An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Is bucindolol BEST? (A Key Paper Evaluation)

Carvedilol, a non-selective β-adrenoceptor blocker with ancillary properties, and metoprolol and bisoprolol, selective β1-blockers without ancillary properties, have been shown to reduce mortality and morbidity in heart failure. In the Beta-blocker Evaluation of Survival Trial (BEST), bucindolol, a non-selective β-adrenoceptor blocker with different ancillary properties to carvedilol, did not reduce overall survival in heart failure. Possible explanations for this include: more Blacks being included in the trial, bucindolol being more ‘sympatholytic’ than the other β-blockers and more advanced heart failure in BEST. Another possible explanation is that bucindolol is stimulating cardiac β2-adrenoceptors to counter the effects of inhibiting cardiac β1-adrenoceptors. Bucindolol is not the best treatment and carvedilol, metoprolol and bisoprolol should be preferred in heart failure.

Securing the commercial internet: Lessons learned in developing a postgraduate course in information security management

This paper describes the inception, planning and first delivery of a security course as part of a postgraduate ecommerce program. The course is reviewed in terms of existing literature on security courses, the common body of knowledge established for security professionals and the job market into which students will graduate. The course described in this paper is a core subject for the e-commerce program. This program was established in 1999 and the first batch of students graduated in 2001. The program is offered at both postgraduate and undergraduate level. The work described here relates to the postgraduate offering. Students on this program are graduates of diverse disciplines and do not have a common e-commerce or business background.

Estimating Two-Stage Models for Genetic Influences on Alcohol, Tobacco or Drug Use Initiation and Dependence Vulnerability in Twin and Family Data

Genetic research on risk of alcohol, tobacco or drug dependence must make allowance for the partial overlap of risk-factors for initiation of use, and risk-factors for dependence or other outcomes in users. Except in the extreme cases where genetic and environmental risk-factors for initiation and dependence overlap completely or are uncorrelated, there is no consensus about how best to estimate the magnitude of genetic or environmental correlations between Initiation and Dependence in twin and family data. We explore by computer simulation the biases to estimates of genetic and environmental parameters caused by model misspecification when Initiation can only be defined as a binary variable. For plausible simulated parameter values, the two-stage genetic models that we consider yield estimates of genetic and environmental variances for Dependence that, although biased, are not very discrepant from the true values. However, estimates of genetic (or environmental) correlations between Initiation and Dependence may be seriously biased, and may differ markedly under different two-stage models. Such estimates may have little credibility unless external data favor selection of one particular model. These problems can be avoided if Initiation can be assessed as a multiple-category variable (e.g. never versus early-onset versus later onset user), with at least two categories measurable in users at risk for dependence. Under these conditions, under certain distributional assumptions., recovery of simulated genetic and environmental correlations becomes possible, Illustrative application of the model to Australian twin data on smoking confirmed substantial heritability of smoking persistence (42%) with minimal overlap with genetic influences on initiation.

Sexuality and interactions of monokaryotic and dikaryotic mycelia of Ganoderma boninense

Ganoderma boninense was determined to be heterothallic and tetrapolar with multiple alleles at both mating type loci. Mycelial interactions amongst siblings were assessed to determine if closely related isolates of G. boninense exhibited vegetative incompatibility. Interactions amongst monokaryotic and dikaryotic mycelia generally grouped into four categories ranging from strong antagonism to the absence of antagonism. Pairing of dikaryotic mycelia always resulted in antagonism and the degree of antagonism generally correlated with the relatedness of the isolates. Genetically different dikaryons therefore constitute discrete individuals. This is the first report of such interactions in G. boninense and these findings provide the basis for further studies on natural populations of this species.

The socio-religious beliefs and nature of the contemporary Vampire Subculture

The contemporary Vampire Subculture can be defined as a multi-faceted, socio-religious movement with its own distinct collective community and network of participants who share a similar belief system and customary lifestyle that reflect their concept of the vampire. The Vampire Subculture consists of individuals who profess to be 'real vampires', vampire communities of like-minded persons, 'blood-donors' who willingly allow vampires to partake of them, occult-based and mystical-orientated groups that appeal to their spirituality, the blood fetishists, and the live-action vampire role-players. In response, a Christian counter-movement of self-proclaimed 'vampire-slayers' has emerged that actively opposes the vampire subculture and its beliefs and practices. The socio-religious nature of the Vampire Subculture can be best described as a Segmented, Polycentric and Integrated Network of participants.

Cleaning symbioses from the parasites' perspective

Cleaning behaviour has generally been viewed from the cleaner or client's point of view. Few studies, however, have examined cleaning behaviour from the parasites' perspective, yet they are the equally-important third players in such associations. All three players are likely to have had their evolution affected by the association. As cleaner organisms are important predators of parasites, cleaners are likely to have an important effect on their prey. Little, however, is known of how parasites are affected by cleaning associations and the strategies that parasites use in response to cleaners. I examine here what parasites are involved in cleaning interactions, the effect cleaners have on parasites, the potential counter-adaptations that parasites have evolved against the predatory activities of cleaner organisms, the potential influence of cleaners on the life history traits of parasites, and other factors affected by cleaners. I have found that a wide range of ectoparasites from diverse habitats have been reported to interact with a wide range of cleaner organisms. Some of the life history traits of parasites are consistent with the idea that they are in response to cleaner predation. It is clear, however, that although many cleaning systems exist their ecological role is largely unexplored. This has likely been hindered by our lack of information on the parasites involved in cleaning interactions.

Affective and evaluative descriptors of pain in the McGill Pain Questionnaire: reduction and reorganization

Recent reports indicate that several descriptors of pain sensations in the McGill Pain Questionnaire (MPQ) are difficult to classify within MPQ sensory subcategories because of incomprehension, underuse, or ambiguity of usage. Adopting the same methodology of recent studies, the present investigation focused on the affective and evaluative subcategories of the MPQ. A decision rule revealed that only 6 of 18 words met criteria for the affective category and 5 of 11 words met criteria for the evaluative category, thus warranting a reduced list of words in these categories. This reduction, however, led to negligible loss of information transmitted. Despite notable changes in classification, the intensity ratings of the retained words correlated very highly with those originally reported for the MPQ. In conclusion, although the intensity ratings of MPQ affective and evaluative descriptors need no revision, selective reduction and reorganization of these descriptors can enhance the efficiency of this approach to pain assessment. [copy ] 2001 by the American Pain Society

Whither our Art? Clinical Wisdom & Evidence-based Medicine

The relationship between evidence-based medicine (EBM) and clinical judgement is the subject of conceptual and practical dispute. For example, EBM and clinical guidelines are seen to increasingly dominate medical decision-making at the expense of other, human elements, and to threaten the art of medicine. Clinical wisdom always remains open to question. We want to know why particular beliefs are held, and the epistemological status of claims based in wisdom or experience. The paper critically appraises a number of claims and distinctions, and attempts to clarify the connections between EBM, clinical experience and judgement, and the objective and evaluative categories of medicine. I conclude that to demystify clinical wisdom is not to devalue it. EBM ought not be conceived as needing to be limited or balanced by clinical wisdom, since if its language is translatable into terms comprehensible and applicable to individuals, it helps constitute clinical wisdom. Failure to appreciate this constitutive relation will help perpetuate medical paternalism and delay the adoption of properly evidence-based practice, which would be both unethical and unwise.

Effect of periparturient diseases accompanied by excessive vulval discharge and weaning to mating interval on sow reproductive performance

Objective To evaluate the effect of periparturient disease accompanied by vulval discharge, and weaning-to-mating intervals, on sow fertility and litter size. Design Reproductive data were collected and analysed from 19 Hungarian swine herds over a 4 year period. Conception rates, farrowing rates and litter sizes of sows with periparturient disease accompanied by vulval discharge were used to evaluate the relationship between duration of vulval discharge and subsequent fertility and litter size. The possibility of interactions between weaning-to-mating intervals and duration of vulval discharges was investigated to determine if there was any effect on subsequent fertility and litter size. Results and conclusions Both parity 1 and parity 2 to 8 sows having had periparturient disease accompanied by vulval discharge in excess of 6 days duration had significantly (P < 0.001) lower subsequent fertility (conception, farrowing and adjusted farrowing rates) compared with sows of similar parity where the duration of vulval discharge was < 4 or 4 to 6 days. There was no difference in fertility rates between sows, in both parity categories, with vulval discharge for < 4 days compared with 4 to 6 days. A duration of vulval discharge in excess of 6 days in parity 1 sows significantly reduced litter size (total born and live-born) in subsequent farrowings, but not in parity 2 to 8 sows. There was no interaction between the duration of vulval discharge and post-weaning to mating intervals. However sows with weaning to mating intervals between 7 and 10 days had smaller (P < 0.001) subsequent litter sizes compared with 3 to 6 or 11 to 14 day intervals. It was concluded that the duration of vulval discharge in excess of 6 days was an indication of a severe persistent endometritis adversely affecting fertility of sows.

Outcomes after trans-tibial amputation: The relationship between quiet stance ability, strength of the hip abductor muscles and gait

Background and Purpose Previous research regarding the symmetry of trans-tibial amputees has examined weight distribution and various gait parameters between prosthetic and sound limbs. However, to date, no known research has determined if asymmetry is present in the strength of the hip abductor muscles or if correlations exist between these categories of symmetry. The purpose of the present study was, therefore, to document asymmetry present in stance, strength and gait measures, and to determine the relationship between these variables. Method Twenty-three elderly, unilateral trans-tibial amputees stood on two adjacent forceplates whilst the weight distribution and standard deviation (SD) of the anterior-posterior and the medio-lateral centre of pressure excursion (COPE) under each limb was recorded during four 40 s trials: quiet stance (QS), with eyes open and eyes closed; and even stance (ES), with eyes open and eyes closed. Gait measures (velocity, cadence, step and stride lengths, stance:swing ratio and period of double support) over 10 m of fast, yet safe walking and measures of the strength of hip abductor muscles were also obtained by use of a stride analyser and a dynamometer, respectively. Results No significant differences were found between QS and ES measures. However, significantly more weight was taken on the sound limb than on the amputated limb. Notably, more anterior-posterior movement occurred under the sound limb than the amputated limb, with this becoming more apparent with the eyes closed. Movement in the medio-lateral direction was found to be the same between sides. No differences in muscle strength or gait measures between limbs were demonstrated. However. strong hip abductor muscles were correlated with increased weight-bearing on the amputated limb, improved gait parameters and reduced medio-lateral COPE under the amputated limb. Conclusions This research confirms the asymmetrical nature of amputee stance and demonstrates symmetry of strength and gait measures between limbs. The correlations between hip abductor muscle strength, weight distribution and gait measures illustrates the importance of pre- and postoperative training of these muscles. Copyright © 2002 Whurr Publishers Ltd.

Environmental factors associated with adults' participation in physical activity : A review

Background: Promoting physical activity is a public health priority, and changes in the environmental Contexts of adults' activity choices are believed to be crucial. However, of the factors associated with physical activity, environmental influences are among the least understood. Method: Using journal scans and computerized literature database searches, we identified 19 quantitative studies that assessed the relationships With physical activity behavior of perceived and objectively determined physical environment attributes. Findings were categorized into those examining five categories: accessibility of facilities, opportunities for activity, weather, safety, and aesthetic attributes. Results: Accessibility, opportunities, and aesthetic attributes had significant associations with physical activity, Weather and safety showed less-strong relationships. Where Studies pooled different categories to create composite variables, the associations were less likely to be statistically significant. Conclusions: Physical environment factors have consistent associations with physical activity behavior. Further development of ecologic and environmental models, together with behavior-specific and context-specific measurement strategies, should help in further understanding of these associations. Prospective Studies are required to identify possible causal relationships.

Eating ethically: Emmanuel Levinas and Simone Weil (Exploring the ethical realms of anorexia and so-called states of grace)

Emmanuel Levinas's work on the ethical responsibility of the face-to-face relation offers an illuminating context or clearing within which we might better appreciate the work of Simone Weil. Levinas's subjectivity of the hostage, the one who is responsible for the other before being responsible for the self, provides us with a way of re-encountering the categories of gravity and grace invoked in Weil's original account. In this paper I explore the terrain between these thinkers by raising the question of eating as, in part, an ethical act. Weil's conception of grace refers to the state of decreation in which the utter humility of the self moves toward a kind of disintegration and weightlessness. this weightlessness, which Weil contrasts to the gravity of terrestrial weight, might be thought of in terms of the subject's fundamental responsibility for the other, especially in terms of the injunction Thou shalt neither kill nor take the food of thy neighbour. Taking the place of the other, taking the food from the mouth of the other, is the ethical dilemma facing the subject as hostage and an elaboration of this situation may provide us with steps toward a radical questioning of anorexia as - at least in part - an ethical rather than purely medical condition.

Conceptual modelling and ontology: Possibilities and pitfalls

Conceptual modelling is an activity undertaken during information systems development work to build a representation of selected semantics about some real-world domain. Ontological theories have been developed to account for the structure and behavior of the real world in general. In this paper, I discuss why ontological theories can be used to inform conceptual modelling research, practice, and pedagogy. I provide examples from my research to illustrate how a particular ontological theory has enabled me to improve my understanding of certain conceptual modelling practices and grammars. I describe, also, how some colleagues and I have used this theory to generate several counter-intuitive, sometimes surprising predictions about widely advocated conceptual modelling practices - predictions that subsequently were supported in empirical research we undertook. Finally, I discuss several possibilities and pitfalls I perceived to be associated with our using ontological theories to underpin research on conceptual modelling.

Active and passive shoulder range of motion in healthy older people

This study was conducted to determine the effect of increasing age on four shoulder movements and to explore the need for normative data for shoulder range of motion (ROM) in people aged 50 years and older. Forty-one participants were conveniently recruited according to four age categories: 50-59 years, 60-69 years, 70-79 years and 80 years and over. Goniometric measurement of bilateral active and passive ROM for flexion, abduction, internal rotation and external rotation was analysed using paired sample t-tests and compared with the norms of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons (AAOS) using one sample t-tests. Passive ROM was greater than active ROM for all movements (p