudo-continuous manner. Slides of the six basic emotions (fear, sadness, disgust, happiness, anger, surprise) were chosen from the „NimStim Set“. Pictures of three female and three male faces were electronically morphed in 1% steps of intensity from 0% to 100% (36 sets of faces with 100 pictures each). Each picture of a set was presented for one second, ranging from 0% to 100% of intensity. Participants were instructed to press a stop button as soon as they recognized the expression of the face. After stopping a forced choice between the six basic emotions was required. As dependent variables, we recorded the emotion intensity at which the presentation was stopped and the number of errors (error rate). Recognition sensitivity was calculated as emotion intensity of correctly identified emotions. Results: Mean arterial pressure was associated with a significantly increased recognition sensitivity of facial affect for the emotion anger (ß = - .43, p = 0.03*, Δ R2= .110). There was no association with the emotions fear, sadness, disgust, happiness, and surprise (p’s > .0.41). Mean arterial pressure did not relate to the mean number of errors for any of the facial emotions. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that an increased blood pressure is associated with increased recognition sensitivity of facial affect for the emotion anger, if a face shows anger. Hypertensives perceive facial anger expression faster than normotensives, if anger is shown.

Northern hemispheric winter warming pattern after tropical volcanic eruptions: Sensitivity to the ozone climatology

An important key for the understanding of the dynamic response to large tropical volcanic eruptions is the warming of the tropical lower stratosphere and the concomitant intensification of the polar vortices. Although this mechanism is reproduced by most general circulation models today, most models still fail in producing an appropriate winter warming pattern in the Northern Hemisphere. In this study ensemble sensitivity experiments were carried out with a coupled atmosphere-ocean model to assess the influence of different ozone climatologies on the atmospheric dynamics and in particular on the northern hemispheric winter warming. The ensemble experiments were perturbed by a single Tambora-like eruption. Larger meridional gradients in the lower stratospheric ozone favor the coupling of zonal wind anomalies between the stratosphere and the troposphere after the eruption. The associated sea level pressure, temperature, and precipitation patterns are more pronounced and the northern hemispheric winter warming is highly significant. Conversely, weaker meridional ozone gradients lead to a weaker response of the winter warming and the associated patterns. The differences in the number of stratosphere-troposphere coupling events between the ensembles experiments indicate a nonlinear response behavior of the dynamics with respect to the ozone and the volcanic forcing.

Investigating the sensitivity of hurricane intensity and trajectory to sea surface temperatures using the regional model WRF

The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the hurricane characteristics are investigated in a set of sensitivity experiments employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The idealised experiments are performed for the case of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The first set of sensitivity experiments with basin-wide changes of the SST magnitude shows that the intensity goes along with changes in the SST, i.e., an increase in SST leads to an intensification of Katrina. Additionally, the trajectory is shifted to the west (east), with increasing (decreasing) SSTs. The main reason is a strengthening of the background flow. The second set of experiments investigates the influence of Loop Current eddies idealised by localised SST anomalies. The intensity of Hurricane Katrina is enhanced with increasing SSTs close to the core of a tropical cyclone. Negative nearby SST anomalies reduce the intensity. The trajectory only changes if positive SST anomalies are located west or north of the hurricane centre. In this case the hurricane is attracted by the SST anomaly which causes an additional moisture source and increased vertical winds.

High-sensitivity rod photoreceptor input to the blue-yellow color opponent pathway in macaque retina.

Small bistratified cells (SBCs) in the primate retina carry a major blue-yellow opponent signal to the brain. We found that SBCs also carry signals from rod photoreceptors, with the same sign as S cone input. SBCs exhibited robust responses under low scotopic conditions. Physiological and anatomical experiments indicated that this rod input arose from the AII amacrine cell-mediated rod pathway. Rod and cone signals were both present in SBCs at mesopic light levels. These findings have three implications. First, more retinal circuits may multiplex rod and cone signals than were previously thought to, efficiently exploiting the limited number of optic nerve fibers. Second, signals from AII amacrine cells may diverge to most or all of the approximately 20 retinal ganglion cell types in the peripheral primate retina. Third, rod input to SBCs may be the substrate for behavioral biases toward perception of blue at mesopic light levels.

Histamine reduces flash sensitivity of on ganglion cells in the primate retina.

PURPOSE. In Old World primates, the retina receives input from histaminergic neurons in the posterior hypothalamus. They are a subset of the neurons that project throughout the central nervous system and fire maximally during the day. The contribution of these neurons to vision, was examined by applying histamine to a dark-adapted, superfused baboon eye cup preparation while making extracellular recordings from peripheral retinal ganglion cells. METHODS. The stimuli were 5-ms, 560-nm, weak, full-field flashes in the low scotopic range. Ganglion cells with sustained and transient ON responses and two cell types with OFF responses were distinguished; their responses were recorded with a 16-channel microelectrode array. RESULTS. Low micromolar doses of histamine decreased the rate of maintained firing and the light sensitivity of ON ganglion cells. Both sustained and transient ON cells responded similarly to histamine. There were no statistically significant effects of histamine in a more limited study of OFF ganglion cells. The response latencies of ON cells were approximately 5 ms slower, on average, when histamine was present. Histamine also reduced the signal-to-noise ratio of ON cells, particularly in those cells with a histamine-induced increase in maintained activity. CONCLUSIONS. A major action of histamine released from retinopetal axons under dark-adapted conditions, when rod signals dominate the response, is to reduce the sensitivity of ON ganglion cells to light flashes. These findings may relate to reports that humans are less sensitive to light stimuli in the scotopic range during the day, when histamine release in the retina is expected to be at its maximum.

Recent trends in Inner Asian forest dynamics to temperature and precipitation indicate high sensitivity to climate change

Semi-arid ecosystems play an important role in regulating global climate with the fate of these ecosystems in the Anthropocene depending upon interactions among temperature, precipitation, and CO2. However, in cool-arid environments, precipitation is not the only limitation to forest productivity. Interactions between changes in precipitation and air temperature may enhance soil moisture stress while simultaneously extending growing season length, with unclear consequences for net carbon uptake. This study evaluates recent trends in productivity and phenology of Inner Asian forests (in Mongolia and Northern China) using satellite remote sensing, dendrochronology, and dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations to quantify the sensitivity of forest dynamics to decadal climate variability and trends. Trends in photosynthetically active radiation fraction (FPAR) between 1982 and 2010 show a greening of about 7% of the region in spring (March, April, May), and 3% of the area ‘browning’ during summertime (June, July, August). These satellite observations of FPAR are corroborated by trends in NPP simulated by the LPJ DGVM. Spring greening trends in FPAR are mainly explained by long-term trends in precipitation whereas summer browning trends are correlated with decreasing precipitation. Tree ring data from 25 sites confirm annual growth increments are mainly limited by summer precipitation (June, July, August) in Mongolia, and spring precipitation in northern China (March, April, May), with relatively weak prior-year lag effects. An ensemble of climate projections from the IPCC CMIP3 models indicates that warming temperatures (spring, summer) are expected to be associated with higher summer precipitation, which combined with CO2 causes large increases in NPP and possibly even greater forest cover in the Mongolian steppe. In the absence of a strong direct CO2 fertilization effect on plant growth (e.g., due to nutrient limitation), water stress or decreased carbon gain from higher autotrophic respiration results in decreased productivity and loss of forest cover. The fate of these semi-arid ecosystems thus appears to hinge upon the magnitude and subtleties of CO2 fertilization effects, for which experimental observations in arid systems are needed to test and refine vegetation models.

Molecular analysis of TNF sensitivity in normal and Ha-{\it ras\/} transformed murine fibroblasts

Tumor necrosis factor (TNF) is known to have antiproliferative effects on a wide variety of tumor cells but proliferative effects on normal cells. However, the molecular basis for such differences in the action of TNF are unknown. The overall objectives of my research are to investigate the role of oncogenes in TNF sensitivity and delineate some of the molecular mechanisms involved in TNF sensitivity and resistance. To accomplish these objectives, I transfected TNF-resistant C3H mouse embryo fibroblasts (10T1/2) with an activated Ha-ras oncogene and determined whether these cells exhibit altered sensitivity to TNF. The results indicated that 10T1/2 cells transfected with an activated Ha-ras oncogene (10T-EJ) not only produced tumors in nude mice but also exhibited extreme sensitivity to cytolysis by TNF. In contrast, 10T1/2 cells transfected with the pSV2-neo gene alone were resistant to the cytotoxic effects of TNF. I also found that TNF-induced cell death was mediated through apoptosis. The differential sensitivity of 10T1/2 and 10T-EJ cell lines to TNF was not due to differences in the number of TNF receptors on their cell surface. In addition, TNF-resistant revertants isolated from Ha-ras-transformed, TNF-sensitive cells still expressed the same amount of p21 as TNF-sensitive cells and were still tumorigenic, suggesting that Ha-ras-induced transformation and TNF sensitivity may follow different pathways. Interestingly, TNF-resistant but not sensitive cells expressed higher levels of bcl-2, c-myc, and manganese superoxide dismutase (MnSOD) mRNA following exposure to TNF. However, TNF treatment resulted in a marginal induction of p53 mRNA in both TNF-sensitive and resistant cells. Based on these results I can conclude that (i) Ha-ras oncogene induces both transformation and TNF sensitivity, (ii) TNF-induced cytotoxicity involves apoptosis, and (iii) TNF-induced upregulation of bcl-2, c-myc, and MnSOD genes is associated with TNF resistance in C3H mouse embryo fibroblasts. ^

Development of micro-electrospray mass spectrometry for ultra high sensitivity and application in the study of drugs of abuse on endogenous \lbrack Met\rbrack $\sp5$-enkephalin release

A micro-electrospray interface was developed specifically for the neurobiological applications described in this dissertation. Incorporation of a unique nano-flow liquid chromatography micro-electrospray "needle" into the micro-electrospray interface (micro-ES/MS) increased the sensitivity of the mass spectrometric assay by $\sim$1000 fold and thus permitted the first analysis of specific neuroactive compounds in brain extracellular fluid collected by in vivo microdialysis (Md).^ Initial in vivo data presented deals with the pharmacodynamics of a novel GABA$\sb{\rm B}$ antagonist and the availability of the compound in its parent (unmetabolized) form to the brain of the anesthetized rat. Next, the first structurally specific endogenous release of (Met) $\sp5$-enkephalin was demonstrated in unanesthetized freely-moving animals (release of $\sim$6.5 fmole of (Met) $\sp5$-enkephalin into the dialysate by direct neuronal depolarization). The Md/micro-ES/MS system was used to test the acute effects of drugs of abuse on the endogenous release of (Met) $\sp5$-enkephalin from the globus pallidus/ventral pallidum brain region in rats. Four drugs known to be abused by man (morphine, cocaine, methamphetamine and diazepam) were tested. Morphine and cocaine both elicited a two-fold or more increase in the release of (Met) $\sp5$-enkephalin over vehicle controls. Diazepam elicited a small decrease in (Met) $\sp5$-enkephalin levels and methamphetamine showed no significant effect on (Met) $\sp5$-enkephalin. These results imply that (Met) $\sp5$-enkephalin may be involved in the reward pathway of certain drugs of abuse. ^