A fedezetlen bankközi forintpiac hálózati dinamikájának vizsgálata a likviditási válság előtt és után (Examination of the network dynamics of the uncovered interbank forint markel before the liquidity crisis and after)

A cikkben a magyar fedezetlen bankközi forintpiac hálózatának időbeli alakulását vizsgáljuk 2002 decemberétől 2009 márciusáig. Bemutatjuk a piac általános jellemzőit (forgalom, kamatláb, koncentráció stb.) és az alapvető hálózati mutatókat. Azt tapasztaljuk, hogy az időszak első felében ezek a jellemzők lényegében stabilak voltak. 2006-2007-től kezdve azonban a mutatók egy része kezdett jelentősen megváltozni: a hitelfelvevők koncentrációja nőtt, az átlagos közelség és az átlagos fokszám csökkent, továbbá a hálózat magjának mérete is csökkent. Ezek a jelek arra utalhatnak, hogy a bankok már a válság kitörése előtt érzékelték a növekvő hitelkockázatot, és egyre inkább megválogatták, hogy kinek adnak hitelt. Figyelemre méltó, hogy mindeközben az általános piaci mutatók (forgalom, kamatláb, illetve ezek volatilitása) semmiféle változásra utaló jelet nem tükröztek egészen 2008 októberéig, de ekkor hirtelen minden mutatóban egyértelművé vált a rezsimváltás. Végül részletesen elemezzük az egyes szereplők viselkedését, és megmutatjuk, hogy válságban az egyes szerepek drasztikusan megváltoztak (például forrásokból nyelők lettek, és fordítva). / === / The article examines the changes in the network of Hungary's uncovered interbank forint market over the period Decembcr 2000 to March 2009. It presents the general features of the market (volume, interest rates, concentration etc.) and its basic network. It is found that the features were largely stable in the first half of the period, but some of the indicators began to change significantly in 2006-7: the concentration of borrowers incrcased, average distance and average degree declined, as did the size of the core of the network. These signs pointed to the fact that the banks had sensed an increase in credit risk even before the crisis broke and were becoming increasingly choosy selective in their lending. Meanwhile, however. there aerc no indications of change in the general market indicators (volume, interest rates, or volatility of these) right up to October 2008, when the change of regime was clear in all indicators. Finally, the authors analyse in detail the behaviour of each participant and show that thc roles of some altered drastically with the crisis (e.g. sources became consumers and vice versa).

Fogyasztói magatartás a hazai utazási szolgáltatások piacán - a hibrid vásárlói magatartás vizsgálata (Consumer behaviour on market of the Hungarian travel services – Examination of hybrid consumption)

A szerzők kutatási projektjükben a hazai lakosság utazással kapcsolatos fogyasztási, vásárlási magatartását vizsgálták, különös tekintettel a hibrid fogyasztói viselkedés alakulására. A kutatás a rendszeresen utazó vagy az utazás iránt érdeklődő csoportra terjedt ki. Az első, kvalitatív fázisban a nyaralás értelmezését, a keresés és döntés kritériumait tárták fel, majd következő lépésben statisztikai elemzésekkel vizsgálták a fogyasztói magatartás jellemzőit. Indexszámítás alapján besorolták a válaszadókat a hibrid fogyasztás kategóriáiba. Besorolásuk szerint a megtakarításorientált olcsón vásárlók és a komfortorientált márkavásárlók jelentik a legnagyobb csoportokat, az előbbi 31,9%-ot, az utóbbi 29,6%-ot képviselve a mintában. A megtakarítás-orientált márkavásárlók 21%-ot, a komfortorientált olcsón vásárlók 17,5%-ot tesznek ki. Elemzésük igazolta, hogy a hibrid vásárlói magatartás elméleti megközelítése jól használható a hazai utazási piac elemzésekor. ________ Recent study examines travelling behaviour in Hungary with special emphasis on hybrid consumption. Using qualitative and quantitative analysis the study explore the decision making process related to hybrid consumption in travel services. Based on indexes the authors classified respondents into categories of hybrid consumption. According to their classification the main groups are savings-oriented budget shoppersand comfort-oriented brand shoppers, representing 31,9% and 29,6% share in the total sample, accordingly. Based on their analysis the approach of hybrid consumption proved to be useful to analyse consumer behaviour in travel services.

An examination of the relationship of governance structure and performance: Evidence from banking companies in Bangladesh

Corporate governance has become increasingly important in developed and developing countries just after a series of corporate scandals and failures in a number of countries. Corporate governance structure is often viewed as a means of corporate success despite prior studies reveal mixed, somewhere conflicting and ambiguous, and somewhere no relationship between governance structure and performance. This study empirically investigates the relationship between corporate governance mechanisms and financial performance of listed banking companies in Bangladesh by using two multiple regression models. The study reveals that a good number of companies do not comply with the regulatory requirements indicating remarkable shortfall in corporate governance practice. The companies are run by the professional managers having no duality and no ownership interest for which they are compensated by high remuneration to curb agency conflict. Apart from some inconsistent relationship between some corporate variables, the corporate governance mechanisms do not appear to have significant relationship with financial performances. The findings reveal an insignificant negative impact or somewhere no impact of independent directors and non-independent non-executive directors on the level of performance that strongly support the concept that the managers are essentially worthy of trust and earn returns for the owners as claimed by stewardship theory. The study provides support for the view that while much emphasis on corporate governance mechanisms is necessary to safeguard the interest of stakeholders; corporate governance on its own, as a set of codes or standards for corporate conformance, cannot make a company successful. Companies need to balance corporate governance mechanisms with performance by adopting strategic decision and risk management with the efficient utilization of the organization’s resources.

Examination of the role of Mycoplasma bovis in bovine pneumonia and a mathematical model for its evaluation

The authors screened 34 large cattle herds for the presence of Mycoplasma bovis infection by examining slaughtered cattle for macroscopic lung lesions, by culturing M. bovis from lung lesions and at the same time by testing sera for the presence of antibodies against M. bovis. Among the 595 cattle examined, 33.9% had pneumonic lesions, mycoplasmas were isolated from 59.9% of pneumonic lung samples, and 10.9% of sera from those animals contained antibodies to M.bovis. In 25.2% of the cases M. bovis was isolated from lungs with no macroscopic lesions. The proportion of seropositive herds was 64.7%. The average seropositivity rate of individuals was 11.3% but in certain herds it exceeded 50%. A probability model was developed for examining the relationship among the occurrence of pneumonia, the isolation of M. bovis from the lungs and the presence of M. bovis specific antibodies in sera.

Kultúraközi szolgáltatásélmények vizsgálata a megalapozott elmélet módszerével (Examination of the intercultural service experiences with grounded theory method)

A cikk fókuszában az interkulturális szolgáltatással való találkozás áll. A téma jelentősége kétségen kívül áll, hiszen a szolgáltatások egyre növekvő térhódítása, valamint a globalizáció terjedése fontossá teszi annak ismeretét, hogy a különböző nemzeti kultúrából érkező szolgáltató és fogyasztó számára hogyan érhető el a legfőbb cél, az elégedettség. A szerzők jelen kutatásukban annak megértését helyezték a középpontba, hogy melyek azok a tényezők, amelyek befolyásolják a felek erőfeszítéseit a találkozás során fellépő problémák megoldásában. Kutatásuk során mélyinterjúkat folytattak mind a szolgáltatói, mind a fogyasztói oldallal, majd a megalapozott elmélet (grounded theory) konstruktivista irányzatának segítségével elemezték ezen interjúkat, és azonosították azokat a tényezőket, amelyek fontossá válhatnak egy kultúraközi szolgáltatásélmény során. A kutatás eredményei rámutatnak, hogy melyek azok a kommunikációs és kulturális korlátok, amelyek problémát okozhatnak, s hogy az e problémák megoldására tett erőfeszítések visszavezethetők az interakció résztvevőinek személyes jellemzőire, tapasztalataira, kulturális nyitottságára és ismereteire. A kutatás eredményeinek egyik fontos menedzseri következtetése, hogy a szállodákban a probléma jelentősége ellenére nem helyeznek elegendő hangsúlyt a kommunikációs és kulturális korlátok leküzdésére irányuló képzésekre, tréningekre. _____ This paper presents an attempt to analyse the possible solutions to problems that can occur during intercultural service encounters (ICSE). Using grounded theory the authors provide a theoretical framework that identifies the factors that lead to ICSE barriers. Based on in-depth interviews with service providers and clients they have defined the relevant characteristics that influence intercultural competence. Intercultural competence with communication and cultural differences lead to problems during ICSE that can be handled by both parties: the service provider and the client, as well. An important finding is that service companies should provide adequate training that concentrates not only on the cultural knowledge but it should create capability in understanding and adapting to cultural differences.

An examination of attitude toward change as a predictor of policy/program implementation

Policy/program implementation, e.g., the process of fulfilling policy/program directives, is fundamentally tied to change. Implementation studies have examined the process, identifying many critical organizational variables although individuals perform the activities.^ Many of the studies are predicated on the rational, goal oriented model of organizations and examine implementation, presenting only the goal-oriented view. Organizational change and its resistance, however, are not fully explained by the rational model of organizations. There are other schools of thought providing different views of organizations from which explanation may emerge. Bolman and Deal (1984, 1991a, 1994) provide a different perspective for examining organizations Bolman and Deal argue organizations should be viewed through four different frames or lenses. Framing and reframing organizational action captures the complexity of action and provides better understanding of organizational processes. Understanding of implementation of policies/programs also will benefit from the use of the four-frame approach.^ The goal of this research is to provide a better understanding of the implementation process by examining individual attitudes toward change, the dependent variable of this research, and studying the relationship between the dependent variable and frame. The research was conducted in two phases. In Phase One, a survey was sent to 306 school administrators and teachers in magnet programs in Dade County, Florida. The survey instrument was composed of 55 questions including six from Bolman and Deal's Leadership Orientation Survey (1988) and 38 questions about organizational change. In Phase Two, more in-depth analysis of four school was conducted, to further explore the relationship between frame and attitude toward change.^ The results revealed that frame was a factor in explaining differences in personal Attitude Toward Change and Comfort Level with Change. Individuals using the symbolic frame had more positive attitudes toward change and were also more comfortable with change. The results of Phase Two of the research partially supported this finding in that the most fully implemented program was the product of an administrator who had chosen the symbolic frame. ^

An examination of parental opinions regarding the inclusion of disabled students in regular education classes

This study investigated the opinions regarding inclusion of parents of both disabled and nondisabled elementary children from a large suburban county. An opinion survey combining Wilczenski's Attitudes Toward Inclusive Education Scale with additional questions was distributed to 1170 children from 24 schools. Three research questions focused on differences between mean parental responses as they related to the inclusion and disability status of the parent's child. Results from the 270 respondents indicated that parents with disabled children had more favorable opinions about inclusion than did those with nondisabled children. Parents with included children were more favorable toward inclusion than were parents whose children were not included. Parents with included disabled children were more accepting of inclusion than were those with nondisabled children in inclusive settings. Parents' answers differed depending on the type of disability being included. Regardless of their child's disability or inclusion status, the ranking for disability types from most acceptable for inclusion to least acceptable were: social, sensory, motor, academic and behavioral. Results across types of questions, including questions relating to acceptance and general inclusion issues, indicated consistently more favorable opinions of parents with disabled children, included children and disabled children in inclusive classes. Two additional research questions examined parental responses as they related to demographic characteristics of the parents and of the schools their children attended. Analysis of Variance found only one significant main effect for any parental demographic variable. This difference was for the number of parents' elementary children when comparing parents with and without disabled children. The only significant main effects of demographics of schools the parents' children attended were for the area of the county and for schools with differing percentages of severely disabled students when comparing responses of parents with disabled and nondisabled children. For all research questions, tests indicated low effect sizes and moderate to high power levels. These results, and the fact that means for all groups were in the middle range of response choices, indicate that there may be little practical significance to the overall results. Further studies should investigate the trends found in this study. ^

Earnings management using estimates and the timing of adoption of accounting standards: An empirical examination of pensions

This study investigates the relationship between adoption timing of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards 87 and earnings management after adoption. Earnings management, defined consistent with Schipper (1989), is tested through hypotheses using (1) a portfolio approach and (2) pension rates. One Hypothesis uses a Modified Jones (1991) Model as a proxy for discretionary accruals and the other uses pension rate estimates.^ Statistically significant relationships are found between adoption timing and (1) discretionary accruals and (2) estimated rate-of-return (ROR) on pension plan assets. Early adopting firms tend to have lower discretionary accruals after adoption than on-time adopters. They also tend to use higher ROR estimates which are not supported by higher actual returns. Thus, while early adopters may be using ROR to manage income, this tends to not result in higher discretionary accruals. ^

Consumer (dis)satisfaction response to disconfirmation: An examination of the form and the underlying process

The purpose of this dissertation was to examine the form of the consumer satisfaction/dissatisfaction (CS/D) response to disconfirmation. In addition, the cognitive and affective processes underlying the response were also explored. ^ Respondents were provided with information from a prior market research study about a new brand of printer that was being tested. This market research information helped set prior expectations regarding the print quality. Subjects were randomly assigned to an experimental condition that manipulated prior expectations to be either positive or negative. Respondents were then provided with printouts that had performance quality that was either worse (negative disconfirmation) or better (positive disconfirmation) than the prior expectations. In other words, for each level of expectation, respondents were assigned to either positive or negative disconfirmation condition. Subjects were also randomly assigned to a condition of either a high or low level of outcome involvement. ^ Analyses of variance indicated that positive disconfirmation led to a more intense CS/D response than negative disconfirmation, even though there was no significant difference in the intensity for positive and negative disconfirmation. Intensity of CS/D was measured by the distance of the CS/D rating from the midpoint of the scale. The study also found that although outcome involvement did not influence the polarity of the CS/D response, the more direct measures of processing involvement such as the subjects' concentration, attention and care in evaluating the printout did have a significant positive effect on CS/D intensity. ^ Analyses of covariance also indicated that the relationship between the intensity of the CS/D response and the intensity of the disconfirmation was mediated by the intensity of affective responses. Positive disconfirmation led to more intense affective responses than negative disconfirmation. ^

Clash of identities in South Florida: An examination of the complexity of racial and national identity and their impact on ethnic solidarity between black Americans and Jamaicans

Immigrants from the West Indies and other nations challenge the simple United States dichotomy of blacks versus whites. Many apparently black Caribbean immigrants proclaim that they did not know they were “black” until they arrived in the U.S. They seek to maintain their national identity and resist identity and solidarity with Black Americans. In response, many Black Americans respond that the immigrants are simply being naive, that U.S. society demands simple racial identity. Regardless of one's self-identity and personal history, in the U.S., if you look black, you are black, was their thinking. ^ This study examines the contemporary struggle of identity and solidarity among and between Black Americans and Jamaicans living in South Florida (Broward and Miami-Dade counties). Even though the primary focus of this study is to examine the relationship between Black Americans and Jamaicans, other West Indian nationals will be addressed more generally. The primary research problem of this study is to determine why the existence of common ancestry and physical traits are insufficient for an assumption of ethnic solidarity between Black Americans and Jamaicans. ^ In examining this problem, I felt that depth rather than breadth would provide insight into the current state of polarization between Black Americans and Jamaicans. To this end, a qualitative study was designed. A non-random snowball sample consisting of forty-seven informants was selected for this study. Realizing that such a technique presents problems with generalizations beyond the sample, this approach was, nonetheless, the most suitable for the current research problem. One of the initial challenges of this research was the use of the label “black” in discussing Caribbean immigrants. Unlike America, where distinctions based on skin color were at the bedrock of America's formation, this was not the case in the Caribbean. In the Caribbean skin color was an important marker as an indicator of class, rather than of race. Therefore, I refrained from using the label, “black Jamaicans,” but rather used Jamaicans throughout. ^

Understanding the cycle of violence: An examination of bully and victim social roles in early childhood

The purpose of this study was to assess the prevalence of bullying and victimization in a metropolitan area. A cross-sectional study with kindergarten (n = 127) and first grade (n = 126) children was conducted in two Miami-Dade County Public Schools and three private schools in the same area. Bullying and victimization behavior and social acceptance were assessed through peer nomination and the mental health outcomes of depression and anxiety were assessed through children's self-report. Teachers and parents also completed a social behavior scale for each child. Three areas of analyses were conducted pertaining to membership classification of social roles and the social acceptance and mental health outcomes associated with those roles, reporter agreement within the social roles, and the psychometric properties of the Childhood Social Behavior Scale. Results showed an overall negative pattern of adjustment for children identified as a member of any of the negative social roles. Also, the results support a new analytic approach to the investigation of social roles. The implication of these findings for early identification, social policy, and effective prevention strategies are discussed. ^

State legislative term limits and the law of unintended consequences: An examination of member behavior, power structures, and legislative organization in Florida

The implementation of term limits on state legislators has provided a wealth of data for study. Florida, the second largest state in the Union with term limits, has not been comprehensively studied. This research examines the effects of term limits on electoral competition, member composition, legislator career paths, legislative leadership, and intra- and inter-governmental influences on Florida's legislature. This study looks at the Florida legislature from 1992 when term limits were enacted through 2004, three electoral cycles in which term limits have been in effect. This study uses both quantitative and qualitative data where appropriate. Electoral data is used to assess electoral and demographic effects, as well as member career trajectories. Interview data with current and former legislators, lobbyists, and executive branch officials is used to analyze both changes in legislative organization and intra- and inter-governmental influences on the legislative process. Term limits has only created greater competition when a legislative seat opens and has actually created a greater advantage for incumbents. Women and minorities have only made minimal gains in winning seats post-term limits. Newly elected legislators are not political novices with a vast majority having previous elective experience. Leadership is more centralized under term limits and the Senate has gained an advantage over the more inexperienced House. Lastly, the influence of staff, lobbyists, and most importantly, the governor has greatly increased under term limits. This research finds that term limits have not produced the consequences that proponents had envisioned.^

Adaptation in knowledge-based teams: An examination of team composition, leader sensegiving, and cognitive, behavioral, and motivational mechanisms

Organizations are increasingly relying on teams to do the work that has traditionally been done by individuals. At the same time, the environments in which these organizations and teams operate have been becoming progressively more complex and uncertain. These trends raise important questions about the factors that enable teams to adapt. In response to these questions, the current study sought to identify the cognitive, behavioral, and motivational processes and emergent states that promote a team's adaptation to unforeseen changes and novel events, and the team compositional characteristics and leadership processes that enabled these processes and emergent states. Two hundred twenty two undergraduate students from a large Southeastern University composed 74 3-person teams, and participated in a computerized decision-making simulation where each team formed the governing body (i.e., Mayor's cabinet) for two separate simulated cities, and made strategic decisions about city operations. Participants were randomly assigned to one of three roles, distributing expertise and creating mutual interdependence. External team leader sensegiving was manipulated through video recorded communications from an external team leader. Results indicate that team cognitive ability, achievement striving, and psychological collectivism, as well as external team leader sensegiving, were all related to the similarity and quality of team members' strategy-focused mental models (cognitive emergent states), and to the amount of information sharing among members (behavioral process). In turn, teams with more similar and higher quality mental models, and who shared greater levels of information, were found to have a greater ability to react and adapt to environmental changes, and to have greater levels of decision-making effectiveness. Results indicate a pattern of relationships consistent with hypotheses, and have important implications for organizations and knowledge-based teams charged with management responsibilities. Organizations should staff teams with the compositional characteristics that enable the development of similar and high quality mental models, and that promote information sharing among teammates. Similarly, organizations which train and develop leaders to engage in sensegiving behaviors enable team adaptability and promote enhanced decision-making effectiveness when faced with unforeseen changes and novel situations.

An examination of Lotka's law in the field of Library and Information Studies

The purpose of this study was to test Lotka’s law of scientific publication productivity using the methodology outlined by Pao (1985), in the field of Library and Information Studies (LIS). Lotka’s law has been sporadically tested in the field over the past 30+ years, but the results of these studies are inconclusive due to the varying methods employed by the researchers. ^ A data set of 1,856 citations that were found using the ISI Web of Knowledge databases were studied. The values of n and c were calculated to be 2.1 and 0.6418 (64.18%) respectively. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) one sample goodness-of-fit test was conducted at the 0.10 level of significance. The Dmax value is 0.022758 and the calculated critical value is 0.026562. It was determined that the null hypothesis stating that there is no difference in the observed distribution of publications and the distribution obtained using Lotka’s and Pao’s procedure could not be rejected. ^ This study finds that literature in the field of Library and Information Studies does conform to Lotka’s law with reliable results. As result, Lotka’s law can be used in LIS as a standardized means of measuring author publication productivity which will lead to findings that are comparable on many levels (e.g., department, institution, national). Lotka’s law can be employed as an empirically proven analytical tool to establish publication productivity benchmarks for faculty and faculty librarians. Recommendations for further study include (a) exploring the characteristics of the high and low producers; (b) finding a way to successfully account for collaborative contributions in the formula; and, (c) a detailed study of institutional policies concerning publication productivity and its impact on the appointment, tenure and promotion process of academic librarians. ^

Examination of the impact of personality, social, and cognitive factors on the co-occurrence of health risk behaviors among multi-problem youth: The utility of an integrative framework

Research has identified a number of putative risk factors that places adolescents at incrementally higher risk for involvement in alcohol and other drug (AOD) use and sexual risk behaviors (SRBs). Such factors include personality characteristics such as sensation-seeking, cognitive factors such as positive expectancies and inhibition conflict as well as peer norm processes. The current study was guided by a conceptual perspective that support the notion that an integrative framework that includes multi-level factors has significant explanatory value for understanding processes associated with the co-occurrence of AOD use and sexual risk behavior outcomes. This study evaluated simultaneously the mediating role of AOD-sex related expectancies and inhibition conflict on antecedents of AOD use and SRBs including sexual sensation-seeking and peer norms for condom use.^ The sample was drawn from the Enhancing My Personal Options While Evaluating Risk (EMPOWER: Jonathan Tubman, PI), data set (N = 396; aged 12-18 years). Measures used in the study included Sexual Sensation-Seeking Scale, Inhibition Conflict for Condom Use, Risky Sex Scale. All relevant measures had well-documented psychometric properties. A global assessment of alcohol, drug use and sexual risk behaviors was used.^ Results demonstrated that AOD-sex related expectancies mediated the influence of sexual sensation-seeking on the co-occurrence of alcohol and other drug use and sexual risk behaviors. The evaluation of the integrative model also revealed that sexual sensation-seeking was positively associated with peer norms for condom use. Also, peer norms predicted inhibition conflict among this sample of multi-problem youth. ^ This dissertation research identified mechanisms of risk and protection associated with the co-occurrence of AOD use and SRBs among a multi-problem sample of adolescents receiving treatment for alcohol or drug use and related problems. This study is informative for adolescent-serving programs that address those individual and contextual characteristics that enhance treatment efficacy and effectiveness among adolescents receiving substance use and related problems services.^