Organizational responses to technological discontinuities: the case of the American College of Radiology (ACR)

A long history of organizational research has shown that organizations are affected significantly by changes in technology. Scholars have given particular attention to the effects of so-called disruptive or discontinuous technological changes. Studies have repeatedly shown that established, incumbent organizations tend to suffer deep performance declines (and even complete demise) in the face of such changes, and researchers have devoted much attention to identifying the organizational conditions and processes that are responsible for this persistent and widespread pattern of adaptation failure. This dissertation, which examines the response of the American College of Radiology (ACR) to the emergence of nuclear magnetic resonance imaging technology (NMR), aims to contribute to this well-established research tradition in three distinct and important ways. First, it focuses on a fundamentally different type of organization, a professional association, rather than the technology producers examined in most prior research. Although technologies are well known to be embedded in “communities” that include technology producers, suppliers, customers, governmental entities, professional societies, and other entities, most prior research has focused on the responses and ultimate fate of producers alone. Little if any research has explored the responses of professional organizations in particular. Second, the study employs a sophisticated process methodology that identifies the individual events that make up the organization’s response to technological change, as well as the overall sequence through which these events unfold. This process approach contrasts sharply with the variance models used in most previous studies and offers the promise of developing knowledge about how adaptation ultimately unfolds (or fails to). Finally, the project also contributes significantly through its exploration of an apparently successful case of adaptation to technological change. Though nuclear magnetic resonance imaging posed a serious threat to the ACR and its members, this threat appears to have been successfully managed and overcome. Although the unique nature of the organization and the technology under study place some important limits on the generalizablity of this research, its findings nonetheless provide some important basic insights about the process through which social organizations can successfully adapt to discontinuous technological changes. These insights, which may also be of substantial relevance to technology producer organizations, will also be elaborated.

Fishing effort and fish yield over a 15 year period on Lake Victoria, Uganda: management implications

The National Fisheries Resources Research Institute (NaFIRRI), the Directorate of Fisheries Resources (DiFR), the Local Government fisheries staff and those from the Beach Management Units (BMUs) of the riparian districts to Lake Victoria regularly and jointly conduct Frame and Catch Assessment Surveys. The information obtained is used to guide fisheries management and development. We reveal the trends in the commercial fish catch landings and fishing effort on the Uganda side of Lake Victoria, over a 15 year period (2000-2015) and provide the underlying factors to the observed changes. The contribution of the high value large size species (Nile perch and Tilapia) to the commercial catch of Lake Victoria has significantly reduced while that of the low value small size species, Mukene has increased over a ten year (2005-2015)period. The information is intended to update and sensitize the key stakeholders on the status of the Lake Victoria fisheries. In addition, the information provided is expected to guide policy formulation and management planning by the fisheries managers at all levels including the BMUs and Landing Site Management Committees (LSMCs), the Local government fisheries staff and the Directorate of Fisheries Resources. The information is anticipated to create awareness among the lakeside fisher communities to reverse the current trend in fish declines.

Paths to peace: conflict management trajectories in militarized interstate disputes

When multiple third-parties (states, coalitions, and international organizations) intervene in the same conflict, do their efforts inform one another? Anecdotal evidence suggests such a possibility, but research to date has not attempted to model this interdependence directly. The current project breaks with that tradition. In particular, it proposes three competing explanations of how previous intervention efforts affect current intervention decisions: a cost model (and a variant on it, a limited commitments model), a learning model, and a random model. After using a series of Markov transition (regime-switching) models to evaluate conflict management behavior within militarized interstate disputes in the 1946-2001 period, this study concludes that third-party intervention efforts inform one another. More specifically, third-parties examine previous efforts and balance their desire to manage conflict with their need to minimize intervention costs (the cost and limited commitments models). As a result, third-parties intervene regularly using verbal pleas and mediation, but rely significantly less frequently on legal, administrative, or peace operations strategies. This empirical threshold to the intervention costs that third-parties are willing to bear has strong theoretical foundations and holds across different time periods and third-party actors. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that the first third-party to intervene in a conflict is most likely to use a strategy designed to help the disputants work toward a resolution of their dispute. After this initial intervention, the level of third-party involvement declines and often devolves into a series of verbal pleas for peace. Such findings cumulatively suggest that disputants hold the key to effective conflict management. If the disputants adopt and maintain an extreme bargaining position or fail to encourage third-parties to accept greater intervention costs, their dispute will receive little more than verbal pleas for negotiations and peace.

Carbon losses in terrestrial hydrological pathways in sugarcane cropping systems of Australia

Climate change and carbon (C) sequestration are a major focus of research in the twenty-first century. Globally, soils store about 300 times the amount of C that is released per annum through the burning of fossil fuels (Schulze and Freibauer 2005). Land clearing and introduction of agricultural systems have led to rapid declines in soil C reserves. The recent introduction of conservation agricultural practices has not led to a reversing of the decline in soil C content, although it has minimized the rate of decline (Baker et al. 2007; Hulugalle and Scott 2008). Lal (2003) estimated the quantum of C pools in the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and oceans and reported a “missing C” component in the world C budget. Though not proven yet, this could be linked to C losses through runoff and soil erosion (Lal 2005) and a lack of C accounting in inland water bodies (Cole et al. 2007). Land management practices to minimize the microbial respiration and soil organic C (SOC) decline such as minimum tillage or no tillage were extensively studied in the past, and the soil erosion and runoff studies monitoring those management systems focused on other nutrients such as nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P).

Assessing and reducing vulnerability to climate change: Moving from theory to practical decision-support

As climate change continues to impact socio-ecological systems, tools that assist conservation managers to understand vulnerability and target adaptations are essential. Quantitative assessments of vulnerability are rare because available frameworks are complex and lack guidance for dealing with data limitations and integrating across scales and disciplines. This paper describes a semi-quantitative method for assessing vulnerability to climate change that integrates socio-ecological factors to address management objectives and support decision-making. The method applies a framework first adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and uses a structured 10-step process. The scores for each framework element are normalized and multiplied to produce a vulnerability score and then the assessed components are ranked from high to low vulnerability. Sensitivity analyses determine which indicators most influence the analysis and the resultant decision-making process so data quality for these indicators can be reviewed to increase robustness. Prioritisation of components for conservation considers other economic, social and cultural values with vulnerability rankings to target actions that reduce vulnerability to climate change by decreasing exposure or sensitivity and/or increasing adaptive capacity. This framework provides practical decision-support and has been applied to marine ecosystems and fisheries, with two case applications provided as examples: (1) food security in Pacific Island nations under climate-driven fish declines, and (2) fisheries in the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia. The step-wise process outlined here is broadly applicable and can be undertaken with minimal resources using existing data, thereby having great potential to inform adaptive natural resource management in diverse locations.

O CogWeb e os idosos com baixa escolaridade

Os declínios cognitivo podem ser considerados normais a partir dos 60 anos. Estudos comprovam a relação entre o treino cognitivo e a melhoria no desempenho das funções cognitivas. Porém a informação acerca da possibilidade do treino cognitivo facilitar a alfabetização dos idosos ainda não é suficiente. Este é um estudo quantitativo, observacional, descritivo e inferencial cujo objetivo é averiguar se o programa de treino cognitivo CogWeb pode ser utilizado por idosos com baixo nível de alfabetização. A caracterização da amostra é feita a partir de um questionário sociodemográfico, o estado mental é medido com o Mini Exame do Estado Mental, o nível de alfabetização é medido com Provas de Avaliação dos Processos de Leitura e o treino cognitivo é realizado com a versão impressa do programa CogWeb.

Changes in the annual harmful algal blooms of Alexandrium minutum : effects of environmental conditions and drainage basin inputs in the Rance estuary (Brittany, France)

Time series of physico-chemical data and concentrations (cell L-1) of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium minutum collected in the Rance macrotidal estuary (Brittany, France) were analyzed to understand the physico-chemical processes of the estuary and their relation to changes in bloom development from 1996 to 2009. The construction of the tidal power plant in the north and the presence of a lock in the south have greatly altered hydrodynamics, blocking the zone of maximum turbidity upstream, in the narrowest part of the estuary. Alexandrium minutum occurs in the middle part of the estuary. Most physical and chemical parameters of the Rance estuary are similar to those observed elsewhere in Brittany with water temperatures between 15–18 °C, slightly lowered salinities (31.8–33.1 PSU), low river flow rates upstream and significant solar radiation (8 h day-1). A notable exception is phosphate input from the drainage basin which seems to limit bloom development: in recent years, bloom decline can be significantly correlated with the decrease in phosphate input. On the other hand, the chemical processes occurring in the freshwater-saltwater interface do not seem to have an influence on these occurrences. The other hypotheses for bloom declines are discussed, including the prevalence of parasitism, but remain to be verified in further studies.

Studying the Causes and Consequences of Internal Labor Migration Using Survey and Administrative Data Sources

This dissertation comprises three chapters. The first chapter motivates the use of a novel data set combining survey and administrative sources for the study of internal labor migration. By following a sample of individuals from the American Community Survey (ACS) across their employment outcomes over time according to the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) database, I construct a measure of geographic labor mobility that allows me to exploit information about individuals prior to their move. This enables me to explore aspects of the migration decision, such as homeownership and employment status, in ways that have not previously been possible. In the second chapter, I use this data set to test the theory that falling home prices affect a worker’s propensity to take a job in a different metropolitan area from where he is currently located. Employing a within-CBSA and time estimation that compares homeowners to renters in their propensities to relocate for jobs, I find that homeowners who have experienced declines in the nominal value of their homes are approximately 12% less likely than average to take a new job in a location outside of the metropolitan area where they currently reside. This evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that housing lock-in has contributed to the decline in labor mobility of homeowners during the recent housing bust. The third chapter focuses on a sample of unemployed workers in the same data set, in order to compare the unemployment durations of those who find subsequent employment by relocating to a new metropolitan area, versus those who find employment in their original location. Using an instrumental variables strategy to address the endogeneity of the migration decision, I find that out-migrating for a new job significantly reduces the time to re-employment. These results stand in contrast to OLS estimates, which suggest that those who move have longer unemployment durations. This implies that those who migrate for jobs in the data may be particularly disadvantaged in their ability to find employment, and thus have strong short-term incentives to relocate.

Community- and population-level effects of chytridiomycosis in a Neotropical amphibian community

As the number of fungal pathogen outbreaks become more frequent worldwide across taxa, so have the number of species extirpations and communities persisting with the pathogen. This phenomenon raises questions, such as: “what leads to host extinction during an outbreak?” and “how are hosts persisting once the pathogen establishes?.” But the data on host populations and communities across life stages before and after pathogen arrival rarely exist to answer these questions. Over the past three to four decades, the amphibian-killing fungus Batrachochytrim dendrobatidis (Bd) spread in a wave-like manner across Central America, leading to rapid species extirpations and population declines. I collected data on tadpole and adult amphibians in El Copé, Panama before, during, and after the Bd outbreak to answer these questions. I used Bayesian statistical approaches to account for imperfect host and pathogen detection of marked and unmarked individuals. In the tadpole community, within 11 months of Bds arrival, density and occupancy rapidly declined. Species losses were phylogenetically correlated, with glass frogs disappearing first, and tree frogs and poison-dart frogs remaining. I found that tadpole communities resembled one another more strongly after the outbreak than they did before Bd invasion. I found no tadpoles within 22 months of the outbreak and limited signs of recovery within 10 years. In contrast, at the same site, for a population of male glass frogs, Espadarana prosopleon, I found that 10 years post-outbreak, the population was consistently half its historic abundance, and that the lack of recruits to the population explained why the population had not rebounded, rather than high pathogen-induced mortality. And finally, examining the entire amphibian community, I found high pathogen prevalence, low infection intensities, and high survival rates of uninfected and infected hosts. Bd transmission risk, i.e., the probability a susceptible host becomes infected, did not relate to host density, pathogen prevalence, or infection intensity– Bd transmission risk was uniform across the study area. My results are especially relevant to conservation biologists aiming to predict the future impacts of Bd outbreaks, those trying to manage persisting populations, and those interested in reintroducing species back into wild amphibian communities.

Essays on Uncertainty, Imperfect Information, and Investment Dynamics

Understanding how imperfect information affects firms' investment decision helps answer important questions in economics, such as how we may better measure economic uncertainty; how firms' forecasts would affect their decision-making when their beliefs are not backed by economic fundamentals; and how important are the business cycle impacts of changes in firms' productivity uncertainty in an environment of incomplete information. This dissertation provides a synthetic answer to all these questions, both empirically and theoretically. The first chapter, provides empirical evidence to demonstrate that survey-based forecast dispersion identifies a distinctive type of second moment shocks different from the canonical volatility shocks to productivity, i.e. uncertainty shocks. Such forecast disagreement disturbances can affect the distribution of firm-level beliefs regardless of whether or not belief changes are backed by changes in economic fundamentals. At the aggregate level, innovations that increase the dispersion of firms' forecasts lead to persistent declines in aggregate investment and output, which are followed by a slow recovery. On the contrary, the larger dispersion of future firm-specific productivity innovations, the standard way to measure economic uncertainty, delivers the ``wait and see" effect, such that aggregate investment experiences a sharp decline, followed by a quick rebound, and then overshoots. At the firm level, data uncovers that more productive firms increase investments given rises in productivity dispersion for the future, whereas investments drop when firms disagree more about the well-being of their future business conditions. These findings challenge the view that the dispersion of the firms' heterogeneous beliefs captures the concept of economic uncertainty, defined by a model of uncertainty shocks. The second chapter presents a general equilibrium model of heterogeneous firms subject to the real productivity uncertainty shocks and informational disagreement shocks. As firms cannot perfectly disentangle aggregate from idiosyncratic productivity because of imperfect information, information quality thus drives the wedge of difference between the unobserved productivity fundamentals, and the firms' beliefs about how productive they are. Distribution of the firms' beliefs is no longer perfectly aligned with the distribution of firm-level productivity across firms. This model not only explains why, at the macro and micro level, disagreement shocks are different from uncertainty shocks, as documented in Chapter 1, but helps reconcile a key challenge faced by the standard framework to study economic uncertainty: a trade-off between sizable business cycle effects due to changes in uncertainty, and the right amount of pro-cyclicality of firm-level investment rate dispersion, as measured by its correlation with the output cycles.

ESSAYS ON DISPLACED WORKERS AND RESIDENTIAL MIGRATION

In this dissertation, I explore how workers’ human capital, local industry composition, and business cycles affect employment outcomes and residential migration for job losers and other workers. I first examine whether the poor employment outcomes of job losers are due to a lack of jobs that require their human capital within their local labor market. I answer this question by analyzing the extent to which the industry composition in the job loser’s local labor market affects employment outcomes when job loss occurs during expansions and during recessions. I find that if job losers reside in an area with a high employment concentration of their original industry of employment, they are 2.1-2.8 percent more likely to be re-employed at another job if job loss occurs during an expansion; I find an insignificant relationship in most specifications when job loss occurs during a recession, and in some specifications I even find a negative relationship between industry concentration and employment. I conclude that the industry composition within an area matters for job losers, since firms are more willing to hire workers from within their own industry, as these workers have more relevant accumulated human capital. However, firms are less likely to hire during a recession, making job losers’ human capital less important for job finding. Next, Erika McEntarfer, Henry Hyatt, and I examine whether the business cycle affects earnings changes for job losers, and the factors that explain these differences across time. We find that job losers who lost their job during the Great Recession have earnings changes that are 10 percent more negative relative to other job losers from other periods. This result is driven primarily by longer nonemployment lengths and worse subsequent job matches. Finally, Erika McEntarfer, Henry Hyatt, Alexandria Zhang, and I explore the extent to which residential migration is driven by job opportunities. We use four databases and find that changes in job moves explain some of the changes in residential migration, but the relationship is not as strong as previously documented. We find that migration patterns differ across databases, with some databases documenting steeper declines and more cyclicality.

Essays on Macroeconomic Trends and Cycles

This dissertation describes two studies on macroeconomic trends and cycles. The first chapter studies the impact of Information Technology (IT) on the U.S. labor market. Over the past 30 years, employment and income shares of routine-intensive occupations have declined significantly relative to nonroutine occupations, and the overall U.S. labor income share has declined relative to capital. Furthermore, the decline of routine employment has been largely concentrated during recessions and ensuing recoveries. I build a model of unbalanced growth to assess the role of computerization and IT in driving these labor market trends and cycles. I augment a neoclassical growth model with exogenous IT progress as a form of Routine-Biased Technological Change (RBTC). I show analytically that RBTC causes the overall labor income share to follow a U-shaped time path, as the monotonic decline of routine labor share is increasingly offset by the monotonic rise of nonroutine labor share and the elasticity of substitution between the overall labor and capital declines under IT progress. Quantitatively, the model explains nearly all the divergence between routine and nonroutine labor in the period 1986-2014, as well as the mild decline of the overall labor share between 1986 and the early 2000s. However, the model with IT progress alone cannot explain the accelerated decline of labor income share after the early 2000s, suggesting that other factors, such as globalization, may have played a larger role in this period. Lastly, when nonconvex labor adjustment costs are present, the model generates a stepwise decline in routine labor hours, qualitatively consistent with the data. The timing of these trend adjustments can be significantly affected by aggregate productivity shocks and concentrated in recessions. The second chapter studies the implications of loss aversion on the business cycle dynamics of aggregate consumption and labor hours. Loss aversion refers to the fact that people are distinctively more sensitive to losses than to gains. Loss averse agents are very risk averse around the reference point and exhibit asymmetric responses to positive and negative income shocks. In an otherwise standard Real Business Cycle (RBC) model, I study loss aversion in both consumption alone and consumption-and-leisure together. My results indicate that how loss aversion affects business cycle dynamics depends critically on the nature of the reference point. If, for example, the reference point is status quo, loss aversion dramatically lowers the effective inter-temporal rate of substitution and induces excessive consumption smoothing. In contrast, if the reference point is fixed at a constant level, loss aversion generates a flat region in the decision rules and asymmetric impulse responses to technology shocks. Under a reasonable parametrization, loss aversion has the potential to generate asymmetric business cycles with deeper and more prolonged recessions.

Relationship between hyperacute blood pressure and outcome after ischemic stroke: data from the VISTA Collaboration

Background and Purpose—High blood pressure (BP) is associated independently with poor outcome after acute ischemic stroke, although in most analyses “baseline” BP was measured 24 hours or more postictus, and not during the hyperacute period. Methods—Analyses included 1722 patients in hyperacute trials (recruitment 8 hours) from the Virtual Stroke International Stroke Trial Archive (VISTA) Collaboration. Data on BP at enrolment and after 1, 2, 16, 24, 48, and 72 hours, neurological impairment at 7 days (NIHSS), and functional outcome at 90 days (modified Rankin scale) were assessed using logistic regression models, adjusted for confounding variables; results are for 10-mm Hg change in BP. Results—Mean time to enrolment was 3.7 hours (range 1.0 to 7.9). High systolic BP (SBP) was significantly associated with increased neurological impairment (odds ratio, OR 1.06, 95% confidence interval, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.12), and poor functional outcome; odds ratios for both increased with later BP measurements made at up to 24 hours poststroke. Smaller (versus larger) declines in SBP over the first 24 hours were significantly associated with poor NIHSS scores (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.27) and functional outcome (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.34). A large variability in SBP was also associated with poor functional outcome. Conclusions—High SBP and large variability in SBP in the hyperacute stages of ischemic stroke are associated with increased neurological impairment and poor functional outcome, as are small falls in SBP over the first 24 hours.

Behavioral Response to Environmental Taxation: Evidence from the Transportation Sector

This dissertation analyzes how individuals respond to the introduction of taxation aimed to reduce vehicle pollution, greenhouse gases and traffic. The first chapter analyzes a vehicle registration tax based on emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), a major greenhouse gas, adopted in the UK in 2001 and subject to major changes in the following years. I identify the impact of the policy on new vehicle registrations and carbon emissions, compared to alternative measures. Results show that consumers respond to the tax by purchasing cleaner cars, but a carbon tax generating the same revenue would further reduce carbon emissions. The second chapter looks at a pollution charge (polluting vehicles pay to enter the city) and a congestion charge (all vehicles pay) adopted in 2008 and 2011 in Milan, Italy, and how they affected the concentration of nitrogen dioxides (NOx). I use data from pollution monitoring stations to measure the change between areas adopting the tax and other areas. Results show that in the first quarter of their introduction, both policies decreased NOx concentration in a range of -8% and -5%, but the effect declines over time, especially in the case of the pollution charge. The third chapter examines a trial conducted in 2005 in the Seattle, WA, area, in which vehicle trips by 276 volunteer households were recorded with a GPS device installed in their vehicles. Households received a monetary endowment which they used to pay a toll for each mile traveled: the toll varied with the time of the day, the day of the week and the type of road used. Using information on driving behavior, I show that in the first week a $0.10 toll per mile reduces the number of miles driven by around 7%, but the effect lasts only few weeks at most. The effect is mainly driven by a reduction in highway miles during trips from work to home, and it is strongly influenced by past driving behavior, income, the size of the initial endowment and the number of children in the household.

The Role of Mucosal Defense in Intestinal Injury of Infants With Fetal Growth Retardation

Background: Infants with fetal growth retardation (FGR) are prone to intestinal disorders. Objectives: Aim of the study was to determine the role of mucosal defense ability in formation of gut injury in infants with FGR. Materials and Methods: 44 premature infants who were admitted to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit were divided into two groups: 20 infants with FGR (FGR group) and 24 appropriate-for-gestational age newborns (AGA group). Control group consisted of 22 premature infants who were delivered after uncomplicated pregnancy. Gut barrier function was evaluated by detecting serum intestinal trefoil factor (ITF) and intestinal fatty acid binding protein (IFABP). The level of serum IFABP and ITF was measured by using ELISA method. Results: FGR group showed significantly higher ITF concentration than AGA group on the first days of life (P ˂ 0.01). High level of ITF in the FGR group significantly declines up to 7th - 10th day of life (P ˂ 0.01). This reduction was accompanied by increase of IFABP which is a marker of ischemic intestinal mucosal injury. Correlation analyses showed that ITF had a negative correlation with IFABP. Conclusions: Infants with fetal growth retardation are characterized by a high level of ITF on the first days of life. This protects intestinal mucosa under hypoxic conditions. Its subsequent decline accompanied by an increase of IFABP reflects the depletion of Goblet cells to secret ITF causing damage to the integrity of intestinal mucosal barrier.