886 resultados para Crowd wisdom


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In his famous children’s book, “Jim Button and Luke the Engine Driver”, Michael Ende describes a curious character: A phantom giant. Clothed in rags and with a long beard, the phantom giant appears enormous from far away, but shrinks to normal size as one gets closer. Most people avoid the poor creature, but the ones that dare approach it encounter a gentle, lonely being called Mr. Tur Tur. Chemical ecology is just the opposite of Mr. Tur Tur: A phantom dwarf. Or, in other words, an inverted phantom giant. From a distance, chemical ecology appears like a slightly odd, marginal section of biology and chemistry. But, as the interested scholar approaches, it starts growing and very quickly reaches gigantic dimensions, because all life is explained by chemistry, and all biological chemistry is guided by ecological principles. Herein lies the difficulty with chemical ecology: As it is not perceived well by biologists and chemists, few approach it to understand its significance, and the ones that do find themselves in front of a giant that defies their attempts to define and contain it. This is where the Journal of Chemical Ecology comes in: It invites us to take a closer look at an underestimated discipline and supports us to explore it and deal with its multidimensionality through the promotion of knowledge and methods. These services are unique and make the journal stand out of the crowd of scientific journals. Writing children’s books has become difficult in the era of information technology. And, so has the job of the Journal of Chemical Ecology. Young scientists gather information through accessible, dynamic websites and social platforms. They want articles that are available through a single mouse click, anywhere, anytime. They prefer advanced interactive hypertext protocols over clumsy pdf files. They care about transparency, non-profit and open access just as much as about traditional journal properties. In my view, reaching “the kids” is the major challenge of the Journal over the next years. Promoting an inverted phantom giant in the 21st century requires a combination of high-quality information and boosted visibility. In Michael Ende’s book, Jim and Luke follow exactly this strategy with Mr. Tur Tur: They become friends and offer him a job as a living lighthouse to protect their small island. They combine a quality relationship with high visibility, et voilà, the story ends well! I am looking forward to seeing if the Journal of Chemical Ecology will follow a similar path to reach the next generation of biologists and chemists. If yes, there is a good chance that in 40 years from now, somebody will write a laudation and refer to another famous book by Michael Ende: “The Neverending Story”.

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People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others’ benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making.

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When proposing primary control (changing the world to fit self)/secondary control (changing self to fit the world) theory, Weisz et al. (1984) argued for the importance of the “serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can” (p. 967), and the wisdom to choose the right control strategy that fits the context. Although the dual processes of control theory generated hundreds of empirical studies, most of them focused on the dichotomy of PC and SC, with none of these tapped into the critical concept: individuals’ ability to know when to use what. This project addressed this issue by using scenario questions to study the impact of situationally adaptive control strategies on youth well-being. To understand the antecedents of youths’ preference for PC or SC, we also connected PCSC theory with Dweck’s implicit theory about the changeability of the world. We hypothesized that youths’ belief about the world’s changeability impacts how difficult it was for them to choose situationally adaptive control orientation, which then impacts their well-being. This study included adolescents and emerging adults between the ages of 18 and 28 years (Mean = 20.87 years) from the US (n = 98), China (n = 100), and Switzerland (n = 103). Participants answered a questionnaire including a measure of implicit theories about the fixedness of the external world, a scenario-based measure of control orientation, and several measures of well-being. Preliminary analyses of the scenario-based control orientation measures showed striking cross-cultural similarity of preferred control responses: while for three of the six scenarios primary control was the predominately chosen control response in all cultures, for the other three scenarios secondary control was the predominately chosen response. This suggested that youths across cultures are aware that some situations call for primary control, while others demand secondary control. We considered the control strategy winning the majority of the votes to be the strategy that is situationally adaptive. The results of a multi-group structural equation mediation model with the extent of belief in a fixed world as independent variable, the difficulties of carrying out the respective adaptive versus non-adaptive control responses as two mediating variables and the latent well-being variable as dependent variable showed a cross-culturally similar pattern of effects: a belief in a fixed world was significantly related to higher difficulties in carrying out the normative as well as the non-normative control response, but only the difficulty of carrying out the normative control response (be it primary control in situations where primary control is normative or secondary control in situations where secondary control is normative) was significantly related to a lower reported well-being (while the difficulty of carrying out the non-normative response was unrelated to well-being). While previous research focused on cross-cultural differences on the choice of PC or SC, this study shed light on the universal necessity of applying the right kind of control to fit the situation.

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Introduction: Fan violence is a frequent occurrence in Swiss football (Bundesamt für Polizei, 2015) leading to high costs for prevention and control (Mensch & Maurer, 2014). Various theories put forward an explanation of fan violence, such as the Elaborated Social Identity Model (Drury & Reicher, 2000) and the Aggravation Mitigation Model (Hylander & Guvå, 2010). Important observations from these theories are the multi-dimensional understanding of fan violence and the dynamics occurring in the fan group. Nevertheless, none of them deal with critical incidents (CIs) which involve a tense atmosphere combined with a higher risk of fan violence. Schumacher Dimech, Brechbühl and Seiler (2015) tackled this gap in research and explored CIs where 43 defining criteria were identified and compiled in an integrated model of CIs. The defining criteria were categorised in four higher-order themes “antecedents” (e.g. a documented history of fan rivalry), “triggers” (e.g. the arrest of a fan), “reactions” (e.g. fans masking themselves) and “consequences” (e.g. fans avoiding communication with fan social workers). Methods: An inventory based on this model is being developed including these 43 criteria. In an exploratory phase, this inventory was presented as an online questionnaire and was completed by 143 individuals. Three main questions are examined: Firstly, the individual items are tested using descriptive analyses. An item analysis is conducted to test reliability, item difficulty and discriminatory power. Secondly, the model’s four higher-order themes are tested using exploratory factor analysis (EFA). Thirdly, differences between sub-groups are explored, such as gender and agerelated differences. Results: Respondents rated the items’ importance as high and the quota of incomplete responses was not systematic. Two items were removed from the inventory because of low mean or a high rate of “don’t know”-responses. EFA produced a six-factor solution grouping items into match-related factors, repressive measures, fans’ delinquent behaviour, intra-group behaviour, communication and control and inter-group factors. The item “fans consume alcohol” could not be ordered into any category but was retained since literature accentuates this factor’s influence on fan violence. Analyses examining possible differences between groups are underway. Discussion: Results exploring the adequacy of this inventory assessing defining criteria of CIs in football are promising and thus further evaluative investigation is recommended. This inventory can be used in two ways: as a standardised instrument of assessment for experts evaluating specific CIs and as an instrument for exploring differences in perception and assessment of a CI e.g. gender and age differences, differences between interest groups and stakeholders. References: Bundesamt für Polizei. (2015). Jahresbericht 2014. Kriminalitätsbekämpfung Bund. Lage, Massnahmen und Mittel [Electronic Version]. Drury, J., & Reicher, S. (2000). Collective action and psychological change. The emergence of new social identities. British Journal of Social Psychology, 39, 579-604. Hylander, I., & Guvå, G. (2010). Misunderstanding of out-group behaviour: Different interpretations of the same crowd events among police officers and demonstrators. Nordic Psychology, 62, 25-47. Schumacher-Dimech, A., Brechbühl, A. &, Seiler, R. (2016). Dynamics of critical incidents with potentially violent outcomes involving ultra fans: an explorative study. Sport in Society. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1080/17430437.2015.1133597

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For Jewish-Hellenistic authors writing in Egypt, the Exodus story posed unique challenges. After all, to them Egypt was, as Philo of Alexandria states, their fatherland. How do these authors come to terms with the biblical story of liberation from Egyptian slavery and the longing for the promised land? In this chapter I am taking a close look at Philo’s detailed discussion of the Exodus and locate it within the larger context of Jewish-Hellenistic literature (Wisdom of Solomon, Ezekiel’s Exagoge). In Philo’s rewriting of the Exodus the destination of the journey is barely mentioned. Contrary to the biblical narrative, in the scene of the burning bush, as retold by Philo, God does not tell Moses where to go. Philo’s main concern is what happens in Egypt: both in biblical times and in his own days. The Exodus is nevertheless important to Philo: He reads the story allegorically as a journey from the land of the body to the realms of the mind. Such a symbolic reading permitted him to control the meaning of the Exodus and to stay, literally and figuratively, in Egypt.

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Conventional wisdom suggests that environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs) play a major role in pushing states towards more ambitious environmental policies. However, demonstrating that this presumption is in fact true is rather difficult, because the same system structures of democracies that may create more opportunities for ENGO activities are also, on their own, conducive to better environmental policies. This leaves open the possibility that the additional (marginal) impact of ENGOs on policy making is smaller than presumed. In trying to disentangle these effects, this paper examines the influence of ENGOs contingent on key structural characteristics of democratic systems. We develop the argument that presidential systems with a plurality electoral rule per se tend to provide more environmental public goods, which induces a smaller marginal impact of ENGOs. Conversely, parliamentary systems with a proportional representation electoral rule are likely to provide fewer environmental public goods, which allows for a larger marginal impact of ENGOs. We find robust empirical support for these hypotheses in analyses that focus on the ratification behavior of 75 democracies vis-à-vis 250 international environmental agreements in 1973–2002.

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This study examines the effect of the Great Moderation on the relationship between U.S. output growth and its volatility over the period 1947 to 2006. First, we consider the possible effects of structural change in the volatility process. In so doing, we employ GARCH-M and ARCH-M specifications of the process describing output growth rate and its volatility with and without a one-time structural break in volatility. Second, our data analyses and empirical results suggest no significant relationship between the output growth rate and its volatility, favoring the traditional wisdom of dichotomy in macroeconomics. Moreover, the evidence shows that the time-varying variance falls sharply or even disappears once we incorporate a one-time structural break in the unconditional variance of output starting 1982 or 1984. That is, the integrated GARCH effect proves spurious. Finally, a joint test of a trend change and a one-time shift in the volatility process finds that the one-time shift dominates.

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Trauma and severe head injuries are important issues because they are prevalent, because they occur predominantly in the young, and because variations in clinical management may matter. Trauma is the leading cause of death for those under age 40. The focus of this head injury study is to determine if variations in time from the scene of accident to a trauma center hospital makes a difference in patient outcomes.^ A trauma registry is maintained in the Houston-Galveston area and includes all patients admitted to any one of three trauma center hospitals with mild or severe head injuries. A study cohort, derived from the Registry, includes 254 severe head injury cases, for 1980, with a Glasgow Coma Score of 8 or less.^ Multiple influences relate to patient outcomes from severe head injury. Two primary variables and four confounding variables are identified, including time to emergency room, time to intubation, patient age, severity of injury, type of injury and mode of transport to the emergency room. Regression analysis, analysis of variance, and chi-square analysis were the principal statistical methods utilized.^ Analysis indicates that within an urban setting, with a four-hour time span, variations in time to emergency room do not provide any strong influence or predictive value to patient outcome. However, data are suggestive that at longer time periods there is a negative influence on outcomes. Age is influential only when the older group (55-64) is included. Mode of transport (helicopter or ambulance) did not indicate any significant difference in outcome.^ In a multivariate regression model, outcomes are influenced primarily by severity of injury and age which explain 36% (R('2)) of variance. Inclusion of time to emergency room, time to intubation, transport mode and type injury add only 4% (R('2)) additional contribution to explaining variation in patient outcome.^ The research concludes that since the group most at risk to head trauma is the young adult male involved in automobile/motorcycle accidents, more may be gained by modifying driving habits and other preventive measures. Continuous clinical and evaluative research are required to provide updated clinical wisdom in patient management and trauma treatment protocols. A National Institute of Trauma may be required to develop a national public policy and evaluate the many medical, behavioral and social changes required to cope with the country's number 3 killer and the primary killer of young adults.^

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Applying Theoretical Constructs to Address Medical Uncertainty Situations involving medical reasoning usually include some level of medical uncertainty. Despite the identification of shared decision-making (SDM) as an effective technique, it has been observed that the likelihood of physicians and patients engaging in shared decision making is lower in those situations where it is most needed; specifically in circumstances of medical uncertainty. Having identified shared decision making as an effective, yet often a neglected approach to resolving a lack of information exchange in situations involving medical uncertainty, the next step is to determine the way(s) in which SDM can be integrated and the supplemental processes that may facilitate its integration. SDM involves unique types of communication and relationships between patients and physicians. Therefore, it is necessary to further understand and incorporate human behavioral elements - in particular, behavioral intent - in order to successfully identify and realize the potential benefits of SDM. This paper discusses the background and potential interaction between the theories of shared decision-making, medical uncertainty, and behavioral intent. Identifying Shared Decision-Making Elements in Medical Encounters Dealing with Uncertainty A recent summary of the state of medical knowledge in the U.S. reported that nearly half (47%) of all treatments were of unknown effectiveness, and an additional 7% involved an uncertain tradeoff between benefits and harms. Shared decision-making (SDM) was identified as an effective technique for managing uncertainty when two or more parties were involved. In order to understand which of the elements of SDM are used most frequently and effectively, it is necessary to identify these key elements, and understand how these elements related to each other and the SDM process. The elements identified through the course of the present research were selected from basic principles of the SDM model and the “Data, Information, Knowledge, Wisdom” (DIKW) Hierarchy. The goal of this ethnographic research was to identify which common elements of shared decision-making patients are most often observed applying in the medical encounter. The results of the present study facilitated the understanding of which elements patients were more likely to exhibit during a primary care medical encounter, as well as determining variables of interest leading to more successful shared decision-making practices between patients and their physicians. Understanding Behavioral Intent to Participate in Shared Decision-Making in Medically Uncertain Situations Objective: This article describes the process undertaken to identify and validate behavioral and normative beliefs and behavioral intent of men between the ages of 45-70 with regard to participating in shared decision-making in medically uncertain situations. This article also discusses the preliminary results of the aforementioned processes and explores potential future uses of this information which may facilitate greater understanding, efficiency and effectiveness of doctor-patient consultations.Design: Qualitative Study using deductive content analysisSetting: Individual semi-structure patient interviews were conducted until data saturation was reached. Researchers read the transcripts and developed a list of codes.Subjects: 25 subjects drawn from the Philadelphia community.Measurements: Qualitative indicators were developed to measure respondents’ experiences and beliefs related to behavioral intent to participate in shared decision-making during medical uncertainty. Subjects were also asked to complete the Krantz Health Opinion Survey as a method of triangulation.Results: Several factors were repeatedly described by respondents as being essential to participate in shared decision-making in medical uncertainty. These factors included past experience with medical uncertainty, an individual’s personality, and the relationship between the patient and his physician.Conclusions: The findings of this study led to the development of a category framework that helped understand an individual’s needs and motivational factors in their intent to participate in shared decision-making. The three main categories include 1) an individual’s representation of medically uncertainty, 2) how the individual copes with medical uncertainty, and 3) the individual’s behavioral intent to seek information and participate in shared decision-making during times of medically uncertain situations.

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La comprensión historiográfica del lugar y de la significación del pensamiento rousseauniano en el desarrollo general de la Filosofía Moderna no deja de ser problemática: por un lado, debe considerarse la relación polémica de Rousseau con el llamado “Enciclopedismo", por otro, sus acuerdos y desacuerdos con el liberalismo político de la época. Sin embargo, la comprensión logotectónica de la cosa propia del saber “filo-sófico" pone en evidencia que con la posición histórica del pensamiento rousseauniano irrumpe un saber fundamental acerca de la libertad, que resulta de una importancia decisiva para el desenvolvimiento de la filosofía kantiana y de sus consecuencias.

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En el fragmento 5 del Protréptico, Aristóteles describe la filosofía como un tipo de investigación cuyo objetivo es la adquisición de la sabiduría, esto es, de la phrónesis. Paralelamente, en el segundo libro de la Metafísica, al hablar sobre la facilidad o dificultad de la investigación sobre la verdad, Aristóteles menciona el valor del aporte de sus predecesores. Allí, Aristóteles enfatiza que aun aquellos que han estudiado superficialmente la naturaleza de las cosas han hecho una contribución en esa búsqueda (II 1, 993b, 11-15). La lectura de este libro de la Metafísica a la luz de los fragmentos del Protréptico nos induce a pensar que Aristóteles concibe la filosofía como un quehacer cooperativo en el cual participa, de alguna manera, toda la tradición filosófica. Dado esto, el objetivo de este trabajo es indagar esta concepción de la filosofía, centrándonos principalmente en los fragmentos citados del Protréptico y el segundo libro de la Metafísica

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Hay ciertos puntos en los que la apropiación de Novalis de la tradición clásica resalta por algunos aspectos originales: frente a la angustia generada por la huida del tiempo, por ejemplo, las claras referencias de Novalis a la más reconocida tradición antigua superan, como sus referencias respecto de otros problemas, la recuperación de una imagen ilustrativa, o la cita, la apelación a la autoridad de la sabiduría de los antiguos, etc., y asumen el desafío de renovar su fuerza para un período distinto de la Historia y de explorar potencialidades novedosas de antiguas reflexiones. El experimento de este trabajo consiste en restablecer la conversación de Novalis con fuentes de la literatura clásica, fundamentalmente respecto del problema del envejecimiento, de la angustia del paso del tiempo, etc., y reflexionar en torno de las operaciones mediante las cuales esta herencia adopta en la poesía de Novalis un nuevo rumbo y nuevas potencialidades

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Los problemas y soluciones de las cuestiones homéricas generaron disquisiciones filológicas y gramaticales en los primeros siglos del imperio romano, pero fundamentalmente se buscó siempre el sentido profundo y la razón filosófica de cada figura de los poemas épicos. Heráclito, el alegorista, pretende alcanzar esa verdad que subyace en los relatos mitológicos siguiendo los pasos de un discurso epidíctico en el estilo de la oratoria clásica. Sus Alegorías de Homero son, en esta oportunidad, la fuente principal para acercarnos a la construcción textual de Apolo, Atenea, Hera y Zeus en el primer siglo de nuestra era, así como la Theologia de Cornutus y Sobre la vida y poesía de Homero atribuida a Plutarco

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Un rasgo inusual de la estrategia didáctica de Hesíodo en Trabajos y Días es la inclusión de su hermano Perses, como destinatario. Si existe o no una base histórica para la disputa financiera entre hermanos, tal como aparece representada en el poema, resulta menos interesante que la posición que tal situación (posiblemente ficcional) transmite. Por la figura del consejero, Hesíodo sostiene, naturalmente, una actitud diferente hacia un hermano, que la que quisiera si su aconsejado fuera un hijo, un futuro rey, o un estudiante -roles que son más típicos en las tradiciones didácticas de la literatura universal. Este artículo explora las tensiones, resonancias míticas y ambigüedades inherentes a la elección de la figura del hermano como recipiendario del consejo y concluye que esta particular configuración didáctica provee una más abierta-conclusiva y aceptable entrada a través de la cual cualquier audiencia puede interactuar con la tradición de sabiduría atesorada en el verso hesiódico.

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Un rasgo inusual de la estrategia didáctica de Hesíodo en Trabajos y Días es la inclusión de su hermano Perses, como destinatario. Si existe o no una base histórica para la disputa financiera entre hermanos, tal como aparece representada en el poema, resulta menos interesante que la posición que tal situación (posiblemente ficcional) transmite. Por la figura del consejero, Hesíodo sostiene, naturalmente, una actitud diferente hacia un hermano, que la que quisiera si su aconsejado fuera un hijo, un futuro rey, o un estudiante -roles que son más típicos en las tradiciones didácticas de la literatura universal. Este artículo explora las tensiones, resonancias míticas y ambigüedades inherentes a la elección de la figura del hermano como recipiendario del consejo y concluye que esta particular configuración didáctica provee una más abierta-conclusiva y aceptable entrada a través de la cual cualquier audiencia puede interactuar con la tradición de sabiduría atesorada en el verso hesiódico.