Estimation of infection rate in epidemic models with multiple populations

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Matemática e Aplicações Especialização em Actuariado, Estatística e Investigação Operacional

Heart rate responses to a muscarinic agonist in rats with experimentally induced acute and subacute chagasic myocarditis

We administered arecoline to rats, with experimentally induced chagasic myocarditis, in order to study the sinus node sensitivity to a muscarinic agonist. Sixteen month old rats were inoculated with 200,000 T. cruzi parasites ("Y" strain). Between days 18 and 21 (acute stage), 8 infected rats and 8 age-matched controls received intravenous arecoline as a bolus injection at the following doses: 5.0, 10.0, 20.0, 40.0, and 80.0 mug/kg. Heart rate was recorded before, during and after each dose of arecoline. The remaining 8 infected animals and 8 controls were subjected to the same experimental procedure during the subacute stage, i.e., days 60 to 70 after inoculation. The baseline heart rate, of the animals studied during the acute stage (349 ± 68 bpm, mean ± SD), was higher than that of the controls (250 ± 50 bpm, p < 0.005). The heart rate changes were expressed as percentage changes over baseline values. A dose-response curve was constructed for each group of animals. Log scales were used to plot the systematically doubled doses of arecoline and the induced-heart rate changes. The slope of the regression line for the acutely infected animals (r = - 0.99, b =1.78) was not different from that for the control animals (r = - 0.97, b = 1.61). The infected animals studied during the subacute stage (r = - 0.99, b = 1.81) were also not different from the age-matched controls (r = - 0.99, b = 1.26, NS). Consequently, our results show no pharmacological evidence of postjunctional hypersensitivity to the muscarinic agonist arecoline. Therefore, these results indirectly suggest that the postganglionic parasympathetic innervation, of the sinus node of rats with autopsy proved chagasic myocarditis, is not irreversibly damaged by Trypanosoma cruzi.

The association between serum potassium at hospital admission and the case-fatality rate of leptospirosis in men

Severe leptospirosis affects predominantly males and presents a high susceptibility to hypokalemic acute renal failure. As hypokalemia and hyperkalemia induce severe complications, it is important to evaluate if the initial serum potassium is an independent risk factor for death in leptospirosis. The medical records of 1016 patients hospitalized with the diagnosis of leptospirosis were reviewed. The analysis was restricted to 442, according to the following criteria: male, 18 years or older, information about death or hospital discharge and recorded values of serum potassium, serum creatinine and duration of symptoms at admission. Potassium values lower than 3.5 mEq/L (hypoK), 3.5-5 mEq/L (normoK) and above 5 mEq/L (hyperK) were detected in 180, 245 and 17 patients, respectively. The death rate increased with serum potassium: 11.1% in the hypoK, 14.7% in the normoK and 47.1% in the hyperK group (p = 0.002). In a logistic regression model (normoK as referent), including age, creatinine and duration of symptoms, hypoK was not associated with increased death rate (odds ratio (OR) = 0.80; p > 0.1). On the other hand, hyperK showed a significant association with increased risk of death (OR = 3.95, p = 0.021). In conclusion, in this sample of men with leptospirosis initial serum potassium was positively and independently correlated with the risk of in-hospital death.

Comparative study of the in-hospital case-fatality rate of leptospirosis between pediatric and adult patients of different age groups

The main objective was to compare the in-hospital case-fatality rate of leptospirosis between pediatric (< 19 years) and adult (>19 years) patients, taking into account gender, renal function, duration of symptoms and jaundice. Medical records of 1016 patients were reviewed. Comparative analysis was restricted to 840 patients (100 pediatric, 740 adults) with recorded information on the variables included in the analysis. Among these patients 81.7% were male and 91.5% were icteric. The case-fatality rate of leptospirosis was 14.4%. The odds of death adjusted for gender, jaundice, duration of symptoms, serum urea and serum creatinine were almost four times higher for the adult than for the pediatric group (odds ratio (OR) = 3.94; 95% confidence interval = 1.19-13.03, p = 0.029). Among adults, increased age was also significantly and independently associated with increased risk of death (p < 0.01). Older patients were also more often treated by dialysis. In conclusion, the data suggest that the in-hospital case fatality rate of leptospirosis is higher for adults than for children and adolescents, even after taking into account the effects of several potential risk factors of death. Among adults, older age was also strongly and independently associated with higher risk of death.

The frequency rate of Toxocara species contamination in soil samples from public yards in a urban area "Payathai", Bangkok, Thailand

Toxocara species are most common roundworms of Canidae and Felidae. Human toxocariasis develops by ingesting of embryonated eggs in contaminated soil. There is no previous report of Toxocara contamination in the soil samples from the public areas in Bangkok. For this reason our study have been carried out to examine the frequency of Toxocara eggs in public yards in Bangkok, Thailand. A total of 175 sand and clay samples were collected and examined for parasite eggs. According to this study, Toxocara eggs were detected from 10 (5.71%) of 175 soil samples. The high rate of contamination in this study implies the importance of the control of this possible zoonotic disease: control of abandon of dogs and cats, is still necessary.

Toxoplasma-IgM and IgG-avidity in single samples from areas with a high infection rate can determine the risk of mother-to-child transmission

Anti-Toxoplasma IgG-avidity was determined in 168 serum samples from IgG- and IgM-positive pregnant women at various times during pregnancy, in order to evaluate the predictive value for risk of mother-to-child transmission in a single sample, taking the limitations of conventional serology into account. The neonatal IgM was considered the serologic marker of transmission. Fluorometric tests for IgG, IgM (immunocapture) and IgG-avidity were performed. Fifty-one of the 128 pregnant women tested gave birth in the hospital and neonatal IgM was obtained. The results showed 32 (62.75%) pregnant women having high avidity, IgM indexes between 0.6 and 2.4, and no infected newborn. Nineteen (37.25%) had low or inconclusive avidity, IgM indexes between 0.6 and 11.9, and five infected newborns and one stillbirth. In two infected newborns and the stillbirth maternal IgM indexes were low and in one infected newborn the only maternal parameter that suggested fetal risk was IgG-avidity. In the present study, IgG-avidity performed in single samples from positive IgM pregnant women helped to determine the risk of transmission at any time during pregnancy, especially when the indexes of the two tests were analysed with respect to gestational age. This model may be less expensive in developing countries where there is a high prevalence of infection than the follow-up of susceptible mothers until childbirth with monthly serology, and it creates a new perspective for the diagnosis of congenital toxoplasmosis.

Distribuição de Contaminantes Orgânicos em Solos Calcários – Influência dos minerais de Argila

O solo é um recurso multifuncional e vital para a humanidade, apresentando funções ecológicas, técnico-industriais, socioeconómicas e culturais, estabelecendo um vasto capital natural insubstituível. Face à sua taxa de degradação potencialmente rápida que, devido ao crescente desenvolvimento económico e incremento da população mundial, tem vindo a aumentar nas últimas décadas, o solo é, atualmente, um recurso finito e limitado. Devido a esta problemática, o presente documento visa abordar a progressiva preocupação sobre as questões geoambientais e toda a investigação que as envolvem, avaliando o modo como os contaminantes se dispersam pelo solo nas diferentes fases do mesmo (fases sólida, líquida e gasosa). A parte experimental centrou-se na análise da adsorção do benzeno, a partir da determinação das isotérmicas de adsorção. Para tal, foram previamente preparados reatores com calcário, sendo alguns deles previamente contaminados com um biocombustível, biodiesel, a uma concentração constante. Este processo foi monitorizado com base na evolução temporal da concentração na fase gasosa, através da cromatografia gasosa. De entre os objetivos, procurou-se analisar a distribuição dos contaminantes pelas fases constituintes do solo, ajustar os dados experimentais obtidos os modelos matemáticos de Langmuir, Freundlich e Polinomial, e verificar e discutir as soluções mais adequadas.

Dynamic stability metrics for the container loading problem

The Container Loading Problem (CLP) literature has traditionally evaluated the dynamic stability of cargo by applying two metrics to box arrangements: the mean number of boxes supporting the items excluding those placed directly on the floor (M1) and the percentage of boxes with insufficient lateral support (M2). However, these metrics, that aim to be proxies for cargo stability during transportation, fail to translate real-world cargo conditions of dynamic stability. In this paper two new performance indicators are proposed to evaluate the dynamic stability of cargo arrangements: the number of fallen boxes (NFB) and the number of boxes within the Damage Boundary Curve fragility test (NB_DBC). Using 1500 solutions for well-known problem instances found in the literature, these new performance indicators are evaluated using a physics simulation tool (StableCargo), replacing the real-world transportation by a truck with a simulation of the dynamic behaviour of container loading arrangements. Two new dynamic stability metrics that can be integrated within any container loading algorithm are also proposed. The metrics are analytical models of the proposed stability performance indicators, computed by multiple linear regression. Pearson’s r correlation coefficient was used as an evaluation parameter for the performance of the models. The extensive computational results show that the proposed metrics are better proxies for dynamic stability in the CLP than the previous widely used metrics.

Characterization of an antioxidant surfactant-free topical formulation containing Castanea sativa leaf extract

Context: Inclusion of antioxidants in topical formulations can contribute to minimize oxidative stress in the skin, which has been associated with photoaging, several dermatosis and cancer. Objective: A Castanea sativa leaf extract with established antioxidant activity was incorporated into a semisolid surfactant-free formulation. The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive characterization of this formulation. Materials and methods: Physical, microbiological and functional stability were evaluated during 6 months storage at 20 °C and 40 °C. Microstructure elucidation (cryo-SEM), in vitro release and in vivo moisturizing effect (Corneometer® CM 825) were also assessed. Results and discussion: Minor changes were observed in the textural and rheological properties of the formulation when stored at 20 °C for 6 months and the antioxidant activity of the plant extract remained constant throughout the storage period. Microbiological quality was confirmed at the end of the study. Under accelerated conditions, higher modifications of the evaluated parameters were observed. Cryo-SEM analysis revealed the presence of oil droplets dispersed into a gelified external phase. The release rate of the antioxidant compounds (610 ± 70 µgh−0.5) followed Higuchi model. A significant in vivo moisturizing effect was demonstrated, that lasted at least 4 h after product’s application. Conclusion: The physical, functional and microbiological stability of the antioxidant formulation was established. Specific storage conditions should be recommended considering the influence of temperature on the stability. A skin hydration effect and good skin tolerance were also found which suggests that this preparation can be useful in the prevention or treatment of oxidative stress-mediated dysfunctions.

Remediação Ambiental

A agricultura é uma das atividades mais antigas realizadas pelo Homem, sendo de grande importância para a obtenção tanto de bens alimentares como de bens para outros fins. No entanto desde o início constatou-se que as culturas eram afetadas por pragas e doenças que levavam à perda das colheitas. Este motivo deu origem à necessidade de nesses termos surgiu a aplicação de substâncias com o objetivo de proteger as colheitas. Os pesticidas são substâncias naturais ou sintéticas, aplicadas com o objetivo de proteger as plantas eliminando pragas e doenças. Para além da potencial toxicidade destas substâncias, em alguns casos a sua degradação no meio ambiente por microrganismos, hidrólise, radiação solar, etc. dá origem a produtos de degradação tanto ou mais tóxicos que os próprios pesticidas. A utilização deste tipo de substâncias acarreta problemas, visto a sua aplicação ser feita de forma a compensar perdas que ocorrem por meio de degradação, lixiviação, entre outros processos. Este tipo de aplicação leva a que haja contaminação do meio ambiente por parte dos pesticidas, pondo em risco tanto a saúde humana como os restantes seres vivos. A utilização de ciclodextrinas no encapsulamento destes compostos tem como objetivo aumentar a estabilidade do composto e promover a sua libertação de forma controlada. No presente trabalho pretende-se efetuar um estudo comparativo sobre a fotodegradação do herbicida terbutilazina e do fungicida pirimetanil livres e quando encapsulados com 2- hidroxipropil-β- ciclodextrina. De forma a quantificar os pesticidas ao longo do estudo foi utilizado o método analítico de HPLC de fase reversa. Os resultados permitiram constatar que a terbutilazina é fotoquimicamente estável, nas condições aplicadas, visto que ao fim de 75 dias de as soluções de pesticida livre em água desionizada e em água do rio apresentarem ainda 98% do pesticida inicial e as soluções de pesticida encapsulado em água desionizada e em água do rio apresentarem ainda 98% do pesticida inicial. Neste caso particular não foi possível, no intervalo de tempo considerado, avaliar a influência do encapsulamento no processo de fotodegradação da terbutilazina. Dada a baixa fotodegradação observada optou-se pela adição de peróxido de hidrogénio às soluções de controlo e 35 mM de HP-β-CD e acetona às soluções de 0 mM e 17,5 mM de HP-β-CD, para tentar promover a degradação do pesticida. Através dos resultados obtidos constatou-se que particularmente para as soluções onde foi adicionada acetona houve um aumento da velocidade de degradação no entanto esta ainda ocorria de forma lenta e muito semelhante quer para o pesticida livre quer para o encapsulado. Relativamente ao estudo da fotodegradação do pirimetanil verificou-se que ao fim de 4 dias de irradiação as soluções de pesticida livre apresentavam já alguma degradação do pesticida e tendo o período de irradiação uma duração de 53 dias foi possível para este pesticida determinar os parâmetros cinéticos em algumas das soluções. Quanto as soluções de água desionizada e água do rio com pirimetanil livre ambas apresentaram degradação do pesticida verificando-se uma cinética de reação de 1ª ordem com constantes de 0,0018 dias-1 e de 0,0060 dias-1 respetivamente. Para a solução de água desionizada com pirimetanil encapsulado não foi detetada degradação do pesticida, já para a solução com pirimetanil encapsulado em água do rio verificou-se a existência de degradação que correspondeu a uma cinética de degradação de 1ª ordem com uma constante de 0,0013 dias-1. Através dos resultados obtidos pode-se concluir que o encapsulamento do pirimetanil com 2-hidroxipropil-β-ciclodextrina é vantajoso visto diminuir a quantidade de pesticida utilizado e aumentar a eficácia do controlo das pragas.

HTLV-1/2 seroprevalence and coinfection rate in Brazilian first-time blood donors: an 11-year follow-up

The seroprevalence and geographic distribution of HTLV-1/2 among blood donors are extremely important to transfusion services. We evaluated the seroprevalence of HTLV-1/2 infection among first-time blood donor candidates in Ribeirão Preto city and region. From January 2000 to December 2010, 1,038,489 blood donations were obtained and 301,470 were first-time blood donations. All samples were screened with serological tests for HTLV-1/2 using enzyme immunoassay (EIA). In addition, the frequency of coinfection with hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), Chagas disease (CD) and syphilis was also determined. In-house PCR was used as confirmatory test for HTLV-1/2. A total of 296 (0.1%) first-time donors were serologically reactive for HTLV-1/2. Confirmatory PCR of 63 samples showed that 28 were HTLV-1 positive, 13 HTLV-2 positive, 19 negative and three indeterminate. Regarding HTLV coinfection rates, the most prevalent was with HBV (51.3%) and HCV (35.9%), but coinfection with HIV, CD and syphilis was also detected. The real number of HTLV-infected individual and coinfection rate in the population is underestimated and epidemiological studies like ours are very informative.

Muscarinic antibodies and heart rate responses to dynamic exercise and to the Valsalva maneuver in chronic chagasic patients

We have studied the cardiac chronotropic responses to the Valsalva maneuver and to dynamic exercise of twenty chronic chagasic patients with normal left ventricular function and no segmental wall abnormalities by two-dimensional echocardiogram. The absolute increase in heart rate of the patients (Δ = 21.5 ± 10 bpm, M±SD) during the maneuver was significantly diminished when compared to controls (Δ = 31.30 ± 70, M±SD, p = 0.03). The minimum heart rate (58.24 ± 8.90 vs. 62.80 ± 10, p = 0.68) and the absolute decrease in heart rate at the end of the maneuver (Δ = 38.30 ± 13 vs. Δ = 31.47 ± 17, p = 0.10) were not different from controls. The initial heart rate acceleration during dynamic exercise (Δ = 12 ± 7.55 vs. Δ = 19 ± 7.27, M±SD, p = 0.01) was also diminished, but the heart rate recovery during the first ten seconds was more prominent in the sero-positive patients (Median: 14, Interquartile range: (9.75-17.50 vs. 5(0-8.75, p = 0.001). The serum levels of muscarinic cardiac auto-antibodies were significantly higher in the chagasic patients (Median: 34.58, Interquartile Range: 17-46.5, Optical Density) than in controls (Median: 0, Interquartile Range: 0-22.25, p = 0.001) and correlated significantly and directly (r = 0.68, p = 0.002) with early heart rate recovery during dynamic exercise. The results of this investigation indirectly suggest that, the cardiac muscarinic auto-antibodies may have positive agonist effects on parasympathetic heart rate control of chagasic patients.